Opinion: Mzee must have angered his donors when seeing the dwindling budget support for FY 2017/2018!

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I haven’t been much focused on the budget for 2017/2018 because the more I know, the sadder I be for the citizens of Uganda. Since the revelations of the use of funds and allocations are usually not in sync. The allocations and maladministration is so rampant that the allocated funds are most likely spent on other projects than we’re they was anticipated to be. Either saves a Bank with owners tied to Museveni or to pay for gasoline for his Presidential Jet. Who knows right?

Well, we know that over the past few months and year President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni has attacked the hypocrisy and the West for interfering in his democracy. Mr. I-Am-Not-A-Civil-Servant, but I am your President. Since there are some questionable things in Uganda National Budget Framework Paper of December 2016. That are putting numbers for how they see fit for the government use of funds.

Key numbers:

Area FY 2016/2017 FY 2017/2018
Budget Support 926,6bn 33,8bn

This numbers says a lot of the usual donor-friendly regime of Museveni, which has been since he was the new-breed of African leaders that was even praised by Bill Clinton during the 1990s. Therefore the revelation that over a year period the donor-funding to direct budget support is scrapped says something. That of 30 Trillion budget of 2017/2018 is only getting meagre sum of 33 billion. That is just a few Presidential Handshakes to loyal cronies an then they are spent!

President Museveni must really angered and made them tired of throwing monies at his regime since they are not as friendly with their taxpayers monies as before. I am sure they have another cause and another country that they are doling their budget aid funds to. Now they are not directed at the NRM or the Mzee who certainly eats more alone. Peace.

Public Notice: DFCU Bank Limited Takes over Crane Bank Limited (27.01.2017)

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CSBAG Statement: The Budget We Want 2017/18 (20.01.2017)

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IMF Executive Board Completes the Seventh Review Under the Policy Support Instrument for Uganda (11.01.2017)

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Uganda’s economy has performed reasonably well in a complex environment.

WASHINGTON D.C., United States of America, January 11, 2017 – On January 5, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the seventh review of Uganda’s economic program under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI).1 The Board’s decision was taken on a lapse of time basis.2 In completing the review, the Board granted a waiver of the nonobservance of the end-June 2016 assessment criterion on the overall deficit of the central government.

The PSI for Uganda was approved by the Board on June 28, 2013 (see Press Release No. 13/78), and a one-year extension was approved on June 6, 2016 (see Press Release No. 16/263).

Uganda’s economy has performed reasonably well in a complex environment. Growth slowed marginally to 4.8 percent in FY15/16, reflecting muted sentiment in an election year and adverse global and regional developments. The current account deficit improved by 1 percentage point to 5.9 percent of GDP, and the Shilling has stabilized after a sharp depreciation in 2015. Growth is projected to nudge up to 5 percent in FY16/17.

Program performance under the PSI has been mixed. Tight monetary policy in 2015 has helped contain inflation in the target range, and the Bank of Uganda (BoU) has started an easing cycle in April 2016. Reserve cover remains adequate. Fiscal revenue and deficit targets were missed, reflecting lower-than-expected growth and election effects. Investment spending fell short, while current expenditure overshot. Structural reforms have progressed, albeit with some delays.

The banking sector remains overall well capitalized, despite elevated non-performing loans. The BoU appropriately took over an undercapitalized bank and is identifying a strategic investor.

Uganda remains at a low risk of debt distress. The scaling-up of infrastructure investment implies a temporary increase in debt, putting a premium on domestic revenue mobilization and ensuring that public investment yields the intended growth dividend.

Looking ahead, priorities include close cooperation with the Financial Action Task Force to ensure Uganda’s swift exit from its “gray” list; strengthening domestic arrears monitoring; and amending the Bank of Uganda Act to reinforce central bank independence.

1 The PSI is an instrument of the IMF designed for countries that do not need balance of payments financial support. The PSI helps countries design effective economic programs that, once approved by the IMF’s Executive Board, signal to donors, multilateral development banks, and markets the Fund’s endorsement of a member’s policies (see imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/psi.htm). Details on Uganda’s current PSI are available at imf.org/uganda.

