MinBane

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Archive for the tag “China Exim Bank”

Opinion: The Chinese claims the loans to developing countries is not to trap them – I beg to differ!

Today, there was an interesting thing coming through my feed that captured my eye. It was a headline from the Philippines News Agency. It was claiming that the Chinese was not making developing countries in debt slaves or putting them into debt traps by taking up huge loans for extensive spending on infrastructure projects. Now in March 2019, the Chinese are claiming that they are just giving viable loans and not to much.

However, I will beg to differ, but before I do so. Let see what the Chines spokesperson said. Which I have to say is not true.

Guo Weimin, spokesperson of the second session of the 13th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), said extending Chinese loans to developing countries aims to facilitate infrastructure projects that are expected to bring development and boost the economic growth of these nations. “Chinese investments only account for a very small share to their total debt. And our projects are mostly infrastructure, which can support the long-term development of those countries,” Guo said. “Yet some say, this is a great debt trap. But this doesn’t make sense,” he added” (Kris Chrismundo – ‘No debt trap for developing countries: CN political advisory body’ 02.03.2019, link: http://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1063438).

Let’s me just take the first victim of the debt trap made by the Chinese is in Sri Lanka where the Chinese has taken over and lease the Hambantota Port for 99 years in 2018. While in Zambia, the Chinese has taken over ZESCO, the state electricity company, majority ownership of the Zambian National Broadcasting Company, and if the Republic fails more on their debt. The Zambian state might loose the ownership of Kenneth Kaunda International Airport as well.

In Kenya, the government have loaned massive funds for the Standard Gauge Railway Part 1 and 2. Now, they are on the limb and its speculated that the Port of Mombasa can be taken as collateral for the possible failing loans.

There are warning signs of the total loans given to Tonga, Fiji, Samoa, Papua New Guinea, Maldives, Ghana, Liberia Philippines and so on. They are clearly strategic about it. There should also be worrying about the loans given to the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, Tanzania and so on. The Chinese has loaned for massive projects and not small-pocketed money. Which the Chinese would like to have back paid.

This is just small examples of what that is coming. Because the states are taking up gigantic loans, which they can possibly default with. That is why the Chinese has been smart enough to sign for collateral, which usually is important parts of infrastructure or mobility. So, that the Chinese can trade and also control vital parts of the economy. They are not joking around and seemingly taken a soft approach to neo-colonize the developing countries. Because they can and have the ability to do so.

We can wonder if there will be more like this. There are also the battle happening in Djibouti over the Doraleh Port, who went from DP World Port Company to a Chinese Company. That was because of the debt that the Republic of Djibouti had. Just like the port in Sri Lanka went to them as well. Both very strategic and important ports in their regions. Therefore, the Chinese has gotten good infrastructure and possible revenue streams in these Republic for their defaulting loans.

There will be more to come out of this. That is why I don’t believe the Chinese, saying the developing countries can manage the amount of loans, as the Chinese are planning to takeover something to get repaid for their services. Peace.

Kenya Pipeline Company: Press Statement – KPC Management is Fully Committed to the Fight against Corruption (20.02.2019)

Kenya Pipeline Company Limited – Press Release (04.12.2018)

Opinion: China is starting to squeeze the Kenyan Economy!

If you were ever thinking that Beijing would loan and build without consequence. Those days should long be gone. The Chinese are planning to earn money on their investments, they don’t care about the Republic’s they are investing in, as long as they are profits on their investments. They want earn on these loans and since the rate of loans are so high. They are now starting to pick collateral for their infrastructure loans, especially the draining of loans to the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR).

While acknowledging China’s leading role in the Kenyan economy as a trading partner, the President called for increased Chinese investments in the country. “China now ranks as the number one trading partner with Kenya accounting for 17.2% of Kenya’s total trade with the World,” he said. “Kenya is open and safe for business. Kenya has one of the most conducive business environments in Africa,” the President added” (President.Go.Ke – ‘President Kenyatta Asks China To Give Preferential Treatment For African Goods’ 02.11.2018).

