Opinion: The G-40 Party, New Patriotic Front (NPF) will not matter, because Mugabe rigged the game in favor of ZANU-PF and Mnangagwa!

That Robert Mugabe and Grace Mugabe want to play decoy and be involved in the coming election was natural. That has been received the recent reports from the Blue Roof. However, this should be anticipated by the ZANU-PF and the President. Emmerson Mnangagwa should expect that, so that the resigning of Mugabe loyalist and G-40 member Ambrose Mutinhiri, whose petition to African Union and SADC to intervene because of the coup in November 2017. Nevertheless, that doesn’t seem reasonable at this point, as the gearing up to the next election is more likely.

What is weird, but natural with the Mugabe involvement is that the G-40 group of ZANU-PF, the ones who has been kicked out and the ones feels left behind after the coup. Because of the Lacoste ones got into power with the strength of the military, who is now also in the cabinet and behind the scenes. That is known and that is making these people disgruntled. That was expected and surely the ZANU-PF should have foreseen this happening. It wasn’t like he went easy and swiftly, they had to bring the guns and show the muscle before he went and the President could return.

Mugabe is a con, he has been used to using the long-con, the men around him and his family know this. What is striking is the name of the opposition party, New Patriotic Front, as if the Patriotic Front was made between Joshua Nkomo and Mugabe in 1976, as it was partnership to gain more in possible talks with the Ian Smith Government and be united towards the cause of freedom. Even in the 1970s the ZANU under Mugabe was the military support important to him, while in ZAPU’s Nkomo was unchallenged leader. Their stature was different and there was reasons so, but later he would consolidate these parties, and therefore, we have the ZANU-PF.

Now, the Mugabe has outgrown the party he consolidated and created, the liberation party that freed the country from the British, but he never released the citizens from his grip. That is why him and his cronies, so-called comrades are planning to use a New Patriotic Front, use the old term of 1970s , in that spirit to facilitate themselves in the coming elections. As they are using Cde. Mutinhiri to usher it in. Like the G-40 can re-bran itself and become opposition. After the same leaders was used to loot, take and misuse for decades. They was used that people came out of fear and loyalty, now they have to create another venue, another loyalty, as Mnangagwa has inherited the party structure and the military support. The military support that Mugabe has needed and had since 1970s.

So for me the NPF, the Patriotic Front of 2018 isn’t powerful, it is mediocre at best. Since the machinery isn’t there. It is creating headlines and they wrote petition to the SADC and AU. But not that it would change anything, the AU and SADC hasn’t said “no” to Mnangagwa, neither has South Africa or anywhere he has traveled. Mnangagwa is the legitimate president, even if it was unconstitutional. Just like so many of the elections under Mugabe. Where he rigged himself and used the army to spread fear in the community ahead of elections.

There is more likely the Movement for Democratic Change and Nelson Chamisa who taken over the mantle after Morgan Tsvangirai. He is the Chairman and Presidential Candidate for the biggest opposition party and the levels of support has been shown by the recent rallies. The NPF is still just theory, even if the people behind is used to the long-con. They are not having the military support or the steady financing like the ZANU-PF under Mugabe used too. What might happen, is that ZANU-PF might do what it did to MDC-T and others. Where the NPF will get into trouble, the leadership will be detained and their supporters might also get into legal jeopardy. This is well-known if you look into the political history and acts under Mugabe.

Mugabe should know, that the revolution he led that ate the whole country, might in turn eat him. The same monster he created for total control with support of War Veterans and the Military, has now turned on him and his G-40 Group, which now might turn into NPF. They will have the same amount of support as Acie Lumumba, might be able to make headlines, but not run anything else than a sweat-shop.

NPF seems like a far-fetched deal, seems like a dream of party, with Mugabe loyalists and disgruntled members who has fallen out with Mnangagwa. If they think they can do this, they might have to run things from Rotten Row. We can just wonder if they think they have the capacity to run against the regime, the machinery that has been made for the President and not for the opposition. The state hasn’t changed that much since Mugabe was toppled, the same mechanisms are there and they have not left the building. The ones that has left is the pictures of Mugabe and the ones who believed the words of Grace.

