MinBane

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Archive for the tag “Debt”

Opinion: Sankara’s warning on the odious debt lent to the continent… is relevant today

Sometimes we need an reminder, that some powers and some states doesn’t come with the best intentions or with a real helping hand. If it is the famous white elephants or the other giant aid initiatives that doesn’t amount to anything. However, what is now at stake is for instance a lot African states and their loans to China. The Chinese has collateral in either ports, state owned enterprises or ability to directly extract the needed resources the current state with huge loans has. This is their trap and Sankara warned about this, just like the French, British and Americans has done in the past too. Nothing new under the sun, just new methods to get ahead.

What I am quoting is a speech done to the OAU in 1987, just a few months before his assassination. Therefore, the words and warnings seems more important. As in our time, the leaders of today is recycling the ills of the past. They are doing it out of greed and in the end, the people and the citizens will suffer. Not the multi-national corporations, not the state itself, but the public whose disregarded and have to reinvent money.

The wise words of Sankara:

We believe analysis of the debt should begin with its roots. The roots of the debt go back to the beginning of colonialism. Those who lent us the money were those who colonized us. They were the same people who ran our states and our economies. It was the colonizers who put Africa into debt to the financiers—their brothers and cousins. This debt has nothing to do with us. That’s why we cannot pay for it. The debt is another form of neocolonialism, one in which the colonialists have transformed themselves into technical assistants. Actually, it would be more accurate to say technical assassins. They’re the ones who advised us on sources of financing, on underwriters of loans. As if there were men whose loans are enough to create development in other people’s countries. These underwriters were recommended to us, suggested to us. They gave us enticing financial documents and presentations. We took on loans of fifty years, sixty years, and even longer. That is, we were led to commit our peoples for fifty years and more. The debt in its present form is a cleverly organized reconquest of Africa under which our growth and development are regulated by stages an norms totally alien to us. It is a reconquest that turns each of us into a financial slave—or just plain slave—of those who had the opportunity, the craftiness, the deceitfulness to invest funds in our countries that we are obliged to repay. Some tell us to pay the debt. This is not a moral question. Paying or not paying is not a question of so-called honor at all” (Thomas Sankara – Speech given at the African Unity Organisation Conference, Addis Ababa, July 29, 1987).

Let us not forgot the lessons of the past, as we in the present is continuing a cycle of recycling debt, growing debt and cycles of repayment schemes, which will only make the next generation suffer. If not, when the grace period hits and the state doesn’t have a big enough tax-base or revenue. It defaults and has to give away extraction licenses, state owned enterprises and other vital transport infrastructure like ports and airports. Because, that what is happening.

This is happening in our time. The world is looking, but nothing is getting done. Peace.

President Lungu is making Zambia a Chinese debt-slave!

We can just wonder how and why these Executives, these Presidents are taking these high-risked loans on Infrastructure projects and other vanity institutions, without considering the implications, the cost of interests and the real time cost of the projects as a whole. As they are topping off one more loan with another. Creating a negative spiral and instead of gaining the income through proper taxations or donor aid. They are instead taking higher loans and hoping the future generations can pay it off. This while the Chinese government who borrows are awaiting return on investment and making sure the debt-slave, that they will repay their stocks and bonds, even as needed vital part of infrastructure, even mineral extractions if needed be.

There been warnings on the horizon that the aftermath of these jolly days loans would come to into the atmosphere. Now, that is a reality, as the Republic of Zambia are countering the Chinese and struggling to repay all the borrowed funds. It is really to the next level.

“Africa Confidential noted that although Finance Minister Margaret Mwanakatwe announced that all Chinese projects below 80 per cent completion would be halted, President Edgar Lungu told Chinese nationals that all projects would go ahead as planned. “The Zambian government is supposed to be contributing 15% of its own money to the Chinese-financed projects. Meeting this commitment is testing government finances to the limit and taking precedence over social expenditure. Even though Finance Minister Margaret Mwanakatwe pledged to halt all Chinese-backed projects that were less than 80% complete, on 11 July President Lungu publicly told Chinese officials in Lusaka that there would be ‘no disruption in the ongoing projects’ financed by China,” read the report.“Since President Edgar Lungu came to power, Zambia has signed off on at least US$8 billion in Chinese project finance. Over $5 bn. of this has not been added to the total because Zambia insists the money has not been disbursed, and more large loans are in the pipeline. Yet the finance ministry does not have the capacity, insiders say, to police, let alone stem, all the spending. In some cases, the financial penalties for halting disbursement on projects would outweigh the savings. Donor governments have offered technical assistance to bring the project debt mountain under control but have been rebuffed.”” (Lusaka Times – ‘China to take over ZESCO – Africa Confidential’ 04.09.2018).

