There are these days when the ripple effect of one single vote, of one single event and change that makes such a big difference, not only locally but also internationally. There are these days that have come and gone. One of those days we’re the majority of the United Kingdom citizens vote to ‘Leave’ the EU on the 23rd June 2016. It could been anticipated as the fear of immigrations, the years of fear-mongering and hatred for the control of legal and regulatory affairs happening in chambers of Commission and Bureaucracies in Brussels. While the Conservative Party and Liberal-Democratic Party, together with the Opposition party Labour was all for the ‘Remain’, the government went on all cylinders with arrogance expecting that the numbers and the humanity, solidarity and the European idea would be already installed in the British population.
The reactions on the remain side have been blasting as well, as the Shadow Cabinet of Jeremy Corbyn and his Labour Party, have either been sacked by Corbyn or they have resigned. Right before that, the Prime Minister David Cameron has resigned as Executive and also as the Party Leader of the Conservative Party. Also the Scottish have reacted as they in the late Independence Vote, voted to remain in the UK as they knew they would have a secure in the European Union. So that the Scottish National Party (SNP) Nicola Sturgeon. She have reassured the Scottish public that because of this they will see into a new Independence Vote for Scotland, as they want to be directly part of the EU and be a Member State.
While the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) leader Nigel Farage have had his best days in his life, he has the smug face when he was saying the day after that the numbers of people voted to get control and the money back from the EU; while he now moments after regress those statements as he knows that the millions of quid’s will not be reversed directly back to access the austerity.
He said it in this brutal way:
“No, I can’t and I would never have made that claim – it was one of the mistakes that the Leave campaign made” (…)”It wasn’t one of my adverts. I think they made a mistake. They made a mistake in doing that” (…) “We have a £10 billion a year, £34 million day featherbed – that is going to be free money we can spend on the NHS, or schools, or whatever it is.” (Dunne, John & Micklethwaithe, 24.06.2016). So the buses with ‘£350 million a week back to the NHS if they left the EU’… so quickly the words of right-wing politicians change their tune. It’s like their promises and words vanish into thin air.
While Boris Johnson the other leader who wants to coup d’état the Conservative Party and become the coming PM, he trying to change his rhetoric and sound more sane and act as a politician and not a megaphone for the fears of immigrations and job-losses for British citizens as he have proclaimed for months.
Therefore Boris Johnson all of sudden wrote this: “It is said that those who voted Leave were mainly driven by anxieties about immigration. I do not believe that is so. After meeting thousands of people in the course of the campaign, I can tell you that the number one issue was control – a sense that British democracy was being undermined by the EU system, and that we should restore to the people that vital power: to kick out their rulers at elections, and to choose new ones” (…) “We should be incredibly proud and positive about the UK, and what it can now achieve. And we will achieve those things together, with all four nations united. We had one Scotland referendum in 2014, and I do not detect any real appetite to have another one soon; and it goes without saying that we are much better together in forging a new and better relationship with the EU – based on free trade and partnership, rather than a federal system” (…) “There is every cause for optimism; a Britain rebooted, reset, renewed and able to engage with the whole world. This was a seismic campaign whose lessons must be learnt by politicians at home and abroad” (Johnson, Boris, 26.06.2016 – ‘I cannot stress too much that Britain is part of Europe – and always will be’ – Daily Telegraph).
So while Boris Johnson thinks he can be giant brute of English man and toy around with the Scots as they have done for 300 years, the reality of the Scottish wish to remain comes to surface as the Scottish voted over 60 % to remain and their leader have also spoken her peace to the world, which does counter Johnson and her words.
This is the words from the First Minster Nicola Sturgeon: “Looking at it from a logical perspective, I find it hard to believe that there wouldn’t be that requirement” (…) “I suspect that the UK government will take a very different view on that and we’ll have to see where that discussion ends up” (…) “If the Scottish Parliament was judging this on the basis of what’s right for Scotland then the option of saying look we’re not to vote for something that’s against Scotland’s interest, of course that’s got to be on the table” (…) “Ultimately it is parliament’s decision whether we repeal the 1972 European Communities Act or whether we don’t” (…) “Well I don’t know if that will be possible but what I am determined to do is to explore all possible options to give effect to how people in Scotland voted and to protect Scotland’s interests, to avoid us being taken out of the European Union against our will with all of the deeply damaging and painful consequences that that will entail” (…) “I am not starting from the premise of saying it has got to be independence, I am starting from the premise of what do we need to do to protect Scotland’s interests but if it does appear to be obvious that the only way we can protect Scotland’s interests is by looking again at independence then that’s an option that Scotland has to have” (Gardham, Magnus, 26.06.2016 – ‘Nicola Sturgeon: Holyrood could block Brexit’ – Herald Scotland).
