Ethiopia: If Ethiopians are joining the war in Ukraine – They are dying for a War that isn’t theirs to begin with…

Everyone now clearly understands that Russia and all Russians lie. Trying to recruit Ethiopian Youth, Russians do not tell anybody that as of April 18, 2022, over 20000 of RU invaders has already met their Death in Ukraine. Felt defeated in Ukraine, Russia insidiously tries to mislead and play its dirty games” (Embassy of Ukraine in Ethiopia, 18.04.2022).

Today in Addis Ababa there been long lines and queues outside of the Russian Embassy. As there are reports of a total of 2000 Ethiopian citizens that has signed up to fight on the Russian side of the Ukrainian conflict.

That is only mere reports that has been refuted by the Russians, but they are willing to lie about everything. While the Ukrainian Embassy in Addis Ababa says they are recruiting. The Ukrainians are the ones who is defending their territory and nation against the Russian-Belorussian invasion, which has lasted for over 50 days now.

It is very unique, if these Ethiopians join this war. This isn’t a world war and neither is a conflict that has spiralled outside of the borders of Ukraine. No, for now it is a Russian-Belarus-Ukraine thing for the most part. The Russians warns everyone else of not to move, think or coordinate. While the Russians has already gotten Syrian mercenaries and could easily try to conscript Ethiopians to fight their battles.

There is already reports that the Russians needs reinforcement badly. As on Job-Sites and Work-Offerings the Ministry of Defence is offering unique and patriotic-based contracts for the ones who is willing to sacrifice and fight for Russia in Ukraine. The Russian Federation and it’s army needs recruits. That is evident after all the losses and the total failure of the swift invasion, which was supposed to happen within 48 hours or three days…

However, here we are and Ethiopians are queueing outside the Embassy. Some is said to have with them a passport and documents to prepare visa’s and signing up to participate in the conflict. That means Ethiopians would fight on the Russian side of the conflict.

The ones that queueing today is supposed to part of Amhara Para-Military Group “Fano” which is supported by Amhara Regional State and been vital in the war against Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Fano is the extremist and fascists of Ethiopia who has fought for Amharian supremacy and a Greater Amhara. So, they will fit well in with the Z brigade of Moscow and be in-line quickly with the Russian propaganda of Kremlin. Therefore, if that is true. It is a match made in Hell and not in Heaven.

Nevertheless, the Ethiopian mercenaries or conscripts is signing up for a war that isn’t theirs in the first place. They will not be honoured and be respected for their efforts. These will be cannon-fodder and die like flies on the front-line. The Ethiopian soldiers will not conquer or overcome Ukrainian forces. They will only be a temporary fix and a possible strategy of cutting the losses of the Russians own brigades.

The Ethiopian Youth and “Fano” might see this as a possible way of training, expertise and a possible pay-check. They rather fight a war far away and get credit for it. In such a way of leaving desperation at home to flee to “greener” pasture in Eastern Europe. However, they will bleed and die for nothing. The Russian will not honour their sacrifice or write tales of glory for their participation. No, they are just useful pawns on the chess-set and the first to catch a bullet for them.

The Ethiopian mercenaries will not linger much hope. When the Russians themselves has struggled and lead to many tactical defeats for the last 50 days. Why would Ethiopians make a huge difference? No, I don’t think so. Not because they are not warriors and cannot fight a battle. No, it is because of the conflict they would enter and the enemy they are meeting. It is not like it will be easy and be friendly. No, it will be brutal and they spare no one. Especially, the soldiers and the ones who is representing Russian invasion force.

That’s because the Ethiopian or “Fano” will be part of the invaders and an invasion. They are not part of the defence or the ones who is defending their homeland. No, they are going after Ukraine and on Ukrainian soil. That is a death wish and they will not return home as heroes. They are joining an imperial power and partaking in unjustified war. This is why nothing good will come out of it.

The ones signing up for this… is signing up for a death sentence and Moscow will not repay them. They are just taking a bullet for Kremlin and no love will ever be lost. These youths and Ethiopians will not return or be able to tell about the war they entered. Because, the Russians wouldn’t spare them. They are the ones they can risk and send to the front-line without any costs. Since, they signed up for it and they got to fight. There will be no option to flee or seek shelter. No, they are there to fight the cause of Russia.

