Opinion: The CSTO seems to be over…

This week has shown that the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is a pointless and worthless defence pact. The nation in the alliance are not safeguarded or defended. The main sponsor or biggest army, the Russian army seems ambivalent or too busy in the Ukrainian invasion to help out others. The exhaust of the invasion of Ukraine is now showing Kremlin to be powerless and lack military strength to support other member states of the CSTO.

The CSTO was supposed to defend and help out Armenia this week. However, they never shown up and didn’t mind that Azerbaijan did attack Armenia. They could just violate the territories of Armenia and the CSTO wouldn’t do anything. Even when the Armenian government did invoke Article 4 in the CSTO agreement. This just shows that the CSTO is becoming a redundant defence pact. They cannot even show up when a nation call upon them.

In the same regard, which is even more striking is the Tajikistan attacks on Kyrgyzstan. Tajikistan has attacked and went into contested areas. Where the Tajikistan armed forces has gone after villagers, and attacked civilians too. There been at least three ceasefires, but Tajikistan has violated them again and again this week. Therefore, the CSTO cannot even look into the acts made by the nations itself.

The CSTO seems like a lost project. Especially, when nations who is members can attack each other without any ramifications and when a member is violated without any reactions or seriousness of it. Armenia is a nation like that. A nation that is an ally of Russia and still nothing. Azerbaijan seems to be living large and be okayed by Putin. Since, there is nothing of substance in concerns to military assistance or even diplomatic measures. The Azerbaijani forces can just do what it does and there is no noise.

The same can be said about the Tajikistan army who are violating and having skirmishes on Kyrgyzstan territories. That has been done and the CSTO hasn’t invoked any meeting or dialogue of any sense. No, the CSTO is a bystander and wondering what it does Certainly, Putin would support the aggressor. Since, Putin prefers dictators and tyrannies over democracies.

That’s why Putin is supporting Azerbaijan and Tajikistan in these wars. Even when these are deliberately showing the West and everyone else that CSTO is a dead-fish in the water. There is nothing there and it won’t care about the nations itself. The Russian army is maybe to damaged and stretched in war in Ukraine. That it cannot help or be at service to the member states of CSTO.

That just shows the weakness of the whole CSTO. As it all evolved around the Russian Federation and the “superpower” it was meant to be. The only thing it does is validating the sense of tyrants standing together and allowed to attack other sovereigns. While the CSTO “values” or actual “defence pact” is worthless. It is not even worth the ink on the paper it was written on.

That’s what is striking here. These wars in Central Asia or the Caucasus is only showing what Putin is losing. His not a feared man and neither is the organizations he has built. If the CSTO was supposed to be a reaction or a defence pact in comparison to NATO. It has surely lost its value and is meaningless. That’s obvious when member states attack each other or a member state is attacked; and nothing is happening at all.

The CSTO is bound to fail and dissolve. The wars and skirmishes in Caucasus is showing that. If this is a plan. Certainly, Putin is losing influence and only weakening his own case. Because he have no Defence Pact and leverage with former USSR republics. They are more independent and don’t even have to be concerned with Kremlin or what Moscow might want. There is no connection or no bother really. They know Putin or Kremlin won’t mind either. He just looks away and is unbothered about the whole thing. Peace.

Azerbaijan: Azerbaijani Youth Organization of Lithuania – Statement of the Azerbaijani Youth Organization of Lithuania (AYOL) regarding the large-scale sabotage attacks committed by the Armenian Army on September 12, 2022 (14.09.2022)

Armenia: Centre for Armenian Information and Advice (CAIA) – Azerbaijani Offensives Against Armenia (14.09.2022)

Opinion: Is the CSTO ready to be tested? [In Armenia or Tajikistan]

This week the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is put under pressure. That is happening as the Russian army is under fire and getting hit hard on the front-lines in Ukraine. Russians as the “superpower” of the CSTO and with the losses in Ukraine. Certainly the warfare in Ukraine is weakening not only Russia, but the CSTO itself. That’s why this weeks actions against Member States of CSTO begs to question. Is the CSTO up to it? Or was it a dream turned into a nightmare in Kremlin?

