Opinion: Al-Bashir’s government is broke, that’s why he is so invested in South Sudanese Peace Process!
Today’s news from Khartoum all makes sense, as the bread-riots and rising prices are now hitting the government, as the President of Sudan, Omar al-Bashir had to dissolve and cut-back on government spending, this is happening as the Khartoum government have been more involved in the Peace Process of Juba and South Sudan, than usual. Surely, there are with some reasons. I will get to those, but as there are some clear indications why, now as the Sudanese government clearly lack fiscal funds and needs to revise their budgets. As the Cabinet is shrinking in.
“Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir has decided to dissolve the country’s national reconciliation government, Al Arabiya News Channel can confirm. Instead, Bashir has reduced the number of ministries under a newly formed government to 21 portfolios. Among the changes included the appointment of Moataz Mousa as successor to Mohammed Osman Rikabi as finance minister and Sadiq Ahmed al-Nile as successor to Ibrahim Mahmoud as interior minister” (Al Arabiya English – ‘Sudan’s Bashir dissolves govt, appoints new ministers’ 09.09.2018).
Because, there was vital part of the Khartoum Declaration of 25th June 2018, that bugged me like crazy and now that Khartoum is clearly going into a deep economic struggle. Those parts of the agreement makes more sense and why Al-Bashir made himself such a sponsor of the agreement between the SPLM/A-IG, SPLM/A-IO, SPLM-FPD and the SSOA,
What was striking to me, was this article from June 2018:
“To delegate the government of Sudan to take the necessary steps towards securing oil fields in South Sudan in coordination with the Government of South Sudan, and to work on the rehabilitation of the oil fields with the view to restore previous levels of the oil production. In this context, the outstanding issues between the two sisterly countries of Sudan and South Sudan related to oil sector shall be resolved” (Points of Framework Agreement, 25.06.2018).
Today, it makes even more sense, as the rise and production of oil, that will go through the pipelines will add revenue to the state on the brink of economic tragedy. Because, Khartoum cannot be in a good place economically, when they are scaling down the size of the government and ceasing ministries. That shows that the Sudanese are lacking fiscal funds and are in dire need of new revenue sources. However, that can come from South Sudan, if they get their act together, have peace and have less internal fighting. Than the pipelines can provide Khartoum steady rates of the flowing oil to Port Sudan and ensure petro-dollars. That would save the day and the face of Al-Bashir.
That is why he has taken a further stake, as he needs the oil revenue now, as his state are lacking funds. Because no sensible state overnight, makes order to scale-back without some lack of fiscal funds to run the operations of these ministries and pay for the civil servants there.
We can just await riots and trouble, unless Al-Bashir gets sudden funding. This is the writing on the wall and the reasons for sudden involvement in the peace process are now more evident too. As he needs all the barrels of oil he can, because that can save his fiscal revenue and ensure all his allies are paid. Peace.