A cause that will end up in caskets or not even that. They will be left behind on the battlefield and forgotten. A bloodshed and a sacrifice of a willing. Youth and Amhara militia members who fought a war that wasn’t theirs. The tears and losses will be felt by their families and loved ones. Who knew that they went and never heard from them again. Families and villages who saw their sons leave for war in Eastern Europe. Where they never returned from and only got a mantle or a signed off on war-grave. However, they will not return with stories of greatness or of adventures. No, they will be scorn, torn and bleed for a conflict, which wasn’t theirs and never will be theirs to begin with. They will be the lost souls and the sons of far away who could have lived life in peace and created a future in Ethiopia. Instead they sought after glory and a pay-off from Russia. A pay-off they will not receive. Since most of them will die before the Russian Federation or Ministry of Defence has to even care about their salaries. Peace.

BTW: It would make a difference, if the Amhara or Ethiopians joined the Ukrainian side either. This is a war for the soul of Europe and a war against European imperialism. Where the NATO/EU and Russia are on each side. As the Ukrainian are fighting for its own independence and sovereignty to join whatever entity or alliance it see fit. While Russians wants to have control of their neighbours. Which is why there is no natural reason or argument to defend the participation of Ethiopian Youth or “Fano” in either sides of the conflict in Ukraine. They will not be remembered or written tales of glory. No, they are mercenaries who will die in unmarked graves, which is undignified for their sacrifice, but an end, which is most likely to happen.

BTW II: Don’t say nobody didn’t warn you or didn’t write about it. Because, I did and I am concerned, because their lives matters. Just like all lives does and this was a death that could have been avoided. However, decisions are made and there is always consequences to the actions we make. Peace.

Djibouti: Ministere des Affaires Etrangeres et de la Cooperation Internationale – Communique (15.11.2021)

Opinion: Obasanjo has an unforgiving mission in Ethiopia

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia, March 21, 2016 – Some of Africa’s leaders are responsible for instability on the continent because they have failed to manage diversity in their societies, the former Nigerian President, General Olusegun Obasanjo, has said” (TANA Forum – ‘Press Statement: “Some African leaders to blame for conflicts” – Obasanjo’ 21.03.2016).

Today Olusegun Obasanjo as the Representative of the Chairperson of the African Union for the Horn of Africa. One of his key objectives and mandate is to mediate in the Ethiopian conflict. Alas, he has a mountain to climb and it’s an unforgiving job. This is a position and a office, which isn’t for the kind-hearted. Since, the parties here are in the trenches and in a brutal war. They are not in this for a small token or to get global recognition.

Obasanjo is now meddling and intervening within a battle, which has become broader and wider than what the Tripartite Alliance anticipated. The alliance of FDRE, SOE and Amhara allies didn’t anticipate the formation of a broad alliance of nationalities to combat the Tripartite Alliance. Therefore, at this point, the war isn’t only Addis Ababa-Asmara versus Mekelle. No, it is much more wider and with the objective of rectifying the leadership structure of the nation.

This is why the African Union (AU) is late here and the talks is only stalling things. The mediator can drop a statement saying today: “I am optimistic that common ground towards a peaceful resolution of the conflict can be secured. The interlocutors I have engaged on all sides have stated their wish for peace, security, and stability in Ethiopia. The main point of difference between the actors is in the means by which they seek to achieve this essential objective. War represents a failure of politics. Thus dialogue remains the only reliable and sustainable avenue to peace. There is no military solution to the conflict and battlefield victory cannot guarantee political stability in Ethiopia. I, therefore, appeal to the leadership of all sides to halt their military offensives. This will allow an opportunity for dialogue to continue to progress. Such talks cannot deliver in an environment of escalated military hostilities” (African Union – ‘Statement on the Prospects for Peace in Ethiopia by H.E. Olusegun Obasanjo High representative of the Chairperson of the African Union Commission for the Horn of Africa’ 14.11.2021).

It is like Obasanjo haven’t learned from his own experience. Just 5 years ago as a Tana Forum speaker or delegate. He spoke of the reason why we are seeing a war within Ethiopia today. The diversity and marginalization of certain groups is the reason for the conflict in Ethiopia. That’s because one man wanted to consolidate all power and use old grievances to settle it. He wanted to overcome the TPLF and by doing so hurt the Tigrayan ethnic group. This he got done by getting allies who has suffered, because of the leadership in Mekelle.

Deep down, I think Obasanjo know the difference and the difficulties here. The parties are not willing to really talk. These are just cordial meetings to buy time. We know the United Front against Prosperity Party is running towards Addis Ababa. This is just common knowledge as they are aiming to use arms to change the leadership. They are not trusting or having faith in negotiations. That’s why the former President is to hopeful in this manner.

I don’t see Abiy or Afewerki talking to Debretsion. I wish I could, but these have already vilified and gone total genocide on the enemy. They are arresting people for being associated or allegedly associated with either Tigray Defence Force (TDF) or Oromo Liberation Front (OLF). Therefore, seeing them talking or having a meeting seems unlikely. If the TPLF/OLF went to talk. I would be worried of arrests and authorities surrounding the venue. This is why the hope is very dishonest at this moment of time.