While Kenyatta are acting as it all positive, the reality is that the state are having giant issues with their “investments” and loans there. But Kenyatta wants to make it sound positive, when it really isn’t, just the rate of the loans have grown and the consequences of the relationship with China is now starting to cost. It is the Kenyans that has to pay these loans down and with every way possible. As the Chinese has leverage over the Kenyan government. Take a look at these quotes from media recently!

Loan Rate in Kenya:

Kenya’s current public debt stands at approximately 4.884 trillion Kenyan shillings (USD$49 billion) or 56.4% of the country’s gross domestic product.. This is up from 42.8% in 2008. In other words, the country owes more than half the value of its economic output (GDP)” (…) “China is Kenya’s largest creditor, holding about 72% of the country’s bilateral debt as of March 2017. Studies show that Kenya’s Chinese debt poses a threat because the loan agreements are not transparent, projects are not well prioritised, accounting procedures are weak and it’s not clear what projects are costing” (Odongo Kodongo – ‘Kenya’s public debt is rising to dangerous levels’ 05.08.2018).

Selling State Owned Enterprises:

The Privatisation Commission has approved sale of 26 state-owned corporations to raise funds to support the budget. The commission, under the Privatisation Act, 2005, was mandated to sell 26 poorly performing state corporations to cut down government spending. Those approved for sale are National Bank of Kenya, Consolidated Bank of Kenya, Kenya Meat Commission, Development Bank of Kenya, East African Portland Cement, Kengen, Kenya Pipeline Corporation, Kenya Ports Authority, and five sugar millers — Chemilil, Sony, Nzoia, Miwani and Muhoroni. Others are Agrochemical and Food Corporation, New Kenya Co-operative Creameries, Numerical Machining Complex and Isolated Power stations, hotels (Kabarnet Hotel, Mt Elgon Lodge Ltd, Golf Hotel Ltd, Sunset Hotel Ltd and Kenya Safari Lodges and Hotels Ltd). Also targetted are Kenya Tourism Development Corporation-associated companies, which include International Hotels Kenya Ltd, Kenya Hotels Properties Ltd, Mountain Lodge Ltd and Ark Ltd” (Cynthia Ilako – ‘State to sell 26 companies to finance current budget’ 03.11.2018, The Star Kenya).

China Selling Infrastructure Loans to Investors:

The plan will see Hong Kong mortgage insurer Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation (HKMC) buy a diverse basket of infrastructure loans next year and explore the idea of “securitising” or repackaging them into securities for sale to investors, allowing it extra liquidity that it can loan out to finance more infrastructure projects. “This initiative we believe will help ‘recycle’ commercial banks’ capital to be redeployed into other greenfield infrastructure projects, besides enabling wider capital markets participation in infrastructure development under the Road and Belt initiative,” said HKMC Greater China chief executive Helen Wong” (Allan Olingo – ‘China plans to sell off its African infrastructure debt to investors’ 05.11.2018).

We are seeing the growth of loans, that is up 42,8% and the debt level of the 56,4% of the GDP. Because of that, the state are now selling of their State Owned Enterprises. Most likely to Chinese holding companies and investors, who are expecting to gets points on their dollars. As well, as securing their future on the investment. They are selling the central institutions and businesses, which was state controlled, but they will now become para-stalls of the Chinese.

But selling the institutions are not enough for the Chinese. They are planning to take it further. Planning to rehash the loans as sub-prime loans for investors, meaning they are taking the risk instead of the Export-Import Bank of China, where the loans are usually collected and distributed from. Therefore, the loans are another target of more profits as they want to earn on them as well into the Capital Market. Just like the US Banks did with House Loans and mortgages in the past.

While all that is happening and with the knowledge of this, the President is still keeping it cool. Kenyatta is still not saying the brazen truth, that they are a debt-slave to China. Are in such big trouble, that the investment of the SGR are killing the economy and they have to trade-off their assets to keep up with their payments. That is what is happening and this is not really developing, but hurting the economy even more. As this institutions and businesses has been controlling their markets. Now, they will have masters from outside, which are not there to secure the market, but make a direct profit. Therefore, the citizens are not only paying their loans for the railroads, but for destroying their economy. Peace.