When you read this and thinking, why did the President Lungu accept all this loans and didn’t he ensure that the state could arrange to pay it back somehow? Alternatively, did he just issue it without considering the implications, because he saw it as free money? Didn’t Lungu consider the refinancing and the costs of these loans?

Now there is reports that the Chinese will take certain infrastructure away from the Zambian government, as a way of repayment, an airport and even other things. That proves how dire the situation is, as the Chinese did the same in Sri Lanka and now does it Zambia. As it is proven, that if you don’t pay the bill-collector, something will be taken as collateral. That is evident in this case, as the rising debts and the spiral of negative sums are taking its toll. That because the President doesn’t care for the consequences and eats the defaulted debts.

Zungu is using the state to eat and the people are paying more, as they are working, but seeing the Chinese taking away their assets, because Zungu got “free” money to spend, while the results of these loans are not up to par. That is why this situation is dire. The costs are all put on the state, but the President don’t have to take any responsibility or care for the added costs. That is proven. Peace.

The sorry state of the nation of WaBenzi!

You are now entering into an alternative universe, where we have a nation called WaBenzi. Where the elites was eating of the state reserves, where the elite was there because of their connections with the political elite. A political elite made by patronage and nepotism. This political elite was made out a liberation battle done decades ago, either from a foreign force or from some dictator, whose legacy was murder of ethnic groups or even expelling others. The leader on top would be seen as a hero back in the day, but with lingering time, the party (the Movement) and the President would tarnish his own reputation for lingering on.

While that is happening, the written word is losing meaning in WaBenzi. Because the political are afraid of challenging the President and his party. They might have some newspapers, but their circulation isn’t on the basis for anyone outside many urban townships of the nation. Neither is the social media sites. The intelligence that has been leaked, has made the elite to shut-down, arrest and revoke the licenses of these media houses. Therefore, the media is careful and awaiting approval from the elite before publishing. They are careful with how they address the President and his movement. Because they don’t want to question his rule. At least not too much, because they don’t want to suffer. They got families to feed. Even if there is an inflation, even if the economy is in shambles. Even if the rising debt and lack of foreign exchange is hurting the economy.

The patronage is destroying the state, the lack of institutions that is meaningful is shown from anything from SIM-CARDs, or even as foolish as monitoring porn. The boards are busy bodies, while the state is eating the funds for the top-class. The state owned enterprises are giving away tenders to developers without any oversight of the contractors or their delivery. If this get public scrutiny, the President will offer them a new chance after a short suspension. Because someone he knows are eating of this plate.

In WaBenzi, the elite can get away with murders, they can get away with thefts and even land grabbing. As long as the State House is informed, it doesn’t matter if the house is a colonial masterpiece or a grand-farm. Everything can be taken, even evict whole villages for foreign investors, for factories which is promised on the land. The state can take away land for roads and for rail projects, even if the building is only on planning stage and not even the tenders of building it is open to the public. Therefore, if a garden estate for one of the elites is built there instead, it doesn’t matter. The elite of the Movement can do whatever they want.

The people of WaBenzi is so used, they are used that the President can what he wants and say whatever he wants. He can contradict himself, he does that weekly and yearly. If you followed the President. You know he talks against corruption, but let his ministers who is caught in international fraud walk around like nothing happen. The WaBenzi is so used to lied to, that their ignorance and lack of care is natural. They are tired and praying for the ending of the President. Because the President doesn’t plan to leave.

The WaBenzi are used to that the government talk about fair share of resources and development projects, even if the elite in West is getting more, than the Central, Eastern or Northern Regions. The Western has the best schools, the most Cabinet Members and the best infrastructure. The networks of hospitals and other needed government structures are there, but not in the others in that extent. The schools are decapitated, the police stations are unworthy shacks and the government offices for higher officers are looking like mansions for high-end business-men. The mayors and councilors are well-fed, the police-officers are beating on the public to get fed, the school-teachers are having side-jobs or even farming on the side. The civil servants are asking for kick-backs and fill their plate to do their civic duty, because the salary hasn’t risen in decades. If paid on time, it still would barely be enough for the rent of their home.