So already now can see the stalemate between Holyrood and the Whitehall of London, as Boris Johnson is not in sync with the feeling across the border where the Scottish is unsure of their place little more isolated from the European Union. Though Nigel Farage haven’t commented directly because he just wanted the islands independent, but not knowing to what extent; while the ‘Leave’ campaign doesn’t seem to clearly know the terms and the negotiations, as they have not even cleared the message of the axing the Union.
So here is some brief words on the Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty of 2007 and got ratified in 2009. Says this:
“A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament” (…) “he Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period” (Lisbon-Treaty.org).
Without with that in mind, with the crisis in the Labour Party and the Opposition that haven’t been in while, also the Conservative Party where the ‘Brexit regime’ or Brexit Government would be put in place. As they will recharge for a new government who will work on the Brexit and clear the negotiations with the EU, while Jean-Claude Juncker wanted it happen swiftly and also other wanted to make sure it happens quickly, while certain pundits think that the EU Commission and EU Parliament would give them the Greece Treatment where the punishment and economic transgression could be harsh for the British Islands and United Kingdom, as the EU want to set an example, to make sure the other countries does not leave Union.
With that in mind the Londoners have also reacted to, as the financial center of United Kingdom and the capital, who overwhelmingly voted to remain, are strictly economically connected with EU and Brussels, as they have the same feeling as the Scottish and even Northern Island, that are trading and exporting to the EU. Just as the Stock Exchange also still reeling: “The FTSE 100 index UKX, -1.24% dropped 0.6% to 6,105.76, building on 3.2% slide from Friday.” (Sjolin, Sara, 27.06.2016 ‘FTSE 100 slides as Brexit continues to spook traders’ – Market Watch).
Certainly the numbers are going up and down, over time they will be clearly when there is leadership certainty on the islands, when the Government, the Shadow Cabinet and the Scottish and Northern Ireland have made their mind up. This together with the possibility of two year long negotiations with the Union to clear the regulations, the status of affairs and the trade-agreement with the European Continent.
While the EU programs in Wales are in jeopardy after the Brexit vote, the nation in the UK who together with England voted majority for the ‘Leave. They have put themselves into a pickle, even if the MPs from Wales haven’t gone out as the Scottish or Northern Ireland to reassess the situation. The EU Programs in question is the Erasmus Program, Horizon 2020, CAP to Farmers and Structural Funds under 2014-2020, all of these programs are giving substantial funds to Welsh public and Welsh government institutions. This is only in Wales; we can be assured that there are programs supported through the EU in England, Northern Ireland and Scotland as well. That no coffers in the British Virgin Island (BVI) can save in a heartbeat.
That both campaigns seemed to be wrong in the attitude, xenophobia or the scaremongering of defaulting economic prospects as they would leave the Union. That is now proof that there are many questions and many things to clear, as the table are now turning, the cards are played and the people have to react to the result of the vote. Brexit have created a leadership questioning both in government and opposition, as the Labour Party are in shambles as the negative result is used to topple Jeremy Corbyn, while the Conservative Party trying to find their way as the result hit the face of Cameron with an iron fist. The reality is that the mourning of the ‘Remain’ side, just have to stop and the ‘Leave’ side have to be humble, as they have address the new reality and fix the stalemate between the EU and United Kingdom.
Because this will be a saga continuing for two years or longer depending on when they hit the button and start the transition, actually apply for the Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. Those who thinks this is just nationalism and xenophobia, this is so much more as the ones who have waited for the crippling EU to run, will see their status unsecured. While the ability to agree on the free-trade and the common-market opportunity and still being on the outside of the Union.
The UK, will be turmoil as the strength of the leadership and the fallouts will come forward, the plans to topple the leadership positions and also reaffirming old squabbles just with fresh blood as the Scottish, Northern-Ireland and London even questioning their place as an outsider to Brussels, while the England and Wales voted gladly for the Union. The Remain voters have to live side by side the ones who votes for Leave. The question is how the psychology of the economic market and the acts of European Union Commission. If they will make an example of them or be gentlemen from Central Europe, as Jean-Claude Juncker have not acted gentleman or talked in a fashion of aggression, as he was himself slapped in the face; the Brexit is a bullet to the European Union that he leads, the Luxembourgian who’s pride have to fall and give way to the will of the British people. If the European Union is a peace project and not just a powerful bureaucracy than they have to be gentle and act accordingly, but if they want to fragment Europe more and play hardball with UK Gov. than they certainly will give more way to the Right-Wing nationalistic forces in Europe, instead of finding ways to bring unity of the continent. European Union with this in mind with the current rising of the nationalistic movements and xenophobic fear for the immigrants and the current economic austerity that are hitting the continent and can be either a gift or curse.
