This wasn’t surprising since the hidden reports from the Department for Existing the European Union (DexEU), the Secretary David Davis and Prime Minister Theresa May wanted this hidden. Because they knew these numbers and the speculations would stop. I was expecting bad numbers, but these are serious consequences. While the campaigning for leaving seemingly like it was a pick and mix. Now the reality is there. The United Kingdom will loose out and hit the people in real way. The independence might be there, but the economy and the hardships starts when they have left. The Tories must have been worried about it, because they knew about the damage this can cause to the public. The rich will skate off to a tax-haven. If it is the British Virgin Island or Cayman Islands. Who knows, but this has been all hidden because they knew they we’re hurting themselves.
I will take the numbers crushed from Britain Stays, which has analyzed the numbers so they give a meaning. I’m not a grand fan of EU, but I don’t like people are without knowledge of the consequences of their actions. Which the politicians in the UK did to their people when they had their referendum. So the people voted blindly without knowing the possible outcome. The Brexit will cost.
First deal is the famous “No-Deal” will give an 8% lower GDP, a total of 2,800,000 jobs lost and an economy losing 156b pounds. If that isn’t dire a consequence, let me put it in perspective. Since the population numbers of UK of 2016 said there was living in Birmingham (1,200,000), Glasgow (800,000) and Leeds (760,000). So all of these major towns would be ghost-towns with no jobs. That says the possible “No-Deal”, no work for the population of cities or towns of Birmingham, Glasgow and Leeds. If that isn’t worrying, and sending you a signal of how bad it is. Then your blind to amount of people hurt by this sort of policy with the EU.
Second deal is the Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement, which means being outside the Single Market and Customs Union. It will lower the GDP with 5% and economy will go down with 99b pounds yearly. The job losses here too is significant, the numbers are estimated to be 1,750,000 jobs gone. That is like all people living in Birmingham (1,200,000), Sheffield (518,000) and Hucknall (32,000). So you cannot say this deal is good for the United Kingdom either, its better, but not all roses and candy either.
Third deal is the infamous “Soft Brexit” where the UK will be in the Single Market through the EEA, a place where UK cannot make the rules and have any say within the EU. This will damage the economy too, but less. First it will damage the GDP by 2% and loose 39bn pounds yearly. The amount of job-loss is estimated to be 700,000 jobs. To put it into perspective its the amount of people living in Bristol (617,000) and Burnley (82,000). So the losses aren’t as big, but the estimates and pain of it is still dear. Not even this one is a good idea.
Fourth deal is “Remain”, the one giving up the whole thing and continuing like it is. Where the GDP will remain at the levels it is the day and it will not have any impact on the current work market. No one will lose their jobs and prepare any ghost-towns.
Even me who is not a fan of the EU and the whole ordeal can see easily after the assessment reports that been hidden from the public on purpose. Because this is damaging information. The sort of tales that should shatter the glasses and break the pulse. Will the Tories really hurt the amounts of people combining the cities of Birmingham, Glasgow and Leeds. Is that the final destination or will they make it less costly?
These numbers should be carefully understood and put in perspective to prove the danger of Brexit. Not just think that Independence is all cool, but also that it costs. Not just for poorest, but for whole towns and cities. We can ask how much poison is the British people about to take or wanting to take? Peace.
David Davis, the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union and running the Department for Exiting the European Union (DEXEU) who is working for a sustainable and as good as possible agreement between United Kingdom (UK) and European Union (EU). Even as all the months has passed and the EU and UK came with a Joint Report last week, ending the Phase 1 of Negotiations. Still, that doesn’t seem enough for the Secretary Davis. Who has concurred differently apparently, as the EU and UK should be focused on ironing out more difference and making sure their status is good after the departure of Membership by the UK. Seemingly, Davis is more busy creating more havoc.
On a BBC Interview at the Andrew Marr show on the 10th December 2017, he answered this:
“it’s been made clear by Number 10 already, so that’s not actually new. The second element about this is the other areas. Now look, one of the things we have had as a major objective, a major negotiating objective for the British government and we don’t normally lay our red lines out in public, that’s one of
the things I’ve always said, is we want to protect the peace process and we also want to protect Ireland from the impact of Brexit for them. So we – you know – this was a statement of intent more than anything else. It was much more a statement of intent than it was a legally enforceable thing” (BBC, Andrew Marr Show, 2017).