The hospital are lacking basics, politician of opposition parties are trying now and then to help out. They use their salaries to buy sheets, beds and even medicine. As the national medicine importer and delivery system is understaffed, lack preparation and even the tools to have enough medicine for all institutions. The lack of funding and governance is hurting the hospitals. As they cannot afford to pay their bills, as black-outs and lack of oxygen are common place.

The Electric company is run by private contractors and also private investments from abroad. The development of the energy companies and the plants are all based on either multi-national funding or possible foreign investments. These are done in random, while the different part of the sector is underfunded and also because of the issues from within, is overpriced, hard to get good rates on the electricity and also often blackouts. This hurts the industries, the public, who has to have generators and cannot trust the government run company to deliver enough and stable enough electricity.

The WaBenzi is hurt by the Western, little Elite whose eating of everyone’s plate. They are grabbing it all, while all part of society is hurting. They are not even caring about the Parliament, where the laws are rubber-stamped and secured in favor of the will of the President. The legislation is to favor his agenda and not the good-will of the people. The Elite is more busy securing tenders and their own future, than securing the better institution and society for the public.

The WaBenzi has strict laws on political gatherings, the laws are to secure that no-one will ever have the power or possibly can topple the President. No one should be able to create a protest or demonstrations that could take him down. He has the army and the police on his side. They are keeping people at bay, even invade the Parliament to get his will served. The Courts are listening to him and the orders are happening to his service. Opposition leaders can easily find themselves behind bars, the ones who voices against the Movement will easily get into trouble. That is the state of WaBenzi. Where the thieves and murders walk free and the opposition is the real criminals. Therefore, the trust in the Police and Security Organizations are not there. Because they are misusing their powers to arrest innocent people, activists and youths who are standing up against the President. He cannot manage that.

The government is usually fixing issues that doesn’t matter that much and making sure to make a stamp. Has some sort of campaigns, and making taxes on ordinary stuff, but not making sure the taxation is used properly. That is because the existence of the regime is because they feed the elite. The WaBenzi elite needs the President and the President needs the elite. The chronic patronage and nepotism combined with grand corruption is like daily. The Executives, the funds misused and the mismatch behind the use on programs and what is left to the public is staggering. The President claps his hands and gladly take his percentage of it too.

This is just a story about WaBenzi, how a country became a hostage of an elite that lives on the goodwill of the President. They are there and don’t want change, because they eat. Even if the people starve, even if they cheat on levels of poverty, even if the elite cheats on the amount of people living there and how many projects they have for development. The aid is still coming, the United Nations will still show up and pay for the supper of the poorest of the poor.

While this continues, the liberator who promised to never rig elections. The President has appointed and made sure the Commission who controls the elections are in his favor. The Election Laws are always amended and changed just before. So that the so-called opposition has another disadvantage. Not only that the state is busy giving away gifts to the public during rallies, even busing them to the stages if they have too. Paying off the popular musicians to perform and also pay-off journalists to write favorable coverage. The President is also busy paying the clan-leaders, the religious leadership and even some appointed leadership in the districts. They are getting cars and houses, as a token of their good work and making sure the President is elected again.

The President is also busy using the army and police to harass the opposition in the run-up to the election. Even make them illegal to make a point. The ministers and the Security Organization will defend it as constitutional and say the opposition are making war, not only campaigning. The President will use vile language and say people are fools if they trust anyone else. The Police will bar people, will be more into politics during campaigns, than actually doing police work. The Police will defend their monitoring and the micro-managing of the people. This is all to install fear and secure the President, that people will not really challenge the Presidency.

So after months of campaigning, the elections usually ends with days of tensions. While the Commissions are cooking the numbers, the ballots and the paper-trail, the police is busy chasing the opposition and the civil society. Offices are raided, the media are under attack, the internet is blocked and the observers are watching idly by, while silently saying the process has to move-on and electoral laws can be changed later. It is still progress for society. That WaBenzi had an election, even if it was rigged and the President took total control. He left nothing to coincidence. The public of WaBenzi was props to buy legitimacy for the Presidency, the Commission was another tool and the international observers was there. Just to secure the display of elections was shown. That people could que and wait in line before being registered to vote. Even if there was pre-ticked ballots. Even if the police officers was working and making sure the district got the right result. As the Police arrested people entering or even being party officials registered to be looking over the tally and getting copies from the return officers at the Polling Stations. That doesn’t matter. Because the result has to be in favor of the incumbent President in WaBenzi.