The CSTO has been Moscow controlled and centralized from there to have some sort of military alliance and influence over former Soviet Republics. That’s why the CSTO consist of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan. Former Member States are Azerbaijan, Georgia and Uzbekistan. While Serbia is the only state, which is an observer to the CSTO.

Why I am saying CSTO is in trouble?

Well, the recent skirmishes between Azerbaijan and Armenia is the first push. Where the Azerbaijan has attacked Armenia in contested areas. Which has killed unknown amount of soldiers and used artillery on Armenia soil. The Azerbaijan army has even attacked a Russian FSB van in the border region. So, this here shows how volatile things are.

In addition to the acts and skirmishes between Azerbaijan and Armenia. While the Kyrgyzstan’s border force has attacked the Tajikistan as well. That’s two more conflicts involving the member states of the CSTO.

The Armenian state has already invoked or plans to invoke the article of the pact, which says the other member state has to help them out in a conflict. This means the fellow alliance members has to come to Armenia with military aide.

The question here now will be… has Russia or Belarus any real army capacity to offer? Will, the Russians depleted armies and stretched manpower be able to help Armenia in the hour of need?

There is already talk of the very independent Armenia not helping in the war in Ukraine. That the Russians might be reluctant to help them now. Since, the Russian would have needed support, both equipment and brigades in the war in Ukraine. However, there has only been help and support from Minsk.

Tajikistan has offered equipment and ammunition to the Russians for the war in Ukraine. So, that’s another ball-game.

We will see who Moscow will come to support. This is their alliance and counter-pact to the NATO. So, it has to prove it’s value now, as the members are now hurt and their sovereignty is hit by neighbours, which is what Moscow is doing to Kyiv. However, Moscow can be a hypocrite about that, as long as that fits the interests of Kremlin or His Excellency, Putin.

This will surely be a test for the Russian alliance, the CSTO. That is under fire right now. The border skirmishes and clashes are only showing how the Member States needs support. That Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan is attacking their neighbours. There is certainly a lot at play here.

We just have to see how the Kremlin moves now. They have to show their worth. In the moment and time, when their own forces and armies aren’t in a good place either. As the Ukrainian advances are hitting everywhere. The launched Special Operation in Ukraine is certainly backfiring and we can wonder if they have enough resources to boost their allies of the CSTO. Peace.

Eurovision 2022: Running speculations on the 6 Nations Jury Results that was cancelled in the last minute

TVR’s specifications regarding the situation created by the cancellation of the result of the Romanian jury vote by the organizers of Eurovision: Romanian Television has fully committed to participating in Eurovision 2022, paying the participation fee and preparing, together with the WRS team, a project that enjoyed the public’s appreciation. However, we were surprised to find that the result of the Romanian jury’s vote was not taken into the final ranking, with the organizers assigning another set of scores to the competitors in the final, on behalf of our country’s jury. We specify that the jury in Romania decided to grant a maximum score to the representatives of Moldova” (Dan Turturica, 15.05.2022).

What was special during the Eurovision 2022 yesterday was the suddenly all in the power of the Executive Supervisor Martin Österdahl. There was several of nations that this happened too. As the hosts and Executive Supervisor said was because of “lack of contact” and “loss of signal with”. While there is now claims from Romania and from the presenter of Azerbaijan Narmin Salmanova.

The latter stated this:

I supposed to announce 12 points for Ukraine, but for some reasons EBU decided to declare their ‘own’ results for Azerbaijani jury & didn’t make video connection” (Salmanova, 15.05.2022).

