Opinion: Will Baba go back to his ordinary “Playbook” of electioneering again?

Raila claimed yesterday that they had tallied and won; today, they claim that this is the most mismanaged election they have ever witnessed. After politicians, fear politicians again!” (Jonah Kirabo, 15.08.2022).

Saitabao Ole Kanchory: We have intelligence reports, their system was penetrated and hacked. As I said before, Bomas of Kenya is a scene of crime” (Jicho TV Kenya, 15.08.2022).

Saitabao Ole Kanchory: We have intelligence reports that their system was penetrated and hacked and that some of the IEBC officials actually committed electoral offences and some of them ought to have been arrested if they were not arrested” (Citizen TV Kenya, 15.08.2022).

UPDATE: Azimio officials demand to see presidential election results, verify them before asking Raila to attend announcement event at Bomas. Says Chebukati has been elusive today” (EAMGtv, 15.08.2022).

The 9th August 2022 General Elections have been successfully done. Now the Azimio la Umoja – One Kenya Alliance spearheaded by 5 time Presidential Candidate Raila Odinga. There are rumours and speculations to why he isn’t showing up to Bomas for the announcement of the winner of the Presidential Elections.

This election haven’t been like the previous one for that matter. In 2017 there was secret serves, agreements, interference from the well-versed Cambridge Analytica and other matters that made it possible to “annul” or make the results “null and void” in the Supreme Court. In 2022 on the other hand. Whatever results that is proclaimed today at Bomas is much harder. The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has published the 34A Forms on their server and it’s public for everyone to make a tally. Therefore, the counts and the votes are in the public. It takes much more to scrutinize now.

So, if the Azimio calls it quits and says there been tampering. If the Azimio claims of electioneering and rigging. The now Governor-Elect James Orengo and team better have evidence and proof of the mischief. Because, the Azimio has seen the process and is calling out the team now. It is also rare that the candidate isn’t showing up in defiance. That’s a sign that Odinga knows there is only bad news ahead.

That’s why this election is different and IEBC Chairman Wafula Chebukati has played this one out softly. He knew he would be in trouble if he winged it or made amends. The IEBC had to be clear and play by the rules. Yes there been plenty of days since he ballots was cast. The die was already cast. The verdict was to verified and ensured. Especially with postponement after mismanaged procurement of ballots to certain counties. That was later fixed, but the whole picture is good with the small malfunctions that were. Therefore, the characteristic of “rigging” and “electioneering” now seems like a losers excuse.

It is hard to imagine that Odinga lost. Because, he had the whole system, government and everyone who mattered behind him. He had a broad coalition, a huge platform and a career as a solid politician. However, that was possibly not enough and it didn’t resonant with enough people. The elites might wanted him and they cherished him, as he joined hands with Jubilee and was the candidate of Kenyatta.

Nevertheless, it is now possible that Ruto will be announced and proclaimed winner of the 9th August 2022 elections. That’s why Azimio before that is calling it out and dismissing it. Saying it was fabricated and fixed. This being hard to say… when everyone with a calculator can access and count on an excel spreadsheet with the 34A forms, if they like.

The IEBC used these days from the 9th August to the 15th August to verify the results. To do the checks and balances. So, it is rich to ask for evidence and proof of verification as the results are announced. That sounds a losers game and delegitimizing the whole affair. This seems like the game-plan ahead of a possible litigation. The Azimio knows the bad news and is therefore going back to scheduled programming. That being claiming it was “rigged” and taking it to the Courts.

The Azimio team is right taking it to the Courts. However, dismissing it and not entertaining the affair. Just show the bitterness that you yet again lost an election. The election of your life and the final straw in your long career. This was Odinga final journey and he could never reach Canaan. Maybe his son Joshua can, but he himself? Doesn’t seem so.

Raila Odinga and his team should reflect on themselves. They can build a case and show their evidence. However, this election has all been mature and shown character of all parties. That shouldn’t be destroyed now. The confidence of the IEBC is strong and the resilience is clear. The indication of anything else… is just hearsay right now.

That’s why it’s tragic to be like this in the moments ahead of the declaration and announcement of the winner of the Presidential Election of 2022. Peace.