So he significantly downplayed the joint report that was fixed between UK and EU that was signed on the 8th December 2017. Therefore, it just took two days after signing and agreeing between the partners, before the one leaving downplayed the whole agreement between them.
The start of that agreement specify this:
“This report is put forward with a view to the meeting of the European Council (Article 50) of 14-15 December 2017. Under the caveat that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, the joint commitments set out in this joint report shall be reflected in the Withdrawal Agreement in full detail. This does not prejudge any adaptations that might be appropriate in case transitional arrangements were to be agreed in the second phase of the negotiations, and is without prejudice to discussions on the framework of the future relationship” (EU/UK, 2017).
Seemingly, the Secretary is not so good with details, since the Joint Report will be reflected in the Withdrawal Agreement, meaning that the words and the specifics be a bit altered, but the reality is that the ideals of the Joint Report will be mirrored in the end. Therefore, the words of David Davis is reckless. Considering the commitments the United Kingdom has done by signing and agreeing on the Joint Report. Its like he brushing over the importance of ending Phase I to join the negotiations at Phase II.
That is why European Union are striking back at this towards Davis, who clearly doesn’t what his actions does to the Union they are leaving. This are joint resolutions that are attacking and addressing the misconceptions of Davis. First amendment made by the Joint MEPs which says:
“Is of the opinion that the report allows for the negotiations to move on to the second phase and recommends that the European Council acts accordingly, but believes that negotiations must be connected in good faith and is or the opinion that negotiations can only progress during the second phase if the UK government also fully respect the commitments it made in the Joint Report and they are fully translated into the draft Withdrawal Agreement” (Joint Motion for Article 2 on the state of play of negotiations with the United Kingdom, 2017).
So the MEPs of European Union in various parties are reacting with force and wanting the EU to sanction the words writing the Joint Report and take it seriously. But they have more important issue to amend:
“Whereas comments made like those by David Davis calling the outcome of phase I of the negotiations a mere “statement of intent”, risk to undermine the good faith that has been built during the negotiations” (Joint Motion for Resolution on the state of play of negotiations with the United Kingdom, 2017).
Clearly, the EU is not having it with this sort of foul play. They are not accepting any cheap trick concerning the withdrawal of UK. The EU MEPs and leaders who has written these motions to secure the developments are moving forward and with respect to the things already agreed upon. We can see that David Davis wasn’t acting wise, when he is trying to forge an agreement that fits both parties. Clearly, Davis are only thinking of his own career and not of how it makes him look elsewhere.
That Theresa May has something to answer for in Brussels later this week is clearly. When Phase II is coming and the secretary in charge from their negotiation team has made a mockery of the Phase I. He did it on BBC and on a live TV-show. Typical recklessness of the Brexiteers and their campaigns too. Just like they did with facts concerning the Brexit before the polls as well. Same thing, just more dire now, since the opposite party, the one they are leaving will not be so helpful if you disgrace them days ahead of negotiations.
However, Davis like to put some more gasoline on the fire and see how much it burns. At least that is how it looks like and with his previous actions as well. Instead of acting with some tact and some consideration. He is blatantly undermining the efforts done by both EU and UK. This could have been a good start for Phase II and the needed details before an agreement. Therefore, the reflection of the Joint Report shall and should naturally be a part of the Withdrawal Agreement. It is not just a mere statement, it is the pre-binding text for the coming agreement. Putting context and perspective on how the actual agreement will be. Peace.
EU/UK – ‘Joint report from the negotiators of the European Union and the United Kingdom Government on progress during phase 1 of negotiations under Article 50 TEU on the United Kingdom’s orderly withdrawal from the European Union’ (08.12.2017)
Yesterday, the Brexit negotiations made some progress finally. The negotiations between European Union and United Kingdom, as United Kingdom are leaving the Union during the year of 2019. As that is happening, there are needed for agreements and deals to secure movement and trade between the continent and the island kingdom. That will not happen automatically, but has to happen with agreements between them. Therefore, after lots of months with no key movement. Yesterday it was finally something real that was delivered between them. Not that it has solved much, but it shows progress and need for continued presence of consultations to find solutions for the parties.