That is just WaBenzi, we are all happy that this what WaBenzi has to offer. This is what the WaBenzi gives of governance, of institutions and of lacking taxation without representation. We are all looking idly by, why the WaBenzi is taken for granted. The President knows this and lives on, happy and ready.

If you demonstrate or try to strike, he will catch and make a treacherous human being, because no one has the power to question the power of the army and the liberation. Even if the liberator only liberated himself and his cronies. The rest has to be hostages in the President’s will and President’s vision. That is the decision of the President, who can get away with anything and no-one cares. Therefore, the nation of WaBenzi is misused and the people are too. Every single day. Peace

President Kenyatta orders that imports of Sugar and Milk Powder to be tariff free until August 2017, who in the Jubilee will eat the spoils?

President Uhuru Kenyatta finally found a solution to the rising the prices and inflation on basic foods. Therefore on the day there is 30,000 tons Sugar coming in at Mombasa this morning.

This after the first Executive Order of Kenyatta this year said: “That the drought and the famine in parts of Kenya is a national disaster, duty shall not be payable for the following items- 

(a) Sugar imported by any person, with effect from the date of Notice to the 31st August, 2017; and

(b) nine thousand tonnes of milk powder imported by milk processors, with the authority of the Kenya Dairy Board, with effect from the date of this Notice to the 31st August, 2017 Dated the 11th May 2017” (The Kenya Gazette, Vol. CXIX – No. 62, Nairobi, 12th May 2017).

So as this happens, you can wonder if the Sugar millers and Sugar exporters are connected with the government. Since the 30,000 tons just appear on the day after the gazette. That means, someone knew about the plans of the government and let it happen. It isn’t just appearing from the sky, that a holy angel sends 30,000 tons of sugar to Kenya and the Port of Mombasa on the day after the Executive Order was signed and than relieved to the public by Cabinet Secretary for the National Treasury Henry Rotich. He is just a useful CS, who certainly will have his pieces of deliverance of all the duty free goods.

That the government, close connections with the Jubilee government and the Sugar cartels will surely gain profits on these exported foods. This been in a country where the tariffs has been a 100% on Sugar and added VAT 16 %. Therefore, this reactions seem to be a ploy to earn monies on gullible people and think that the people will take it as goodwill. This is happening at the same time, as the prices on sugar is still on a two year low worldwide. President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto, might think the Kenyans doesn’t see through this. But they should question the companies, the boats and who orders the duty free goods to Kenya from today and until 31st August.

Like who earns the profits on the sugar and the milk powder in these months. They are clearly planning it and not only for the famine and drought. But for sole purpose of gaining massive amount of funds in the period of campaigning. This just appearing and ordered in the critical time. The Jubilee government doesn’t know how to be subtle. Can wonder if any of the corporations and importing businesses owned by the Kenyatta’s or Ruto’s would benefit from this. I wouldn’t be shocked, neither if anyone else of the Jubilee government got a payday and huge amount of Bob’s in their accounts. Peace.

The law: 

Kenya: At the moment, Sugar is not sweet for Jubilee!

The prices of Sugar in Kenya is special experiment, as the taxation on imports of sugar is a 100% and also 16% VAT on the sugar imported. Secondly, the industry is controlled by the state, there been talk of privatization of millers owned and the Kenya Sugar Board who regulate the industry. As well as the Ministry of Agriculture is making sure the output of the farmers are corrected.

Therefore, as the prices worldwide is sinking and going-low, the prices of sugar are going up. This is happening in the months right before election time.

The government must know the industry is struggling as the only private miller Mumias are again on a downward spiral:  Already, the miller has been closed for three months. According to managing director Errol Johnson the closure was meant to fix equipment, which had contributed to the company’s poor performance due to inconsistent maintenance. The closure from April 11 came barely a month after the cash-strapped miller received Sh239 million from the government, as part of the bailout strategy” (BiznaKenya, 2017).

That the Mumias miller proving the big-problems in the Sugar industry, as it has been evident for years. The agricultural output and yields haven’t been the issue alone, it is denial of the state to figure out working changes to the millers, the import and also control it has over it. That the government has the oversight and the insight to the issues, are clearly that the Jubilee haven’t been interested in-changing it, as the benefit of this system. Therefore, President Kenyatta and Deputy President Ruto hasn’t touched it or done anything else than bailing out Mumias on the last dive of the company. Therefore, the reports shown here. Proves the initial factors to the grand issues and why the prices are sky-rocketing, while the international prices are falling. Take a look!

