Burundi: Presidence de la Republique – Secretariat General de l’Etat – Communique du Gouvernment (26.02.2024)

Burundi: Communique de l’ABC et du FODIB sur le Recentes Declarations du President Evariste Ndayishimye et la Fermeture de la Frontiere Burundaise avec le Rwanda (06.02.2024)

Burundi: Burundi Democracy Liberation Force (BDLF-Abisezerano) – Communique du Mouvement BDLF-Abisezerano (30.01.2024)

Burundi: Presidence de la Republique – Secretariat general de l’Etat – Communique du Governement du 23 Janvier 2024 (23.01.2024)

Opinion: Ndayishimiye – the words you used against Kagame… these could easily be used against you…

President Evariste Ndayishimiye of Burundi spoke high and mighty in Kinshasa recently. Sparking an outcry and furthering diplomatic tensions between Gitega and Kigali. Not that it’s surprising or out of the norm. At this stage it is a continuation of what happened a week ago or a month ago.

This circle of conspiracy and accusations in combination with huge ego’s will only further destroy relations between Burundi and Rwanda. While there are truths to the matters. Kagame has shown his hand before and he cannot run away from the blood on his hands. Neither can Ndayishimiye and his allies either.

That the Burundian President calls the Youth of Rwanda to “oust” and get out of “prison” is rich considering how the CNDD-FDD operates and keep themselves in power. The CNDD-FDD and the RPF isn’t that far apart. The only difference is the language and the means to an end. They are both self-serving parties that misuse power and use forces to stay in office. The dissidents are silenced and dies in both Republics. The reign of CNDD-FDD isn’t an honorary one, but one of cheer brutality, which is similar to the RPF.

That’s why Ndayishimiye is throwing stones in a glass house. It is one dictator undressing anther dictator. One tyrant calling for another tyrant to fall. He wants his mortal enemy to fall in Kigali. The ghost that haunts him and his allies. The scapegoat that he wants to get rid off. That’s what he wants right now.

However, Ndayishimiye don’t have the power or the reach to touch Kagame. Kagame doesn’t have the ability or the manpower to do the same with Ndayishimiye. These are two leaders that distrust each other or despise each other too. It is mutual in the disregard for each other and their will to cause trouble for each other too.

Ndayishimiye isn’t acting smart here. Neither is it wise. He is playing with open cards and isn’t doing it in darkness. As a man of a brutal hegemony and existence. He should know that these things are done behind closed doors and are clandestine missions of secrecy. It is not told in the open and for everyone to watch. Therefore, his not that brilliant when doing it like this.

If he would ever conspire or work to end Kagame. We all knew it, because he said so. If Kagame works to end Ndayishimiye, then there is a whistle-blower or a leaker from Kigali unleashing it. Making it “hear-say” until the documents or plans are “official” or “verified sources” can prove the allegations. Alas, the Burundian President aren’t winning by doing this. Instead his losing goodwill and only showing lack of concern with his neighbour.

Yes, the Republic of Burundi can have grievances with Rwanda. Just like Rwanda can have grievances with Burundi. That all makes sense, but right now…

Ndayishimiye needs to re-tool and re-consider his strategy. As this is just shooting wild and hoping that something sticks. He isn’t galvanizing any troops or getting vast support. Neither is Kagame getting much sympathy either. Because the truth is out and the lives are already taken. So, he cannot breathe life into their existence after they are gone.

Nothing good is coming out of this… no victories and no jubilation. Only shivering spines and more headaches. Peace.

Burundi: Declaration a l’Issue de la Retraite de Reflexion sur la Restauration de la Democratie et l’Etat de droit au Burundi tenue en Belgique, du 19 au 21 janvier 2024 (21.01.2024)

Opinion: Who is Rwasa building for?

The interim authority wishes to inform the public that this alliance does not involve CNL but rather Hon Agathon Rwasa himself because he was suspended from his position/President & legal representative for cause serious breaches in accordance with the party’s legal texts. The interim Party authority #CNL learned through social networks of a corresp. of Ministère burundais de l’Intérieur, du Développement communautaire et de la Sécurité publique addressed to the Hon. Agathon Rwasa where he engaged the CNL & sealed an alliance with Po organizations not recognized by law & this without the approval of the legal BP” (CNL Burundi, 17.01.2024).

The Party that Agathon Rwasa is still trying to represent him in the year 2024. That party has openly suspended him on the 4th July 2023. That’s why the alliance that he built early this January 2024 in Arusha is on his own merit and own accord.

