Opinion: Nkurunziza holding the EAC hostage to protocol, as he boycotted the Heads of State!

Today, there was an obvious boycott from the Burundian government in Arusha in Tanzania. As the scheduled 20th Heads of State Summit of the East African Community was about to happen. Pierre Nkurunziza boycotted the day and showed his defiance to the rest of the Community. Who knows why, but maybe he is worried of what would happen there.

This was established in November in 1999 and since then, all the Heads of State has meet for further integration and for the collective missions for the region. The EAC are clearly at a cross-roads, if that is because of Burundi or because of the leadership at the EAC. Since the Chairman at this point is President Yoweri Kaguta Musveni of Uganda. He got the letters earlier in October 2018, that Pierre Nkurunziza wanted the Summit postponed. However, because of scheduling conflicts, the President Uganda counterpart wanted it to happen.

The EAC Press Statement says:

The 20th Ordinary Meeting of the Summit of the East African Community Heads of State that was slated for Friday, 30th November, 2018 at the Arusha International Conference Centre (AICC) in Arusha, Tanzania has been postponed to a later date. Making the announcement at the AICC’s Simba Hall, the Chairperson of the EAC Council, Hon Dr. Kirunda Kivejinja, said that the Summit would not take place due to a lack of quorum caused by the absence of the Republic of Burundi. “According to Rule 11 of the Rules of Procedure of the Summit of the EAC Heads of State, quorum is made of all Partner States representation which is in consonance with decision making by consensus under Article 12 of the Treaty,” Dr. Kivejinja, who is also Uganda’s 2nd Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of EAC Affairs” (EAC, 30.11.2018).

So, the Heads of State are postponed and the set date is now 27th December 2018. That means a month time, this time we can wonder if the Burundian will bail again. As the Burundian government are planning to prepare for their 2020 Elections and surely drag-out the dialogue without having all the stakeholders.

This was clearly a message from Nkurunziza. As he fears something brewing and doesn’t want to be humiliated or even pressed by neighbors. As he wants a free way of life time presidency like others. President Nkurunziza was invited and known of the date since October from the Secretariat, therefore, the added letters in November was more a stalling tactic. However, this should backfire, as he will be remembered for ditching the EAC.

The EAC who has monitoring and being the mediator with the dialogue in Burundi. The President should be happy it is these chaps who are doing it. As if it was further outside, they wouldn’t accept the tactics used by the Mpaka and the government involvement with force to block others from being part of it.

This is really a sign, as the others showed up and with credentials and ready to continue the agenda of the EAC. However, as Museveni wrote in his last letter to Nkurunziza: “Some matters on the agenda need to be attended to promptly and let us not be held hostage of the rules of procedure”.

That seems like the plan of Nkurunziza… keep the EAC hostage to procedure. Since, he boycotted or bailed the Heads of State today. That is the memo from Bujumbura. Peace.

EAC Summit: Position Paper of the Republic of Burundi, on the 20th Ordinary Summit of East African Community Head of State (29.11.2018)

Burundi: Parti Uprona de l’Opposition – Communique de Presse (27.11.2018)

President Museveni letter to President Nkurunziza concerning EAC Heads of State Meeting 30th November 2018 (25.11.2018)

Burundi: President Nkurunziza letter to President Museveni – “Re: 20th Ordinary Summit of EAC Heads of State – 30th November 2018 in Arusha, The United Republic of Tanzania” (24.11.2018)

Burundi: CNARED-Giriteka – Communique de Presse – Arrestation de Presumes Putschistes ou Precipitation de la Faillite de l’Etat (24.11.2018)

DRC: Is there an escalation of insurgency in the Kivu’s?

In the Democratic Republic of Congo, where the interference and sponsoring of rebellions has been steady in the two recent decades. There are now talks of even more brewing trouble ahead. There been killings of peacekeepers lately, also rising numbers fatalities as well, that has been reported in North Kivu. Wouldn’t be surprised if there was similar numbers compiled on the other province too.

Therefore, the recent spark, the recent trend of wondering if there are something new brewing. Is healthy to ask. There are one force who is new in play, that is the Red-Tabara who only yesterday was reported in killing 18 people in and around Uvira. While the Burundian Forces are following their trail inside the DRC. There is no numbers of how many who is part of the Red-Tabara or their possible camps. Just that they are now also a part of the conflict inside the DRC. There has also been clashes between the FNL (Forces Nationale des Liberation), the rebels of the army. Therefore, the are plenty of obstacles already.

While the Allied Defence Force (ADF) is on a rebranding mission from being a Ugandan Muslim Military Operation, whose trying to invade Uganda. To become a jihadi organization for all of East Africa. The size of their operations is uncertain at this point. These has been steady attacking and killing in Beni. Where they have had massacres and working with other local militias to control the area.

While that is happening, the Uganda People’s Defense Force (UPDF) have deployed a 1000 of their newly trained and recruited LDU to the Uganda-Congolese Border. This is been done as a measure to secure the border. Clearly, also sending a message about the use of the LDU. Who was supposed to be a supportive unit of urban crimes, but now are an extra brigade for a possible warfare in the DRC. That is not a positive a sign. The first report of larger scale deployment was on the 15th October 2018, this might have been an escalation of that. But certainly hits a pattern.

This is proof of movement from two outside forces within the battle-torn and continued warfare in the region. Which seemingly doesn’t have an end. There are also still Mayi-Mayi militias, also Rwandan backed forces within the region too. There is FDLR-FOCA, whose size is uncertain, but bouncing around after a seismic split in 2016. Where in 2018, the DRC Operations of a militia named Mouvement Rwandais pour le Changement Democratique (M.R.C.D) who parts of it came from the FDLR. Who might also be criss-crossing the border region between Burundi/Rwanda and the DRC.

While there is nothing new that there are military movement from Rwanda and Uganda, where there both supply of arms, training and militia men. This being M-23 or other groups who was supported by military supplies from across the border. Therefore, if this would happen again. It wouldn’t be shocking or surprising.

The timing of all of this is perfect again. If it flairs up to extended levels and the government will have to suspend the elections again. So that, the ones running has to post-pone it again. Just in the nick of time to secure more illegal time for Kabila to rule. While so many more lives are taken, just so one man and his cronies can reign supreme.

What is for sure, is that this picture will be materialized and secured with time. What is worrying is the scale and the amount of players involved. As the Burundian forces are now into the mix, the Rwandan with both Ex-Rebels and Militias, who knows what stakes the Ugandan has. Other than adding more forces on the border. All of this is indication of more to come. There will not be silence.

When there is smoke, there is fire. In this instance, I am worried of the escalation and the levels of troops moving. Even as uncertain as it is. Because they have killed peacekeepers, there are foreign supported militias in the Kivu’s and there are tensions in the region. Peace.

Burundi: OLUCOME – Portant sur le Trafic de minierais, une des Source d’Extreme Pauvrete et de Conflits Cycliques au Burundi et dans la Region des Grands Lacs (16.11.2018)

Eritrea: Statement Delivered by Mr. Amanuel Giorgio, Charge d’Affaires, Permanent Mission of Eritrea to the United Nations During the UN Security Council Discussion on the Situation in Somalia (14.11.2018)

Djibouti: H.E. Mr. Mohamed Siad Doualeh Ambassador, Permanent Representative of the Republic of Djibouti to the United Nations before the Security Council on the situation in Somalia (14.11.2018)