Statement Issued by the Inter-Governmental Authority On Development (IGAD) on the Ongoing Political Tension in Somalia (26.03.2018)

Ethiopia: Desperation hits the TPLF as they are detaining more political prisoners again!

Just as the releases has appeared, today and yesterday the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front with their State of Emergency and Command Post. Has again started to arrest both opposition leaders and activists. In both Oromia and in Amhara.

Also, just days ago, the state arrested again Seyoum Teshome, since the journalist is such a man, that the state fares his written word. That it might infest the public with hope and not despair.

In Bahir Dir, the state has arrested 19 political activists, because they we’re planning to form a political party, that is illegal by the State of Emergency, because all political activity is suspended. Except for the Central Government, that has for days struggled to find the next Prime Minister, as the Council of Minsters hasn’t been able to find anyone suitable or one that can be a puppet Prime Minister for the TPLF government.

In Addis Ababa. Eskinder Nega, Zelalem Workagegnehu, Temesgen Desalegn, Befeqadu Hailu, Mahlet Fantahun, Andualem Aragie, Adisu Getaneh, Woynishet Molla, Yidnekachew Addis, Fekadu Mahtemework and Tefera Tesfaye.

The reason for this that is leaked for the arrests in Addis was this: “Update: Police undergoing investigation, accused Temesgen Desalegn of killing attempt on Police officers. Police also inquired Temesgen why they haven’t requested permission to have gathering: Temesgen in response, there is no need to do that for a private gathering” (Ethiopian Press, 25.03.2018).

These arrest is happening, while the EPRDF has planned to publish more motivational quotes online, just to build up the spirit of the people. While there are detaining the voices of the people. Its is a miss-match of what they want to accomplish. Since they are not building fruitful changes, but just oppressing the people even more. Just like they did in the past. They are not trying to move forward. More going backwards, with some motivational quotes online.

Just to prove how foolish the EPRDF is this days, the state broadcaster Fana stated this yesterday: “In yesterday’s session, it also discussed on ways to address these challenges and bring about better understanding among the parties. The Council also underscored the need to protect the federal system from any threat, the statement added” (FANA BC – ‘EPRDF Council continued its meeting with sense of unity: Office’ 24.03.2018).

So because of the threat they see, they are now re-arresting the activists, writers and opposition leaders. Because they cannot do anything else.

We know now the State of Emergency is really making the state insane, they are fearing people meeting up together. Just like they have put the aggressive rules, and we know that if it is in the provinces, it is dangerous to even crash on motorcycles like in Moyale. This state makes everything spiral into a crisis. Instead of fixing things, they are creating new wounds and new battles. Not talking, not finding solutions, but silencing and oppressing the people.

That is why there are people who are dissenting in Oromia and Amhara, they are tired of being muffled by this regime, the Woyane, who doesn’t listen, but only shoots or detains. Peace.

Fragile Somalia is now taken advantage of by its neighbors!

Just as the International Community, the United Nations and African Union Mission are holding a tight grip, while the Mogadishu political scene is in full squabble and in-fighting. The neighbors are setting their sights on more land, Somali land to take control over. Over the last 24 hours, there are reports that Ethiopia has taken control over Aato District of Bakool province, where the Ethiopian government has built a hospital and a Police Station. They have annexed it without any forewarning.

Just like that the Kenyan government has started to building a border wall at Beled-hawo Town, the Kenyans are extending their border and their land with the building of the wall. It is a trick to grab some more land away from Somalia. Just like Ethiopia just have built themselves as a state in Aato District. That is the province closest to the Ethiopian border. So, it is fitting, the same as the Kenyan.

This is happening as the Berbera Port deal between Somaliland, Ethiopia and DP World has gotten into issues, as the Mogadishu politicians are trying to stop it and also the connection with Ethiopia. Who has already had a Berbera Corridor, that has been a project since October 2014 and has involved both IGAD, World Bank and other international development banks. All to secure a transport hub between Addis Ababa and Berbera port. That is fitting that the added pressure and lack of transparency between the regional government and the central government in Mogadishu, gets into question. That led to issues between Speaker Mohamad Osman Jawari and Prime Minister Hassan Ali Kheire. Money talks and also adds guns.

