“The government is borrowing without proper revenue planning or policies that factor in revenue growth challenges. This, according to Parliament’s Budget Office, coupled with the growing need to finance projects, will see the level of Kenya’s debt increasing in the coming year, which is already a cause for concern for some” (Kenya NTV, 2016)
“Exactly who is the brainchild of the new Jubilee baby? Deputy President William Ruto is thought to be the force behind the formation of the Jubilee party. He is said to have engineered the formation of the party in preparation of the 2022 general election, but not to those in the know. In fact some say Ruto maybe the biggest loser in the new set up, not everyone thinks so as Ken Mijungu found out” (Kenya NTV, 2016)
Today is a day where I have questions and they are big because when you crunch the numbers for the last three fiscal years and estimated debt ratio it’s start to be worrying. It isn’t a sweet and tender way of asking. I know, but the numbers and the citizens will have to repay the amounts of borrowed cash at one point. As the Japanese will not deliver second-hand vehicles to the hospitals forever like they did during either this or last week in Kenya; Kenyan Government shouldn’t base their budget on handouts, but on tax-monies. The budget now is worrying as the levels of budget that are borrowed as it is going directly to portfolios that are day-to-day business instead of giant infrastructure development.
Why do I say that? Because each year you can question the ratio between the debt and the development projects; like in 2013/2014 the debt we’re 330bn, but the development 224bn. That is a 100bn used on day-to-day instead of building roads to Ethiopia or planning the Standard Gauge Railway. Take look!
In the 2013/2014:
At the fiscal year ending the 25th July 2014 the budget debt we’re 330,440,692,719.35. That means there 330bn debt, which we’re 25.8% of the National Revenue. National Government budget spent on development we’re 224,355,607,699.00 or 224bn.
In the 2014/2015:
At the fiscal year ending 24th July of 2015 the budget debt we’re 400,249,353,175.10. That means there 400bn debt, which we’re 25.1% of the National Revenue. National Government spent on development we’re 270,320,838,230.00 or 270bn.
In the 2015/2016:
At the fiscal year ending the 22nd July of 2016 the budget debt we’re 683,479,898,203.50. That means there 683bn debt, which we’re 36.9% of the National Revenue. National Government spent on development we’re 333,170,357,469.90 or 333bn.
So as you see, the FY 2013/2014 isn’t the worst. FY 2014/2015 is the start of loose government spending. The Jubilee all of sudden borrow 400bn and spends 270bn. That is 130bn that is used on day-to-day business, with loaned fiscal funds instead of the ordinary tax-base that the government should be fixated on. So with the last year FY 2015/2016 the Jubilee went all out in the stratosphere and borrowed from any bank or institution possible; as the debt we’re 683bn and the development we’re 333bn. That is 350bn that are used to day-to-day business and not development. The question remain why the sudden giant loan ratio towards the last year before election and why the lack of projects to use the newly granted funds.
The fiscal responsibility seems weak and not there when a government can splash this kind of funds and use this amount of debt on day-to-day instead of big projects and infrastructure projects needed. I am sure DP William Ruto has more friends that can be sub-contractors for some Chinese infused borrowed road projects around Kisumu. But, the ability to sustainable development with the steady rise of debt is worrying. That the IMF and World Bank is saying the debt ratio is still feasible should be worrying. As the IMF and World Bank never had control of the worst years before the Greece defaulted and needed saving grace from the world around it. The worst comes to worst when the Kenyan Government starts to default and reach it’s limit they have to have a mercy on the Jubilee and the counterparts who are paying for loose fiscal behaviour. The worst comes to worst with the giant amount of added fiscal funds might give the economy a edged inflation and bank rates that weakens the Kenyan Shilling as the deficit between reality and what is really used.
You can wonder why the Jubilee wants to hedge up so much loans and government debt. When the FY 2013/2014 and FY 2014/2015 we’re the net domestic borrowing around 300bn, but by FY 2015/2016 it become 500bn. That is a jump of 200bn of Domestic Borrowing. That should also be questioned together with the ratio already in the budget. This doesn’t seem like a healthy fiscal policy. The public should question the use of the borrowed domestic and total ratio of debt. The governance levels and accountability of the funds should be asked from Opposition and also the Auditor General. The Inspectorate of Government the IGG or Ombudsman should hassle the hustling Jubilee who has gained these funds and been responsible for the allocated budget and inquired for the option for loans to development and day-to-day use.