Chinese Investments in Africa: It is not a free-lunch, the tab has to be paid!

African leaders should not turn the continent into a giant collector of donations and loans from wealthy nations—they must find other plausible means to help established their economic security so as to minimize poverty. This incoherent blunder on the mainland must be scrutinized.”Duop Chak Wuol

As The 2018 Beijing Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) is scheduled to happen on the 2nd and 3rd December 2018, there is time to remember how the Chinese is operating on the African Continent. The Chinese isn’t coming with empty giving hands of donations or even charity. They come with intent of interests and needs of resources from the continent, by offering loans, serving and building through state owned enterprises (SOE) in various of countries, whether it is roads, ports or railroads are built by Chinese Companies, by Chinese Workers and often on Chinese loans. Therefore, they might end up as Chinese owned enterprises, whose vital for transportation and export of needed minerals and whatnot from the continent.

Instead of coming with loans and direct-aid with strings like Western Powers has done over the last few decades, the Chinese are coming with friendly loans, but the Heads of State should know that the Chinese doesn’t play. They want value for money and expect a return, if it doesn’t they might snatch the new crown-jewel or anticipate to get perks from the state. If that is some sort of trade-off or licenses to extract mineral resources or even minor taxation like toll-roads, where the piece of cash will be sent to Beijing and not the capitol of the country where the road is built. That is how these people operate. They are not in it to play or be giving, but gain advantage and have the upper-hand.

This can be shown by what the State Media in China writes in Xinhua Net wrote today and what a CARI report on the same funds are saying. The Chinese portray the funding as investments on the Continent, as the funds are most likely pushed as loans, which burdens the states and that they have to repay. Loans are not given, but issued because of lack of direct funds to build those infrastructure and investments done. So, what I am saying isn’t mere speculation, but a narrative that has to sink in.

Chinese Investments:

China’s investments into Africa surged by more than 100 times from 2000 to 2017. In the past three years, annual Chinese direct investment into Africa was about 3 billion dollars on average. By the end of 2017, China’s investments of all kinds into Africa totaled 100 billion dollars, covering almost every country on the continent” (Li Xia – ‘Facts & Figures: China-Africa ties: cooperation for shared future’ 02.09.2018 link: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-09/02/c_137438845.htm).

Chinese Loans:

From 2000 to 2017, the Chinese government, banks and contractors extended US $136 billion in loans to African governments and their state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Angola is the top recipient of Chinese loans, with $42.2 billion disbursed over 17 years. Chinese loan finance is varied. Some government loans qualify as “official development aid.” But other Chinese loans are export credits, suppliers’ credits, or commercial, not concessional in nature. China is not Africa’s largest “donor”” (China Africa Research Initiative – ‘DATA: CHINESE LOANS TO AFRICA’ Version 1.1 August 2018).

They might try to conceal the reality, just like make-up is used on the face to fade the age or even marks that shows stress or pimples. However, the Chinese cannot be able to lie about their intent. They would not offer these sums of cash, without expecting a turnover or even profits. The Chinese wouldn’t allow all these billions of US Dollars spent on these nations to be spoiled and lost on the streets of Lome, Harare, Addis Ababa or Nairobi. They anticipate a return on the loans, either straight cash or getting pieces of the built infrastructure to advance the value of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

That the Heads of State in Africa should be concerned as they are getting in debt traps, instead of being in cycle of positive growth, they are getting new loans to pay the old ones. They are using the same creditor to secure new loans on top of the old-debt. That is how it will continue, until a point where they cannot pay the defaulted debt and the Chinese would then come to snatch something of value to recoup the failing debt. Because they don’t want to write-off the big money without having anything in return. That is what the Chinese has done in Sri Lanka and might start elsewhere. There might be soon more control of port in Djibouti or railroad of Kenya, even the Ethiopia-Djibouti railway line too. As they want their value of money.

They might be all smiles and photo-ops in Beijing these days, the smiles and added loans to dozens of countries. The added “investments” and deals struck, but the Chinese will not do so without getting something in return. To think otherwise, is to be naive and think they don’t have an agenda by doing it.