2 The Executive Board takes decisions without a meeting when it is agreed by the Board that a proposal can be considered without convening formal discussions.

Opinion: Ugandan Government rising debt levels, brings fear of higher inflation, devalued currency and defaulting on the debt!

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Well, an election year and campaigning as a tyrant and dictator cost, the fortunes splashed on fellow peers and citizens to buy goodwill costs. The price usually happens after the splash funds on villages and on buses. The estimated exhaust of funds and State House can strain the economy. Therefore after elections in the past there been rising food-prices, more expensive oil and gas and other needed imported goods for the average citizen.

This is happening as the donor-community doesn’t have the same faith in the Movement or the President that been there since 1986. His longevity is now hurting him, as his tricks of trade isn’t building steady progress, instead he is using up every single allocation to make sure the loyal servants and movement peers are paid-in-full, even as his own party haven’t paid salaries for months. There are rumours of how the Special Force Command with Maj. Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba has gotten their salaries received as much there are questions of the government bailouts of the friends and business-mates of Gen. Salim Selah.

Still, the economic problems continue to arise, the ill-minded would say there hope of wealth, but the lack of transparency, misused funds as the Uganda Revenue Authority – Oil Money scheme and other’s prove there are lacking accountability for how the government funds are spent. This with the knowledge of the lacking salaries to teachers and even Local Government funds that are spent without concern of showing where it got spent; all these activities doesn’t give confidence and trust between the stakeholders and citizens.

With all of this in mind the revelation that the growing debt are now eating too much of government spending, as the arising splashing of funds to civil servants are happening; the reports from Bank of Uganda (BoU) isn’t a beautiful fairy-tale, instead it is doom.

“In its state-of-the-economy report for December 2016, BOU said: “There are also perceptions in the market that Uganda may not be able to service its rising debt levels.” (…) “The central bank said external debt has grown rapidly and, on a commitment basis, is now estimated at $10.7bn as at end of October 2016. BOU said: “A lump up [in] infrastructure investment has contributed to a rise in our debt portfolio in recent years.” (…) “Uganda’s public debt burden has risen by 12.7 per cent to 38.6 per cent of GDP in 2016/17 from 25.9 per cent of GDP in 2012/13. BOU says it is projected to continue rising towards 45 per cent of GDP by 2020” (Mwesigwa, 2017).

Highlights on the 2015/16 budget (New Vision Graphic)
Highlights on the 2015/16 budget (New Vision Graphic)

That the Movement and the NRM are not able to service their debt, is an indication and will also create a problem with the banks and multi-national financial institutions that has offered these loans to help the government with the day-to-day operations of a sufficient government, as well as offering loans to promising infrastructure projects. These all are now in danger of defaulting loans. These levels are estimated to become 45% of the income of the Republic, which is not the sign of riches; more of poverty and mismanagement. The Executive that has been leading the nations for the decades have seen the signs of the wall, but instead of telling the truth; he has promised industrial revolution and amazing progress that would be bigger than when the United Kingdom found out how to earn money on the Steam-Engine. The same kind of promises to become a middle income nation, when your debt burden is arising as rapidly as it is doing now.

This should be worrying as the Movement has revealed and gotten released plans for own total production and releasing own notes, that could also increase possibilities of devaluing the currency, this with growing debt can create a hyper-inflation that only his fellow comrade has been able to create in Zimbabwe. That is the worst case scenario if the bank-notes production gets out of bond to sort of make quick fortunes for the Movement.

The Movement has all their days used any kind of acts to get monies for themselves and hide it away, only when gotten public they needed to have inquiries and detain the ones that not kingpins, but the low-level employees that doesn’t hurt the leadership. Therefore the concern of not a fiscal well-thought monetary policy, as the Movement are more settled on building projects without having to have giant loans from Multi-National Monetary lenders like IMF; AfDB and others. These loans has to be paid back and also with interest. As the Government bonds has also lost their track compared to the need of sufficient funding. These institutional defaults and as well with the lack of clear conscience of the use of funds, shows the Movement has to step up their game if they don’t want their currency and their budget to lack funds for the coming budget year.