“Union citizens who in accordance with Union law legally reside in the UK, and UK nationals who in accordance with Union law legally reside in an EU27 Member State by the specified date, as well as their family members as defined by Directive 2004/38/EC who are legally resident in the host State by the specified date, fall within the scope of the Withdrawal Agreement (for personal scope related to frontier workers, see paragraph 15, and for social security, see paragraph 28)” (EU/UK, P: 3, 2017).
This should at least give rest to all citizens if they are British or European, that their rights within United Kingdom is not revoked and he same with UK in the EU. This gives a leeway to the citizens of both EU and UK. They are safe and sound. There will not be a problem between them after UK leaves.
“In the absence of agreed solutions, as set out in the previous paragraph, the United Kingdom will ensure that no new regulatory barriers develop between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom, unless, consistent with the 1998 Agreement, the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly agree that distinct arrangements are appropriate for Northern Ireland. In all circumstances, the United Kingdom will continue to ensure the same unfettered access for Northern Ireland’s businesses to the whole of the United Kingdom internal market” (…) “Both Parties will establish mechanisms to ensure the implementation and oversight of any specific arrangement to safeguard the integrity of the EU Internal Market and the Customs Union” (EU/UK, P: 8, 2017).
The Irish question that was stopped by a phone-call earlier this month shows how hard it was settle this text. Since the European Union, Irish Republic and the United Kingdom had to be collectively together on the agreement, that fits the paradigm of all parties. If it was the UK, Irish and the EU. That the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) have secured their place, but at the same time. The Irish have made sure to make no troubles on the borders for now. This has been hectic for the Tories and United Kingdom. While the EU have followed the wishes of the Irish, since they are a Member State.
“On ensuring continuity in the availability of goods placed on the market under Union law before withdrawal both Parties recognise the need to provide legal certainty and minimise disruption to business and consumers. Both Parties have agreed the principles that the goods placed on the market under Union law before withdrawal may freely circulate on the markets of the UK and the Union with no need for product modifications or re-labelling; be put into service where provided in Union law, and that the goods concerned should be subject to continued oversight” (EU/UK, P: 14, 2017)
Therefore, the United Kingdom, will even as they are leaving making sure they are following EU Law on Consumer and Trade, as they want to be sure that all markets and products still are on the shelves as they leave. This means, that the UK still will follow procedure and regulations from Brussels concerning corporations and labeling, all sort of economic activity. Since they will have to do this, to be sure to have imports and exports of all kind. If it is financial services or products themselves will be made sure to be there, even after the UK left the Union.
The ones that believed it would be striking difference between the UK outside of the EU and the ones inside. Are mistaken, especially when considering the first joint report delivered the public yesterday. Its more of the same, but some minor changes. When it comes to trading right now, they still have to comply to Brussels.
I didn’t look into so much the Financial Dispute, since that is already been discussed in the media and been into, as it is natural while ending a genuine partnership and membership, that you pay the obligations and the agreed upon years within institutions that has been built while being apart of the Union itself. Therefore, the texts there wasn’t that interesting. It was more significant, that the Market Place has to comply with Brussels. That Irish got their wish on the border, even if it not 100% Official, as it is still not binding agreement. It still shows how much the UK has given and how little they have gained with the meetings with the EU. Peace.
EU/UK – ‘Joint report from the negotiators of the European Union and the United Kingdom Government on progress during phase 1 of negotiations under Article 50 TEU on the United Kingdom’s orderly withdrawal from the European Union’ (08.12.2017)
If you ever will believe the narrative of the Conservative Party and the leadership around Theresa May, Boris Johnson and David Davis. Then you might believe there will be no consequences if the United Kingdom leave the European Union without any agreement. That means all the previous ones will cease and the third state of United Kingdom. Will loose all direct connections and also hurt all sort of movements between UK and European Member States and the Schengen Countries. This will hurt businesses, exports and also direct movement between UK and the EU. I will take the quotes that are showing the most concern from the House of Lords. The words from there is not my own, but from the Lords themselves and what they have collected. Take a look!