There is nothing like a free-lunch and the people will learn that, the Heads of State will not directly pay the debt, but the states will do so. Maybe not in this decade or next 5 years, but sooner or later. The bill for the coffee and biscuit will come. Than it is all eaten, but tab still has to be cleared. Peace.

Opinion: Hope Kagame learns from Sri Lanka!

As conning as President Paul Kagame are, he will never outsmart the Chinese in their loans and agreements, especially when concerning their moneys and the planned extension of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Before I show the naive relations that Kagame has with Xi Jinping on the visit. I will first show the statements made by Kagame as he is signing agreements and loans. Kagame is really risking natural resources and the infrastructure projects that the Chinese are supporting. If there is any default on loans or problematic to pay back. The Rwandan state will repay with the resources in the soil or within bound of the structures put in place. Therefore, Kagame shouldn’t think of himself as an equal with China, he should think of it as a borrower and find ways to secure repayments.

I also want to say a few words from the heart. The growing relationship with China is based as much on mutual respect as on mutual interests. That is evident in your personal commitment to our continent, Mr. President” (…) “More generally, China relates to Africa as an equal. We see ourselves as a people on the road to prosperity. China’s actions demonstrate, that you see us in the same way. This is a revolutionary posture in world affairs, and it is more precious than money” Kagame stressed” (Abdur Rahman Alfa Shaban – ‘’China relates to Africa as an equal’ – Paul Kagame’ 23.07.2018 – Africa News).

When you see this, you wonder if the Rwandan President is naive or if he thinking that the Sri Lankan experiment of high loans and bad repayments cannot hit Kigali, like it hit Colombo. Not that I want this to happen to any state. I am as worried about this in Uganda and Kenya, as the loans to for instance Madaraka express, Karuma Hydroelectric Power project and Kampala-Entebbe Expressway. This has to be repaid to the Chinese at some point and with interest.

Kagame is foolish, if he thinks the Chinese will not expect a return on their investment, that is what they do.

Here what happen with the Chinese loans in Sri Lanka:

Some Sri Lankan economists had privately told me in 2011 that their country will find it difficult to repay the massive loan of USD 8 billion at an interest rate of more than six per cent taken from China for modernising the Hambantota port and that it may ultimately have to convert these loans into equity. That warning came true on July 29, 2017 when Sri Lanka and China signed the Hambantota Port Concession Agreement. Soon after the Agreement was signed, China declared that the Hambantota port is a part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). According to the agreement, China will pay USD 1.12 billion upfront in a debt-equity swap in the ratio of 70:30 approximately, with the China Merchant Port Holdings Company (CMPort) getting 69.55 per cent of the shares and the Sri Lanka Ports Authority (SLPA), a public sector organization, holding the remainder 30.45 per cent. After 10 years, SLPA can buy another 20 per cent of the shares, making the two companies equal partners” (…) “The conclusion of an agreement with China to manage the Hambantota port was seen as inevitable after the government buckled under Chinese pressure when the China Communication and Construction Co Ltd, which was building the port city, demanded USD 143 million as compensation for the stalling of the work. The Sri Lankan government was also compelled to renegotiate the Colombo Port city project last year, which had been suspended due to criticism about the Chinese ownership of 20 hectares of freehold land as well as controversy over the project’s possible negative environmental impact” (Smruti S. Pattanaik – ‘New Hambantota Port Deal: China Consolidates its Stakes in Sri Lanka’ 17.08.2017).

So if the Rwandan take the grants and loans for granted, they might be forced by the financial pressure from Beijing to give away either infrastructure or even make concession of some other vital resources. Because the Chinese expect some value for their money, they are not doing this for charity, but for development of themselves. Therefore, Kagame is not an equal and will not be an equal. I wish that was a serious thing, but the way the Chinese play these agreements. They are not playing around and doling out money for the hell of neither. Neither does anyone else, that is why usually with Western Aid the state expect bought from same source imports and also with strains of governance to get the funds. So, the Chinese does it their way. That is respected, however, the worry is what the aftermath is the for the ones that swallowed to much debt and cannot repay.

