“RDF is trained and prepared to fight wars but not to start them with others, but if others make us their problem and choose to start a war with us, that is when we use judgment, determination and training to fight and finish it for them” – President Paul Kagame at the Rwanda Military Academy at the Commissioning Ceremony on the 13th July 2018.
There been twice reported during this month of movement of a possible militia crossed from Cibitoka province from the Kibra forest in Burundi into Nyungwe forest in the Ruhengeri district in Rwanda. Some Burundian sources claim it is Imbonerakure, the Youth Militia out of the CNDD-FDD in the province, and the final claim is that its trained militias from the Force de Defense National du Burundi (FNDB) too. While that is happening, in the Southern Regions of Rwanda, the 31st Brigade and the 4th Division are doing military operations, as reported on the 12th July. So, it is not like various reports shows something is brewing. Hopefully, just puppy-talk, but these regimes are not sweet uncles, but fierce regimes, who has no trouble getting rid of someone in their way.
That is just some of the reports, so it is hard to know what is real. It has been reported that there was Rwandan Burundi based militia attacked this area in the 1st July 2018 and that on the 13th July 2018, that the same group came back.
There been long speculations and rumors of border clashes. But who would be favor of these reports?
Do the Rwandan government want a war with Burundi, as their economy is crippled and the dictator is a mad-Max, whose getting rid of enemies like other trash garbage. It is not like Rwandan dictator is anything different, he has left his opposition to rot in the prison as well. So them both are acting in-different to the voices within their republics. Therefore, non of these regimes are positive for the freedom or liberty. So, I would not defend anyone of these. Pierre Nkurunziza have no problem to send people to their demise, neither would Paul Kagame, he would put someone into a fatal tragedy for standing in his way.
Nevertheless, as the government needs fear, they need wars and enemies to act strong. That the Rwandan government could need a conflict, could consolidate Kagame even more, as he grew up in conflict and came as a General, whose never left power. Nkurunziza came out of a civil war and has now soon gotten rid of all his enemies internally too. These two would need a conflict to gain popularity, because it is just so far fear and self-inflicted deposing of citizens can go. By the time all opposition are gone or in exile.
Certainly, both regimes would need and use this to their favor. However, the Burundian Authorities have said it isn’t true. While the Rwandan government has verified it. This has happen before. You can question, if the Rwandan want to create a crisis and an excuse to attack Burundi. Does the Burundian government want to blame Rwanda and make sure they can attack the neighbor?
As both governments are working to kill this off. You can question why all these reports are coming up and who is fooling who?
What is the play and whose playing? What is the end-game?
I really wonder. Because both parties are saying: “no it wasn’t us and we’re not involved”. While both are sort of blaming the other parties. We will clearly see the signs and see where this goes. Who will use the other party.
However, it is hard to know who is right, as both are using their authorities to counter-claim. The Rwandan has happen through the Police Authority, while the Burundian has claimed it through the army. Certainly, one of them is lying. While in Rwanda, there been military operations going-on, without connections to the possible insurgence from Burundi.
That is why you can wonder if Rwanda are using the Burundi excuse for their own activity? But that is just speculations. Just like the rest. Nothing is really verified and both government like to keep things to their chest and secrets, also not like free media is free to report either. Therefore, the sources are shady at best. Peace.