The Party that he used to be the President for and represent as a Candidate is now over. He is practically out of the CNL party and shouldn’t use the party affiliation, as he makes an alliance with other organizations.

While that might help Rwasa himself and gain popularity among opposition affiliated groups- or entities. It doesn’t make him any more legit and the authorities are even claiming some of these groups are deemed as “terrorists”, which means his going into murky waters here.

Rwasa has been a figure of the opposition and one of the vocal critics of the CNDD-FDD. He has done so for years. Maybe along the way the goal-post changed and he felt larger than life. As the man believed he was bigger than the party. That’s why in the end the party suspended him and he still have to use it to be relevant.

Rwasa knows this and we know it too. His possibly fishing for relevancy and a need for a new political platform. That might all be true, but his falsely using the CNL and the Party to gain traction among others. That is only hurting CNL and could possibly create trouble with the authorities. Especially, when the authorities are writing letters about the coalition and who Rwasa is aligned with. It will have ramification and hurt the party that Rwasa served for years.

Rwasa might feel that he is the personification of the CNL, but that doesn’t make it true either. This is why he was forced to be suspended in the first place. Now he continues to pursuit selfish gains and political points by getting new groups together. That is a risky move and could cost him a lot more. Instead of fighting himself back in the CNL.

He will be further alienating the possibility to return to CNL and the authorities will monitor his every action. As they suspect fellow allies to be “terrorists”. With that knowledge it would be only wise of the CNL to denounce and discredit Rwasa as a “individual” doing the bidding and not his former party. That’s the true reason here.

The regime of Burundi is vicious and brutal towards it’s enemies. That isn’t a secret, but a fact. The CNDD-FDD prefers to silence the ones that are in its way. That is something Rwasa and the CNL knows. They have seen the acts of the authorities and their law enforcement. Therefore, Rwasa is risking a lot by doing all of this.

His plays in the CNL might be forever gone, but CNL might feel the ramification if the authorities are spiteful. While Rwasa might hang around people with sinister motives and that doesn’t make anything better for the Republic. Only causes more blood and suffering. Peace.

Opinion: Is the EAC functional at the moment? Or should we await for further confirmation?

Is the line working? Are there someone answering on the other side? Did we dial the number correctly? Is the East African Community (EAC) functional or is a front?

I don’t know… but things aren’t splendid at the moment. There are several of cases pending and issues going on, which says otherwise. While the EAC Secretariat is busy pleading to the nations of finding amicable responses. There is little to no feedback or concern about these statements.

Yes, the Tanzanian authorities barred Kenyan Airways today. While Kenyan high ranking officials had spoken ill of the Rwandan regime and they wanted another sort of apology in return, which we have never heard. The Ugandan authorities on the other hand has suspended the imports of petrol through Kenya and has sued the Kenya cartels in the EAC Courts.

The Democratic Republic of Congo have on the other hand gone after Rwanda and said if it doesn’t stop the “proxy war” inside the DRC. Kinshasa might invade Kigali in the future. That’s not a good look for the EAC and having the DRC as one of the newest members of it.

Burundi has also dwelled into murky waters over a “claimed” Rwandan supported proxy militia attacking on Burundian soil. Which has resulted in the closure of borders to Rwanda and suspending diplomatic ties with Kigali. Therefore, things aren’t looking good.

Neither of these things are new in the EAC. There been closure of borders between Uganda-Rwanda in past. There been blockade of trading certain goods between Uganda-Kenya like Chickens. The Kenyan authorities has blocked certain trades with Somalia, which has also become a member of the EAC. Therefore, there is no common market or protocol that opens up for a true free flow of goods, yet.

The ones leading the EAC must have a headache. There is no solemn peace or gratitude. Only more grievances and more work to fix things. The South Sudanese and the President in Juba must feel the plight of the chair. This time around it isn’t only fixing on issue or a diplomatic spat over some contested rock or policy. No, it is real life consequences and things that can spiral out of hand. There is guns and money involved here and this is why President Kiir needs advisors who can navigate this with care.

The EAC needs mediation and better one than the ones that issued after the 2015 General Elections in Burundi. The Inter-Dialogue that was sponsored there was fruitless and hot-air, which is why the CNDD-FDD isn’t caring about transparency or accountability for its actions. This will not help when Juba calls Gitega and asks for a mediation process between them and Kigali. No, this here will be a prolonged stalemate, unless Mbeki or someone Goodluck Jonathan or something comes with some magic juices to salvage the hurt of the parties.

Alas, that will be needed between Tanzania-Kenya, Uganda is using the mechanisms, but at the same time Nairobi cannot be kiddy about the claims or the end-game. As Dodoma is getting the cash and the export-tariffs through it’s ports instead.

