Bank of Uganda (BoU): Government has not failed to pay Bank of Uganda (20.09.2022)

The Government own 11 trillion shillings to the Bank of Uganda [and out of that 3 trillion shillings in advances from the last financial year!]

The National Resistance Movement (NRM) are ruining the economy. They have a deficit financing that is revealing to deplete all funds and all sources of revenue. That’s why in the Leader of Opposition statement published on the 13th September 2022. The Leader of Opposition Mathias Mpuuga MP in his statement is showing a staggering issue of fiscal nature.

The Government of Uganda (GoU) or the National Resistance Movement (NRM) are now owning 11 trillion shillings. Out of those 11 trillion shillings, there is 3,03 trillion shillings it got in outstanding advances in the Financial Year of 2021/2022. Because of this, the Government of Uganda lacks fiscal funds to repay their own National Bank, the Bank of Uganda. It has taken money from one post to cover other posts, in advance, but it has no plan of returning these advances.

The addition trouble with this is that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has stopped releasing funds or loans to the Government of Uganda until these advances are paid. That is again hurting the funding of the Government and the operational funds of the state. Since the IMF will not cover the deficits or the lack of funds in the GoU. The GoU is running so low that it’s not able to repay their own advances, which it created from the BoU.

This just shows how dire things are… this is only talk of 3,03 trillion shillings. The GoU budgeted itself with a 25,78 trillion shillings in domestic revenue in the budget of FY 2022/23, but we can wonder if the GoU has any of funds to recover or to spend on the advances in question.

If you wonder what mismanagement and how destructive a debt-cycle is… it is becoming very eminent that the NRM and the GoU has stretched it out. They are not able to get or find sources for fresh funds. The state is not able to get enough domestic revenue to even cover the basics. That’s why they are even shortfall on 3 trillion shillings to the Bank of Uganda.

This should be depressing and be worrying, but it is just another day in the Republic. The Value of Money is gone. The money and funds are just missing. Loans for development projects, day-to-day activities are just gone in thin air and they have no plans to repay them. If the NRM and GoU does this to its own Bank. What is it doing to the Multi-National Banks and Monetary Instruments it loans from on the regular?

That should put shiver down your spine. This is a sign of a financial downturn, a sort of financial self-destruction and possibly re-structuring of old debt. Because, the state cannot even carry the advances it took out in FY 2021/22. Peace.

The Art of Deficit Financing: Budget 2022/23 and the worrying affects of the growing debt…

The proposed budget for FY2O22/23 hos increased to UGX 47.25 trillion from the approved budget of UGX 44.77 trillion in FY2O21/22. ln the proposed budget, recurrent expenditures amount to UGX 33.54 trillion (71%) while development expenditures amount to UGX 13.70 trillion (129%). Worryingly, the projected revenue collections of UGX 25.54 trillion cannot fund the country’s entire recurrent expenditures” (Opposition Response to the Annual Budget Estimates for FY 2022/23, 03.05.2022).

When you read the first numbers on the Budget for the Financial Year of 2022/23 you see a problem that has been a long lingering issue. The National Resistance Movement (NRM) and Government of Uganda (GoU) has done this for several of years now. The state has banked on loans and grants to cover the deficits. While the state is budgeting with a deficit financing method, which is far from covering fiscal funds by the lack of domestic revenue. That’s why the rising debt and the cycle of recycling debt isn’t making things better.

Just read this paragraph here:

It is critical to note that debt management costs hove risen from UGX 8.58 trillion in FY2017/18 and ore projected to be UGX 15.94 trillion in FY2022/23. This translates to on increment of 86%. The costs take first coll on the budget to cater for interest payments, commitment charges, debt management fees and amortisation. Therefore, from the onset 33% of the proposed budget will

not be available for service delivery. instead, it will be utilised for payment of partial debt commitments” (Opposition Response to the Annual Budget Estimates for FY 2022/23, 03.05.2022).

Just seeing this number, as you see the lack of domestic revenue to cover the budget of 47 trillion shillings, which is only at the level of 25 trillions. While the project debt management is put to about 16 trillions shillings. That means most of the domestic revenue would be used to pay old debt. Unless, the state plans to take out more loans and recycle debt to pay the old debt. That is just pushing the problem further down the line and get more interests as well. Therefore, the state finances isn’t tricky anymore, but a tragic phenomenon. These sorts of numbers are getting closer to default and a possible debt trap at one point. As the state needs more loans to cover current loans. That is not how to run a nation and neither how to run a fiscal responsible government.

