IMF statement on Uganda’s current Economic framework has a “grey” list, but a steady core inflation!

The International Monetary funds have concluded yet another visit to Uganda. As todays statement and insights to the economy is dim. There is not much prospects or much goodness to take out of it. Unless, you are thinking to invest while the inflations are rising and hoping it does not stop. Even though the needless to say, it has been like this before after General Elections in Uganda. That the economy has suffered a blow and a shock, which has hurt the economy and food prices. Therefore, sparked demonstrations and uprisings, like that last big one in Walk to Work and Activist for Change in 2011. It is clearly on the same path, but just in 2017 instead. President Yoweri Museveni likes to repeat himself!

“Inflation has edged up, mainly reflecting the effects of the drought. Food price inflation rose from 5 percent year-on-year in September 2016 to 22 percent in April 2017. With this, headline inflation recorded 6.8 in April 2017. Core inflation stood at 4.9 percent, in line with the Bank of Uganda’s (BoU’s) 5 percent target” (IMF, 2017). These numbers are showing the decline and increase of common commodities, even if the Core Inflation is around the estimated level; the food prices are showing the problems in the economy in general.

“The authorities have made some progress on structural reforms. Two structural benchmarks have been met on time, three with delay, and the remaining five are pending. Most notably, the authorities moved forward the legislative agenda that will support Uganda’s exit from the Financial Action Task Force “grey” list—the laws now await President Museveni’s assent. The Ministry of Finance, Planning, and Economic Development published reconciled reports on the stock of outstanding arrears at end-June 2016 (3.2 percent of GDP). Pending reforms include sending the BoU Act Amendments to Parliament, publishing the report on end-December unpaid bills, and sending to cabinet a policy for regulating mobile money” (IMF, 2017). The GoU and President Museveni have not complied totally and made laws objectively transparent. Therefore, there are laws awaiting the approval and be requested to Parliament, as the state reserves and budgets are still enforced with the will of the President. In addition, a proof of the maladministration is the amount of budget arrears that was in last budget year, which will hit the economy, as the bills have to be paid this year.

“Uganda’s external position is broadly consistent with fundamentals and desirable policies in 2016. The current account deficit is projected to temporarily increase over the next 5 years as infrastructure and oil sector investment ramp up further. Achieving the envisaged growth dividend of these investments is essential to maintaining external stability—just as for public debt sustainability. International reserves at end-December 2016 stood at US$3 billion (5¼ months of next year’s imports), above the adequacy level suggested by the IMF’s metric for credit-constrained economies. Going forward, the BoU can purchase reserves opportunistically and would meet the EAC convergence criterion of 4½ months of imports. The flexible exchange rate regime is serving Uganda well” (IMF, 2017). Therefore, the government and IMF envisions that the future prospects of oil monies will be sustainable for the current loans into infrastructure projects. It even envision it and with that will ensure external stability and trust into the economic climate of Uganda, that shows that the trust in future gains is the ones; that makes people have faith in the Ugandan economy.

This is all here proof in stated language that the IMF are looking through the budgets and their laws. Nevertheless, is not addressing the trillions shillings suddenly disappearing, neither the Presidential Handshake, as these are just figment of imagination for the foreign economic advisors. They just do not see it or does not want to see it. Peace.

Reference:

IMF – ‘Uganda: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2017 Article IV Consultation Mission and Discussions for the 8th Review under the Policy Support Instrument’ (16.05.2017) link: http://www.imf-fmi.africa-newsroom.com/press/uganda-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2017-article-iv-consultation-mission-and-discussions-for-the-8th-review-under-the-policy-support-instrument?lang=en

Port of Trouble: IVS Pinehurst arrival story and origin from the Jubilee doesn’t make sense!

The ship coming to the Port of Mombasa in Kenya, the IVS Pinehurst, which is owned by the Nisshin Shipping Co. Ltd, which is part of the Pool Operation at the Hansa Tankers. That is based in Bergen, Noway, so the Pinehurst is a bulk carrier. It is flagged through the Philippines. It’s call sign is DUHUB and it was built by Tsuneishi Cebu in 2015.