Barriers for Sugar Productions:

Sugar milling is a high fixed cost business requiring substantial economies of scale in cane crushed to break-even” (…) “Existing relationships of patronage between governments and large milling companies serve to align the incentives of government and millers such that new entrants would find it difficult to compete with incumbents and obtain the same benefits” (Chisanga, Gathiaka, Onyancha & Vilakazi, P: 12, 2014).

Government ownership in the sector remains large, despite higher relative efficiency in the private sector and long term plans for privatization. While some privatization has taken place over the past decade, government-controlled factories held a 37 percent production share, with additional non-controlling shares in other firms. Part of the argument in favor of privatization is the relative efficiency of production in private mills over those controlled by the government” (…) “The local sugar milling market is quite concentrated, and combined with the barriers to trade this suggests that the largest players have significant power over prices. Mumias, the largest sugar company, had a market share of 38 percent of domestically produced sugar in 2011, lower than its typical market share due to cane shortages. Combined with the government-controlled share of the industry, this implies that essentially two entities control at least 75 percent of local production. The shares of local producers in domestic market sales vary quite widely depending on the period, as the volume of imports fluctuates a great deal. For example, Kenya Sugar Board data from the first two quarters of 2012 show importswere approximately 33% of local production” (Argent & Begazo, P: 5-6, 2015).

Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, a government (Jubilee) body, reports that 2.2 million Micro Small and Medium Enterprises (MSME) have closed shop in kenya over the last five years. These are some of the reasons that inform our opposition to Jubilee. Personally, I think Uhuru and Ruto are fine Kenyans; wonderful husband to their spouses; incredible fathers to their children; and great benefactors to their elite friends, but have terribly failed in the duties of the office of the presidency” (…) “All sectors of Kenyan economy has been negatively affected by the floods of cheap imports, brought into kenya by unscrupulous businessmen connected to those in power, having unbridled freedom to import anything of their choice without paying taxes: From sugar industry; to textile; to agriculture, denying kenya the much needed revenue for development. Over the weekends, the leaders behave like Frank Lucas, donating part of the proceeds from these imports to the same societies they are killing by giving out these import certificates” (Sadat, 2017).

That the government haven’t made sure the industry and financial markets been sufficient is proven with the macro problems in Kenya. The import sanctions together with the stronghold control of certain millers and Kenya Sugar Board, there are patronage and cartels that sets the prices and the payments for the yields. Together with the storage and cane production that is initial to the issues that are there today. That President Kenyatta and DP Ruto hasn’t taken charge and paid amends is the reason for the prices at this point. That the Sugar Barons, Sugar Cartels and Sugar Companies are connected with government is understood as the politicians are taking handouts from them as well.

As the COFEK open letter to Kenyatta said so well and I will end with:

No one in your government can categorically state how much stocks are being held in the strategic grain reserves. Casual talk of wanting quality of the same maize, from the millers lobby, heightens speculation that your government is unwilling to walk the talk on cutting the cost of living. As things stand, it is fair to say that your Government has taken a holiday on consumer protection as cartels take over the all-important food security sector. It follows that your government, is therefore, in breach of Article 46 of the Constitution you swore to protect. Needless to mention, it is a tall order for you to protect and uphold the sovereignty, integrity and dignity of the people of Kenya if they remain hungry – with a single or no meal at all, thanks to the high cost of living. Your government supposedly offers huge subsidies to farmers through farm inputs like fertilizers which do not get to them. It’s the middlemen and cartels who end up smiling to the bank as farmers toil in vain” (COFEK, 2017).

Peace.

