Mali: A new coup in Bamako

In Bamako there is a new coup d’etat. This after Prime Minsiter Moctar Ouane released the new cabinet. Which clearly have sparked some harm and annoyed the military officers of the previous coup d’etat.

The National Committee for the Salvation of the People (CNSP) was formed on the 19th August 2020. The day after the previous coup in Mali, which toppled then President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta.

Today the military have arrested president Bah N’daw, Prime Minister Moctar Ouane and defense minister Souleymane Doucoure. They have been taken to Kati, the army base outside of Bamako.

This happens after a cabinet reshuffle. Meaning, the CNSP and the Transitional Government was changing the leadership and someone was left out.

The previous coup leaders is having a coup against them. The CNSP and the ones in-charge of the Transition is now stopped. There is movement of troops and the situation is unsure. The army FAMa came out with a statement on Friday. Saying there was unity among the army, but that was clearly untrue. As the strikes are paralysing the economy, uncertainty of the new cabinet and looming protests from M5-RFP.

The ones that is speculated to be behind this is ex-ministers and colonels Sadio Camara and Modibo Koné. Who were allies to colonel Assimi. Goïta who was in-charge of the previous coup. Assimi is also speculated to behind today’s coup. Though none of this is verified at this very moment. 

Clearly there is more news to come. However, the army is still controlling things. When sudden changes of cabinet can have such consequences and put the whole government in jeopardy. The military still sway most of the power and the civilians is clearly not in-charge.

The CNSP is falling, because they couldn’t get the accept from the military. Which is ironic, as the reshuffle was more army commanders in the military positions. However, not the ones the military leadership could accept.

Therefore, today we are seeing a coup against the coup. The second coup in two years in Bamako and its not a good sign for a positive transition. As the state is in constant turmoil and the ones in-charge of guns decides who gets to rule.

There will be more on this. As the colonels of 2020 coup will decide the moves forward. We don’t know what that means, but clearly this needs to be settled and quickly. As the stakes are high, but the price of gamble is huge too. They we’re able to pull it off in August 2020 and now they are at it again in May 2021. Peace.

Somalia: Office of the former President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud – Press Release (23.05.2021)

Mali: Mouvement du 5 Juin – Rassemblemet des Forces Patriotiques (M5-RFP) – Communique No. 020 (22.05.2021)

Mali: Communique de Presse No. 16 – Du Bureau Executif de l’Union Nationale de Travailleurs du Mali (UNTM) et ses Partenaires Syndicaux (21.05.2021)

Somalia: Mahama bows out [and Roble got a mountain to climb]

President Mahama whose appointment as the AU envoy has been roundly welcomed by the Council of Presidential Candidates of Somalia, and the Coalition of Somalia’s Federal Member States, further cautioned in his letter to the AU Chairperson, Moussa Faki Mahamat, that the lack of support by the Federal Government could jeopardize the whole process and undermine the hopes that the entire world has in bringing peace to the esteemed land of Somalia” (Joyce Bawah Mogtari – ‘John Mahama withdraws acceptance as African Union Envoy to Somalia’ 20.05.2021).

Today, the Primer Minister Roble is having talks at a Airport Hotel in Mogadishu. As the election impasse meeting is being held. While they are moving forward on the 17th September 2020 agreement. However, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) haven’t played their cards right.

That is why we are here today and things are still moving slowly. That’s because ex-President Farmaajo and Villa Somalia wanted this to move glacier slow. The state have arranged it like this and that’s why we are in May 2021 and things are yet to be resolved. This is deliberate and to say something else is foolish.

The ex-President wanted to so dearly to become a transitional one without any election. He even got an extension at the Lower House of Parliament, which was later revoked. This is why the whole process have become like this. Also, after skirmishes and direct bloody attacks in Mogadishu. The stalemate was getting dangerous and the means of getting their way was becoming fierce.

We should be happy that the guns are silenced and that the ex-President gave a mandate to his appointed Prime Minster to handle the security and the election. However, he could have done this much earlier and closer to his final days of office. His still lingering in office, but without any true mandate to his name. The same with the legislators and the appointed leadership in the ministries. That’s because of the game the ex-President played.

The meeting today is a sign of hope, but I don’t trust the FGS who are so easily trigged by foreign interference. They have asked the African Union to help out, but dismissed their help. They have said they don’t want anyone to interfere, but days after the ex-President went to Kinshasa asking for help. Therefore, the lack of process and due diligence is clear.

Mahama as a Special Envoy is just a scapegoat, which wouldn’t have caused any harm. Farmaajo used Ethiopians as the issue before the previous election. This election everything associated or had have talked to anyone in Nairobi is the problem. That’s why Mahama had to go because he had previously participated as a envoy in Kenya. Which is ridiculous, but the game the Lords of Mogadishu plays.

However, this is also a statement of how little it takes to not have trust. As the parties themselves cannot move things forward and blame each other. Farmaajo wants to seal his fate and retain power. That is evident. He rather have his personal armies to settle scores, than initially work things out. His risking his career and his position to keep power.

The National Electoral Consultative Assembly that’s to be held on Saturday is either a sign of real hope or another stalemate. We can wonder if they will pursuit peaceful movement or see if the FGS has laid down more traps ahead. Because, I lack trust in the FGS and how they have handled this so far. Roble has bought peace, but that’s weak peace. It can easily spire out again, if there isn’t anything substantial put forward by Villa Somalia and Prime Minister. Which I hope for, but is wondering when I can initially see it.

I hope to the almighty that they can settle and work towards the 17th September Agreement, but there needs to be proof of this now. As the months have passed and the FGS haven’t delivered it. They have postponed and played all games. Now, the empasse have to end and the reality have to kick-in.

We just have to wait and see, but expect the National Salvation Front and the Council for Presidential Candidates to act upon what happens this Saturday. There will reactions if there is no signs or movement whatsoever. We can live in hope, but Roble has a mountain to climb. He has to prove his weight and worth. Not only to himself, but to the Federal Republic of Somalia as well. Peace

Somalia: Joint Communique on the Situation in Somalia (AU,EU, IGAD and UN) – (20.05.2021)

Somalia: Center for Policy Analysis – Press Statement (20.05.2021)

Mali: Inspecteur du Tresor Issa Synayoko lettre onverte au Prime Ministre et a Toutes les Autorites de la Transition – Object: demande d’annulation des marches illicitement attributes (18.05.2021)

Mali: Communique du Comite Loal de Suivi de la Transition (17.05.2021)

Mali: Mouvement du 5 Juin – Rassemblemet des Forces Patriotiques (M5-RFP) – Communique No. 018 (15.05.2021)