Will that happen to Rwanda?

Kagame shouldn’t see himself as an equal, but wonder how he does fit as a piece of the puzzle in the BRI project of the Chinese and how he can pay back with interests. Because that is the next step. The should also worry the neighbors who has borrowed heavily as well from the same They should all be careful and wonder what would happen. This is isn’t only for Kagame, but he was today speaking a bit to friendly to the Chinese.

As if he haven’t gotten the news of what happen in Sri Lanka and for everyone else, that should be warning. Peace.

Opinion: When will the grace period of the Chinese loans end? – While, Kenya and Uganda continues to borrow more!

The Government of Kenya and the Government of Uganda, should both worry about their arrangements and their growing debts, as the non-sustainable rates of debt and higher interests. As the unnatural growth of the national budget, where the lack of revenue is covered with more state debt. To cover both salaries and development projects. All of this has happen over the recent years. As more and more of the yearly budget goes to pay interest on old loans, as the old loans also mature and the rates will become more dire. As the strength of the economy isn’t going in the same rates as the loans. This is in the end a debt trap. A debt trap China has used in other countries.

Sri Lanka is the recent example, which has come into a debt trap, where the Chinese loans has become so dire, become so big and not able to recover. That the collateral for the state was to favorable lease the harbor of Hambantota to the Chinese. They had too, since they couldn’t repay the creditor from Peking. That should be realization from all the others who borrows big and think that the Chinese will not get something valuable back for their funding.

This should be a warning for the Kenyan and Ugandan counterparts, this should be a warning for President Kenyatta and President Museveni. That is if they care about the state resources, about their minerals and about the possible extractions from their republics. If they want to be debt-slaves, or lease away the crown jewels to the Chinese, because they promised favorable debt plans, that in the end put them in juxtaposition, that they cannot come out off; unless they trade away something very valuable. If that would be licenses to drill oil in Turkana or in Bunyoro.

Who knows what the end-game of these massive loans are and if the Presidents and their parties plans to repay them. Or hope that the next generation will try to invent new way of generating money. If so, then they are saved by rare luck and not by planning ahead. These loans are big and taking bigger and bigger slices of the GDP. They are going far beyond the levels of revenue and possible future forecast of funds. Therefore, the loans can only at this point benefit the ones giving them. They will get the repayments and the interests. If they don’t get that, they will take collateral and take other state entities to get their values back. The Chinese are doing that in Sri Lanka, they could easily do that with Kenya and Uganda too. They are in for the taking and ready to muscled out.

The Chinese doesn’t play and doesn’t play with money, they will recollect and they will recover the funds spent. As they are not playing games, they are really investing and hoping to get paid-in-full. They are waiting for the numbers to go from red to black. They don’t expect to loose, and if they do. They will figure other ways to collect the lost.

President Kenyatta and President Museveni should know this, but I doubt they are thinking in this direction right now. They are eating and not caring, but their states and their economist should worry. As the growing debts has a backside, not only the interests and the lack of development it creates, as they have to find bigger revenue to cover the debt and the mature loans, as they have to settle old affairs and such. They don’t go away or get deleted over nothing. They got to take charge and find a way to solve it.

The Chinese will take advantage if they start to default, if they struggle to pay, which could come, if the loans and the negative spiral of lack of revenue continues. That is if the state doesn’t find ways to repay. Than, the Chinese might take a port, might take state owned enterprise, but surely they will be paid-in-full. Peace.

The Mugabe Clan still living large on the State Coffers!

The Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) is still taking well care of the former dictator of 37 years. Robert Mugabe and Grace Mugabe are still living large, they are having a bounty of a pension. It is insane, as he was the kingpin, the one who bled the state of funds, paid the cronies and made himself wealthy. Therefore, it is very insulting that he is still living like that. That he even dares to asks for more, when he has more posh cars, can afford to have their sons in Los Angeles and cars taken to Botswana. Because they are afraid of taxes and losing their ill-gotten possessions.

