Opinion: The RNC is weakened as a fraction starts the RAC

This isn’t the first time a sponsored militia goes separate ways. The Forces Democratiques de Liberation du Rwanda (FDLR) have created many different outfits and the biggest currently of those is the Rwandan Movement for Democratic Change (MRCD).

In July this year the Rwanda National Congress is split into two parts. This being the RNC run by Kayumba Nyamwasa, who has support from Kampala. While in Canada, the diaspora of RNC have launched the Rwanda Alliance for Change (RAC) on the 6th July 2020. The signatories to the manifesto, which is also online is Bellamin Bakamira, Tabitha Gwiza, Achille Kamana, Anicet Karege, Saleh Musoni Karuranga, Pacifique Mukobwajana, Dr. Etienne Ndagijimana, Jean Paul Turayishimye and Benoit Umuhoza.

Clearly Nyamwasa is losing his support in Canada and that is weakening the RNC. The RNC have been run by him and with his orders. That has over time caused friction and therefore, the new one is created. We can wonder, if the diaspora based RAC will try to convene a meeting in Kisoro or elsewhere in Uganda too. As the RNC have been recruiting in Uganda.

The MRCD is already weakened, as they caused issues for Kigali last year. However, we can wonder how the operations are going. As they have been known for attacks from Burundi. While the RNC have only lost people after high ranking officials held talks in Uganda last year.

This has all created diplomatic entanglements between Kigali and Kampala. As the proxy wars are hitting home. The Kigali based diplomats wants Kampala to stop supporting efforts to undermine their reign. While Kampala doesn’t listen to it. They are continuing it.

We can wonder, other then t he main objective to topple the Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF). Like all of these outfits are claiming is their will. While they cannot work together for too long.

Now that its another militia with goal and objectives in the sphere. That for some reason will be around. We can wonder how big it is and where it will recruit. Even the manpower and their planned operation. Other than going after the RPF and President Kagame.

The only looser here is Nyamwasa and his allies. They are loosing support and getting another competition. While Kigali will get it easier, as there are smaller fractions and will have less suction. It will also be easier for intelligence operations get a whiff of what is going on.

However, we cannot know until more information is out. Clearly, there are shady works being done behind closed doors. Nevertheless, 2020 continues to deliver and we can wonder what costs the RAC will have. Peace.