There are bigger possibility that Chamisa has a change, if he builds momentum and actually has causes that makes sense not only in Urban areas, but in the rural regions, where sometimes they still only see Mugabe as their President. With this in mind, Mugabe can build a new party, a New Patriotic Front (NPF), but at this moment of time, he will not succeed. They might go after his wealth, after his farms and other corrupt acts of the past. Mugabe has gotten off easy, but if he fires back. Expect ZANU-PF and the military to use things against him. It is like he has forgotten this tactic and don’t think that doesn’t apply to him.

Mugabe has made himself wealthy, also other cronies too, they we’re all eating. Suddenly the winds changed and the military supported Mnangagwa, therefore, the Lacoste won over G-40. Instead of gracefully stepping aside, as Mugabe just lost his position, but hasn’t lost properties and the family has even tried to transport their flash cars to Botswana and abroad. Clearly, they are afraid of losing their possessions.

If they start using their power and leverage, which they still have, do they think they can beat the crocodile? Do they think the ZANU-PF and the military will accept it? Do you expect them to give up their power now?

I wish Chamisa could get a chance, but just like NPF has no chance, I doubt anyone will have anything on Mnangagwa, since he knows this game and is playing invisible chess as we speak. Just like he did in the days after he got sacked and into exile in 2017. Peace.

South Sudan: The Launch of South Sudan Opposition Alliance (SSOA) – (01.03.2018)

Opinion: The Mnangagwa Presidency has brought the status quo + less roadblocks and a scarf!

There are reasons for all of this, it is and it is understandable, but however, the ones who thought it would be revolutionary changes after the coup in November 2017. You are wrong, the henchmen and people that was running the nation is still the same, just a twitch of a change in cabinet and stronger presence of the army involved in politics, that is because without President Emmerson Mnangagwa wouldn’t have toppled Grace Mugabe’s G-40 and given the edge to Lacoste of Zimbabwe African National Union – Patriotic Front. He just the other guy, who also let a general be his Vice President Constantino Chiweng, the man who controlled the ousting of Robert Mugabe into his position as a gentleman’s thank you for getting rid of his former boss.

So now, that people had high expectations, they have not been met, the only change is a few people and the rhetoric of ED. However, the state of affairs is more of the same. Giving lavish gifts to secure upcoming elections. Letting cronies of the hook to explain scandals, demonstrating students met with police brutality, the good old fashion gumbo of the ZANU-PF. We all got to know under Mugabe. It is just now under Mnangagwa and he is not ceasing the day or afraid of doing so.

The most petite statement came from the President himself talking about his achievements to the state and party paper Harare Herald, where he said: “On corruption, the phrase zero tolerance approach has been backed up by action. We instituted a three-month amnesty to get back stolen funds, mandated all Cabinet ministers to declare assets, created dedicated anti-corruption courts in all provinces and clamped down on police road blocks” (Mugabe, 2018). However, concerning the amnesty, there has been no indication that it worked or been followed by the ministries or the government for that matter. Because none of the possible people behind it has come forward and neither has statistics of possible returned funds. Therefore, seem more like a publicity stunt ala what 50 Cent does with beef, than actual policy.

After 100 days, his biggest achievement is to stop roadblocks by the police, which has been a big money business for police officers to sponge off on meagre salaries. This here isn’t a big thing, it’s a small issue, not a grand one, as the epidemic controlling and state finances that has been bountiful for the ones closest to Mugabe. Now the same might been seen with ED. The Bond-notes are still there, the trying to forge a close relationship with China is still there, the prices of exotic hunting animals are still there. Therefore, anything that is for sale is still possible to buy and that is why the state is still infringed with troubles. That is because they took the head in November 2017, but they didn’t take the roots or his cronies. They were still all there and there today as well.