On Vessel Finder, the 13th January 2017the Pinehust was in Mumbai (ex. Bombay), India at 13:04 UTC. The next port it was in was Toamasina, Madagascar, which was on the 19th February 2017 at 11:04 UTC. The last port before Mombasa was at Port Louis, Mauritius on the 22nd April 2017 at 12:03 UTC. As the Port of Mauritius reveals, is that the vessels discharging coal. Therefore, the vessel had to be filled with maize before leaving for Mombasa. Carriers from Port Louis to Mombasa on route alternatives takes about 19 to 22 days. Therefore, the vessel couldn’t really have been so many days in between the tracking on Vessel Finder and suddenly in Mombasa. Especially, since it delivered coal to Mauritius.

So when the Government of Kenya says this about the vessel, you start to wonder if they even know how to google or even if other people knows how to search for maritime vessels. I don’t really do that, but found quickly out this information from sites that verifies this.

Therefore, the verified news from from Business Daily Africa:

However, Transport Principal Secretary Dr Paul Mwangi said the maize was stored in South Africa and the vessel took only five days after importers were given the nod to ship it into the country.“The white maize was imported from South Africa from Mexico last year when there was a shortage in that country. The excess amount was stored in Durban and sold to Kenya by Inter Africa Gains PTY of Johannesburg,” Dr Mwangi said at the Mombasa port. “The maize is therefore Mexican White maize which was transhipped into Kenya from South Africa. The ship takes only five days to sail from South Africa to Mombasa and that is why the maize arrived quickly,” he added” (Marete, 2017).

So I wonder if Dr. Mwangi knows the internet and the inner-works of this. As it doesn’t take much searching for me find all these information, if the PS Mwangi, think that wasn’t enough. The Mexican Embassy in Nairobi has today officially said: “MEXICO DENIES direct deal on maize with Kenya and has no declarations on any commercial transactions, embassy in Kenya says” (NationBreakingNews, 15.05.2017). So that the PS Mwangi are saying this seems to be a lie. There are certainly something the Jubilee isn’t telling, as the Duty Free was decided and quickly as the duty free maize and sugar. Came into effect just days ahead of the shipments coming to ports. Peace.

Reference:

Marete, Gitonga – ‘ Maize was shipped through South Africa, State now says’ (15.05.2017) link: http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/news/Maize-was-shipped-through-South-Africa-govt-says/539546-3927934-p0wqcl/

Communique of the Embassy of Mexico on the Sale of Non GMO White Maize to Kenya (15.05.2017)

Kenya: Press Statement on IEBC Case at the Court of Appeal (15.05.2017)

Note to Correspondents on South Sudan (15.05.2017)

NEW YORK, United States of America, May 15, 2017 – On the margins of the London Conference on Somalia, the Secretary-General discussed the situation in South Sudan with a number of international stakeholders. In this respect, on 10 and 11 May 2017, he met with the Chairperson of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn of Ethiopia, President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda and the Chairperson of the African Union (AU) Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamat.

In the course of these consultations, the Secretary-General reiterated the United Nations’ deep concern at the prevailing security and humanitarian situation in South Sudan, highlighting the untold suffering being inflicted on the civilian population. He underlined the imperative of renewed regional and international efforts to bring to an end the unfolding tragedy in that country, in particular through the immediate cessation of hostilities, unfettered humanitarian access to the millions of people in need of assistance, freedom of movement for the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) and the promotion of a credible and truly inclusive process involving all the opposition forces in line with the principles enshrined in the August 2015 Agreement for the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan.

The Secretary-General is encouraged by the commitment of all his interlocutors to further enhance their efforts towards ending the violence tearing South Sudan apart, bearing also in mind the need to prevent further negative repercussions on regional security and stability. The United Nations looks forward to working closely with the IGAD and the AU in the period ahead to identify practical steps that would help arrest the current downward trend towards greater fragmentation of South Sudan, escalating violence and deepening hardship and sustainably put the country back on the track of peace and reconciliation.