Kenya: Elections Observation Group (ELOG) – Press Statement on the ELOG’s Parallel Vote Tabulation and Media’s Decision to stop Broadcasting Tallying of the Presidential Results for the 9th August 2022 General Election (14.08.2022)

Kenya: MKenya Daima – MKenya Daima Calls for Patience and Calmness as IEBC continues to Tally, Verify and announce Election Results (14.08.2022)

Kenya: Professional, Occupational and Human Rights Associations Call for Patience and Clam – Statement on the 2022 General Elections (14.08.2022)

Kenya: Evangelical Alliance of Kenya – A Call to all Kenyans to Uphold Peace (13.08.2022)

A look into the Preliminary Reports from the EOMs of EAC & AU-COMESA to the 9th August General Elections in Kenya

The 9th August 2022 Kenyan elections most of the time how an election should be operated and run. Yes, there was faults at play and the Independent Boundaries and Electoral Commission (IEBC) did some wrong moves and that’s why certain parts of the polls was postponed. However, we will see that IEBC and Chairman Wafula Chebukati is vindicated and the people should be proud. The Kenyan people with their resilience and ability to trust the process says something.

The East African Community (EAC) released their preliminary report yesterday. I will first go through their vital quotes and points. Before I will go through the African Union (AU) -Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), which was also released yesterday. These will hopefully come with interesting findings and possibly also show the strength of the system. As people are still awaiting the finalization of results and declaration of winner.

The quotes from the EAC:

The Mission takes note of the remarkable improvements made by the IEBC in regard to transparency, preparations, and management of the 2022 Kenya General elections. However, much more needs to be done for better outcomes in The Mission recommends also that in future, there should be better communication between the IEBC and the various stakeholders” (EAC, 11.08.2022).

Generally, the situation was calm, peaceful, and orderly. Most polling stations opened on time, but there were a few which opened late for various reasons including late setting up of the station, late arrival of polling materials or polling However, we were pleased to note that the time lost was compensated by late closure of polls in the concerned polling stations. It is recommended that; the IEBC should take corrective measures to ensure that these deficiencies do not recur in future elections” (EAC, 11.08.2022).

The mission noted with concern the complaints made by young people that political parties did not provide them adequate space and opportunity for them to participate as candidates in the elections. We consider this a serious matter which needs attention and In the same vein, we call upon the political actors and government to ensure that the two-thirds gender rule is observed to the letter and spirit” (EAC, 11.08.2022).

The EAC Election Observation Mission is satisfied that the way the 2022 Kenya General election was conducted on the polling day, the people of Kenya were given the opportunity to elect leaders of their choice, freely. We hope the subsequent processes will respect, uphold and reflect the will of the people of Kenya in the 2022 General Elections” (EAC, 11.08.2022).

The quotes from the AU-COMESA:

The AU-COMESA EOM noted that despite the relatively high youth population (18-35), there was low youth registration in the 2022 elections. Only 39.84% (8,812,790) of the total registered voters were youth, a decline of 5.17% from the 2017 figures. Stakeholders consulted by the Mission attributed the low youth participation to the general conception that the votes do not count in elections, lack of trust and confidence in the political system, and the youth’s unemployment and poverty in particular face in Kenya today” (AU-COMESA, 11.08.2022).

Although stakeholders had initial concerns about the risk posed by the lack of mobile network coverage in 1,111 polling stations, the IEBC put in place measures such as using satellite phones to facilitate the transmission of results. The Mission noted that within 24 hours of the close of polling, over 95% of the polling stations had transmitted presidential results forms (form 34A) to the National Tallying Centre” (AU-COMESA, 11.08.2022).

While the campaigns were largely peaceful and issue-based, hate speeches, misuse of state resources, non-adherence to campaign schedules, violence, and use of criminal gangs were observed. The misuse of state resources created an unlevel playfield, especially for smaller political players. Likewise, the non-adherence to campaign schedules caused clashes among supporters” (AU-COMESA, 11.08.2022).

The joint AU-COMESA Election Observation Mission commends the authorities and people of Kenya for their efforts toward holding successful elections and deepening democratic rule, which is a prerequisite for sustainable socio-economic development in the country. While the process is still ongoing and the results management process is underway, the Mission urges the candidates and their supporters to continue upholding the Peace Pledge and to desist from any action that could undermine the integrity of the electoral process. It encourages all stakeholders to continue with efforts toward building a peaceful and inclusive society. It further encouraged political tolerance and peace cultivation among citizens” (AU-COMESA, 11.08.2022).

My two cents:

Well, here we are and the general basis of it all is positive and that’s because the general outcome has been good. The way and the manner of the General Elections of Kenya in 2022 can be stated as genuine. That’s why these two Preliminary Reports says it too.