“The Loan Market Association pointed out that the loss of the Capital Requirements Directive passport would have a major impact on lending and loan market activities conducted by banks. A sudden withdrawal of passporting rights could affect both the enforceability of existing loan agreements and the ability and willingness by UK-based lenders to enter into future agreements” (…) “Lloyd’s predicted that the transfer of personal data from the EU to the UK would also be more difficult for UK firms doing business in the EEA. London based firms would therefore have to establish EEA subsidiaries or cease to write EEA insurance” (House of Lords, P: 11, 2017).
“The Fresh Produce Consortium noted that the Port of Dover handled 600 lorries per day transporting fresh produce. In 2016, the UK imported 3 million tonnes of fresh produce from other EU Member States. Many suppliers dealing solely in EU imports have no experience of meeting customs requirements, and registration as an Authorised Economic Operator would not be feasible for most small importers” (…) “The British Retail Consortium warned that the average tariff on food products imported from the EU would be 22%, with tariffs on Irish cheddar of 44% and on beef of 40%. Its research pointed to potential rises in the price of cheese in the order of 6–32%, on tomatoes of 9–18%, and on beef of 5–29%. Nontariff barriers would be burdensome in relation to customs checks, and health or veterinary checks stemming from sanitary and phytosanitary requirements” (House of Lords, P: 12, 2017).
“The Institute for Government noted that, in order to prepare the border for ‘no deal’, change would be needed across 30 Government departments and public bodies, as well as more than 100 local authority organisations. Private sector port operators, freight forwarders and shipping lines would need to adapt
their infrastructure, paperwork and logistics. France, The Netherlands and Ireland would also need to plan for disruption at their ports. Operation Stack demonstrated how delays at Calais have a knock-on effect in Dover” (…) “The BRC pointed out that up to 180,000 UK companies would be drawn into customs declarations for the first time. Companies would have to operate new excise and VAT systems for compliance purposes” (House of Lords, P: 14, 2017).
“The London Chamber of Commerce and Industry noted that there was no WTO ‘fail safe’ for the aviation sector: “The ultimate danger is that without a deal, flights from the UK and to the EU and other parts of the world will be grounded on exit day … And without an early deal—meaning clarity for airports, airlines and travellers as soon as possible in 2018—the uncertainty around what might happen will begin to weigh on the decision making of those considering travel.” (House of Lords, P: 15, 2017).
“The Russell Group concluded that no deal would affect universities’ ability to deliver world-leading research and education. No deal on the rights of EU citizens to live, study and work in the UK could lead to a loss of talented researchers and technicians with specialist skills who could not be replaced easily by UK nationals. If the UK and EU did not secure an agreement on science and research collaboration, UK institutions would cease to be eligible for Horizon 2020 funding on the day of exit. This would mean funding for existing projects would be withdrawn and researchers would immediately lose the ability to bid for this funding, with a detrimental impact on international competitiveness” (House of Lords, P: 16, 2017).
“The Institute for Government observed that “if the UK leaves the EU with no deal, it will not be possible to put in place any agreed arrangements to manage the border in Ireland. The UK could (possibly) decide to turn a blind eye. But the land border will represent the external frontier of the EU’s Single Market and Customs Union and it is hard to envisage how they would manage that without some sort of controls in place.” (House of Lords, P: 17, 2017).
“A complete ‘no deal’ outcome would be deeply damaging for the UK. It would bring UK-EU cooperation on matters vital to the national interest, such as counter-terrorism, police, justice and security matters, nuclear safeguards, data exchange and aviation, to a sudden halt. It would place the status of UK nationals in the EU, and EU nationals in the UK, in jeopardy, and would necessarily lead to the imposition of controls at the Irish land border” (House of Lords, P: 44, 2017).
The Conservative Party after this report is released cannot say the “No Deal” is a good deal, since the effect on their own and the business community is damaging. The movement between the UK and the EU will be hurt. It is just a matter of how hard and how strained the sudden change between the UK and EU occur.