The talks Obasanjo was maybe positive and had a good vibe. However, those vibes will not change the matters on the ground. As the FDRE is going into a “survival campaign” mode and the TDF-OLA is slowly advancing towards their target. This is not a time or a moment of thinking these will give way. No party will earn on it and that would only salvage the reign of Abiy. A ruler, which is a warlord and someone who many wants gone. Therefore, if Obasanjo wants to save his term or if he wants peace. That is two difference objectives….

I don’t see the hope or the possibilities of quick or brief ceasing of military operations. That means an unilateral ceasefire, which means all parties would silence their guns. The Tripartite Alliance never did that and only played the facade of that. While they we’re still annexing Western Tigray and besieging the rest of Tigray region. Therefore, Obasanjo is too positive or naive. I doubt any of the parties will give way. These parties will fight to the death or until they have to go to exile. Peace.

A memo to the AU: If IGAD can’t do it, why do you think Obasanjo can do it?

The African Union (AU) has today appointed the former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo as the High Representative for the Horn of Africa. The African Union Commissioner might have the best interests at heart here and the will to make a difference. However, at this point of time and with the leaders at today. This appointment will go nowhere.

The AU could have appointed a saint, a maverick and a superstar to this role. They could have had the best negotiator even known to mankind and it still wouldn’t resolve anything. In 2021 and with the current head of states. There will not be any will or resolve to silence the guns. No, that’s not happening.

Mr. Obasanjo is getting another pay-check. He is getting another retirement-fund and additional high ranking official status. Being a diplomat and getting VIP treatment in Addis Ababa. He will not lack the perks and the bottle-service. However, that will not change the matters on the ground.

If there would have been a possible change, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) would have made some significant moves. The IGAD is already there to do this and ensure stability on the Horn of Africa. As IGAD says itself: “IGAD to be the premier Regional Economic Community (REC) for achieving peace and sustainable development in the region. Mission: Promote regional cooperation and integration to add value to Member States’ efforts in achieving peace, security and prosperity”.

So with that in mind, the Horn of Africa should already have an organization and the apparatus to achieve peace and security. Now, that is futile and lacking. That’s why the AU is boosting it’s operation and hiring Obasanjo to make things look good. However, he will not go anywhere or get anything done. At least nothing substantial or fruitful. Except for cashing-in and enjoying VIP treatment.

Obasanjo will get the cold-shoulder, which Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok has gotten. Not to mention the double-speaking and erratic diplomatic cables of Mogadishu. Which we have seen in coordination with the AU Chair of the Year Felix Tshisekedi. When Hamdok have gotten silent treatment from Addis Ababa. Not like Asmara will be friendly either. Djibouti President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh will be all smiles, as he has all the major powers having military bases and that’s why he feels untouchable.

The former Nigerian President have to magic. He has to show all of his tricks of his trade and negotiations. As there are several of conflicts and not lacking of guns in rotation. There are so much hurt, pain and social animosity. That it isn’t a steady and strong Horn of Africa at this point. No, everyone is pinned in one conflict or another.

If it is battle of clans within Somalia. If it is Al-Shabab sending suicide bombs or retaliating at the AMISOM mission somewhere. If it is Issa-Somali militias targeting Ethiopian regions of Ogaden and Afar. If it is all the Liberation Fronts going to war against the Tripartite Alliance within Ethiopia. If it is the skirmishes and the simmering conflict between Ethiopia and Sudan over the Al-Fashqa triangle. Together with the genocidal war in the Tigray region of Ethiopia. There is no stop of warfare and conflicts currently happening.

That is why Obasanjo have not only a mountain to climb but several actually. In combination with the elections in Somalia. There is no shortlist of hurdles and hardships. If he will even touch on those and not only smile for pressers. It would be likely to have low-level consultations and meetings. However, he will not gather all the hopeful and neither be allowed to meet all parties. No, the states involved rather wants to annihilate and get rid of enemies. They are not willing to talk to them. That’s why IGAD has failed and why Obasanjo will be left astray as well.

Obasanjo will be a nice-poster child for this. He will bring good publicity but not achieve anything. That is the outset and the ones around making sure of. It is not like the heads of state is changing in a matter of no-time and that these are suddenly becoming will partners of dialogue. Especially, when they haven’t considered or even tried before. That’s why the mission of the High Representative is futile.

He should call up IGAD and get their in-put. Because, there is nowhere to hide here and the snakes are ready to bite. Peace.

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