This isn’t the first time a sponsored militia goes separate ways. The Forces Democratiques de Liberation du Rwanda (FDLR) have created many different outfits and the biggest currently of those is the Rwandan Movement for Democratic Change (MRCD).
In July this year the Rwanda National Congress is split into two parts. This being the RNC run by Kayumba Nyamwasa, who has support from Kampala. While in Canada, the diaspora of RNC have launched the Rwanda Alliance for Change (RAC) on the 6th July 2020. The signatories to the manifesto, which is also online is Bellamin Bakamira, Tabitha Gwiza, Achille Kamana, Anicet Karege, Saleh Musoni Karuranga, Pacifique Mukobwajana, Dr. Etienne Ndagijimana, Jean Paul Turayishimye and Benoit Umuhoza.
Clearly Nyamwasa is losing his support in Canada and that is weakening the RNC. The RNC have been run by him and with his orders. That has over time caused friction and therefore, the new one is created. We can wonder, if the diaspora based RAC will try to convene a meeting in Kisoro or elsewhere in Uganda too. As the RNC have been recruiting in Uganda.
The MRCD is already weakened, as they caused issues for Kigali last year. However, we can wonder how the operations are going. As they have been known for attacks from Burundi. While the RNC have only lost people after high ranking officials held talks in Uganda last year.
This has all created diplomatic entanglements between Kigali and Kampala. As the proxy wars are hitting home. The Kigali based diplomats wants Kampala to stop supporting efforts to undermine their reign. While Kampala doesn’t listen to it. They are continuing it.
We can wonder, other then t he main objective to topple the Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF). Like all of these outfits are claiming is their will. While they cannot work together for too long.
Now that its another militia with goal and objectives in the sphere. That for some reason will be around. We can wonder how big it is and where it will recruit. Even the manpower and their planned operation. Other than going after the RPF and President Kagame.
The only looser here is Nyamwasa and his allies. They are loosing support and getting another competition. While Kigali will get it easier, as there are smaller fractions and will have less suction. It will also be easier for intelligence operations get a whiff of what is going on.
However, we cannot know until more information is out. Clearly, there are shady works being done behind closed doors. Nevertheless, 2020 continues to deliver and we can wonder what costs the RAC will have. Peace.
This Friday, there was reports of killings, of insurgency in the Musanze district in the border district to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). It isn’t new that militias and rebels are crossing borders from Rwanda into the DRC or returns back. What is striking is the level of deaths and the favourable reporting from the authorities on the Rwandan side.
This is happening the same week, as the Rwandan authorities has displayed 25 Rwandan National Congress members in the Courts. The RNC, FDLR and MRCD have been working together of late and this weekends raid to be in response to this. However, that is just speculation. But wouldn’t be shocking that the RNC/FDLR/MRCD would react in this way after the losses of 25 members taken from them by the help of allies within the DRC.
Just take a look!
“19 Assailants responsible for killing civilians in Musanze On Friday, have been killed by Security organs, according to Rwanda Police’s statement. 5 more suspected assailants responsible for the attack have been captured Rwanda Police says the hunt is still on going” (Rwanda Broadcasting Agency, 06.10.2019).
“As for Musanze sector, it is next inside Musanze district, raising more questions as to how the attackers managed to reach this far inside Musanze district without detection. By virtue of it being such a key economic source for the country, and proximity to DR Congo, the region has obvious heavy military presence. There will be more questions as to how such an attack could have happened. According to initial reports from local villagers who were fleeing from the area into other sectors and Musanze, the attackers were speaking Kinyarwanda, with heavy accent. The villagers also said the assailants were rebels of the democratic forces for the liberation of Rwanda (FDLR)“ (The Chronicles Rwanda, 05.10.2019).
We can really wonder whose behind this, even if the Rwandan authorities will tell or the militias itself. Because, the militias would like to take credit to boost their moral and say they won over the state at one battle. Even if the state has killed several of their members and now have detained 5 more. Surely, the militia in question bled a bit out of this, but the state has done too. Even if their numbers are kept close its chest.
What is odd, is that the M.R.C.D., nor RNC or FDLR have taken any responsibility. If it was them, than they should have stated something or through their channels. However, it is silent. They have enough backers. Whose been peddling information over the years. That if they want it out. They get it out. But now its nothing. The state only showing signs of “victory”, even if the victories part is lacking. Since, it is only loss of lives and nothing substantially gained.
We only have the little information from the Chronicles, but nothing else. As the state are not saying anything. Neither, the possible militia behind it all. Not like when the MRCD did their raid a little while back. They took all responsibility and wanted to tell stories. Now it is utter silence.
We cannot know at this point, it is mere speculation, until the verified reports are out. But what is striking is that these issues are reoccurring and at a rate, that is not favourable to Kagame and his authorities. Peace.
There was a meeting in Uganda in December 2018 between Philemon Mateke and leaders from the FDLR and the RNC, which is both rebels working within the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). These leaders got captured on the border between Uganda and the DRC late in December. That after the reported alleged meeting between them and the government official Mateke. Than, with a special message by President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni who wanted to find a lasting solution and use them for his means.
Therefore, this news must be a backfire to the meddling and the interference of Museveni in the DRC. As his supported people by the CMI and ISO isn’t that wise or smart. As they get captured and now weeks after. Are taken into custody by the Rwandan government. So, the squabble and in-fighting with the neighbour continues.
“Le Forge Fils Bazeye, the spokesperson of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) rebels, who captured in December last year, was sneaked out by Rwandan agents. Bazeye, the rebel intelligence chief, has been in detention in the capital Kinshasa. On Friday last week, Rwandan agents paid off guards who were manning the prison and got him out. Meanwhile, Congo army also arrested Col Tawimbi Richard, a member of National Congress [RNC] headed by former Rwandan army chief of staff, Gen Kayumba Nyamwasa, who is based in South Africa” (edge.ug, 29.01.2019).
With this in mind, there is definitely more happening behind the scenes than we know. That there are plans and support behind closed doors. Where there are delivery and plans, as the militias gain strength and new reinforcement. They are able to be persistence and get weapons. This also, as the other groups has also said they are wanting to retaliate against Kigali and Kagame.
Therefore, there are more happening than we understand or can grasp. As there are more sinister powers being used by warlords and presidents, who are warlords with vast supported armies. They are using their connections and their missions, while they are giving way to militias to further their wealth and their power in the region. That is why the secret meeting of December 2018 and the aftermath. Says something about the things at play.
Where Museveni isn’t succeeding, but still playing with fire and creating instability, to ensure his vision and mission there. Gods knows how much violence and killings, he needs to gain before his time is over. Peace.