Reference:

Argent, Jonathan & Begazo, Tania – ‘Competition in Kenyan Markets and Its Impact on Income and Poverty – A Case Study on Sugar and Maize’ (January 2015)

BiznaKenya – ‘Mumias Sugar to close indefinitely over cash problems’ (08.05.2017) link:https://biznakenya.com/mumias-sugar-close-indefinitely-cash-problems/

Chisanga, Brian; Gathiaka, John; Nguruse, George; Onyancha, Stellah & Vilakazi, Thando – ‘Competition in the regional sugar sector: the case of Kenya, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia – Draft paper for presentation at pre-ICN conference, (22 April 2014)

Consumers Federation of Kenya (COFEK) – ‘Cofek open letter to Uhuru Kenyatta on high cost of living’ (02.05.2017) link: http://www.cofek.co.ke/index.php/news-and-media/1718-cofek-open-letter-to-uhuru-kenyatta-on-high-cost-of-living?showall=&start=1

Sadat, Anwar – ‘REVEALED: WHY The ECONOMY is Almost COLLAPSING Under Uhuru Jubilee Regime, GoK’s Kenya Bureau of STATISTICS Exposes Shocking Numbers’ (07.05.2017) link: https://www.kenya-today.com/opinion/revealed-economy-almost-collapsing-uhuru-jubilee-regime-government-body-kenya-bureau-statistics-exposes-shocking-numbers

Confidential reports stern warnings about the Italian national bank debt ratio and possible damaging scenarios when restructuring it!

italianbank

The Astellon Capital Partners report on the Italian nation debt is troublesome, as the reports are indicating troubled waters ahead for controlling the debt and repayment on the defaulted loans. This will create other higher issues than only the Greek debt and interest-rates from Brussels and Berlin. The Italian and Rome problem will cause monetary effects for all of Europe, as the debt are like his:

“1980 –1995: Debt / GDP increased by 64%, due to high interest rates levied by Bank of Italy to fight inflation and promote exchange rate stability of Lira within European Monetary System, precursor to the Eurozone” (…)”1995 –2015: Debt / GDP increased by 11%, due entirely to debt servicing costs as Italy ran a primary fiscal surplus over this period” (Astellon Capital Partners, P: 2, 2017).

The continued pressure of the Italian debt is showed with the average primary balance since 1995 have been 2, 1% and the average interest costs of the GDP have been 5, 5%. “Italy among the most fiscally sound member states in the Eurozone, yet also among the most burdened by interest costs” (Astellon Capital Partners, P: 3, 2017).

These numbers are not really positive at all, as the high interest rate by the Bank of Italy together with the rise of debt servicing that increased 11% alone in a decade. That the Italian state have the amount of costs of interests amounting to 5,5% says lots of the economic pressure on the budgets and fiscal policies within the government structures. This does not like a prosperous and strong economic situation.

The report continues with more worrying numbers that the Italian labour costs are 11% higher than rest of the EU average. Certainly also that the average productivity of the labour are 12% lower than the Eurozone average. So you got higher paid workers that work less, which also isn’t strengthening the economy.

That the Italians bank’s they have deflated badly loans that has gone from under 5% in 2005 to the running value of close to 15% in 2016. So that the European Central Bank have bought into the government debt issuance: “2014 –2019: At current government debt net issuance rates and announced QE levels, ECB will have been responsible for financing 100% of Italy’s deficits from 2014 –2019”. This is if the debt is: “Assumes €50bn annual run-rate of government net debt issuance” (Astellon Capital Partners, P: 6, 2017). That is a hefty sum when considering all the other fiscal issues that already put forward.

“Substantial increase in non-bank net purchases of Italian debt required ECB and Italian Banks acquired 88% of government debt net issuance since 2008. Over next six years non-banks will need to increase purchase activity to 7x that of past nine years” (Astellon Capital Partners, P: 7, 2017). So a nation that struggles with high paid performance with low productivity are suddenly needed to get the workforce to 7 times higher purchase activity, meaning the production and selling has to increase seven-fold if the state should have ability to sustain the defaulted debt that has increased and the debt the ECB has bought. Together with the Italian Bank gold-reserve which is lower than the stated and needed figures to be sufficient. The bank has gold-reserves by today’s value about €100bn, but by the ECB agreement need to collateralised that needs to be up to €350bn. That the report claims to be only 25%; while the assets are dwindling too and that is also worrying!

The Assets have from 2011 gone from being around 0% or none, to 2016 when the assets of the Italian bank is now in 2016 -20%. Because this have come a German proposal to avoid an new Argentine Bank collapse case. As the Italian Bank are required independent assessments of debt sustainability.

The great risks for Italy and the Italian republic are these scenarios. Like the hedge funds can buy into with high risks and yields through BTP yields during the 2016-2017. Second scenario in 2018 is that the ECB or European Central Bank will be a marginal buyer of the government bonds and buying debts. Third scenario is that the Italian Banks becoming net-sellers and therefore losing their assets with less of profits in the 2016-2017. Last scenario is unilateral re-profiling or re-domination or some form of Greek-Haircuts by 2017-2018, that means trade-offs and cutting taxes to try to revamp the economy (Astellon Capital Partners, P: 21, 2017).