New York, 12 May 2017

Statement by the Director-General of the Communications Authority of Kenya (CA), Mr. Francis Wangusi, on the “Wannacryptor” Ransomware Cyber Attack (13.05.2017)

South Sudan: Uncertainty looms in the Republic, King Malong “boxed-in” and Opposition working together!

There are certainly not any clear indications of good news coming from Juba, the continued civil-war and warfare isn’t stopping, the death toll and the countless refugees are telling their own stories. As the state are grappling with the laws of staying in power, by any means. President Kiir, uses all the tricks in the book to stay and have loyal men in power. As there been rumors that King Malong had also plans to overpower him and therefore was sacked, but none by sources that is credible yet. But there are other, whom we can look at with interests. As the flow of information and uncertainty is there. This being the Opposition trying to make the government look foolish and evil, while the government tries to with their military operation annihilate them. Therefore, these latest reports proves there some sudden approaches, that should worry President Kiir. Just take a look!

What U.S. Intelligence report says about South Sudan:

Clashes between Juba and the armed opposition will continue, heightening ethnic tensions and exacerbating the humanitarian crisis and famine amid a declining economy. Both sides’ use of ethnic militias, hate speech, and the government’s crackdown against ethnic minorities raise the risk of additional mass atrocities. The government will probably continue to restrict political freedoms and civil liberties and obstruct humanitarian assistance” (Coates, 2017).

Opposition groups consolidating to topple Kiir:

A group of seven South Sudanese opposition movements said they had agreed to work closely against the current government in Juba. Signatories of the agreement included Henry Odwar, deputy chairman of the SPLM-IO faction led by Riek Machar, FDP party leader Gabriel Changson Chan, Thomas Tut Doap of UDRA, SPLM-FDs member Kosti Manibe, SSNMC leader Joseph Bakasoro, and NDM leader Lam Akol, as well as Thomas Cirillo Swaka, leader of the newly formed National Salvation Front (NAS). “There is great value in working together and, as a result, the opposition groups will actively work together with a view of seeking a united front on common strategic and operational issues, the group wrote in a joint statement dated 11 May” (Radio Tamazuj, 2017).

Legacy of King Malong:

Major General Khor Chuol Giet, the Commander of the SPLA-IO 5th Division, told the South Sudan News Agency that Awan is responsible for recruiting ethnic militias who mercilessly kill civilians with impunity. “Awan is the one who recruited Mathianganyor militia group. Anyone who knows the story of this bloody-thirsty ethnic militias should not celebrate his [Awan] removal.” Giet said” (…) “However, one senior government official who asked for anonymity because of fear of reprisal told the South Sudan News Agency in Juba that Awan is capable of causing chaos in Juba and even overthrowing Kiir. “I wonder why Kiir wanted him back after he left Juba. But I understand the fact that the President probably realized how powerful Awan is after he sacked him on TV,” the official said. The South Sudan News Agency has learned from a reliable source that Kiir will ask Awan to serve in his government, adding, “The post will definitely be a boxed one.”(SSNA, 2017).

Clashes in Fashoda State:

The number of civilians who died of thirst after being forcibly displaced from their villages in Panyikang County in Fashoda State due to clashes between government troops and rebel fighters in late April, has reached to at least 50, according to an opposition official” (…) “Speaking to Radio Tamazuj on Friday, Morris Orach, the Minister of Information in the rebel-controlled area in Fashoda, said the 50 dead bodies were found along the Fashoda-Tonga road” (Radio Tamazuj, 2017).

Ukraine arms trade:

It said the aircraft manifest indicated that it contained two L-39 jets and engines provided by Musket OU, a company based in Tallinn, that were overhauled, and that the flight was operated by the Ukranian Defence ministry. “Subsequently, the government of Ukraine confirmed to the Panel that the two jets were listed as being operated by the Ugandan military and that the end user certificates indicated that the aircraft were to be used only for advanced piloting training,” the report reads. However, PoE disclosed it was investigating if the aircraft were transported to South Sudan following reports that there was a new military plane with obscured marking, parked at the Juba International Airport” (Oduha, 2017).