ZANU-PF is pretty much the same, only a few of the closest allies of Grace is gone. The rest has a position or some sort of play. Because if ED would have a revolution that would go against the core of his existence. Since he has been a key player since the 1980s and knows that the changes will brutal to him to. He will not do that and he will not risk his own political life. Not now, that he has finally exceeded Mugabe. Even if that means paying-off all the people he needs too, until the general election. While the 82 other political parties trying to find their way, especially MDC-T with their new leader. How they will compete with ED.

He has a scarf with the colours of the flag, but he does not have the spirit of needed transformation or change, because that means that he and his cronies has to stop what they are doing. They are earning plentiful and does not want to stop the gravy train. Peace

Reference:

Mugabe, Tendai – ‘ED’s first 100 days a huge success’ (27.02.2018) link: https://www.herald.co.zw/eds-first-100-days-a-huge-success/

Nearly two-thirds of the population in South Sudan at risk of rising hunger (26.02.2018)

Sustained assistance and access critical to prevent hunger reaching its highest level ever.

JUBA, South Sudan, February 26, 2018 -More than 7 million people in South Sudan – almost two-thirds of the population – could become severely food insecure in the coming months without sustained humanitarian assistance and access, three United Nations agencies warned today.

If this happens, this will be the highest ever number of food insecure people in South Sudan. The period of greatest risk will be the lean season, between May and July. Particularly at risk are 155,000 people, including 29,000 children, who could suffer from the most extreme levels of hunger.

In January, 5.3 million people, or nearly half of the population, were already struggling to find enough food each day and were in “crisis” or “emergency” levels of food insecurity (IPC Phases 3 and 4), according to an Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) report released today.

This represents a 40 percent increase in the number of severely food insecure people compared to January 2017.

The report comes one year after famine was declared in parts of South Sudan in February 2017.

Improved access and a massive humanitarian response succeeded in containing and averting famine later last year. Despite this, the food insecurity outlook has never been so dire as it is now.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and the World Food Programme (WFP) warn that progress made to prevent people from dying of hunger could be undone, and more people than ever could be pushed into severe hunger and famine-like conditions during May-July unless assistance and access are maintained.

“The situation is extremely fragile, and we are close to seeing another famine. The projections are stark. If we ignore them, we’ll be faced with a growing tragedy. If farmers receive support to resume their livelihoods, we will see a rapid improvement in the country’s food security situation due to increased local production,” said Serge Tissot, FAO Representative in South Sudan.

A growing tragedy that must not be ignored

Overall hunger levels have risen due to protracted conflict that led to reduced food production and constantly disrupted livelihoods. This was further exacerbated by economic collapse, which impacted markets and trade, making them unable to compensate for the decrease in local food production.

Prolonged dry spells, flooding and continued pest infestation, such as Fall Armyworm, have also had a damaging impact.

“The situation is deteriorating with each year of conflict as more people lose the little they had. We are alarmed as the lean season when the harvest runs out is expected to start this year much earlier than usual,” said Adnan Khan, WFP Representative and Country Director. “Unless we can pre-position assistance rather than mount a more costly response during the rains, more families will struggle to survive.”

In areas like Unity, Jonglei, Upper Nile, and Central Equatoria, riddled by reoccurring outbreaks of violent conflict and displacement, the proportion of people suffering from extreme food insecurity ranges from 52 to 62 percent – more than half the states’ combined population. The number is expected to keep increasing unless people find the means to receive, produce or buy their own food.

Mapping hunger – projections for the first half of 2018

  • February-April 2018:  6.3 million people in IPC Phases 3 (“Crisis”), 4 (“Emergency”) and 5 (Catastrophe). This includes 50,000 people in IPC Phase 5.
  • May-July 2018: 7.1 million people in IPC Phases 3, 4 and 5. This includes 155,000 people in IPC Phase 5.

1.3 million children under five at risk of acute malnutrition

Conflict and worsening hunger have led to already soaring rates of malnutrition. Without assistance, as of May, more than 1.3 million children under five will be at risk of acute malnutrition.