Immediately following the contest on “Sabaha saxlamayaq” Narmin Salmanova who was due to be the Azeri spokesperson said she was surprised to see results that did not align with those she was due to present. Narmin did not announce the results with Martin Österdahl, Executive Supervisor of the Eurovision Song Contest announcing Azerbaijan’s points instead. The Head of the “Sabaha saxlamayaq” added that:

There were no technical problems on our end. An investigation is underway on this issue, the results of which will be presented to the attention of the general public

The six countries whose jury votes were removed from the contest and replaced by the EBU with results based on previous voting patterns are reported to be: Azerbaijan, Georgia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania and San Marino. İctimai Television joins the broadcasters of Montenegro, Romania and Georgia in requesting an explanation from the EBU” (Eurovoix News – ‘Azerbaijan: İctimai Television Working to Understand Why Eurovision Jury Vote Was Not Accepted’ 15.05.2022).

I have no stakes in the game and am I sympathetic with the Ukrainian people and their cause of sovereignty. That this would be celebrated and become the victor of this years Eurovision was to be anticipated. Whole of Europe would show solidarity and make it happen. This is just making sense for everyone on the continent.

However, the way the Executive Supervisor and the EBU taking over the jury results in these nations are directly interfering and changing the results. They are indirectly telling what the nations are supposed to vote and who is the right one to do so. This is really not right and no broadcaster or jury should accept this.

The viewers of the Eurovision are used to that the neighbour countries votes on each other. That the countries around each other gives each other points. This is a tendency which we all know by now. So, that the Romanian Jury not giving points to Moldova seems weird. That would be like Sweden not giving Norway or Denmark (not part of this year, but you catch my drift). It is just normal and courtesy between the nations in question.

The Executive Supervisor and EBU has to address this, if they want to be serious and be fair. This is unfair treatment and should be held with contempt. The juries are already turning the results on way or the other. It is steering the competition as we know it, which we know it does. Alas, this is a huge blow if they did violate these broadcasters and changed their results. Then the EBU and the Executive Supervisor undemocratically decided the fate of the contest in favour of certain artists/nations. That is not a good look and could be seen as rigging, which is electioneering no one want to see in such a friendly and uniting competition as the Eurovision Song Contest. Peace.

Press Release: High Level Mission calls for more Humanitarian engagement in Chad

Chad

Money and Madness!

In a day where we saw the monster of money winning its second title at Ethiad Stadium. It’s more stories of money and power brewing in the world. We have Dr. Dre and Jimmy Lovine’s company of Beat Elecontrics apparently sold to Apple Inc for a blistering 3,2 billion dollars and making the mighty doctor the first Hip Hop billionaire! Somewhere is Jay Z and Diddy (Puff Daddy aka P.Diddy aka Sean Combs) crying or wondering why they didn’t start selling lavish headphones.

I could have discussed the matters of Fiancial Fair Play of UEFA and their so called fine on Manchester City. In that same matter I could been discussing the issues of Sepp Blatter asking or nodding his head towards the headboard and complying for a new term as leader of the governing football establishment FIFA. No, I am not talking about either. The fall of United and Moyes ousting is not worth mention, though the proposed new signings and use of money will make the Glazers a bit unhappy in New York. At the same time not discussing the power of Roman in Chelsea where Diego Costa supposed to be at next season.

No I will talk about something which isn’t about money madness of the Premier League or Champions League, even if one of that competitions is over, the other one has yet a final to be held the 24th of May at Lisbon. But, still I can tell that is not where my mind is. Not even the flabbergasting last night show called Eurovision. Where the Hungary should have won since that was the best song in my opinion… However, the theme of the song wasn’t really Eurovision like, which was more the San Marino, UK or Swedes. Secondly after reading both national and international press – seems like the Poles and their breast got votes from drunk European men on the continent. Even though the national Eurovision councils and voting agents gave points to the half-man half-woman, That made the half and half a winner, though the rise of the phoenix (by some reports in the international press: the penis) would get the nod of and actually win in the shin ding in Copenhagen. Russia and Ukraine showed their true hearts to each other, then the usual 8, 10 or 12 points to each other.

