Opinion: Tshisekedi has forgotten his place

President Felix Tshisekedi aka Fatshi and Vital Kamerhe went into a coalition with Kabila’s FCC to create the FCC-CACH Coalition. A way to secure the Presidency and also ensure the needed ceremonial power to someone else than Joseph Kabila. That was all in the cards as the agreements was written and accepted. This was all a way of locking out Lamuka and their coalition from ceasing power.

The FCC have gotten most of the representatives, it has the majority in Parliament and in the regional governments across the Republic. The Kabila party and alliance is the strongest partner. The CACH, the UDPS and UNC is weak already. It doesn’t help Tshisekedi that his ally and the one he went into election with Kamerhe is behind bars and lingering in jail. That doesn’t boost the relations with the UNC.

The consultations made now by Tshiskedi is a supposed power move. Also, because the President doesn’t appreciate Prime Minister Sylvestre Ilunga Ilukamba, an ally of Kabila in the near midsts of the Presidency. However, the President got no choice either, as he is caught in the middle of Kamerhe and Kabila. Kamerhe is lost and his party too in a way. While Kabila holds all the cards to his chest.

That why Kabila has control of his ranks and his coalition, the FCC. They are all in line and working according to him. CACH is failing ahead and on a loosing streak. That is the President own misgivings and lack to detail. He sought so much the Presidency, that he forgot the finer prints and details of it all. Where Kabila have the upper hand and can await the storm.

Tshisekedi doesn’t have much wiggle room. That is why there is a sudden speculations of appointing Lamuka’s Moise Katumbi to the next Prime Minister. To have someone who will be loyal to the President and not Kabila. However, Katumbi is running his G-7/Ensemble and is one of the leaders of Lamuka. That would be betraying that and the Lamuka cause. Which is several of parties. Leaders of the Opposition, who shouldn’t get involved in these sort of government structure.

Neither will Katumbi give any legitimacy to the President. Yes, his beloved and has a standing as a politician. That is why Kabila have sent him into exile and blocked him from entering the Republic. Nevertheless, he does not have the electorate behind him and have the stature that give the ones in reign peace. Therefore, doing this is a gamble for them both and they will both end up loosing.

Kabila might allow it for a little time. But as Kamerhe went down and got court sided. Expect Kabila to have something up his sleeve, if the President dears to challenge him. That will be bloody and there will not be a merciful approach between them. Tshisekedi will regret doing that and Katumbi would be better off without the appointment.

Fatshi will only use Katumbi. There will be no victory or resounding fanfare. Kabila will lurk in the chambers and look out for missteps or find something from the past to haunt him. It will not a positive thing. Katumbi should learn the lesson from Kamerhe and see what happened to him. It will be no different with him.

Kabila is the one running the show from behind the scenes. Fatshi might want it otherwise, but then again. He accepted this arrangement and took the ceremonial piece. Fatshi accepted to be the middle-man and the one cutting ribbons. While Kabila have his fingers all over the place and calling the shots without being elected anywhere. That is what Fatshi accepted and signed over.

Now the pot is calling the kettle back. Fatshi will not win his, but only loose. It is just a matter of how much. Also, how much Kabila wants to humiliate him as well. Peace.

RDC: Union pour la Democratie et le Progres Social (UDPS) – Presidence du Parti – Communique de Presse (22.06.2020)

RDC: Union pour la Nation Congolaise “U.N.C” – Declaration de la Direction Politique Nationale de l’Union pour la Nation Congolaise “UNC” (21.06.2020)

100 Days judgement: Is this the end of CACH?

Today, Vital Kamerhe the Chief of Staff for President Felix Tshisekedi was sentenced to 20 years of forced labour, massive fines and losing his civic duties and opportunity to have a public office in the next 10 years too. This is a giant blow to him, but will also have political ramification beyond the sentencing itself.

Kamerhe (UNC) and Tshisekedi (UDPS) made an alliance before the last election (2018), this was the Cap pour le changement (CACH). This agreement was between them and their two parties l’Union pour la démocratie et le progrès social (UDPS) and l’Union pour la nation congolaise( UNC). This was a game changer.

I have no doubt that Kamerhe was corrupt and has done his dirt. Deserving like any citizen to answer for his crimes and be sentenced today. However, with his stature, role in government and as a running mate to the President. This opens up a can of worms. As he was the leader of the UNC, which is one half of the CACH. It is kind of hard to not see the issues.

Yes, the CACH made secret deals behind the closed doors with Front Commun pour le Congo (FCC). With the fall of Kamerhe, the support there is ideal for the President. But with the fall of Kamerhe his losing the balance within the government and might even get open dissent from former allies. This might be seen as a betrayal of their alliance and also coalition they made. All of that wouldn’t be shocking either, as the UNC has defended their leader is statements since his arrest.

For the UDPS directly they are in pickle. They either got to promote someone else from the UNC or they got to disband the alliance and only focus on the FCC. The FCC is Kabila and Kabila is the FCC. The FCC have never denied that and been adamant about it.

We can wonder how this will affect the relations between them all. As one of the three kingpins are behind bars. Tshisekedi and Kabila is living large, while Kamerhe is in the pen. That is the reality of this. The CACH should practically be dead and this is the funeral of it.

As the CACH are getting the merciful death by the slingshot of getting rid of Kamerhe. We can wonder how the FCC and UDPS will play this one out. Since they let this happen and it happened on their watch. Yes, Kamerhe was corrupt, but so has the whole system been. Getler and Kabila can write books on it and their shady deals behind closed doors. Therefore, we know Kamerhe is just a fitting target here.

The UDPS better consolidate and we better see the President suddenly appear again with Kabila. Like they have done in the past. Having suddenly meetings to iron out their differences. This would make sense now. Since they have no practically assaulted the UNC as one of their allies.

Tshisekedi isn’t alone in power. His still the puppet of Kabila. If he like that? Well, that is the choice he made with the secret deals behind closed doors after the 2018 election. Now that he have betrayed his coalition mate and with the sentence he got. We know this is the end of the road for Vital. Then we can wonder who will trust Felix now? 

Unless, he like to be used and toyed around with. Yes, they made an example of Kamerhe. That is why the ones in office now should thread the waters carefully. If Tshisekedi can do this to Vital. Begs me to question: What could he do to you? Peace.

RDC: Union pour la Nation Congolaise “U.N.C” – Declaration Politique (19.06.2020)

RDC: Association des Bashi pour le Developpement Integral du Bushi – “Cinyabuguma asbl” – Declaration de la communaute des Bashi sur le Proces Vital Kamerhe (16.06.2020)

RDC: UDPS – Communique de Presse – Concerne: Situation politque de l’heure (29.05.2020)

RDC: Communique de L’Union pour la Nation Congolaise (30.05.2020)

RDC: Communique de la Presidence de la Republique (12.05.2020)

Le Congo: Affairs 100 Jours : pour etablir toute la verite sur ce dossier et faire la transparence, la campagne « Congo n’est pas a vendre » s’interroge sur les responsablites des acteurs instutionnels impliques dans la chaine de depenses (01.05.2020)