Why I can say he is still living large, is that he sources to Sunday News says: “Since he resigned in November 2017, Mr Mugabe has received $80 000 in pension, while Mrs Mugabe has received $8 680. The payments to Mr Mugabe were made on January 5, 2018 ($40 000), January 29, 2018 ($20 000), and February 28, 2018. The two payments on January 5 were because Mr Mugabe had not received his pension for November and December 2017 due to administrative issues hence the double instalment to offset arrears. He got a third instalment at the end of January as his pension for that month, with the fourth also coming as scheduled in February. Mrs Mugabe received instalments of $2 170 in November and December 2017, and January and February 2018” (Sasa, 2018).

So, that they have been so open in the media last week complaining about their life and such, seems totally out of order. When ordinary people struggles to get 20 US Dollars out of the ATM. While you are earning 20,000 US Dollars per month. That is 1000 times more than what the ordinary people trying to get out of the ATM in Harare.

It is insane that a man who has eaten the state, made it bankrupt and depleted its currency gets such a bounty after the November 2017. He should be happy he isn’t in court answering for his crimes against his people. That he cannot answer for the filthy water in the taps, the lack of institutions and the cronyism who ate it all. On the alter of liberation and freedom, they took it all to themselves instead of sharing it with the public. That is the man and his family crying to the media on their lack of proper support of the former first family. Clearly, the got enough money to have sugar in their tea and beyond.

It is insulting to the Zimbabwean public, that the Mugabe family is frying foul, when they are still getting fortunes, even after been ousting. 20,000 US Dollars get you proper fed, well fed, buying clothes and whatever needs you got. No ordinary citizen in the Republic will ever get near that sort of pay. The Junta, the ZANU-PF is showing mercy on the former comrade and founder, more than what they ever did to President Canaan Banana, who never even received government pension, which Mugabe denied him!

Therefore, Mugabe should pray to whatever deity he believes in, thanks mercy for the greatness of the former comrades. That they gave him this bounty. Because, if he would have gotten the same treatment as he gave others. He would have been kicked out of his homes, lost his posh-cars and lost his estates. That would have been justice any many people’s eyes. Since he took it all and eaten it all.

Even after all of this, its still not enough. He should be grateful for his demise and that it didn’t cost him more. That it was a bloodless coup and that he didn’t catch a bullet. But he lives in the blue-roof and lives lavish. Peace.

Reference:

Sasa, Mabasa – ‘Mugabe cash demands exposed: Wants $467 200 pension in cash’ (11.03.2018) link: http://www.sundaynews.co.zw/mugabe-cash-demands-exposed-wants-467-200-pension-in-cash/

Zimbabwe: Ambrose Muthiniri letter to ZEC – “Re: National Patriotic Front (NPF)” (06.03.2018)

Opinion: The G-40 Party, New Patriotic Front (NPF) will not matter, because Mugabe rigged the game in favor of ZANU-PF and Mnangagwa!

That Robert Mugabe and Grace Mugabe want to play decoy and be involved in the coming election was natural. That has been received the recent reports from the Blue Roof. However, this should be anticipated by the ZANU-PF and the President. Emmerson Mnangagwa should expect that, so that the resigning of Mugabe loyalist and G-40 member Ambrose Mutinhiri, whose petition to African Union and SADC to intervene because of the coup in November 2017. Nevertheless, that doesn’t seem reasonable at this point, as the gearing up to the next election is more likely.

What is weird, but natural with the Mugabe involvement is that the G-40 group of ZANU-PF, the ones who has been kicked out and the ones feels left behind after the coup. Because of the Lacoste ones got into power with the strength of the military, who is now also in the cabinet and behind the scenes. That is known and that is making these people disgruntled. That was expected and surely the ZANU-PF should have foreseen this happening. It wasn’t like he went easy and swiftly, they had to bring the guns and show the muscle before he went and the President could return.