So with all of this in mind, the European Union, the Government of United Kingdom and the British MPs and British bureaucracy have to take steps in negotiations and agreements with the EU, while becoming an outsider to the Brussels, the EU should show character if they are really an organization for European peace and unity, not just their own agenda to control the Continent or be a statutory organization that the people might respect. There are reasons others then border-control, immigrations and economy for why the English and Welsh in majority voted to ‘Leave’, for the simple reason of getting the decisions made from Whitehall instead of Brussels. That is something the EU have to think about because the same feeling might be in Madrid, Lisbon, Rome or anywhere else where the nationalistic and right-wing politicians will use the poor display of EU towards the Brexit, will fuel the fire for yet another separation. Peace.
Press Release No. 16/303
June 24, 2016
Ms. Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), issued the following statement today:
“We take note of the decision by the people of the United Kingdom. We urge the authorities in the U.K. and Europe to work collaboratively to ensure a smooth transition to a new economic relationship between the U.K. and the EU, including by clarifying the procedures and broad objectives that will guide the process”.
“We strongly support commitments of the Bank of England and the ECB to supply liquidity to the banking system and curtail excess financial volatility. We will continue to monitor developments closely and stand ready to support our members as needed.”
“In a free and democratic process, the British people have expressed their wish to leave the European Union. We regret this decision but respect it. This is an unprecedented situation but we are united in our response. We will stand strong and uphold the EU’s core values of promoting peace and the well-being of its peoples. The Union of 27 Member States will continue. The Union is the framework of our common political future. We are bound together by history, geography and common interests and will develop our cooperation on this basis. Together we will address our common challenge to generate growth, increase prosperity and ensure a safe and secure environment for our citizens. The institutions will play their full role in this endeavour”.
“We now expect the United Kingdom government to give effect to this decision of the British people as soon as possible, however painful that process may be. Any delay would unnecessarily prolong uncertainty. We have rules to deal with this in an orderly way. Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union sets out the procedure to be followed if a Member State decides to leave the European Union. We stand ready to launch negotiations swiftly with the United Kingdom regarding the terms and conditions of its withdrawal from the European Union. Until this process of negotiations is over, the United Kingdom remains a member of the European Union, with all the rights and obligations that derive from this. According to the Treaties which the United Kingdom has ratified, EU law continues to apply to the full to and in the United Kingdom until it is no longer a Member”.
“As agreed, the ‘New Settlement for the United Kingdom within the European Union’, reached at the European Council on 18-19 February 2016, will now not take effect and ceases to exist. There will be no renegotiation. As regards the United Kingdom, we hope to have it as a close partner of the European Union also in the future. We expect the United Kingdom to formulate its proposals in this respect. Any agreement, which will be concluded with the United Kingdom as a third country, will have to reflect the interests of both sides and be balanced in terms of rights and obligations.”
“The UK and the EU entered uncharted waters Friday after the country voted to leave the bloc. Shortly after the result, Prime Minister David Cameron announced his intention to resign in three months” (France 24 English, 2016)
“EU/ UK split must start as soon as possible, however possible” (Euro News, 2016)
“So it is not in the interest of Britain to get out of this terrible Europe,” (…) ”So by leaving the EU while staying in the Single Market, you’re effectively deferring to an alien force in Brussels which is collapsing because you’ve left. How clever is that?” – Yannis Varoufakis (4th March 2016, yanisvaroufakis.eu).
This is a landmark day in the United Kingdom and Europe. I know the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) and the other immigration scaremongers will celebrate their ‘victory’. Let me be clear, I have never liked the European Union or the way it have had the ability to control the Europe from Brussels. So I am far from the men and woman who fears the unknown and the immigrants that are fleeing from war, conflict and economic instability elsewhere, something that has happen all through human history.
I have not enjoyed how the Conservative Party or the Liberal Democratic Party ways of addressing the Brexit either, as they have nearly said in so many words that the United Kingdom if they voted for departure from Brussels they would become a pariah state and closer to closure of the trades between the British Islands and the rest of Europe. Like all of a sudden the Multi-National Companies and the flow of international monies to the City of London would stop overnight… Something I doubt, because the greed of the economy and the international corporations would like to still sell fizzy-water and pre-made stew to the British consumer.