The numbers becomes even more striking:
“The advance effect of this astronomical level of borrowing is felt through interest payments of over UGX 5.5 trillion in FY2O22/23 rising from UGX 2.4 trillion in FY2017/18. An increment of 130%. This is coupled by external debt repayments that ore projected at UGX 2.4 trillion in FY2022/23 rising from UGX 589 billion in FY2017/18. An increment of 307%. These toke first coll on the revenue collection and reduces funds available for service delivery” (Opposition Response to the Annual Budget Estimates for FY 2022/23, 03.05.2022).

We see the debt management and now we see the rising interest payments are also doing the same. The ones that has been crying wolf and worried for the rising debt portfolio is catching up with the government. The Ministry of Finance and Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED) has failed to comply with the mechanisms and the codes of Public Finance and Management Act. Clearly, the Government and the all the Ministries has to be following suit.

These sorts of numbers should strike fear of a debt default and a crashing economy. The art of deficit financing … is now becoming a growing issue. The state cannot hide from this and this should worry the citizens. As there is nothing given that the creditors will be merciful or give way. They might … be vengeful and take collateral over failure to repay the debt. Peace.

Opinion: The Budget for the FY 2022/23 lacks 2,6 Trillion shillings!

We know that the state during the recent years have been running on deficit financing. This means it takes up loans to pay up for new loans to pay recurring expenditures. The state follows up this negative spiral of lacking of funds to ask for more expenditure than it has funding for. This means, the state is fiscally indisciplined and misusing funds, as they have to later find sources of revenue or take up more loans to fulfil the voted expenditure it has.

That isn’t a sign of a growing economy, but a way to further more loans and add more debt, which has to be paid back with interests in the coming years. As the parts of the government budgets are becoming more expensive, as the state has to fulfil and repay on the debts it has already taken out over the years.

The Minority Report states this:
“The government contradicted itself when it indicated that there would be limited supplementary budgets in FY2022/23 but at the same time elaborately articulate unfunded priorities or additional expenditure needs of UGX 2.62 trillion. Unfortunately, the majority report is silent on this fiscal indiscipline. The indiscipline of supplementary budgets is bound to continue and government hos sent indications that a minimum of UGX 2.62 trillion will be sought in due course” (A MINORITY REPORT ON THE NATIONAL BUDGET FRAMEWORK PAPER FOR FY 2022/23 -2025/26, January 2022).

This here should create headlines, because this is planning to take out loans to cover the current debt, which this will be. Since the state needs borrow or take up loans to cover these expenses. This just show how reckless the state is carrying it’s budgets.

As it can create 2.6 trillion shillings without having any sort of funds or revenue to ensure it. Which means someone else has to foot the bills currently. A creditor will take the debt and make sure the state can pay for the expenses. However, the future citizens has to repay for this and that is fiscal indiscipline and deficit financing. As the deficit needs financing and the shortfall has to be covered, which tends to be covered by debt.

This is unserious of the government and a sign of worry. As they are doing this on the first budget for the financial year and we can know additional supplementary budgets will most likely become bigger than two trillion shillings. We should expect more and the shortfalls might become worse, as all revenue isn’t recovered or the estimated tax-base isn’t as huge as earlier estimates and therefore the state couldn’t perform or have fresh funds to pay for the reoccurring expenses. Peace.

Common Leauge of Ugandans in the Disapora: Uganda IMF US$1 Billion Planned Disbursement (24.06.2021)

Opinion: Museveni and the NRM is in a ill-advised debt-cycle

The National Resistance Movement and President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni have created a negative spiral of debt. The state have taken out more and more debt over the years. The CSBAG, Uganda Debt Network and other organizations have spoken out about this. As the state have the need to pay more in interests and it takes away more from the general budget.

Now the state is saying it has 65 Trillion Shillings in unsustainable debt. That is happening after the Parliament have had sessions over the last few years. Where the only thing they do is to vote over debt and approve more loans to the state for various of development projects, roads and you can wonder if it does anything.

The state is now owning a lot of money. More money than it usually uses in a state budget. The state budgets of late have had half of the revenue coming from domestic taxes and the other either grants or loans. There is also additional supplementary budgets, which is coming in cycles during the budget year. Which is adding more debt… and creating more debt.

There been worry about the rise of debt, but the NRM and the President has said it has been done within reason. However, that is now the chickens coming home to roost. There is enough problems ahead and the state has created this financial conundrum. It has been done deliberately over time.

The Parliament is on the regular issuing now loans… and taking new loans. While hoping one day they have the revenue to actually do these things. The state is spending money and funds it doesn’t have. That is an unforgiving task… and the NRM cannot run away from this.