The growing loans will also stop the amount of absorbed funds in the republic goes down as the government has to use bigger parts of the resources on loans, as the extended collected funds from URA might have grown, but they are not collecting enough to keep up with the debt. If so they wouldn’t have defaulted and probably would have paid their interest and debt rate as promised when they we’re accepting taking on the debt.

Time for the Movement and their regime to charge, change patterns, their eating as much as they can, but they will leave the next one with a huge bill of no-confidence, while their short-term riches will be spoiled and devalued as the coming depressing economic stability will not give the market and the currency the needed trust as it should has a tool for exchange values between two parties. Peace.

Reference:

Mwesigwa, Alon – ‘CENTRAL BANK WARNS ABOUT RISING DEBT’ (06.01.2017) link: http://www.observer.ug/business/50631-central-bank-warns-about-rising-debt

Uganda: Clarification on BOU’s Ownership of Plots 15-17 Birch Avenue, Masaka Municipality. (04.01.2017!)

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Letter: “Re: Tresspass on Golf Course land in Masaka Muncipality” (28.12.2016)

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Opinion: Mwenda’s life shouldn’t be in focus, there are so many other important political questions unanswered right now in Uganda!

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I find it weird that the Facebook posts on Facebook are addressing the sexual preferences of Independent Magazine editor and owner Andew Mwenda, the man who has gone from a lone voice for the citizens to suddenly sounding like a regime imposter. Still, that is a another discussion than what has been on the web of late. Whatever sort of love-life he has is in my opinion his business, unless he marries and get wedded to the daughters of President Museveni or related to his kin. If so, than he is part of the Movement elite and the discussion of his “free” mind would be more in question, than it is already is after the revelations of late about his economic transgression with Rwandan Government and other questionable clientele.

Still, the bum-fun and the dirty dozen is the questions that are trying to figure out, instead of discussion needed political transgression that needs to be addressed, as of all of sudden in Masaka where there only green area that is saved the Masaka Golf Club, but the rest of land is grabbed by rich Chinese investors in haste that seems more like a heist than a power move from the buyers of the land. As they have sealed of land for banking business without proper titles or informed the other Central Government and not even the Local Government; the Local Council seems also boggled as much as the Masaka Golf Club who even written a letter to Central Government on the 27th December.

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This is interesting enough as the trial and imprisoned soldiers that came from the UPDF garrison in the AMISOM mission, that has already leaked pictures of torture where the fellow who are alleged for selling weapons and ammunition to Al-Shabaab warlords that the AMISOM mission tries to squash and get rid of, apparently have been mistreated by their own before a trial and proof of evidence. Soldiers and men who are serving the military and one apparent wrong to selling equipment while being on tour; still, the reason for these activities is that the UPDF and Ugandan Government haven’t paid steady salaries and the hungry fighting soldiers has to get funds to sustain themselves. Even stealing and selling ammunition to the ones they are trying to fight. That shows how wrong the systematic eating of the Central Government towards their own, how forgotten and how the mismanagement of funds from African Union and United Nation in the AMISOM army. They even torture their own who has done the last resort to pay themselves as the soldiers needs to eat food and send their family needed funds. That is why they signed up in the first place, not because all of them loves to shoot-to-kill. We already has seen during the years that the Ugandan Garrisons has sold gasoline and other equipment to sustain themselves, so that the soldiers goes to these extend says something about the arranged maladministration from the top to the bottom of the food-chain.