That is why the whole play of the international community, while the Mogadishu government lacks control and oversight. While most of the family members of the cabinet are living abroad, while the leaders themselves, are eating for bad deals. And they don’t have the security or training to secure the borders. That is why Kenya and Ethiopia are taking charge on the porous borders, they are invading and annexing land. Because it has no consequence to the sovereignty of Somalia.

AMISOM, who has foreign soldiers on mandate cannot even keep Mogadishu totally safe, as the escalation of car-bombs and fatalities of civilians are a sign of troubles ahead. The President hasn’t attacked or asked for reasons for the neighbors annexation of land. Even if he cares or afraid of doing so. While the PM isn’t acting on it either. Even UN’s Micheal Keating hasn’t addressed it, he who loves to be the face of the Republic. Now he is gone missing on the map. Just like President Farmajo, who should fight for his borders and his state, instead he is busy elsewhere.

This is worrying, that the Kenyans can take this land, that Ethiopia does too. That them all are doing this, that the DP Deal with Ethiopia, while the secrecy of the Berbera Corridor deal is showing it was planned a long while ago, since Ethiopia is landlocked and wants more safe ports than only in Djibouti. That is the sign, it is the Ethiopian power-play, while Kenya just showing power to take more land in self-defense. Still, it is not right to do that to a sovereign.

I am not even Somali and I am worried about the porous borders, the lack of manpower, the Somali National Army and the Police Service, when the foreign states can just do this. You take a breadcrumb, another breadcrumb and next time slice of bread, with time you take the whole bread. That is how we are as people, state is not different from that. As a weak state, that is taken advantage by its neighbor. They know this, because the AMISOM and UN Mission is not training or trying to achieve a secure state. The ones in Central Government want to live on donor funds and rampant corruption, instead of building institutions and stronger army to secure the borders. Because if they do, then they cannot beg for aid. A pledge they can eat without doing any work for it. Peace.

Final Communique of the Nairobi Action Plan on Durable Solutions for Somali Refugees and Reintegration of Returnees in Somalia (22.03.2018)

IGAD, EU and Austrian Development Agency sign agreement on Peace and Security in Horn of Africa (23.03.2018)

Opinion: Have Kagame put a spell on the West?

You can wonder if the sins of old haunts the West, if the support and the strategies that worked back-in-the-day is now a lost tale. The hope for change and for a different outcome is gone. President Paul Kagame will run indefinitely and never step down. I don’t know if the West feel in debt for the crisis it didn’t prevent and didn’t manage properly in 1994. Where Kagame together with the rebel-militia supported by President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni entered Rwanda. They had already been apart of the National Resistance Army (NRA) and the new government under National Resistance Movement (NRM). Kagame has done the same with the Rwandan Patriotic Army (RPA) and made it into a party with the Rwandan Partriotic Front (RPF). Just after the model in Uganda.

Therefore, what you see in Rwanda is similar to what you have seen in Uganda. However, there are difference, that is why the chilling relationship between the neighbors. Kagame has worked closely with Uganda, they have sent armies together in the Democratic Republic of Congo, they have worked together to support the M-23 there too. They have been weapon brothers and brothers in arms. Still, the West let them both go. It is weird, but that is where we are. Both Museveni and Kagame can do whatever and get away it.

Kagame is either detaining or killing his enemies. He is doing it just like the Russian do. Rwandans has been poisoned in the United Kingdom, strange fatal accidents in South Africa, even in exile there are dangers if you have crossed Kagame. No-one is hidden from him and if they did him bad or even questioned him. He will find you and make sure you pay. Everyone can be touched and everyone can be taken.

Kagame has total control, nothing that he doesn’t have a stake in, there are clear that the state is part of all society. If there a dissidents or people questioning him, even if they are challenging him in public. They will be tarnished and detained, their family enterprises will be seized. There is no mercy and he never shows that to anyone.

That is maybe why the Western media, NGOs and States in general are walking on needles, they need the minerals he is thieving from the Kivu provinces and therefore, let him off the hook for the support of militias within the DRC. Let him of the hook for the human rights violations, for the killings of opposition and for the totalitarian activities. Where no one but his will matters. Kagame is the king and the sun first shines on him.