The DRC-Rwanda will be a forever debacle and as long the historical ties between proxies and Kigali exists. This will not be sorted out by the EAC and the EAC Force is already history. The SADC has come in, but we don’t know if it will stop the insurgency or the militias operating in the DRC. Most likely it will not as it has been a root cause of evil for decades now and foreign operates has profited of the slaughter and the “blood resources” of the DRC. That never changes and the EAC will not be able to stop that either.

The EAC seems like a good idea on paper, but when it lack resources, manpower and an army to run it. There is little to add weight other than the President residing on the throne temporarily and the hopes of good gestures. There is a need for humility and respect of fellow peers, but that’s maybe to much to ask, as the rising arrogance and self-serving interests are more important than winning hearts across the border. That’s why neighbours spats and we are seeing these acts happening in our time.

The EAC is maybe crumbling, but that’s not Kiir’s or the South Sudanese fault. They are just at the helm at the wrong time. The ones in office and who carries the heavy load. At one point they might have wished better fortunes, but this is the cards they are dealt.

It is not fair and it never is. There is a need for redemption and for talks. If the parties will, it would be splendid. The cases between Kenya-Uganda and Tanzania-Kenya could be settled rather easily, but the ones between DRC-Rwanda and Burundi-Rwanda is much more hostile. These will take some serious negotiations and dialogue, which would need foreign intervention or possible respected statesmen from far away to support the talks. Peace.

Burundi: Bujumbura ceases all ties with Kigali (Rwanda)

the Burundian minister in charge of internal affairs says #Burundi has suspended all relations with the Rwandan president. “Paul Kagame is a bad neighbor. We have suspended all relations with him until he comes to his senses. He has unhealthy plans” (…) ““He is harboring criminals who are destabilizing #Burundi. All criminals go through his country!”, accused Mr. Niteretse” (SOS Medias Burundi, 11.01.2024).

In a hasty reaction from the CNDD-FDD and the elite of Bujumbura/Gitega, the Burundian government has now closed their borders with Rwanda and suspended all relations with Kigali. This is a result of prolonged tensions and questions of insurgency from the parties.

While Rwanda and the regime in Kigali has claimed not be involved or directly sponsoring it. We know by facts and historical patterns, that the Rwandan authorities or army has helped proxy militias with bases within the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to attack and muster force. Which is what the President and the leaders of Burundi has claimed. They have claimed the Rwandan government have sponsored the Red-Tabara and their cause to uproot the CNDD-FDD in Burundi. Therefore, now it isn’t about dialogue or talks, but action from the Burundian counterparts.

The Rwandan government have come out with a custom statement and “regretted” the decision made by Burundi. However, it hasn’t addressed the counter-claims or the reasons for the closure. Only used free flow of people and business as motivation for the “sadness” of the border closure. Which is interesting in itself.

We have seen how this played out and was a prolonged agony between Rwanda and Uganda not long ago. As the Republic’s stood tall on their principals and needed lots of talks to eventually open up the borders again. The same will be most likely happening here, as they need talks in Luanda and elsewhere to get into a feasible agreement. However, I wouldn’t count on it coming anytime soon. As these things are fickle.

The Burundian President wants to show force and that he can handle his office. He wants to extol power and be at the helm. That’s what he needs right now and the skirmishes or attacks on Burundian soil is damaging his reputation as a leader. That’s why this is a response. We cannot with certainty say that the Rwandan authorities or army is supporting Red-Tabara or other militias, which could attack Burundi. Nevertheless, it wouldn’t be out of the ordinary in 2024…

Alas, that is where Kagame has a problem. We know and he knows that we know. Even if he isn’t responsible for this. His been in the past elsewhere and he has had his men on the ground in the DRC fighting his battles. That’s just a mere fact and he could easily have another proxy hurting his nemesis and advisory in Bujumbura. Because, why not? He did so in Kinshasa, so why not with another neighbour?

Well, that is just mere speculation, but with this knowledge and past aggression. I cannot blame Burundi for acting like this. They are answering Kigali and we know Rwanda will act like a victim. While they should look into the grievances and possibly address it. Especially, if they are concerned about the suspension of ties and closure of borders. That’s up to Kigali to answer the call and find ways to up-ease Bujumbura. However, I wouldn’t count on it.

The EAC won’t matter much here and neither IGAD. The AU will not know how to grasp this and therefore, this will a long stalemate. Peace.

Burundi: Red-Tabara – Resistance pour un Etat de Droit (Red-Tabara) – Communique (03.01.2024)