These initial signs are not of strengthening the republic, as the power is still all in the hands of President Salva Kiir Mayardit, who have again used his hands and changed leadership roles to be in-charge and not question of his authority. While this is happening, all of the famous rebels and rebel groups have decided to gather together in one unit. To all consolidate and work to topple President Kiir. Therefore, the insecure structure of opposition is now on a clear path. In the midst of military operations and the skirmishes. This is all creating the famine, the destruction of institutions, if so also stopping the build-up of government and local government operations. As the armed battles and military operations are the most important and imminent importance.

There is no indication of peace and rebuilding the state, as the arising power-structures are still bound by two warlords, this being the President and Dr. Riek Machar, who has two armies and soldiers battling in different states, now with deflectors and other smaller rebel-groups standing together with the SPLM/A-IO fighting the SPLM/A. This is not the look, the President, nor the hierarchy in Juba administration wants to see. We can only think of the consequences, as the President will continue to buy arms and use connections to be able to fight this, though Ukrainian or Ugandan counterparts, who deliver gladly for profit bullets, planes and rifles to the SPLM/A.

We can just wonder and hope when this will end, as so many innocent civilians has fled their villages and patches of lands, for a bit of hope in refugee camps in Uganda, DRC, Sudan and Ethiopia. This is not the reactions anyone want to see, but they don’t want to stay home, when their fields and patches becomes battlefields between armies. As well, as these battles also comes to the refugee camps, where even the killings appear. There is only uncertainty, and lack of will to generate peace, because two men and their allies are more keen power, than trying to forge peace. Peace.

Reference:

Coates, Daniel R. – ‘Statement for the Record Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community – Senate Select Committee on Intelligence’ (11.05.2017) – Director of National Intelligence, United States

Oduha, Joseph – ‘Ukraine on the spot over arms sale to South Sudan’ (14.03.2017) link:http://www.africareview.com/news/Ukraine-on-the-spot-over-arms-sale-to-South-Sudan/979180-3926538-xjvisf/index.html

Radio Tamazuj – ‘South Sudan opposition groups agree to work together against Kiir’s government’ (14.03.2017) link: https://radiotamazuj.org/en/news/article/south-sudan-opposition-group-agree-to-work-together-against-kiir-s-government

Radio Tamazuj – ‘Thirst death toll rises to 50 in Fashoda State, official says’ (14.05.2017) link: https://radiotamazuj.org/en/news/article/thirst-death-toll-rises-to-50-in-fashoda-state-official-says

South Sudan News Agency – ‘Rebel General blasts ousted army chief over recruitment of “blood-thirsty ethnic militias”’ (13.04.2017) link:http://www.southsudannewsagency.com/index.php/2017/05/13/rebel-general-blasts-ousted-army-chief-recruitment-blood-thirsty-ethnic-militias/

Burundi: President Nkurunziza plans to consolidate all power, by all means now!

That earlier this week that President Pierre Nkurunziza of Burundi, that made a decree where he started that the Constitution will be reviewed, in a way to make sure he can continue to stay in power. The CNDD-FDD has no plans of leaving any successor. As the reports of the repression and the centralized control of the state, is all in the hands of the President.

The Inter-Burundian Inclusive Dialogue, which former Tanzanian President Benjamin Mpaka is leading, has been told how to travel and who to contact. There many parties and many CSO/NGOs who hasn’t participated. Therefore, the dialogue has been flawed and made sure to fit the paradigm of Nkurunziza and his allies. Not to try to understand the oppression and the harassment of the opposition. Who either flees, are assassinated or kidnapped. There are so many Ex-FAB and former leaders of opposition parties who has been killed since 2015. This is clear motivation to consolidate power!