It is striking that both reports are worried about the lack of youth involvement and participation in the elections. These sorts of reports should be listened too, as the youth is the future and the ones to inherit the Republic. That’s why these warnings needs to be addressed somehow.

There are some details that needs to be handled and it has. Like the reports addressed the hate-speech during the campaigns, but we know the authorities has even looked into some of that. So, most of the things are positive and for a reason. The reports proves that and it’s so good. Yes, there was delays and some technical difficulties. There was some voters who wasn’t registered or able to vote. However, the grand schemes of things are good. There shouldn’t be any faults, but they are not tarnishing the whole picture.

Reading these two reports doesn’t change my views on the 9th August 2022 General Elections. Everything seems on the up-and-up. The IEBC and the authorities can feel solid about it. Even with the faults and the postponements too.

IEBC Chairman Chebukati is a victor in this one. After the 2017 elections he has saved face and shown some professionalism. Though, he still has to answer to the procurement of ballot to Mombasa, which wasn’t prepared and ready for the polls. That will also linger on him this time.

Nevertheless, the people should be proud and it seems all credible to me. The process has been sincere and honest. The next few days will show the declaration and the finalization of it. We just have to wait and see what the will of the people has in store. Peace.

Opinion: Patience is a virtue and it’s tested in Nairobi

We (Roots party) are winning this thing (the presidency)”Wilson Gathoni (12.08.2022)

There are two conflicting narratives running and there becomes more speculations as times goes on. What the Independent Boundaries and Election Commission (IEBC) did wisely this time was to publish all 34A forms from the polling stations across the Republic. The public cannot say the information isn’t there and secondly, there is no missing server or asking for verification of the results of the server like in 2017. That was really smart and transparent of the Chairman Wafula Chebukati.

Now that the days are lingering on from 9th August 2022 and the fatigue is setting in. The announcement of MCAs, Governors, MPs and Senators are all under way. They are settling in and people are getting to know the ones representing them on local level and on National level. However, the waiting game for the Presidency is really tiring, but maybe needed.

That Azimio la Umoja – One Kenya Alliance and Kenya Kwanza Alliance are awaiting the results are an understatement. One is saying the inviable is happening and the other saying freedom is coming. While high ranking officials of both camps trying to either peddle propaganda for themselves or acting like they are firm on outcome.

Whatever it is … it seems like a stalemate, as the national TV channels has stopped or cease to count the numbers. The threshold of 50+1 is maybe impossible. There is all sorts of speculations and that there been rigging both ways. While the IEBC and the Chairman is at ease and seems to have a more clear head than in previous elections.

People are wondering if it was either Raila Odinga or William Ruto who pulled it off. Because, both parties and their associates has spread numbers making significant claims of victories. Nevertheless, that isn’t proven just yet. That’s why on the 12th August 2022 we still don’t know the victor and who will be announced of these two gentlemen. What we do know.. is that the two other candidates has close to nothing and was pitiful sideshows with non to show for it.

Bomas will have the answers and that is very obvious by now. The IEBC was smart and makes it possible for the candidates to look over the forms and collect the tallies if they wanted too. That’s why the national broadcasters could do so and they started, but for some funny reason they stopped. Maybe they feared the anxiousness and maybe they got tired of it too. The teams wasn’t good enough or got tired of calculating. Whatever it is…

There is only one thing to do and it’s to wait. The IEBC is the one that has the final words. Bomas will be the place and Chebukati will announce it. We can just wonder who it will be and by what margin. Since the numbers until now makes it seems as close as it can get. There is no sort of show or obvious sort of game-changer.

That’s why it’s a waiting game for Odinga and Ruto. They just have to wait. There men might peddle a lot hearsay and rumours, but that doesn’t make it true. Until, the IEBC has verified it and feels certain of certifying it. They will do it, I suppose. The credibility of it all stems on that. Because, certainly the Chairman don’t want yet another lose in the Supreme Court like in 2017. He wants it to be righteous to save face and name. Since, Chebukati hasn’t been the most trusted man of the land, but that could change wit this one.

Now everyone just have to patience and it feels like forever. Nevertheless, the truth will be out and we don’t know what that will be. Peace.

Kenya: Jubilee Party Observation on the 9th August 2022 Elections (11.08.2022)

Kenya: Angaza Movement – Angaza Statement on the 2022 General Elections (10.08.2022)

Kenya: Defenders Coalition – Defenders Coalition Election Watch 2022 – August 10th, 2022 – 20:00 HRS (10.08.2022)