Rumor: UPDF returning to South Sudan via Kaya!

I have been vocal about my lack of faith in President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni as mediator in South Sudan. As he has been a loyal weapon-brother to President Salva Kiir Mayardit. Therefore, today’s unconfirmed rumors might be true. As this is not the first time Museveni is serving military support to the South Sudanese. This has been done before.

The rumor, which isn’t verified yet:

22 Ural tracks with UPDF have just crossed into South Sudan via Kaya. The rest are still in Koboko barracks awaiting to cross into South Sudan. Khartoum peace agreement between Khartoum and Kampala is working”.

This here would be devastating as the works on the Peace Agreement together with Sudan and IGAD in Khartoum is about to resume. The draft document are already released and the works on it is needed. So that all parties are settled and agreeing on the terms.

While that is happening. Now there are reports of possible movement of soldiers. They are most likely working directly with the South Sudanese Defence Forces (former Sudanese People’s Liberation Army – SPLA). As they would serve the arms and services for whatever needs President Kiir needs. If they would be there for peacekeeping mission, they wouldn’t be sneaked in.

That is why I am waiting for verification, but this isn’t shocking, as the UPDF have helped with both technical help, training of soldiers and weapons. Therefore, this is following a pattern of Museveni offering Kiir a hand. Peace.

South Sudan: CTSAMM Report 2018/24 – Military Movement and Offensive Military Operations in the Wau Area – Executive Summary (26.07.2018)

South Sudan: UNMISS – PoC Update (22.08.2018)

South Sudan: Joint Monitoring and Evalution Commisison Press Release (20.08.2018)

South Sudan: Humanitarian Coordinator calls for an end to attacks against civilians and aid workers on World Humanitarian Day (20.08.2018)

IGAD: Joint Communique to the People of South Sudan on ceasefire of Khartoum Round of Talks, 19th August 2018, Khartoum (19.08.2018)

South Sudan United Front – “Re: Statement on Felacitation on the Troika’s Recent Joint Release” (13.08.2018)

Museveni talks peace in South Sudan, but trains snipers for them simultaneously!

As a guarantor to the agreement, it is my hope that this is the last pact we are signing and that the respective parties are serious and they don’t use the ceasefire as a tactical instrument of preparing for war” Yoweri Kaguta Museveni (06.08.2016, Khartoum).

We know with time that President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni has invested his army and sent battalions to help out the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) of South Sudan Defence Force (SSDF). This has been done in the past and also close to present day. This is a longstanding friendship between President Salva Kiir Mayardit, who has used the help from Uganda, when in need. Museveni have helped the South Sudanese rebels all the way back to Dr. John Garang, therefore, his involvement in the conflict there is ancient.

So, yesterdays leak of more involvement as the ceasefire and peace agreement made last week. There is also indication of specialized training of soldiers. They are training a thousand in Warrap state, also training snipers in Buliisa. This is happening as the peace agreement is signed. Not a sign of peace, but using the cease-fire as a tactical instrument, just as Museveni warned, but he accept that his weapon-brother Kiir does that.

Uganda’s former intelligence operative, James Moises, known for exposing some Uganda’s secret dealings in South Sudan’s conflict says his country is now deeply involved in a covert sniper training project in South Sudan and Uganda, claiming the project is designed to withstand any future military confrontation with rebel forces in Juba. “There is peace being conducted in Sudan while Uganda is training at least 1300 SPLA snipers to wage a war when Riek Machar return to Juba,” James explains. “Museveni sent his military men to Warrap State. They are now training 1000 snipers there,” he asserted. The former Ugandan spy further claims that more than 300 South Sudan’s government soldiers are also being trained as snipers in Western Uganda district of Buliisa. “There are at least 300 South Sudanese soldiers being trained as snipers here in Uganda. These soldiers are being trained in Buliisa district.” James said” (South Sudan News Agency – ‘Uganda trains South Sudan snipers as peace continues in Khartoum’ 08.08.2018, link: http://southsudannewsagency.org/index.php/2018/08/08/uganda-trains-south-sudan-snipers-as-peace-continues-in-khartoum/).

I was skeptical of the agreement and the lasting effect, as these people are war-lords, rebels and people who runs to their guns. They don’t really negotiate or even try to forge relationship. There been positive signs, but this sorts of reports.

On May 28th 2017 I wrote this and I stand by it:

With the knowledge of the connection between Ugandan Army and the SPLA, Museveni is more important to keep Kiir as an ally, than generate a real peace. The National Dialogue is flawed and it doesn’t help that you have a partial motivated leader like Museveni helping out. It is not to give the mediation any credibility. Since the weapon-brother and the ammunition supplier of the SPLA would not be sincere in wishing peace. He has made sure that President Kiir could battle his enemies and had enough bullets to silence them” (Minbane – ‘[The Arms supplier to SPLA] President Museveni are involved in developing a work-plan for peace in South Sudan!’ 28.05.2017, link: https://minbane.wordpress.com/2017/05/28/httpwp-mep1xtjg-4of-2/).

Therefore, what I wrote back then, is as right today. President Museveni is not only supplying possibly weapons to the SPLA/SSDF, but also delivering training for snipers. This shows how partial he is.

If someone is Kiir’s weapons brother, than Museveni is the first in-line. He continues to speak of peace, but waging war in private. Peace.

South Sudan Opposition Alliance (SSOA) – Press Statement (06.08.2018)

Statement of the Chairperson of the African Union Commission on the Agreement on Outstanding issues of Governance in South Sudan (07.08.2018)