There is also revealed this week that a memo from 24th January 2017, that all exports from Burundi are taken extra funds directly to Nkurunziza. This being done that the exporters are paying 2600 BIF to the Burundian Central Bank, while the 1000 BIF goes directly to Nkurunziza and the rest goes to the Exporters after the currency are converted. So the exporters get 1600 BIF when converting, while the rest of the balance enters the pockets of Nkurunziza. Which, is such a wonderful way of doing transactions. Certainly, the foreign companies must feel they entertaining their totalitarian master for the resources and minerals, by doing this!

The Same government have had questions when the European Union didn’t want to pay the salaries of AMISOM brigades are paying their salaries and transferred funds through CECAD (COOPERATIVE D’EPARGNE ET DE CREDIT POUR L’AUTO-DEVELOPPEMENT). This as the FNDB (La Force de Défense Nationale du Burundi) or the National Defense Force of Burundi are paying their salaries through CECAD, which doesn’t making sense, other than it can be another scheme to sting the monies away from the soldiers who serve in Somalia on behalf of the FNDB and the CNDD-FDD. Therefore, the Burundian government clearly doesn’t care how they are misusing funds.

Just as this dossier proves the CECAD and AMISOM connection:

This triple “dossier NDONDEZA” has an unusual characteristic. While all the previous cases seem to be linked to the crackdown on the protests against the third term in office of President Pierre Nkurunziza or have not been clarified in their motives, this one is related to a mafia system and economic interests. Alexis NGABONZIZA used to manage a sort of “Banque Lambert“[2] and lent money to Burundian soldiers that want to pay bribes so as to be added on lists of participants in peacekeeping missions in Somalia and the Central African Republic (AMISOM and MINUSCA). The role of Alexis NGABONZIZA was even more important. Not only did he lend to the soldiers but he also would also transfer that money to the high ranked military authorities involved in this mafia through their “principal commissioner” and could make sure his clients were on the lists of selected candidates. Alexis NGABONZIZA disappeared when he had an appointment with Lea NZEYIMANA, “the commissioner”, at Army Headquarters. He disappeared at the same time as his sibling Ferdinand HAVYARIMANA who had accompanied him. Corporal-chef Jean NDAYIZEYE, an agent of the Presidential Guard BSPI[3], and a friend of Mr. Alexis NGABONZIZA, had paid a bribe to return to Somalia. He also disappeared while responding to an appointment with Léa NZEYIMANA at the Army Headquarters” (Ndondeza, 2017).

These are just three common outcomes and perspectives on the volatile crisis in Burundi, where they are lacking petrol and even foreign exchange, this is all because of the sanctioned importers of petrol is only two now. Which also, makes the arrangement from the state to cronies, instead of serving the public. But most of the business is to supply the President and his men with funds. If that is questioned, than they silence them.

Therefore, at this moment, the idea that the inclusive dialogue is worth anything in Burundi, is a pipe-dream, as even the ones working in the system can suddenly vanish or disappear. Just like the ones working for the scheme inside the CECAD and the salary system of the Army. This here is just another evidence of the Nkurunziza government who doesn’t care about governance or about their legitimacy. As they are reviewing the Constitution and the handpicked appointments are clearly working on the notion of giving way to the President. Just like Constitutional Court did when he did get the possibility to run for a third time. Now he is preparing a fourth term and at the same consolidating more power. Not trying to dialogue, as Mpaka and the EAC has seriously just looked away from all the transgressions and violations done in Burundi.

There isn’t any reports or revelations that proves that he cares about democracy or about justice. The justice is made for his will and his administration. This government clearly doesn’t care about 299 in the 2005 Constitution, “No procedure or revision may be retained if it infringes of the national unity, the cohesion of the Burundian People, the secularity of the State, the reconciliation, the democracy or integrity of the territory of the Republic”. These words and law apparently doesn’t mean anything to Nkurunziza, who could without any question appoint a commission to review the constitution.