The NRM have created problem. The appointments of the President is doing this. The Bank of Uganda (BoU) and Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED) should have seen this coming. They have been looking over the expenditures and the interests rates. They know when the grace periods of the loans are over. These folks are the ones who has the oversight and supposed sound judgement to advice the Parliament to accept all these loans. However, that is clearly not the case.

The state is crippling its budgets, overspending and over-loaning funds over time. Now, the creditors and debtors wants their pieces of coins back. They cannot bail on it or default on it. Then the state will not be trustworthy and be credible as a economic broker. The state is clearly struggling and lacking funds. That’s because they are having trouble to raise domestic revenue and have to high costs.

This is a self-inflicted ill-advised debt-cycle. A government not listening to CSBAG, Uganda Debt Network and others. The NRM and Museveni should have done that. It will be harder for them to get solidarity this time around. As the Museveni era of now is destructive. The state actions against its own citizens and totalitarian acts. Is not the ones who makes outsiders forgiving like it did in the early 1990s when Museveni was part of a new group of leaders that the West had hopes in. However, that boat has sailed and the truth has come out. That is why Museveni is still there and depleting the state like there is no tomorrow. This is why the debt is rising and its run without any balance of the budgets. That is why the debt is rising and there is no way out.

They want debt forgiveness. However, getting that now will be a feat, but not sustainable either. As this state will just take out new loans and not re-coup or try to absorb the lack of revenue, which is causing the problem in the first place. That is why the state doesn’t have any liquidity or equity to trade for the lack of revenue. It is just a sinking boat and the captain seems clueless…

Deficit financing can only take that far and now its at the end of that journey. Peace.

Uganda: Deficit financing is creating an evil circle financially [72% of revenue spent on debt repayment!]

By implication, if sh15.7 trillion for debt service-related expenditures is subtracted from the sh21.9 trillion the Government will have generated in revenue collection, it means that 72% of the country’s revenue collection would be spent on debt repayment. The committee raised concern that the high rate at which government is borrowing is not commensurate with the low level of increasing government revenue collection and, therefore, violates the country’s charter of fiscal responsibility. The report indicates that as of June 2020, Uganda’s public debt had reached $15.27b, which is equivalent to sh56.9 trillion. Out of this sh38.9 trillion is external debt and sh17.9 trillion domestic debt” (Moses Mulondo – ‘Govt earmarks sh15.7 trillion for debt repayment ‘ 03.02.2021, New Vision)

The news on how the state got to repay old loans is coming out. As the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED) have put forward the budget for the Financial Year of 2021/22. This is initially telling stories on the revenue or tax base, which will be preoccupied or used for paying debt repayment.

Just to put things in perspective. This is the definition of ‘Deficit Financing’:

Deficit financing, however, may also result from government inefficiency, reflecting widespread tax evasion or wasteful spending rather than the operation of a planned countercyclical policy. Where capital markets are undeveloped, deficit financing may place the government in debt to foreign creditors. In addition, in many less-developed countries, budget surpluses may be desirable in themselves as a way of encouraging private saving” (Encyclopaedia Britannica – ‘Deficit financing’ (25.08.2015).

This here is telling the story, which the state media and others isn’t telling. Because, they are borrowing funds to cover up for the deficit. The deficit is created as a result of the rising cronyism and misuse of funds. These funds have to cover the bloated government and its staff. That is why deficit is created to fix the shortfall between the needed revenue and the expenditures of the state. They are using loans to cover and fix the lacking revenue of the state. If the state had enough funds through its tax-base, the state wouldn’t need these loans in the fist place.

However, the state have prolonged with this game over years. The state has used loans to cover its baseline and usage of funds. They have went out for foreign creditors to get enough funding. That shows that the state haven’t been fiscal responsible. They have misused the authority of the state and taken up loans, which now accumulate to over 70% of yearly revenue. While this is happening. The state and the Parliament is still issuing new loans and creating a bigger debt burden. That is what they are doing… and that cycle must stop.

Soon, all revenue will go directly to debt repayment. We know the state wants to have debt relief, but this is self-created by the regime, as they are borrowing for basic commodities and necessities. They are always loaning funds to build development projects and infrastructure, which will be costly. As funds are lost and misused in the building of these. That is why the price of road is so expensive and also projects in general. Therefore, the state is crewed over more than it can swallow.

That is why the state is deficit financing and its become a burden, which it cannot carry. The debt is not sustainable. When 72% revenue is spent on debt repayments. That shouldn’t be a thing, but that is fiscal policy of this regime and apologist cannot hide the fact. They have run down the state and taken up loans they cannot carry. Peace.