We should be worried, because he doesn’t lack use of violence and harassment, he hurts and kills. He might be successful to a certain extent, but we should be worried about the efforts and his involvement across the border. There are even claims of his use of spies and such in Burundi. Clearly, that could be the truth, since he has used all sort of manipulation and militias to get funding from abroad. Therefore, it is weird he is a donor friendly person, but also someone who has no issues with silencing his enemies. That should be worrying and that should cut him off the gravy-train, also sanction the companies that are importing his conflict minerals. Peace.

Burundi: Lettre du président Pierre Nkurunziza au président de la Commission de l’Union Africaine Moussa Faki Mahamat (14.03.2018)

Ethiopia: Wrongly blame Eritrea, its all self-destruction mode from the TPLF!

Reading in the recent hours that the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) have started to blame the old adversary Eritrea. There has been skirmishes during the recent years, just like Eritrea has annexed land from Djibouti. Therefore, if it was true, it would be believable. However, I doubt that Eritrea is the reason behind the demonstrations and the protests in Oromia. That is lie from the Command Post Secretariat. They have to walk on water like Jesus before I believe that.

The TPLF and Aghazi squad is the one that is creating trouble on the Horn of Africa. The TPLF and the military forces in the provinces of Amhara and Oromia is the troublemaker. They don’t need forces from abroad to create chaos. They have done it perfectly well on their own. That is proven with the massacre in Moyale. Where total of 8500 approximately fled to Kenya. Therefore, it is not like the State of Emergency and the use of military force against civilians isn’t showing consequences across the border.

To blame this instance the Eritrean Government is a deception, as the matter in hand and the occupation troops are their own. They are the ones shooting, killing and detaining own citizens. Who is peacefully protesting, like the gasoline strike in Oromia this week. That has stopped convoys of petroleum to reach Ethiopia and the hurting of the economy that does. This is because their voice is not heard and if the security agents thinks something is happening. Like a motorcycle accident, it can turn into a massacre like in Moyale. We cannot have faith in this sort of government. Where they raid homes, throw tear-gas and kill kids who are parts protest. That has happen again and again. They don’t need outside sources for their troubles.

While Ethiopia is blaming Eritrea for the State of Emergency, they are the ones sanctioning and punishing their own public. They are using military seizure of towns, road-blocks and threats. They are limiting the voices and expressions. They are using all means to silence the ones speaking against the TPLF and EPRDF. They are pulling a blind eye on the ill-will of themselves. While not asking themselves, why these people are demonstrating in the first place. The greed for power is evident and has been for long.

They are blaming Eritrea, but they should be careful, because they are putting high stakes in Somaliland and you can wonder if they can pay the bills for their arrangements with Djibouti, with the railway and the possible pipeline. This will be proven if the Ethiopian government can carry that too. While the government might also pull strings into Somalia it cannot carry, as the relationship with Djibouti might become fragile. Therefore, the escalation of the protest and the demonstration might cost even more for TPLF.

The TPLF and EPRDF should be careful, but instead they are stirring the pot on the Horn of Africa. They are just missing to piss of Kiir and the Juba government. Saying something about Cattle Rustling from the border region. However, that has not happen, but wouldn’t be surprising. The acts of the EPRDF claiming this about the Eritrean. Is a way of washing their hands of dirt, instead of taking more responsibility for their actions against their own citizens, they claim a foreign power came in a created havoc.

The TPLF should look into itself and pound on the predicament it has put itself in. It is self-destructive, it will create a revolution that it cannot control. That because it didn’t reconcile, that was a decision it made and should regret, but the will to stay power by all means. Has been the way of this government. That is why so many political prisoners been detained, why so many innocent lives been taken by the soldiers and why so many people been hurt by the security agents. That should be shocking, but instead it is just another day in the TPLF era.

You can put blame, but that doesn’t make it real, you can make up stories, but that doesn’t make it true. It would better if you took the blame, used some of the courage of the decrees of shooting on your own population and carried the hurt on your own backs. Instead of deflecting and trying to spin it away. The only think it shows, is that your desperate for legitimacy and for making the ill actions righteous. Which isn’t a good move.

