Confidential reports stern warnings about the Italian national bank debt ratio and possible damaging scenarios when restructuring it!

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The Astellon Capital Partners report on the Italian nation debt is troublesome, as the reports are indicating troubled waters ahead for controlling the debt and repayment on the defaulted loans. This will create other higher issues than only the Greek debt and interest-rates from Brussels and Berlin. The Italian and Rome problem will cause monetary effects for all of Europe, as the debt are like his:

“1980 –1995: Debt / GDP increased by 64%, due to high interest rates levied by Bank of Italy to fight inflation and promote exchange rate stability of Lira within European Monetary System, precursor to the Eurozone” (…)”1995 –2015: Debt / GDP increased by 11%, due entirely to debt servicing costs as Italy ran a primary fiscal surplus over this period” (Astellon Capital Partners, P: 2, 2017).

The continued pressure of the Italian debt is showed with the average primary balance since 1995 have been 2, 1% and the average interest costs of the GDP have been 5, 5%. “Italy among the most fiscally sound member states in the Eurozone, yet also among the most burdened by interest costs” (Astellon Capital Partners, P: 3, 2017).

These numbers are not really positive at all, as the high interest rate by the Bank of Italy together with the rise of debt servicing that increased 11% alone in a decade. That the Italian state have the amount of costs of interests amounting to 5,5% says lots of the economic pressure on the budgets and fiscal policies within the government structures. This does not like a prosperous and strong economic situation.

The report continues with more worrying numbers that the Italian labour costs are 11% higher than rest of the EU average. Certainly also that the average productivity of the labour are 12% lower than the Eurozone average. So you got higher paid workers that work less, which also isn’t strengthening the economy.

That the Italians bank’s they have deflated badly loans that has gone from under 5% in 2005 to the running value of close to 15% in 2016. So that the European Central Bank have bought into the government debt issuance: “2014 –2019: At current government debt net issuance rates and announced QE levels, ECB will have been responsible for financing 100% of Italy’s deficits from 2014 –2019”. This is if the debt is: “Assumes €50bn annual run-rate of government net debt issuance” (Astellon Capital Partners, P: 6, 2017). That is a hefty sum when considering all the other fiscal issues that already put forward.

“Substantial increase in non-bank net purchases of Italian debt required ECB and Italian Banks acquired 88% of government debt net issuance since 2008. Over next six years non-banks will need to increase purchase activity to 7x that of past nine years” (Astellon Capital Partners, P: 7, 2017). So a nation that struggles with high paid performance with low productivity are suddenly needed to get the workforce to 7 times higher purchase activity, meaning the production and selling has to increase seven-fold if the state should have ability to sustain the defaulted debt that has increased and the debt the ECB has bought. Together with the Italian Bank gold-reserve which is lower than the stated and needed figures to be sufficient. The bank has gold-reserves by today’s value about €100bn, but by the ECB agreement need to collateralised that needs to be up to €350bn. That the report claims to be only 25%; while the assets are dwindling too and that is also worrying!

The Assets have from 2011 gone from being around 0% or none, to 2016 when the assets of the Italian bank is now in 2016 -20%. Because this have come a German proposal to avoid an new Argentine Bank collapse case. As the Italian Bank are required independent assessments of debt sustainability.

The great risks for Italy and the Italian republic are these scenarios. Like the hedge funds can buy into with high risks and yields through BTP yields during the 2016-2017. Second scenario in 2018 is that the ECB or European Central Bank will be a marginal buyer of the government bonds and buying debts. Third scenario is that the Italian Banks becoming net-sellers and therefore losing their assets with less of profits in the 2016-2017. Last scenario is unilateral re-profiling or re-domination or some form of Greek-Haircuts by 2017-2018, that means trade-offs and cutting taxes to try to revamp the economy (Astellon Capital Partners, P: 21, 2017).

With these numbers and situation, there are certain men in ECB and in Italy that is worried. The strength and sovereign nation of Italy has to find ways of restructuring the debt and assets. What is certain is that the debtors cannot take it easy on this one. The Italian debts and reserves are worrying as the debt has to restructure and the focus on how the Italian republic has to get more productivity and create more production so the taxes and debt per GDP can go down. This will be painful for the Italian state and their government institutions, together with all the debt and bad-debt that the state has to cover, because the banks cannot afford to lose all of these fiscal funds. There have to be a revolution of something if the Italian republic and its workforce are able to 7 times higher purchase activity. That will not come easy and how they will ever achieve that must be by a unicorn arriving and spinning the Fiat wheels of Torino more than ever before; even getting the world more hooked on Milan fashion design or Illy coffee. Peace.