Opinion: When the NRM is more important than the elected officials…

For years there been promises of bicycles to the Local Councillors 1, the village leaders and it never happened. This was supposed to deliver for the about 69.000 villages. The state was bound to buy 70,000 bicycles and State Minister of Finance David Bahati renewed this pledge in 2019. However, it never amounted to anything. So, the National Resistance Movement (NRM) government have pledged this to the LC1 Councillors for about a decade without delivering.

However, today the same NRM suddenly have 65,000 bicycles to the NRM Village Chairpersons across the Republic. In the middle of August a year after the renewed pledge to the elected village officials. The state and governing party is giving the same amount of bikes to their own.

The “Yellow Bicycles” is just so fitting. This is a easy ploy and usage of an old pledge to their own. Instead of giving it to whoever represents the villagers across the Republic. They are instead only giving this gift to their own. This is making the NRM greater and flex. Because, everyone cannot have VW Beetle like late Abiriga. That is something we know the Movement cannot afford…

Nevertheless, these Yellow Bicycles are just so conveniently fitting into a government scheme and appear right before the elections. It is just like naming the LC1 Councillors Bicycles into the Yellow Bicycles schemes. It is about the same amount of bikes and has the same means even. Only difference, instead of being shared between all sort of political parties. It is a inner-party act.

It is to show greatness in 2020. To give a small donation and usage of billions of shillings on bicycles. In 2010/11 it was bound to be 11 billion shillings for the same. Now years later it might be more costly and could be in the amounts of 30 billion shillings. Who knows at what cost and who traded them.

We are seeing that old promise, an old pledge has been renewed, sort of delivered, but its biased and have become NRM thing. It is not a national thing or a government one. It is a party scheme and a Movement drive. This is not for the villages representatives, but for the NRM village representatives. It is not like Resistance Councils are still alive and kicking it. The system is a multi party one. With that in mind, the NRM only giving to their own, which is fine.

However, this is supposed to be all village councillor, not only the ones wearing yellow and members of the Movement. This was supposed to be to all village councillors, no matter what party or creed. Nevertheless, that is clearly not the aim anymore.

The Movement is showing its greed and selfishness. Who knows where the money comes from and who earns on the trade. The NRM Village Councillors are used for this and toyed with. They are giving a small token for their loyalty, but the big-men is eating the whole plate all year. That is why something like this is only a ploy, a small arrangement and act of charity. However, this is not building long lasting structures.

This is for the NRM and by the NRM. While using a scheme that was supposed to be a government act for elected village officials. They can rewrite and change the narrative, but that doesn’t make it true. Peace.

The Art of Deficit Financing: Budget 2020/21

Deficit financing, however, may also result from government inefficiency, reflecting widespread tax evasion or wasteful spending rather than the operation of a planned countercyclical policy. Where capital markets are undeveloped, deficit financing may place the government in debt to foreign creditors. In addition, in many less-developed countries, budget surpluses may be desirable in themselves as a way of encouraging private saving” (Encyclopaedia Britannica – ‘Deficit financing’ (25.08.2015).

What is striking from the 2020/21 budget is that its not only 45 trillion shillings, but the way they are financing this spending. Because, the budget need financing or revenue to pay the expenditure. You cannot use air to pay the bondsman. The people you owe money or supposed to spend on needs real cash-flow and liquidity to be fiscal responsible.

What we learned again is the debt deficit financing, which has been common staple in the Republic. Since domestic revenue or tax revenue is about 20 trillions shillings. This means that the rest of the budget has to paid for in various of other ways. In this regard, the state are borrowing, refinancing and gaining more debt. As the state is also wasting more of the budget on paying interests.

This is really making a evil circle and continuing debt trap. Even if the trillions upon trillions owned by the state is growing. That this still haven’t hit a debt ceiling. However, the issue here is the amount of paying interests. They are wasting away money on paying for old loans. This is what the state is initially offering. While it is gaining new debt to finance the over-expenditure today.

When the state pays 4 trillion shillings (9% of the budget) in interests. That shows how destructive this is for the budget. How important it has become. When 1 in 10 shillings of the budgets are paid in interest. This money could have been spent in all parts of society. It could have changed people’s lives and invested in the future. Instead its paying on the debt trap created by the same state.

Deficit financing and refinancing will only ensure the future generations are paying for the growing debt created by the current government. They are borrowing on the future growth and supposed revenue. Even as the state is ballooning the budgets, that they are not able to cover more than half. That is worrying and should worry the republic too.

Yes, that budgets get ballooned in election years are common. That the budgets are insincere and write of taxes in these years are typical too. All of this isn’t new. It is what happens when the Republic is preparing for elections in the coming year. Therefore, the state needs a treasure chest to bling out on chiefs, voter tourism and whatever else to look good for everyone.