These two cases alone should be put on blast, more than the Mwenda’s troubles and that he cannot keep his house in order. That the land-grabbing happens as rampant that the commercial golf-course in Masaka reacts by the Chinese land-grab should put the fear in the locals and the ones who feels that the state shouldn’t just move people and take away land for a simple dime without consideration of the Local Council and Local Government, because the Central Government really needs funds. That is evident with the recent case of soon starting to print own monies that even the Bank of Uganda, fearing the inflation and devalued currency that could make the hyper-inflation as pure case for Uganda. So that President Museveni can follow the suits and shades of President Robert Mugabe who made it possible in 2007-2008. So the 50,000 note wouldn’t be biggest anymore after the start of printing. The Ugandan Citizens might have use 300,000 to buy a hand of tomatoes at the market and pay for a short ride on a boda-boda 100,000 instead of the about for instance 3,000 now. So the biggest note from the Central Government of Museveni will be after the deal is sealed is 500,000 or even a 1,000,000. That is if his business partners are lucky and get their hands in the cookie-jar while the citizens will struggle more to pay for ordinary products. That is the worst case scenario, but not far away from the regulated funds and monies in the market might be juked and fixed to the moment of brilliance of Museveni instead of technocrats that can keep the inflation at bay.

Still, people are more worried if the Mwenda has a gay-lover or more, if he has a girlfriend or even if has land overseas, as the editor is that special and needs to be discussed in this matter. Like Tamale Mirundi needs to explain how he orders tires to his taxis, buses and how make his wife happy. Instead of us hearing and understanding their machine mouths of ignorance, brilliance or nonsense depending on their day.

We should be worried of the debate, the level of what is important when the national dialogue goes on this while we haven’t gotten answers for the apparent violation of movement and religious activity as the Police Force and the other Security Organizations went into the Nakasero Mosque in the middle of the night without any pre-warning and raided the holy-house on non-existent intelligence during the Christmas Season.

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We are not to may days ago since the UPDF and Special Force Command burned the Bukihari Royal Palace in Kasese. The Kasese clashes and the deaths of several guards, police officers and soldiers during the bloody days of November 2016; this together with the aftermath where the Ombusinga bwa Rwenzuururu Charles Wesley Mumbere are lingering on treason charge at Luzira Prison while the state and security organization isn’t delivering any profile or case worth talking about. But they could pull the trigger and delete the existence of Royal Guards, kids and other bystanders as the UPDF, UPF and Special Force Command had no issues killing hundreds of people during 48 hours.

Still, a month after this we have no answers, a silent President Museveni who couldn’t care less about the killed and slaughtered citizens in Kasese and in the sub-counties close to Royal Palace. This done without precautions and done with purpose to unsettle the area and also keep people afraid of the Central Government as they can go in with all weapons and guns on civilians without any warrant. Just like they did at the Nakasero Mosque, we will see more of this as the NRM Regime doesn’t care about the loss of life and the viable aftermath after the violence. They are trying to shade over the deaths and move-on. Like they families of the dead can get a new father or mother. They just vanished in the middle of no time and without any charges except the bullets from security organizations from the NRM regime.

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When we have all of this, as much as we have a Parliament who are just thinking about themselves and not the public, why can I say that because the MPs are more important that the rest of the ordinary paying citizens who pays taxes on their salaries; something the MPs in Uganda doesn’t have to care about. While that is happening after all the newly created districts and new levels of MPs the old Parliament in Kampala is to small and doesn’t have enough facilities to the loyalist of Museveni. They need bigger space and that cost, so they can divert funds to fix the building and chambers to be filled with all of them, even if they are not always there and instead fixing suits, fixing fresh posh cars and other casual business. Like a MP who we’re caught during December that he wanted to pay over 1,5 million shillings for a three-some with two female Makererere Students while their University we’re closed. The disgraced MP has not answered after the leaked conversation came unto the web. Still, that discussion is more interesting than the bumping movements of Mwenda.

People shouldn’t dance easy just because these men are Honourable, they are MPs because they are “elected” by the people and they are paying for their existence. Still, they are fist eating without any courtesy and now their workplace get upgraded, while schools are falling apart, teachers payments are inadequate and they even has small farms to feed themselves; while the same teachers are seeing ghosts being paid to secure the local government needed funds to their post cars. Still, the MPs let them walk because the allocations are happening slow and never as much as the budget. They claim there trouble in the system, but not the people who are doing this to eat of it in the Central Government so that the ones in districts has less or nothing to eat off. That is the current state and in this state the MPs decided they doesn’t deserve to pay tax and secondly deserves a better working condition. This is disgraceful to all the diligent civil servants who doesn’t get their salary on time or getting needed funds to keep their buildings, schools and police station that are falling apart.