Reference:

Astellon Capital Partners – ‘Q1 2017 Notes No. 24 – Ciao a tutti: An orderly restructuring of Italian debt’

Leaked: UNHAS priority is to ship out Kenyan citizens out of SPLM-IO controlled areas in South Sudan, like the Akobo area!

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On an internal United Nations memo from 6th February 2017, there been stating this that United Nations Humanitarian Air Service (UNHAS) have described a certain interesting scenario:

“On 23 and 24.1.2017, while being Kenya, two prominent SPLM-IO officials from Akobo area disappeared under unclear circumstances. Kenyan Authorities have been accused of detaining with the intention to repatriating them. Pro SPLA IO Mass Media speculates that the two officials were secretly transported and delivered to South Sudan Government” (UNHAS Ross Aviation Security Notice, 2017).

So the story between South Sudan and the Kenyan authorities continues, as both governments have claimed in different times to have citizens behind bars. Like Kenyan civil activists ask for freeing Kenyan Nationals in South Sudan, the same is now known and even in internal note inside the UN and their agencies.

Because of this the UNHAS also decided:

“UNHAS International Staff, Operators & users, WFP Security & WFP Country Office advice to inform all Kenyan citizens to be cautious while travelling/deployed to/from IO areas” (UNHAS Ross Aviation Security Notice, 2017).

If this is true, than the SPLM-IO are targeting not only SPLM/A, but also Kenyan citizens that are part of the UNMISS mission in the republic. That says a lot of the rebellion and their target of anyone who isn’t them. As the SPLM-IO will therefore give it all to create fear and control their areas. As even UNMISS and blue helmet personnel could easily be taken by the IO.

As the note continue:

“UNHAS users are advised to analyse the necessity to risks of sending or keeping Kenyan citizens in the field, in IO areas and especially Akobo” (UNHAS Ross Aviation Security Notice, 2017).

So the UNHAS are clear that the Kenyan part of the mission should not be extended to areas that involves the IO as the fear and the risk of disappearing from the mission there. The UNHAS will also do this to make sure things goes as smooth as possible:

“If Kenyan citizens are to be transported out of IO areas UNHAS will solve these requests as a matter of priority” (UNHAS Ross Aviation Security Notice, 2017).

So we can see that the Kenyan nationals are now a priority and main objective for the UNHAS as part of the UNMISS mission, as the fear of disappearing citizens, the SPLM-IO are really showing their objective to control and spread fear in their regions of control, so the UN Humanitarian Air Service has to secure their transport out of there. This is a further proof of the fragile and the lack of rule of law in the regions under SPLM-IO regime. It is worrying not only for Kenyan, but as much for the South Sudanese themselves. As this is a proof of the grand issues in the state itself. This wouldn’t be an issue if there we’re peace and was honouring of the latest peace-agreement by both parties. Peace.

Illinois State Representatives prepares for a Zombie Apocalypse!

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“Zombies, what are you going to do with them? Just keep chopping them up, shooting at them, shooting at them”Martin Scorsese

This is actually a serious legislation in the United States, in a smaller State Representatives Emanuel Chris Welch, Grant Wehrli and Tim Butler. All of them must really fear ‘the Walking Dead’ and ‘the Night of the Living Dead’. Certain Tim Burton or other film makers must wonder what the Representatives in Illinois have been watching the last few months. Surely they might fear what happening in the Washington D.C. as the first of month of President Trump has made the American legislature problematic. Also with added protest and other created issues, the Illinois Republicans want to be prepared for the worst case scenario.

Here are parts of the House Resolution from yesterday:

“WHEREAS, If the citizens of Illinois are prepared for zombies, than they are prepared for any natural disaster; while a Zombie Apocalypse may never happen, the preparation for such an event is the same as for any natural disaster; and” (…) “WHEREAS, Disasters disrupt hundreds of thousands of lives every year and can have lasting effects, both to people and property” (HR0030, 2017).