Malnutrition rates are set to rise once the rainy season starts in April. Once this happens, many communities will become isolated and unable to reach medical services. The rains will make the country’s dirt roads unusable, and it will become more and more difficult to deliver supplies to medical centres.

“We are preparing for rates of severe malnutrition among children never before seen in this country,” said Mahimbo Mdoe, UNICEF’s Representative in South Sudan. “Without an urgent response and access to those most in need, many children will die. We cannot allow that to happen.”

Of particular concern are the areas around Leer, Mayendit, Longochuk and Renk where children under five face extremely critical levels of malnutrition.

Response to date

Last year, FAO, WFP, UNICEF and their partners rolled out their largest ever aid campaign, saving lives and containing famine. In 2017, agency partners conducted more than 135 rapid humanitarian missions to the most hard-to-reach areas, providing life-saving assistance to over 1.8 million people.

FAO provided 5 million people – many in difficult-to-reach or conflict-affected areas – with seeds and tools for planting, and fishing kits in 2017. FAO has also vaccinated more than 6.1 million livestock to keep animals alive and healthy. This has been vital as most of the population rely on livestock for their survival.

UNICEF and partners admitted some 208,000 children with severe acute malnutrition in 2017 and plan to reach 215,000 this year. Together with WFP, UNICEF took part in 51 rapid response missions in 2017 to reach communities cut off from regular aid assistance. The Rapid Response Mechanism (RRM) will remain a key means of accessing conflict-affected communities in the coming months.

At the peak of its response this year, WFP aims to reach 4.4 million people with life-saving food and nutrition assistance. WFP is pre-positioning food in areas likely to be cut off during the rainy season, so people will not go hungry. WFP plans to pre-position 140,000 metric tons of food and nutrition supplies – 20 percent more than in 2017 – in more than 50 locations across the country.

South Sudan: 19 Senior Officers of the SPLM/A-IO deflects to National Salvation Front (NAS) – (26.02.2018)

South Sudan: The OCHA Report of February 2018 shows that the state systematically does crimes against humanity!

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) report on South Sudan on the 23rd February 2018 to the Human Rights Council. It has some striking finds that the OCHA has been able to collect from the recent events in the Republic of South Sudan. These should not go unnoticed as the misuse of force and power, should be questioned. That the government and war-lords are continuing to salvage whatever left and spending their time on their power, instead of building a nation.

This report is spelling out devious attempts to control power and also vicious malicious acts against humanity. That should not be left in the blind. Maybe the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement/Army – In Government (SPLM/A-IG) doesn’t want this out, neither does the President Salva Kiir Mayardiit. The OCHA reports shows this and therefore, the continuation of the civil war are reasons for all of this.

Civilians Attacked:

Evidence shows that the SPLA has launched attacks directed against the civilian population where no opposition armed forces have been present to justify a military attack, and has intentionally killed unarmed and fleeing civilians in the incidents investigated by the Commission. The consistent narrative that emerges from these attacks against civilians and intentional killings is that they have been undertaken in retaliation for battlefield losses or killings of SPLA soldiers by opposition forces, or because civilians have been perceived to be sympathetic to the opposition due to their ethnicity or their place of residence in an opposition controlled area” (OCHA, P: 5, 2018).

Sexual and Gender Based Violence:

The Commission paid special attention to sexual and gender-based violence which remains a central feature of the conflict. The Commission documented many accounts of rape, gang rape, forced stripping or nudity, forced sexual acts, castration and mutilation of genitalia, which were perpetrated by the SPLA, the Mathiang Anyoor, National Security Services personnel and Military Intelligence, as well as SPLA-IO, during military attacks in Greater Upper Nile, the Equatorias and Greater Bahr el Ghazal” (OCHA, P: 6, 2018).