What do you think? Peace.
“A section of ODM members of parliament have dismissed the new jubilee party as an attempt to roll back the gains made since multi-party democracy was re-introduced in 1991. Led by Siaya Senator James Orengo, the mps alleged that President Uhuru Kenyatta is out to stifle democracy by presiding over the dissolution of more than 10 parties to form the jubilee party. And in Nairobi, another group of Odm mps have asked co-principals Kalonzo Musyoka and Moses Wetangula to support Raila Odinga’s presidential bid next year” (Kenya Citizen TV, 2016)
Find something wrong as the 12 Party coalition of the current Jubilee Alliance becomes a new political party during the next month, but the launch we’re today. This is supposed to be joyful, but will start a power struggle and negotiations for the slots for official position in the new party as the former ones ran on ticket for each of the 12 parties in their constituencies, but now will run for the Jubilee Party and cannot even run against each other for another term under the new Party Organization controlled by President Kenyatta and his DP Ruto.
As he boldly wrote today:
“Proud to announce the transformation of our alliance and the launch of the new Jubilee Party, with representation across the nation. We are guided by ideological clarity, a solid development agenda and a progressive governance platform” (Uhuru Kenyatta, 09.08.2016).
The easy thing is announce a change, but to transform a change is much different. Just ask Barrack Obama and his plan to shutdown Gitmo. That didn’t actually go as planned. The same will happen with the Jubilee Merger as the 12 parties and their loyalties of the past will come together and work against a common goal. Because the One-Party will run on one platform and under the current leadership; the organization has to be organized to make sense and gain confidence.
Uhuru Kenyatta have not only inherited people and constituencies under the other parties gone together, but party organizations and party history that has to embedded in the new party. Jubilee should emerge through the different spectrums of leadership from all of the 12 parties combined. Not only the main leadership dodging the minor parties and their loyalties. The different political cultures and backgrounds will also come to surface as they worked on their own in their own area, but now the Nairobi cannot run on 12 tickets, but on ONE from Jubilee. This make the negotiations hard and will make some hurt. The discussion on righteous places and nominations will not happen naturally. People think the CORD will struggle with the leadership trio and the one running for Presidential Nominee for the Opposition. The problem will be who can be the nominations for the Jubilee in the counties and regions for Senators, Governors and Members of Parliament. They will have to garn and credible become nominees for the new party through the new organization.
The Jubilee, might be all smiles today after two days of PR exercises at the State House. As Ruto and Kenyatta we’re all giddy and happy today of their achievement of building one singular running government party. Still, the issues before the coming General Election will be hard not to hurt or lose relations as the different parties might want their golden boys up for re-election and the frictions between the old 12 parties might come to forefront. The agreement might be easy to sign as any official document. It is the actual doing and the ratification of it that is the hard scenario. As there are MPs, Governors and Senators who might have to be swallowed in the coming election for the sense of the New Jubilee Party!
Trust me, there will be fallouts, there will allegation of centralized organization who decided over them and the persons from so-and-so we’re not respected. Trust me that will happen as certain individuals will feel the new program doesn’t respect the old-party and want to leave and run as a independent. It will happen as the months are coming, especially when it comes closer to IEBC deadline for nominations of candidates to the General Election.
The last issue, why at the State House? Using government funds and government facilities to launch the new Political Party? Why not a hotel on the bills of parties as they are not government themselves, they are representing the people as representatives of the citizens. They do not own the State House for private and party business, but for government official work. The launch of a new political party is not official government business as the General Election is coming. The Kenyatta Government show’s not well considering of how they use their state resources.
The State resources are used on state business and civil servants who works for the state. The President and New Jubilee Party might become the Government after the next election. Jubilee Coalition should have done this elsewhere even if it is easy and well-spaced area to launch a party. Still, the justification to use official and State House to own party organization is questionable. The Kenyan Government and under the 12 Party Coalition should be more cautious with the use of Government facilities. Especially if it is for Party work and not direct state. The Kenyan citizens deserve the honor of just behavior from their politicians. They will sometimes blunder, but this is more likely the modus operandi by Kenyatta and Ruto. Peace.