So the state that has their assembly and capitol in Springfield, are afraid that the violence and uncertainty of a coming disaster. That the whole state has to prepare them for a coming Zombie Apocalypse, certainly the people of Chicago must be ready. Also because of this the representative has further stated:

“RESOLVED, BY THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES OF THE ONE HUNDREDTH GENERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE STATE OF ILLINOIS, that all Illinois residents are encouraged to participate in preparing for a Zombie Apocalypse, and have a plan that includes, signing up for local texts and weather alerts, developing emergency communications for the household, collecting significant documents and storing them in a safe place, and gathering emergency supplies” (…) “RESOLVED, That we designate October 2017 as “Zombie Preparedness Month” in the State of Illinois, and urge all Illinoisans to educate themselves about natural disasters and take steps to create a stockpile of food, water, and other emergency supplies that can last up to 72 hours” (HR0030, 2017).

So the State Representatives wants the citizens to prepare for ‘Shaun of the Dead’ get enough weapons, food and water inside their homes, enough canned food and make sure they can see the different between the living dead and the ones that still ordinary human. Therefore the ones on vials and looking like just barely living in the suburbs or public housing in Chicago might be reported to the Police as they could become Zombies without the State Officials and Law Enforcement knowing. The State Representatives should also create laws to secure the stocks of food and quality of water, as the damage it could have if the Zombies seems walk silently or disorderly from Lincoln Park towards Williams Boulevard. We never know what they might be up too.

What we certainly know that Wall-Mart and other bigger stores might get a big buy in October of canned goods, water-barrels and other needed products for the Zombies arriving close to Bloomington or even Rockford for that matter. Certainly even Colts or 380s will be a top seller in the closest guns-and-ammo shops in Champaign. What we don’t know if the Zombies will prefer the Route 72 through the state or the route 57. However, weapons and food must be necessary for the Illinoisans to buy, as they want to secure themselves and their grandkids. Peace.

Reference:

Illinois General Assembly – ‘HR0030 ZOMBIE PREPAREDNESS MONTH’ (09.02.2017)

Ross Thomson MSP letter to Kevin Stewart MSP on Brexit (06.02.2017)

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#ThisFlag: Evan Mawarire – “I’m so glad to be back home in Zimbabwe where I belong” (Footage)

“Thank you for your support and for speaking out for Zimbabwe. None of us should ever be intimidated into silence. This is our home and we have the full right to participate in making it a better country. Like we said in the beginning, HATICHADA, HATICHATYA! ASISESABI njalo ASISAFUNI! FED UP & NOT AFRAID!” (Mawarire, 10.02.2017)

Opinion: NRM works on overtime to delegitimize the FDC though various media, since they are themselves an illegitimated regime!

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There are running battles between the shadows of the Movement and the Forum for Democratic Change has been going on for a while. This has happen as Secretary General Nathan Nandala-Mafabi wrote this in the EALA Nomination letter to the 10th Parliament wrote: “These clearly spell out the positions of the Ruling Party and the Official Opposition Party in the multiparty democracy. In regard to numerical strength. EAC Treaty is also clear on multiparty democracy”.

So now that the FDC is the official opposition party and not the winner of the General Election 2016, even though the rigging master Eng. Dr. Badru M. Kiggundu of the Electoral Commission and the deputy chief justice Stephen Kavuma had to ban the campaign of defiance, that was the Presidential Candidate Dr. Kizza Besigye who run hard against the ruling party and the ruling regime of President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni and his National Resistance Movement.

So with that in context, the months after has been smeared with irregularities and malfunctions as the NRM and their Police has targeted FDC with full force. This they did with detaining members and leaders without court order, house-arrests, blocking of the headquarters and all sorts of other injustices done with an ordinary fashion of contempt of the constitution and law. These have been done as the 10th Parliament was sworn-in and the President was busy having dignitaries from Turkey and South Korea.

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Now that 2017 has arrived and ever since December 2016 the Independent Magazine editor and founder Andrew Mwenda has gone all wild on social media. At the same time TVO has disgraced him and his magazine. The graceful attempts have not been there as the words have addressed each other in fashions that would be in bars and not all in public. So Mwenda are using all tricks with his connections as he even seemingly has traded his popularity and his work ethic for goods from the ruling regime. Because he has gone from being a fierce critic of the Movement and now he defends them.