The words of the report is showing just brief reflections of how a non-deal would effect the UK. Therefore, the Tories should do whatever they can to let the negotiations go smooth and make sure the separation goes well for all parties. That the borders between Ireland and European Union is not put on hold, but actually have tariffs and have regulations for movement after they left. If it is for the movement of the people or imports/exports of services and products. We can clearly see by the information collected into the House of Lords Report. That the “No Deal”, will make certain industry suffer and make the transition ever more costly for business, which will also hurt the people who has to pay more for their services/products.
If the Conservative Party still pounds and says that a “No Deal” is still okay. Then they are not looking into or not telling the truth about the implications of that. The Tories better come clean try to work against the clock for the betterment of their citizens. They have a mission to secure their citizens and their future on the outside of EU. No matter what that is, the UK has to make sure the provisions and regulations are put in place, so people and businesses can work under new agreement between EU and the UK. Peace.
House of Lords – European Union Committee – ‘Brexit: deal or no deal’ (07.12.2017)
Ouch! Today the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) Leader Arlene Foster and her agreement with the Conservative Party and Prime Minister Theresa May blocked a possible agreement today in Brussels. The European Union and United Kingdom negotiations to get first agreement and end Phase I is stalled for yet another time. Even as the power-players of the Brexit is coming to the forefront. There are vital signs on the horizon and it makes sense.
The Irish Government and their veto is vital for the European Union and their settlement with the United Kingdom. The Republic of Ireland as a Member State has an important role in the negotiations with United Kingdom. Therefore, after the meeting between Donald Tusk and Leo Varadkar, where the President of European Council promised to respect and honor the needs of the Irish in the negotiations. Clearly, showing signs of importance for Union and their Member State.
So now days after and there is a lunch with negotiations between the President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker and United Kingdom Prime Minister Theresa May. As they we’re ending negotiations and there was talk of a special agreement between them. The Northern Irish DUP was ready to go public and say what sort of offer they want in the agreement. Also, show their power and their means within the Tories-DUP Government. As expected when the agreement came in play, the DUP would have the upper-hand over the Tories, since the Tories needs DUP more than DUP needs the Tories.
Now with possible special economic zones where they are still part of single-market and free-trade zones. Will easily offer a conundrum for the Tories. Since if the Northern Irish get so on the will of Dublin and EU. Then, the Scottish, Welsh and London wants similar treatment. That meaning that the City of London, the Financial institutions and European Banks wants to secure this sort of arrangements. So that the tariffs and the expenses crossing borders with these services will not change when the Membership finally ends.
We have already seen First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon asking for special treatment, also the London Mayor Sadiq Khan, First Minister of Wales Carwyn Jones have all asked for favors treating their regions with the same favor as Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland doesn’t only the direct border issue with the Republic of Ireland, but also have special place within the Tories Government. This is all making the Brexit negotiations hectic.
Because, all of these leaders wants the best for Edinburgh, Cardiff and London. The thing is when you open one door, you don’t always know what appears. In this instance, if the Tories and DUP opens up for special treatment of Belfast, than Edinburgh, City of London and Cardiff want similar efforts thrown their way. That is within reason. I am sure David Davis when discussing matters with Michael Barnier, knew about these sketchy, but notable pin-points. To secure a grand deal for all parts of the UK. If not and most likely he was winging it and hoping nobody was paying him any mind or consideration.
Because the Leo Varadkar said in a press conference that the text agreement on the Irish border was agreed upon, but suddenly the United Kingdom couldn’t agree upon it. This happen after Theresa May had a phone-call with Foster, just after Foster and the DUP had their own press conference. Clearly, the DUP haven’t agreed upon it and want to set their foot down.
Today are proving how hard it is for the United Kingdom to have one line and walk in one separate vision towards ending the membership. Since if the one part of their own Union get special treatment, than the Welsh, Scottish and London is expecting similar their way. So there will only be hot pockets in Manchester, Swindon and Newcastle, where they are outside the free-trading zone and single-market, as the Brexit was supposed to entail. That because the Northern Irish question will not only be answered by London or Belfast, but Dublin will have their say in the arrangement of the border.