It’s here the money and madness will be discussed. Referendum votes in the regions of Luhansk and Donetsk regions happen today, and those who voted, is reported to vote for separation from Kiev and the Ukraine state. Something that isn’t surprising for anybody. Vladimir Putin has just recently been in the new region of Crimea. Which for a few months ago was a piece of the federation of Ukraine and had a military and navy base rented to Russia so they had a well, and Ice free navy base, because the ones on the Kola Peninsula isn’t open for a few months of the year. So they need that to have a secure one all year around. Putin just secured the needed base and now own the area. No matter what Europe does or thinks. It’s doesn’t hit him, because well, the sanctions they have showed to the Russian leaders is scrap metal and dozen loads of waste of time and orders.

When Europe is still in the verge of economic recovery and need the big spenders of oligarch money. London and the City would be hurting like a baby who lost their lollipop and then the baby would cry. The Russian gas and money is so needed. Like Manchester City would be lost in the wildness without the Dubai Oil money.

The way it looks like for me. EU and USA is having their hands tied. They have the powers in their hands, but their washing their hands and at the same time trying to make their hands dirty. That is wretched tale that the beard of the recent winner of Eurovision wouldn’t even cut off.

We are here in situation where Russia and Putin has the upper hand and is carving up new territory for the federation. In Ukraine is there it has been mighty and important battles for Russia. It’s a saying: When Kiev sneezes Moscow get a cough. So after the fall of Yanukovych the friend and former president of Ukraine who himself ran to Putin’s Russia. It’s the actions of the former government and the fall of the weak institutions of Ukraine that is unleashing the opportunities of the separatist in Luhansk and Donetsk. These elections are not legally correct after the 92 constitution of Ukraine. So even if the turnout is massive and by expected reports are all for the mighty mother Russia. My bad it’s for independence from the Nazis of Kiev and the democratic European loving rebels of Ukraine. Which is the bad seed if you listening to the rhetoric of the Russian media and master Putin.

We all know there are other actors and other carrots at stake. The dancing Slavic poles from yesterday even know that. Ukraine and the main in the hamster-wheel know that. The interim government in Kiev knows that Moscow knows this. Even if them all is saying something else. And nobody is telling anybody what the else is. We all know that this is for the long term and securing ruling and master of their own backyard. Putin is having the upper hand. Ukraine has the weak but halting support from the rest of the world. Sadly like Goodluck Johnatan has from the rest of the world in finding the 200 missing schoolgirls who is nowhere to be found so USA and UK are sending hostage specialist to help the Nigerians and their effort to find them. Also the rumors of sending them over to the border to Cameroon and sell them. Sounds just like what a group of men who bombs public areas all over Nigeria could do.

The same helplessness must the interim government of Ukraine feel. They haven’t a single shot to go with full force against Russia. It will be run so hard over that the roadrunner would smack their ass before the first bullet gets to say “hello”.

While Putin and Russia can play cool and see the pawns move. Piece by piece getting all bicycles and town of certain parts of Ukraine, if not the whole thing – why not? He has already had one slice, why not the whole pizza and that to go? Please!

So what is next? The money and the madness is already action. The kings has set up shop and playing their pawns. The next move will be interesting but if he is not swallowing the areas of Luhansk and Donetsk. They can either become annexed like Crimea or they will have the stories of the Abkazia(Georgia), Transnistrina(Moldavia) and the Nagoro-Karabhk(Azerbaijan) republics.

What do you think, will the EU and USA really react like grown men or crybabies to the actions of Russia? Will Russia take more territories in their backyard, since they haven’t really paid much for Crimea? What is the next move from either party now that Manchester City, the Poles have washed cloths on stage and Putin has taken a ride in the new Russian territory? Will Obama have another fascinating anecdote in a speech about the rich Russian culture or will he send a transformers -car to Moscow?

Peace!

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