With this in mind Mwenda has attracted and attacked with more and more staunch words, even as he becoming a laughing stock and a wild-card. Even if he would have pieces of truth, the spin and the propaganda fashion of it all is spoiling facts that might be there. Just like Uganda Media Centre and Hon. Ofwono Opondo spills the beans and defends the Movement with all means. Though his entitled way of sounding more like a NRM Spokesperson than a man who is government spokesperson is showing the transgression of the party itself; just like the NRM inner party election for the EALA done over two days there.

This is still not an issue in nation of Uganda and under the rule President Museveni, which want to be legitimate by every mean possible. Therefore he uses the media and false stories on NTV Uganda where the Party Constitution of FDC is in question. As NTV Uganda wrote yesterday:

A plan to amend the constitution of Uganda’s main opposition party, the Forum for Democratic Change could cause a huge rift among its members if it goes through. The plan is to change clauses in the constitution to allow former FDC leaders another go at the helm of the party. According to the movers, many of FDC’s past leaders have been rendered useless to the party and yet they still have a lot to offer.” (NTV Uganda, 08.02.2017). However, as the story unfolded the FDC leadership debunked the story, Besigye said he would never run as a candidate under that or heard about it. TVO came out saying it was Mwenda who was the source and Hon. Francis Mwijukye wrote this about the farce:

“ Am told that there was a confusing story on NTV last evening about ammending the FDC constitution. Will be hosted on NTV Uganda 8.00 to 8.30am today morning. Let me go and make it clear. I think I was misquoted” (…) ”We were asked about the future of former FDC leaders and party founders. All I said was that I would support an inclusion in the party constitution of a party organ to deal with a council of Elders whose sole role would be to advise where necessary and for institutional memory. There was nothing like allowing former leaders to compete for top FDC positions in the party asked to me. Otherwise I can’t support that amendment” (Mwijukye, 08.02.2017).

When the higher echelons from the FDC are addressing the matter nearly simultaneously with the clip of the story aired, there are clear indications of malpractices in the standard. The NTV surely did this for political purposes. Just as there we’re reports that NTVs Sheila Nduhukire did directly celebrate with the NRM Party when they had done their EALA Primary Elections at the State House. Certainly the media and media houses are getting to close to the ruling regime.

We can just expect that government fuel illegitimate stories in their portrayal to demoralize and legitimize their own existence in power. Because they cannot do it by their own merit anymore, that gravy train left the station long time ago. They will use all means to establish and make the blatant ignorance of Mwenda and use their connections in NTV Uganda to portray the FDC as wolfs or even better wolf in sheep’s clothing.

The NRM and the Movement cannot sell the truth at this point, because that will undress their own existence and their own established fanfare of just cause. The probable cause that has left long time ago, the decades of bribes, thieving and misgivings has now caught up with them. The rigging and ill-forced ways are now what entitles people and therefore EALA elections are ugly instead of silent shows of democratic balloting. The NRM has to use the media and spin to make their biggest threat FDC into a shambolic affair of political charade. Since they have the ability themselves to make itself look unwise.

So the spins and the lies of deception will continue to fluster from the NRM and their media hawks, but still the truth will shine in the end. Peace.

#SONA2017: Mmusi Maimane speaks to the media outside Parliament after walking out (Footage)

Kenya: GoK Statement on the court rule concerning Dadaab Refugee Camp (09.02.2017)

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Statement by the IGAD Executive Secretary on the current drought in the Greater Horn of Africa (08.02.2017)

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The Drought Situation

The Horn of Africa is in the midst of a major drought resulting from La Niña and reduced moisture influx due to the cooling of the ocean water in the east African coast. Whilst Member States of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) are adept at managing droughts, what makes the current drought alarming in the Equatorial Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region is that it follows two consecutive poor rainfall seasons in 2016 and the likelihood of depressed rainfall persisting into the March – May 2017 rainfall season remains high. The most affected areas include, most of Somalia, South-eastern Ethiopia, Northern Eastern and coastal Kenya, and Northern Uganda.

The climate predictions and early warnings produced by IGAD through advanced scientific modeling and prediction tools, which were provided to Member States and the general public, have elicited early actions (preparedness and mitigation measures). Highly comparable to the 2010 GHA drought, the current depressed rainfall and resultant poor vegetation conditions since March 2016 eroded the coping and adaptive capacities of the affected people. It also depleted water points, reduced crops, forages and livestock production, increased food insecurity, and adversely affected the livelihoods of vulnerable communities in the region.