Dublin have Brussels and the Membership inside the EU. So their veto and stopping of an agreement in powerful. As well as their desire to respect the Good Friday Agreement. The DUP has power over the Tories and London, but have initial power over Brussels. Brussels will listen to Dublin before they listen to Belfast. That is just common-sense. Since Belfast will follow London… ‘
So the DUP could block the Tories in Brussels today, but they cannot push it to far. If they try to, then the agreement between them will fail the government and not extend a hand into the negotiations. So they can get into Phase II and answer other questions the UK needs to address concerning leaving the EU.
This one will not end. And the self-destruction don’t need to come from outside when concerning the UK. The UK can dissolve themselves and hurt themselves whenever needed. The UK are now begging for mercy from Belfast, London needs Belfast. That is why May gave-up the text and border agreement that was ready to fix over lunch today. Clearly, the DUP, they duped May and enjoys it.
We can wonder how May feels when arriving back in London.. She has now been humiliated by their own partner in the government. It must be weird to May. Who cannot win easily and cannot get a stable approach. Today the strong and stable government pledge of General Election 2017. Seemingly seems like a far fetched dream and closer to nightmare. As May cannot even work without being stifled by Foster. Peace.
Today, it’s been proven by statements between Donald Tusk and Leo Varadkar that Theresa May and Arlene Foster has a hurdle to pass. Not only respecting the Good Friday Agreement and that provisions. But also now the center stage isn’t in London as the Tories-DUP Government have claimed, they are starting to swim alone and struggling to show their transparent negotiations with the European Union (EU). Dublin have now the upper-hand and Tusk has told world. That is new world-order for London, who has in the past muffled a lot with the Irish. Therefore, historical line of the British over the Irish is now fad and the European Union is sanctioning it.
Donald Tusk Statement to the Irish:
“It is no secret that we discussed Brexit with a special focus on the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. I came to Dublin to reassure the Taoiseach and all the Irish people that the EU is fully behind you and your request that there should be no hard border on the island of Ireland after Brexit. The Irish request is the EU’s request. Or as the Irish proverb goes: “Ni neart go cur le cheile” (There is no strength without unity)” (Tusk, 2017).
Arlene Foster message to the Tories:
“Amid reports that Dublin and London could be close to a deal that would avoid a “hard border”, Ms Foster went on the offensive to insist that she will not accept a new border “in the Irish Sea”” (…) “Ms Foster said that Ms May already “has been categorical” in accepting the DUP requirement. “Her Majesty’s government have a clear understanding that the DUP will not countenance any arrangement that could lead to a new Border being created in the Irish Sea,” she said” (Moriarty, 2017).
Arlene Foster has leverage concerning the Tories-DUP Agreement, but the United Kingdom also has the Good Friday Agreement and also negotiations with the European Union. When concerning Irish border and trade, the veto and power-player is now the Irish government. It is not in London and the with the negotiation team of the Tories-DUP to Brussels. They are even salvaging as it is.
Brexit negotiations are now officially on Irish terms, especially their wishes for the borders. If the Irish wants soft or hard borders, even if they have to make it in a way where still the United Kingdom is an officially third country and with those regulatory borders. Still, the can be specialized agreements between the Irish and the UK. That depends on if the Northern Irish and the London can accept the boundaries and the tariffs. Also the possible movement between them as well.
It will now depend on Dublin, not London. Irish has the upper-hand in the negotiations and the Tories-DUP knows this. The Irish can veto if they don’t agree with negotiated agreements that has been made in Brussels. Clearly, Foster and May must feel the pain. As they are not as high and mighty. They actually have to make sure the Irish feel respected and have their way. If not, the Irish can stifle the process and make it harder for London. Secondly, London have to accept it, since the Irish can veto. Peace.
Moriarty, Gerry – ‘Arlene Foster: DUP will not accept Brexit border in Irish Sea’ (30.11.2017) link: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/arlene-foster-dup-will-not-accept-brexit-border-in-irish-sea-1.3311275
Tusk, Donald – ‘Remarks by President Donald Tusk after his meeting with Taoiseach Leo Varadkar’ (01.12.2017) link: http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/12/01/remarks-by-president-donald-tusk-after-his-meeting-with-taoiseach-leo-varadkar/#