Time to step your game up, TPLF, take the courage, man-up and stand-up for the ills you have put onto others. Just because you want to be in power and rule the whole Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia. It is time, to swallow your pride and show some mercy, show some accountability and not just blaze the guns. You will just be further and further down the cliff of destruction and fuel a revolution in the provinces, which you cannot hold-on too. Because there isn’t enough of you, but more of them. It is simple math. Peace.

Burundi: Cabinet du President – Decret No. 100/027 du 18 Mars 2018 Portant Convocation des Electeurs pour le Referendum Constitutionnel de 2018 (18.03.2018)

Coup in Mogadishu Part II: Was the action today from AMISOM a redeployment or a takeover of the Parliament?

Yesterday’s stand-off in the Parliament as the two tabled ‘no confidence’ votes transpired into the Prime Minister Hassan Ali Kheire decision to send the Special Guard to the Parliament to prove his power to the Lower House Speaker Mohamed Osman Jawari. Today, The African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) sent troops to the Parliament to settle the stand-off of yesterday, if these we’re the orders of the Force Commander Lieutenant General Osman Noor Soubagleh or somebody else is hard to know.

But the political squabble and the use of military force to settle the score cannot continue. This transpiring efforts will only undermine the state and the means of the Federal Government of Somalia. That is not a show of strength, when the PM orders the Special Guards to the Parliament, neither is it show of strength, when the Peacekeepers has to occupy the National Assembly. We all know that is a bad sign ahead. No matter what they call the action today, if it a redeployment or a takeover. Yesterday, was a vicious act to spike fear in the mind of Jawari, even if I doubt it would do that to him,

We can wonder where President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Farmajo has been, why he hasn’t said anything, condemn either of the political actors, neither his deputy or the speaker. No one has been answered, the President is so silent. You could think he was hiding beneath a rock or try to get to Addis Ababa. Because, he is not heard from. Even the fishes speaks more of the recent acts in Mogadishu than him, I am sure Nemo has some answers for Farmajo.

Another one, who usually challenges the political landscape and acts like a local kingpin, is United Nations Special Representative for Somalia, Michael Keating. I was expecting to blaze all guns and spiteful chants of different types. As he sometimes at international affairs and even at forums are more viable than heads of the Federal Government of Somalia. Therefore, in an affair like this, he might should have taken more charge. Since he likes the spotlight and looks like he matters in Somalian questions.

With the AMISOM actions, they clearly used the status of the 11 Point of their mandate: “To provide and assist, as appropriate, protection to the Somali authorities to help them carry out their functions of government, and security for key infrastructure” (AMISOM – ‘AMISOM Mandate’). So the Parliament can be seen as part of Somali authorities and key infrastructure. Some call the acts today a redeployment and not a takeover. But after yesterday, it seems like an act to show their mandate to the people.

Since the Special Guards came yesterday, we can wonder how this will evolve, how the different fractions will behave and how the next few days will be. Since the PM has used the army for his personnel gain, while questions of others non-action shows their true face. It should be expected that the President acts and also address his closest Deputy, instead he has left him go of the hook. He could also have addressed the Speaker to clear the air. Instead, nothing has happen and the transpired affair shows.

The ending of a political career can show the weakest links, can show how they act under stress. The PM goes to use soldiers and use of the army to settle his affairs with men who wants him away. The Speaker tries to use protocol and find out if he is allowed to do the same. However, the one with the guns stops all activity, but he loses face, because they know it was wrong behavior and the world knows it.

PM Kheire has flipped has cards, but he doesn’t have a full-house, not even a straight flush, he should have wished he had a royal flush, but he didn’t. We could wish the PM had bluffed, but he didn’t stack the deck, he just went into with a bad hand. The risked all with all-in without knowing the consequences. We will see if he wins, but it will not be because of brilliant tactics, because it hasn’t been.

AMISOM has acted, but the tale of the Lower House of the Parliament is not over and the ‘No Confidence’ for either the Speaker and PM will come up again. But the one that has lost face is the PM. Who has misused his position and put himself in the line of fire, because of either arrogance or fear for his position. Peace.