Mugabe is a con, he has been used to using the long-con, the men around him and his family know this. What is striking is the name of the opposition party, New Patriotic Front, as if the Patriotic Front was made between Joshua Nkomo and Mugabe in 1976, as it was partnership to gain more in possible talks with the Ian Smith Government and be united towards the cause of freedom. Even in the 1970s the ZANU under Mugabe was the military support important to him, while in ZAPU’s Nkomo was unchallenged leader. Their stature was different and there was reasons so, but later he would consolidate these parties, and therefore, we have the ZANU-PF.

Now, the Mugabe has outgrown the party he consolidated and created, the liberation party that freed the country from the British, but he never released the citizens from his grip. That is why him and his cronies, so-called comrades are planning to use a New Patriotic Front, use the old term of 1970s , in that spirit to facilitate themselves in the coming elections. As they are using Cde. Mutinhiri to usher it in. Like the G-40 can re-bran itself and become opposition. After the same leaders was used to loot, take and misuse for decades. They was used that people came out of fear and loyalty, now they have to create another venue, another loyalty, as Mnangagwa has inherited the party structure and the military support. The military support that Mugabe has needed and had since 1970s.

So for me the NPF, the Patriotic Front of 2018 isn’t powerful, it is mediocre at best. Since the machinery isn’t there. It is creating headlines and they wrote petition to the SADC and AU. But not that it would change anything, the AU and SADC hasn’t said “no” to Mnangagwa, neither has South Africa or anywhere he has traveled. Mnangagwa is the legitimate president, even if it was unconstitutional. Just like so many of the elections under Mugabe. Where he rigged himself and used the army to spread fear in the community ahead of elections.

There is more likely the Movement for Democratic Change and Nelson Chamisa who taken over the mantle after Morgan Tsvangirai. He is the Chairman and Presidential Candidate for the biggest opposition party and the levels of support has been shown by the recent rallies. The NPF is still just theory, even if the people behind is used to the long-con. They are not having the military support or the steady financing like the ZANU-PF under Mugabe used too. What might happen, is that ZANU-PF might do what it did to MDC-T and others. Where the NPF will get into trouble, the leadership will be detained and their supporters might also get into legal jeopardy. This is well-known if you look into the political history and acts under Mugabe.

Mugabe should know, that the revolution he led that ate the whole country, might in turn eat him. The same monster he created for total control with support of War Veterans and the Military, has now turned on him and his G-40 Group, which now might turn into NPF. They will have the same amount of support as Acie Lumumba, might be able to make headlines, but not run anything else than a sweat-shop.

NPF seems like a far-fetched deal, seems like a dream of party, with Mugabe loyalists and disgruntled members who has fallen out with Mnangagwa. If they think they can do this, they might have to run things from Rotten Row. We can just wonder if they think they have the capacity to run against the regime, the machinery that has been made for the President and not for the opposition. The state hasn’t changed that much since Mugabe was toppled, the same mechanisms are there and they have not left the building. The ones that has left is the pictures of Mugabe and the ones who believed the words of Grace.

There are bigger possibility that Chamisa has a change, if he builds momentum and actually has causes that makes sense not only in Urban areas, but in the rural regions, where sometimes they still only see Mugabe as their President. With this in mind, Mugabe can build a new party, a New Patriotic Front (NPF), but at this moment of time, he will not succeed. They might go after his wealth, after his farms and other corrupt acts of the past. Mugabe has gotten off easy, but if he fires back. Expect ZANU-PF and the military to use things against him. It is like he has forgotten this tactic and don’t think that doesn’t apply to him.

Mugabe has made himself wealthy, also other cronies too, they we’re all eating. Suddenly the winds changed and the military supported Mnangagwa, therefore, the Lacoste won over G-40. Instead of gracefully stepping aside, as Mugabe just lost his position, but hasn’t lost properties and the family has even tried to transport their flash cars to Botswana and abroad. Clearly, they are afraid of losing their possessions.

If they start using their power and leverage, which they still have, do they think they can beat the crocodile? Do they think the ZANU-PF and the military will accept it? Do you expect them to give up their power now?

I wish Chamisa could get a chance, but just like NPF has no chance, I doubt anyone will have anything on Mnangagwa, since he knows this game and is playing invisible chess as we speak. Just like he did in the days after he got sacked and into exile in 2017. Peace.

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