The idea that the Remain was so sure that their tactic of pulling numbers and using the moral high-ground and certainty that the United Kingdom’s population would all follow the line of the current leadership, was a high risk, as there been dissidents and growing insecurity as the NHS and others benefits been cut through austerity and the fear-mongering of European free-riders in the Kingdom have continued. Something that PM David Cameron have known about all-along and accept while Finance Minister George Osborne have smiled and grinned showed stats on Sky News and made assumptions that if UK joins Norway, Iceland and Switzerland they would end up with the Stone Age Economics instead of the hedge-fund infused laisses faire economy of our day.
The Brexit will have ripple-effect and the far-right movements will strive on their recent victory, though the ones like me who stands for Sovereign nations and Sovereign rights. They are another place in reality than the ones who fears the immigrants and eats on it. The vultures and culture fearing people who have then thinking that the Europe will be better with only ‘traditional’ Europeans. They have in my opinion lost the plot and misunderstanding the matters at hand.
“Today, there are speculative forces in the markets much bigger and more powerful. And they will be eager to exploit any miscalculations by the British government or British voters,” – George Soros
The Remain have forced itself with Economic numbers that can be questioned. The matter of the instability and currency of the British Pound, while the voting in different areas proves that the Scotland, Northern Ireland and Scottish Islands voted to Remain, while major areas like Wales and England in majority voted to exit the European Union. So that David Cameron resign with the loss, while waiting for Jeremy Corbyn Labour Party Leader fate is not yet signed.
While Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson will be all giddy. They have a giant victory on their hand, but created a uncertainty about the negotiations between the UK Government and the EU Commissions, EU Parliament and the EU Organizations towards the new positions of being a bystander to the bureaucracies of Brussels.
The ability of independent Islands and the closeness for the British to the continent have always been a strange relationship in their politics, from the far-fetched Tudor dynasties into the modern day, where they want the EU monies, but want to be controlling borders with all kind of tools, instead of the freedom of movement people from the continent towards the British Islands. As the Government of UK have done all kind of investment in Calais to secure that they can find illegal immigrations through the transport there and the UKIP and other have said there no-control of the cars and lorries there. So the scares and fear politics have been staggering.
That U.S. President Obama, which Germany Chancellor Merkel and other heavy-weights have at some point said that the UK should stay in EU, the initial response has been that the UK would be better off in the Union. Something that is expected as the Germany is the one who have had Iron-Fist on Brussels, while taming the Greek counterparts and meddling in their affairs while the Greek country have had to sell their silver for fiscal loans from the EU and IMF. The Grexit would have also caused turmoil, but not in the same level of Brexit.
Brexit is a more central economy in Europe and have a clearer place in the Union, therefore they have special position and also could decide to swallow laws and swallow regulation from Brussels. Now they will be negotiations between the UK and EU as their new role in the Brussels organizations and the EU Parliament.
European Union would not like this and have been expressed that they will not give in to the demands of United Kingdom if they would vote against the Union. That is expected that the Union would play hardball after being stripped of the title and losing one of their high-graded members, as they have all along during the recent years tried to get more on board, now they lost a key-member as the United Kingdom.
The Brexit will create a new Europe, as one of the key political forces and economic centres like London will be left more alone and trade their new reality with the European Union, as they will follow the will of the People, they will be in a place like the Norwegian, Swiss, Icelanders and other smaller nations that are partly in the EU and on the Outside at the same time.
The EU does not want to lose the City of London and the business centres of the United Kingdom, while the UK Government and the Parliament of Whitehall have to respond with cautions and mark the future policies from British and the European Union. European Union have for long acted without honour towards the nations who have struggled after the recession of 2008 and acted with fierce fiscal policies while the German and French have come better out of the negotiations.
This is now the role and the ability of people’s will, together with determined politicians from Britain that can determine the fate of the British Pound, the British Commonwealth and the distance between Britain and the rest of Europe, as they will try to find their path after a critical vote on economics and sovereign questions. The henchmen and the strength of the kingdom can only be clear as long as they restrict their rhetoric and take the high-road.
United Kingdom and the British people together with their relevance on the continent; as United Kingdom will try to find their new place in Europe and in European business, together with the trade-agreements and other allies on the continent as the new day will bring new questions and new forged agreements to settle the disputed withdrawal from the European Union. Peace.