The number of food insecure human population in the region is currently estimated at 17 million. Certain areas in South Sudan and Djibouti are already under an emergency food insecurity phase, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) classification scale. In Somalia, the number of food insecure people doubled in the last year alone.

In the drought affected cropping lands (over Deyr area in Somalia and coastal Kenya), 70 to 100 percent crop failure has been registered. Livestock mortality has been particularly devastating amongst small ruminants with mortality rate ranging from 25 to 75 percent in the cross border areas of Somalia-Kenya-Ethiopia. In addition, livestock prices have dropped by as much as 700 percent.

Terms of trade have declined in the region, with Ethiopia registering a figure of almost 10 percent. This is exacerbated by a substantial negative impact on external balances, as well as a small impact on financial sector-soundness in the other countries. The overall impact on fiscal positions is a likely increase in current budget spending and deterioration in the fiscal balance and weak adaptation capacity.

Despite the downtrend in global agriculture commodity prices, the drought has resulted in an increase in domestic food prices in the region. Cereal prices (e.g. maize) have gone up by about 130 percent, while those of critical food items such as oils, beans and wheat flour increased by at least 50 percent in some pastoralist areas. The limited financial and institutional capacity for effective adaptation to reduce exposure and vulnerability will result in limited safety net to the most vulnerable households.

Drought Response in the Horn of Africa

With the early warning and technical assistance provided by IGAD, Member States have initiated early action to mitigate the adverse impact of the current drought.

Somalia and South Sudan have declared drought emergencies. Kenya announced a doubling of expenditure on food relief to ease the pressure in the drought-affected counties, while Uganda shifted some of its development resources to finance emergency response in order to address food insecurity and livelihood protection. In Somalia, the President of the Federal Republic, as well as state and regional administrations led the issuance of appeals for support and coordinated actors and efforts that scaled-up food security activities to respond to the humanitarian needs of the country.

The USD 730 million allocated by the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia boosted the response effort which, coupled by an above-average meher harvest, resulted to an almost 50 percent reduction in the number of food insecure people, for example, from 10.2 million to 5.6 million.

IGAD continues to reinforce the actions of its Member States using them as guide for complementary action on drought responses. Below are some of the major actions being undertaken by the IGAD Secretariat and its specialized institutions to manage the drought in the region:

  • Through its specialized institutions, IGAD continues to monitor and provide analysis of the evolving situation and advise Member States and the general public on measures to mitigate its impact. The 45th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 45), which ends today in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, will present the consensus climate outlook for the next season (March – May 2017) and its likely impact on disaster risk management, livestock production, water, energy and health etc.
  • A multi- humanitarian coordination mechanism led by IGAD that includes UN agencies, Civil Society Organizations (CSOs), and other Non-State Actors (NSAs) is effectively working to coordinate the response effort, as well as guide the recovery process once the situation stabilizes.
  • IGAD is also working with relevant national authorities, UN agencies and CSOs in each member state on the development of an Integrated Regional Appeal that will articulate the priority initiatives within the response plan for each Member State.
  • Furthermore, IGAD will support institutional arrangements and capacity building that needs to be in place to allow humanitarian response plans to be implemented in timely, effective manner.
  • A regional Ministerial Meeting will be convened by IGAD at the end of this month to launch the Integrated Regional Appeal and secure financial resources, which further complements the response undertaken by national authorities and humanitarian and development partners, while at the same time building resilience to climate-induced disasters.

Through the IGAD Drought Disaster Resilience and Sustainability Initiative (IDDRSI) Platform, the ultimate purpose and objective of IGAD and its Member States is to mitigate the adverse effects of disasters through building resilience of relevant national institutions, communities and people, to end drought emergencies and contribute to the achievement of sustainable development in the region.

In this regard, IGAD will remain vigilant in monitoring and advising the people of the region on the drought situation through its’ specialized institution, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC) domiciled in Nairobi, and shall continue to support and complement regional and national actions on drought response and recovery.

President Trump: “Presidential Memorandum: Suspension of the Conflict Minerals Rule” – Legalizing export of questionable minerals from the DRC!

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