This is the reality of Steady progress, the proof that the Yellow Movement is a poof, it’s a created manufactured design to divert attention while the President is having a splendid time. Let you forget the torture, the mismanagement and the greed of the MPs. While the system are led by a party where the NRM EC Dr. Tanga Odoi has also been going unpaid and even Justine Kasule Lumumba had to go public and tell that the Movement we’re broke. So dope the Party running the country, the steady progress has let their men and woman go without payments for 6 months. As fresh funds has dwindled. NRM are like Central Government very broke and out of bound with reality. They are spending stupid and not caring about the consequences. Therefore the solution in the silence to print own currency together with a company that is inter-connected with the Museveni clan; that is double payment for the Executive while the citizens pays to pay for their money. A brilliant idea, but also a way of certify the inflation, if they are actually going through with this arrangement.

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Still, people care more about the donuts that Mwenda is eating. So beautiful way of spending Christmas season discussing the dumping grounds of a editor, instead of torture, ghost-salaries, land-grab or Parliamentary Mismanagement where the systemic idiocrasy of Museveni gets into the same speed as Lewis Hamilton on the Formula 1 race track in Dubai. That speed is so fast we cannot follow all of the curves as the track is burning after the wheels leave stains on the tarmac.

The same is happening with real news when the Editor is in focus for his love-life and not all of these government acts. The Ugandan President Museveni should be happy his family and elite can run their Wild West show and let a egocentric writer get all the attention. Still, the people and citizen should react to the UPDF; question the acts of Kasese and not forget together with all the other current events. Peace! 

Leaked: Secret Bank Notes Production scheme between Verdios GmbH and President Museveni!

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Opinion: It’s total silence not defiance anymore

Dr. Kizza Besigye Quote Outspend

The Campaign of Defiance is dead, because the compliance has sunk the ship of Defiance that we’re ushered in with the Presidential Campaign of 2015/2016 of Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) and for the Presidential Candidate Dr. Kizza Besigye. The rigged and fraudulent election went down, the President since 1986 President Yoweri Museveni triggered election victory with 100% in dozens of districts and acted vicious in others; that are known opposition strongholds like Kampala, Wakiso and others. Therefore the FDC and Besigye should have and could have grievances on the methods of suppression of the votes.

Besigye’s campaign of defiance was a grand idea in the darkness of an oppressive regime under the National Resistance Movement. The NRM has for decades and during previous elections used public funds, used the state and security organizations to spread fear instead of free and fair election. As well as hiring fellow cronies in the Electoral Commission that we’re working directly on orders for the Movement instead of securing the popular vote, as well as using the Police Force and the Army to show where the loyalty should be, also gifts of soaps, food and small fees to take part of rallies in the districts. This has been NRMs way of spreading loyalty and fear mixed together.

So the Defiance campaign was a good idea, to defy the rigged system and state apparatus that has eaten the whole plate and only follows orders of loyal cronies of Museveni. That in itself was genuine and straight-forward plan from Besigye, only if more of the citizens and the party he was apart of really believed in it. As with time the defying plans has been silenced, the fighting the machine and corrupt behaviour of the state has turned silent.

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The FDC and the defiance after the failing Election Petition of the Go-Forward and Amama Mbabazi in Supreme Court, the FDC and Besigye hasn’t had the levels of defiance in them or tried to defy the structures that validates the regime. The FDC has turned into compliance as the swearing-in of Museveni happen and the Members of Parliament we’re sworn-in after the fraudulent election. It was topped when certain MPs went into Shadow-Parliament and legitimized the Movement.

So with this the FDC themselves did comply with Museveni and his fellow cronies instead of defying the ruler. They went into the chambers made sure they got paid and later trying to follow the lead of Besigye isn’t believable. That the same men and woman who easily take the small-change at the Parliament and later goes to FDC Prayers is playing to games.