With these numbers and situation, there are certain men in ECB and in Italy that is worried. The strength and sovereign nation of Italy has to find ways of restructuring the debt and assets. What is certain is that the debtors cannot take it easy on this one. The Italian debts and reserves are worrying as the debt has to restructure and the focus on how the Italian republic has to get more productivity and create more production so the taxes and debt per GDP can go down. This will be painful for the Italian state and their government institutions, together with all the debt and bad-debt that the state has to cover, because the banks cannot afford to lose all of these fiscal funds. There have to be a revolution of something if the Italian republic and its workforce are able to 7 times higher purchase activity. That will not come easy and how they will ever achieve that must be by a unicorn arriving and spinning the Fiat wheels of Torino more than ever before; even getting the world more hooked on Milan fashion design or Illy coffee. Peace.

Reference:

Astellon Capital Partners – ‘Q1 2017 Notes No. 24 – Ciao a tutti: An orderly restructuring of Italian debt’

#Scambailouts; Moses Musinguzi Vs. Bailed Out Companies on Good Governance (29.07.2016)

Petition 28.07.2016 P1Petition 28.07.2016 P2Petition 28.07.2016 P3Petition 28.07.2016 P4

Seemingly the Ugandan Government bailing-out corporations… or is it way of Mzee to give monies to his loyal cronies?

Scambailouts Uganda

There are talks of bailing out businesses or corporations in Uganda, as the failing; it is not only the Republic of Uganda or the Government of Uganda is striking more and more debt to fulfil the budgets. As that happens, the businesses together with Ugandan Banks are sustaining investments and fiscal monetary situation for industries and businesses; something that is occurring with a steady pace.

The Steady Progress from the National Resistance Movement comes with a price of loyalty of the cronies and the elite; that happen to be fundraising for the NRM-O before the General Election of 2016 and building the famous “NRM-House”, for some strange reason never sees the light of day. Dwindling away in T-Shirt Money and other ways of funding the expensive campaign of ruling regime.

Here is some of the companies and some information on them. There are many more, but this shows certain levels of questions and also, the needed for funding should be gone, except if the owners have allegiance to the NRM-Regime. So it seems like the Executive wants them to have debt and all of a sudden he needs to save them.

Shumuk

Shumuk Aluminium who has failed on loans; these loans are Shs. 8.2bn to DFCU Bank, Shs. 6.6bn to Baroda Bank and Shs. 17bn to Crane Bank. The Shumuk Group have been an industrial manufacture that has made everything from steel to plastic bottles in Uganda since 1984. That is now troubled in debt, has also gotten donor-aid or grants through Danish Aid in 2008 on the level of USD 170.102 and in 2006 a total USD 167.940.; Still with time been able to get unsustainable, really?

Roofing Steel Mines have failed loans; Shs. 201bn to IFC and Shs. 8bn to Diamond Trust Bank. Company’s assets supposed to be Shs. 15bn. It’s a company that has existing since 1994. “Mr. Sikander Lalani, Roofings Group has recently completed its ambitious expansion plan by commissioning Roofings Rolling Mills (RRM) limited, a Ugx320 billion(US$127 million) mega project which is set to change the face of steel manufacturing in the East African Region. This state of the art complex is located in Kampala Industrial Business Park, Namanve” (Constructionreviewonline.com, 2013). In 2014: “Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi and his wife Jacqueline were the chief guests at the Serena event, hailing the Lalani family for creating jobs for Ugandans in their business empire and contributing to economic development of Uganda” (Scoop.co.ug, 24.01.2014). Apparently now the business of Lalani is creating a debt issue and not jobs.

BM Steel has debt of Shs. 66bn. President Museveni said this about the company in the 2015: “The recycled steel that is being produced by Casements, Roofings, Tembo Steel, BM Steel (Mwebesa), Modern Steel etc. cannot be used for very high-rise buildings, hydro-power dams etc. It does not have that strength” (Museveni, 29.04.2015). With this in mind the quality of the steel is low, but their debt is still raising, and the same apparently with Roofing as well, who has debt. Worrying sign?