That is why this budget is like this. We can clearly see that the state are continuing to acquire more debt, which means the interest payments will grow every year. This is why the refinancing and growing debt should worry everyone. Because, just like the interests payments are now at 9% or 4 trillion shillings this year. We can wonder how it will look when the grace-periods of several of loans are over and the initial price of these as well.

The Republic of Uganda deserves better, but the leaders and the ones in-charge are making it like this. They are not concerned about the future and that is very clear. As they are spending and squandering away the future today. Then someone have to pick up the tab in the future. Peace.

Opinion: Apparently, a bribe isn’t a bribe according to High Court Justice Bashaija

Presidential Handshake: “A letter from the President that designate unsolicited funds to civil servants as areward” or as a “handshake”, which by some is deemed as an “error of judgement”, but not defined as a bribe. Even if it looks like a bribe and smells like a bribe” (Minbane – ‘Presidential Handshake’ Definition, 2020).

I don’t know what goes through some people’s mind, I don’t if Kampala High Court Justice Andrew Bashaija is trying to be the devils advocate or something. But the news in the Independent Magazine on the Saturday 15th February 2020 titled: “Court clears ‘presidential handshake’ beneficiaries”. Where the article states this about the judgement made on the Friday 14th February 2020: “Justice Andrew Basahaija ruled on Friday that the recommendations of the committee were illegal and said the orders of the committee “be removed from public orders and should not be implemented.” He said he didn’t find anything wrong with the officials who received the money” (Independent Magazine, 16.02.2020).

We can really see that a Justice, a man who judges on the basis of the law are able to make it legal to steal, thieving and directly eat out of the state coffers without any consequence. Instead throwing the book at the ones doing oversight of the state, the MPs and the COSASE Committee who worked on the case and looked into the shady 6 billion shillings “Presidential Handshake”. Clearly, the state has its benefactors, maybe even the Justice is awaiting his handshake in the future. Because something is up, when your making these sort of deals legal.

It’s like this part of the COSASE report was dismissed without merit:

As a follow up to the H.E. the President’s letter of 16th November, 2015, the Commissioner General of URA wrote to the Permanent Secretary/Secretary to Treasury (PS/TS) in a letter dated 11th December, 2015 (App. B6) requesting him to formally designate her as accounting Officer through whom the reward would be paid and to formally requisition for the UGX 6,000,000,000 (Uganda Shillings Six Billions Only)” (…) “The Commissioner General, as advised and in a letter dated 5th May 2016 (App. B8) sought authority from the Hon. Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development to reallocate UGX. 6 Billion (Uganda Shillings Six Billion Only) from URA Tax Refund Account to URA Expenditure Account so that the 42 Public Officers could be paid and suggested that a supplementary to URA for that amount to be considered and handled by the Hon. Minister of Finance, Planning and Economic Development. The Hon. Minister of Finance, Planning and Economic Development did not grant this authority. However, by letter dated 19th October, 2016 (App. B10) he requested the Auditor General to issue an audit warrant for UGX 6 Billion” (COSASE, P: 10-11, 2017).

It’s like the whole deal is left in the wind by the Justice himself. That this sought of transaction is okay, as long as the President write letters directing it. Even if it was never budgeted from, never was part of state functions and this was an direct pay-off, as the Public Officers was a part of tax battle with Tullow Oil. This case amounted in a tax victory for the state, but not for the civil servants. That’s why this “Presidential Handshake” is a bribe and envelopes given without protocol.

Like the Justice is saying COSASE report and recommendations should be implemented. With saying that it wasn’t legal what the culprits at Uganda Revenue Authority was doing, neither the President, but instead putting the blame on the people writing the report. Which is again fun-fan fiction of political science and governance. As you are again targeting the messengers and not the ones actually talking. Your aiming your guns at the ones reporting the ordeal, not the ones actually doing it. That is what the Justice is in this point is doing.

So, the state can live in denial, because the old man with the hat is directing it. That doesn’t make it illegal. But surely, if a small local councillor did this to his fellow employees. He would be meeting the State House – Anti Corruption Unit in a hot minute. But he didn’t have the blessing of the “high above” from the same State House. That is the pin-point, that makes a difference between what is legal and what is illegal.

If the King did the decree or not. If he hasn’t signed off on it, its illegal and if he does sign-off on it; then it’s legal. That is the golden rule in the Republic or the legal term of a “Presidential Handshake”.

When the state can make internal thieving legal, what else could they do with their power? I don’t want to know, but I am sure its more sinister than a 6bn shillings handshake. Peace.

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