The Short-Con is the Shadow-Cabinet and validating the rule of Museveni to make sure their pockets are filled and that their MPs respectability is fixed so their families and friends are secured. But with this they are forgetting the long-term damage to be parts of Movements skin-democracy.

The Long-Con is that with the sharing parts of the skin-democracy and playing the game of the freedom fighters while not really working the cause. So the long-con is some of the FDC leadership roles right now, only patching the hurt, but not trying to rebuild.

FDC 05.05.2016 Planned March

The Defiance Campaign was about defying the Movement… something that the FDC didn’t do, which is complicated and also lacking of moral support from the FDC while he was serving time in Moroto and Luzira. They might show up to gates of the prison and even say publicly that they condemn the Police Force actions against the democratic and rights to assemble as an opposition party.

So the plan of Defiance wasn’t supposed to be one-man band, Besigye wasn’t supposed to carry it on his own. Besigye weren’t alone as we could see youths, P-10 Groups and FDC-Diaspora we’re supportive efforts. You had and still have Lord Mayor Erias Lukwago and Gen. David Sejusa. Still, they have very few others who have been under fire at the same level without trading their souls, there is Ingrid Turinawe and Doreen Nyanjura has fought battles without much to gain.

That the silence in general should be worrying as the Police Force are continuing to battle with Besigye, his house is still besieged and the man is monitored every movement. If he breaks the barrier and creates public excitement, than it’s straight into detention or police brutality cases towards the crowds that surge the man.

Besigye should be free, the country should be free, but the silence isn’t saving anything. The silence has settled the defiance campaign and the mentality of the defiance agenda. They didn’t build momentum enough to stop the daily life and hurt the business of the movement. The defiance didn’t stop the Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) from collecting VAT or stop exports of fuel. The Defiance didn’t stop the UPDF from getting new recruits or any other possible monetary deficiency the campaign could do. Just like the shops stopping trading as the shop-keepers we’re even detained for doing so, because it hurt the taxation and trade that the Movement needs to run their merry-go-round of graft and embezzlement of public funds.

The Defiance could have worked if the FDC and Besigye had gotten the momentum and had the public will behind them, not the half-ready pile of work, sort of like the way the Police Force in Uganda picks up intelligence as they see fit in forged police case. The FDC could have used the anger and frustration of the public, the citizens who feel used.

So the May Protest this year we’re starting of profound messages that the citizens we’re on the road of pressing the government. So much we’re ready as they remembered the recent thieving of their future from the Movement yet again, the wounds we’re fresh. Still the army had been in the streets, the Police Force we’re targeting the opposition and also civil society offices we’re attacked.

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The people shouldn’t be silenced as the Christmas season are in line, the FDC cannot carry this alone, not that all of them wanted the defiance; they wanted the easy compliance life of the pseudo-opposition instead of a fighting defying organization that could get rid of the militarized movement that been running it since the 1980s. That should be KEY. That should be the goal of the FDC; instead many went into legitimizing it.

So the silenced is understandable, Besigye and his trials cannot be of only him and it isn’t, but it is many who has given in and went back to business-as-usual. Besigye could have more support from the FDC NEC, but he hasn’t. They don’t have the backbone and the wish to succeed. They gave in when it was going against the grain. They we’re risking it all and couldn’t. While Besigye is again under a “treason” charge as others who are questioning the Movement; the others are walking free and without any Court Orders in their name.

It’s not like the man who took the power by the gun want to leave silent or let it go easy, he fought a brutal bush-war. Now he has a big-army and guerrillas of M23, Museveni got allies of USA and Russia dropping arms in his favour so he can suppress his people. Citizens can fight this, but they cannot only rely on Besigye. Besigye only has power if the people are behind him. If the people are working with to dismantle the regime, but the silent obedient citizens are changing an illegitimate regime. Civil disobedience and systematic effort to discontinue the regime would be true defying the Movement. Instead the silence is what is running the tides as 2017 are coming around the corner. Peace.