Salim Selah NAPIL

Namunkekera Agro Processing Industries Ltd (NAPIL) has an outstanding debt of Shs. 4.8bn to the Uganda Development Bank. It was incorporated 25.06.2007. It is a business run by the family member of President Museveni, General Salim Selah. In 2015 Gen. Selah said this: “made these remarks as he toured 40 agriculture projects under the umbrella of Namunkekera Agro Processing Industries Limited (NAPIL) in Kapeeka” (NTV Uganda, 20.03.2015). So the Government will on this bail-out the family member for his miscalculation on the Agricultural investment.

Job Coffee got a debt of Shs. 21.3bn to Stanbic Bank. In the month of September 2014 number 7 exporters from Uganda, with 7,960 bags of coffee. Total market share of 2013/2014 we’re 1.97%. What has happen since is not easy to know, but what is certain is that they have accumulated debt.

Simba Group owned by Patrick Bitature has debts of Shs. 210bn. In 2012 Forbes wrote this about him: “Bitature is the founder and chairman of Simba Telecom, East Africa’s largest mobile phone retailer with over 100 modern retail outlets in Uganda, Tanzania and Kenya Telecom. The company is also the largest mobile phone airtime distributor in the region. Bitature owns Protea Hotels Kampala, a 5-star hotel located in the upmarket suburb of Kololo in Kampala. He is also chairs the Uganda Investment Authority and Umeme, an energy distribution firm which is gearing up for an IPO on the Uganda Stock Exchange” (Nsehe, 06.11.2012). In 2015 in the African Report said this: “When asked about his net worth, he says: “That I don’t talk about. I have shares in listed companies in London, Johannesburg and here. The share prices keep changing. All I know is that I have a portfolio of different companies.” He says Simba Group employs more than 1,700 people” (Mbanga, 19.06.2015). Certainly he should talk about his net-worth now as his being bailed-out in Uganda, maybe he should sell some of the companies in London and Johannesburg, if he is as rich as that or maybe it is just big-talk?

Freedom City

Grapes Construction has a debt of Shs. 100bn to Stanbic Bank. Who owns the Freedom City Mall in Kampala; The owner of Grapes Construction is subsidiary of Grapes Group who is owned by John Ssebalamu. In 2014 he had an issue with the Kenyan renter at the mall of the Company UCHUMI: “At the end of last year, it emerged that Ssebalamu the owner of Freedom City had sued UCHUMI for failure to pay him arrears amounting to over Shs340million” (Red Pepper, 2014). In 2015 he had monies to spend on the NRM: “John Ssebalamu shs100M”. This Shs. 100m was going to build the NRM House, so the coins given seems to give back profits. (Xclusive.co.ug, 28.06.2015).

Sojovalo Hotel has debt of Shs. 8.3bn to the Kenya Commercial Bank. The owner William George Kajoba also gave Shs 50M to the NRM House(Xclusive.co.ug, 28.06.2015). So with this new project from the government, the pledge in 2015 gave a hand back to the businessman and his Hotel close to the Kabaka in Kampala.

Krone Limited Uganda

Krone Uganda Limited owes Shs. 2.5bn to the Tropical Bank; the business has 3.000 empolyees. Krone Uganda Ltd is the largest miner and exporter of wolfram (tungsten). In the Daily Monitor in 2015, this was written about the company: “the ministry refused to allow them export three containers – 20 metric tons of wolfram worth about Shs1.4 billion ($450,000) that is stuck in various warehouses. They are charged Shs640, 000 ($200) every day as “demurrage” (charges that the charterer pays to the ship-owner for its extra use of the vessel) since February” (Musisi, 18.07.2015). So the government own policy on mining and Value-Added Producing is the reason behind the debt growth of Krone Uganda Limited.

MS Frank Ssonko Ltd owes Shs3.5bn to the Crane Bank, but got assets worth Shs. 9.9bn. Another one is Ahmed Zziwa owes Shs. 10bn, but has assets worth Shs. 20bn. Ahmed Zziwa are the owner of Anglo Fabric (Bolton) limited who imports and sells soap in Uganda. Steven Mukasa owes Shs. 10bn. While having Shs. 40bn in assets. Even owning land on Makerere University, at the level of 8 Acres and even at one point was putting Prof. Baryamureba for stealing Shs. 140m of building material from him in 2010. So he must be NRM guy!

I hope this was enough for now. Not to talk about too much tax-money given away in the name of saving them, instead of making the rich even richer! Peace.

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