Recruiting Child Soldiers:

Confidential documents received by the Commission showed extensive presence of children among the SPLA and SPLA-IO (TD) forces in Upper Nile. The Commission also observed children associated with armed forces and armed groups in Eastern and Central Equatorias, on the West Bank of the Nile, and in Western Bahr el Ghazal, some as young as twelve years old. Children told the Commission of being abducted from outside their homes and schools, and of voluntarily joining armed forces and groups to protect themselves and their families. Some children were forced to kill civilians or loot, and were subjected to corporal punishment if they did not obey orders. A recent report by the Ceasefire and Transitional Security Arrangements Monitoring Mechanism (CTSAMM) (2018/2) suggests that “the recruitment and employment of ‘child soldiers’ goes on throughout the country.” (OHCA, P: 6, 2018).

Extra-Judicial Killings in Yei:

The Commission received numerous reports of extra-judicial killing of civilians, particularly of young men suspected of supporting the SPLA-IO. SPLA soldiers also repeatedly abducted civilians who were later found dead. UNMISS Human Rights Division documented the killing of 114 civilians by pro-Government forces around Yei between mid-July 2016 and mid-January 2017, pointing out that the actual number of fatalities and injuries is likely to be much higher” (OHCA, P: 7, 2018).

Crimes in the Pajok:

The Commission finds that there are reasonable grounds to believe that the SPLA intentionally directed attacks against the civilian population and deliberately killed civilians in Pajok on 3 April 2017. Furthermore, there are reasonable grounds to believe that the SPLA engaged in systematic looting and theft of private property either for personal or organisational use in the aftermath of the attack. The SPLA attack on civilians in Pajok in 2017 directly led to the displacement of nearly the entire population of the town” (OHCA, P: 10, 2018).

Crimes in the Wau:

The Commission finds reasonable grounds to believe that SPLA soldiers engaged in killings of civilians, and looting and destruction of private property in Wau town on 24-25 June 2016 and killings of civilians in Wau town on 10 April 2017. These amount to serious violations of human rights and humanitarian law, and may amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity” (OHCA, P: 11, 2018).

Crimes in the West Bank:

Based on the evidence collected, the Commission finds reasonable grounds to believe that SPLA soldiers deliberately killed civilians and extensively looted and destroyed civilian property during their ground offensive along the West bank of the Nile in 2017. The evidence provides reasonable grounds to believe that the SPLA directed attacks against the civilian population. These amount to serious violations of human rights and humanitarian law, and may amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity” (OHCA, P: 12, 2018).

Crimes in Pagak:

The Commission finds reasonable grounds to believe that SPLA soldiers engaged in killings of civilians, rape and other forms of conflict-related sexual violence, theft or pillage, and destruction of civilian and humanitarian objects in Mathiang, Maiwut, and Pagak and the surrounding villages and areas during its offensive in south-eastern Upper Nile in 2017. The evidence provides reasonable grounds to believe that the SPLA directed attacks against the civilian population” (OHCA, P: 14, 2018).

This is just the collection of the evidence that the OCHR has, and surely there are more stories not told, because of fear or because the people who flee from the battleground couldn’t speak of the violence. The assessment of the matter, is that this report is only preliminary, as the state are muffling the voices of discontent and tried to silence the local media. So we know that the UN OHCA has collected a good dose of evidence and documentation, that can verify the violations against human rights and humanitarian laws. That the state and army together in the violations, also the militias who are doing their part too.

That the SPLA has been a common denominator many parts of the Republic, should also worry as the state sanctioned violence is the reason for lots of the crimes against humanity. That they have attacked directly the ones they are supposed to defend and secure the citizens. They should not be known for terrorizing and destroying the society for the gains of the President. That is just wrong. Peace.

Reference:

Office for Coordination Human Rights (OCHR) Commission – ‘Report of the Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan’ (23.02.2018)

Botswana: “Refusal by Some Leaders to Hand Over Power” (26.02.2018)

RDC: Communique du Comite Laic De Coordination (25.02.2018)

South Sudan Civil Society Forum surprised by Minister’s Comment on Economy boom (25.02.2018)

South Sudan: “Re- Suspected Case of Sexual Abuse and Exploitation Against Some Members of the Ghana FPU Contigent with UNMISS – South Sudan” (25.02.2018)