With the frauds, the schemes, the kidnapping, the killings and the lacking interference in the Inter-Burundian dialogue, the state of affairs is dire and the world is looking away. They are giving faith in the EAC who is not pushing or trying to intervene. They are letting Benjamin Mpaka being told how to act and who to talk to. They are not giving him the tools or the will to pursuit an honest negotiations. As Nkrurunziza is clearly not interested in giving way or stepping down. President Nkurunziza will use his power, his army and his control to silence, or even make the opposition stop. Stop them by all means, the courts, the intimidation or even assassinate them.

The United Nations, their accords and the peacekeeping missions is flawed, powerless as Burundian authorities are using all means at their disposal to stay in power. Therefore, the world should listen to this: “Jérèmie Ngendakumana, spokesperson for the National Council for the Respect of Arusha Agreement (CNARED) says it is not the time the constitution has been amended. “Burundians are not calm and not ready for the amendment. They are gripped by fear following the murders observed on a daily basis, kidnapping cases, forced disappearances, arbitrary arrests,” says Ngendakumana” (…) “The former chairman of the ruling party says the amendment of the constitution aims at overriding the Arusha peace agreement. “Pierre Nkurunziza was elected for his first presidential term in 2005 thanks to the Arusha Agreement. Then, he wants to review the constitution with the main objective of remaining in the power,” he says” (…) “Tatien Sibomana, an opposition politician, says the CNDI report does not require action from Burundians but rather from members of the CNDD-FDD, to override the Arusha agreement. He says the opinions expressed in the CNDI report are nothing new. “All the opinions expressed were prepared by the ruling party in 2013, when the draft constitution law failed to be adopted in the National Assembly,” he says” (Uwimana, 2017).

This voices should be heard and taken notice of, these are the ones suffering and seeing the aggressive and totalitarian regime under President Nkurunziza. They see, what other can also see. That Nkurunziza are only trying to forge his power and find ways of getting rid of the ones who doesn’t want him there. Therefore, the dialogue and commission, together with all schemes is to facilitate and make the funds to stay in power. Not to make the Burundian republic developed. Peace.

Reference:

Ndondeza – ‘Enforced disappearance of Alexis NGABONZIZA, Ferdinand HAVYARIMANA and Corporal-Chef Jean NDAYIZEYE’ (03.03.2017) link:http://ndondeza.org/statement-focode-0032017-march-3rd-2017/

Uwimana, Diane – ‘‘No term limit, amend constitution,’ says commission for national dialogue’ (13.05.2017) link:http://www.iwacu-burundi.org/englishnews/no-term-limit-amend-constitution-says-commission-for-national-dialogue/

RDC: “Crimes crapuleux et Violation constante des libertes et droits fondamentaux en RDC par le president Joseph Kabila” (13.05.2017)

Bukedea district: NRM Government neglect to another level, they are stealing from their starving citizens!

Once a government is committed to the principle of silencing the voice of opposition, it has only one way to go, and that is down the path of increasingly repressive measures, until it becomes a source of terror to all its citizens and creates a country where everyone lives in fear.”Harry Truman (Special Message to the Congress on the Internal Security of the United States, August 8, 1950).

Certainly, the National Resistance Movement and their government doesn’t seem to care how they look. None of their pledges or even written letters to the Local Government matters. Not even in the midst of famine and starvation. You would think that a government and their agencies had sense of keeping their promises to the ones who needs the most basic in life – as their plates are empty after droughts and bad governance. Therefore, the NRM has no sense, when the Bukedea district are reacting that their promised food relief is less; than promised from the Office of the Prime Minister (OPM) Dr. Ruhakana Ruganda and his department. Certainly, this is disrespecting the people and the citizens of Bukedea. Take a look!

Mike Okwii, the district secretary for health and social services wants the matter investigated expeditiously before they can distribute what they have received. “According to the letter signed by the commissioner of disaster and preparedness, Bukedea was supposed to get 800 bags of posho and 400 bags of beans. But the district has received only 400 bags of posho and 50 bags of beans, which is shocking. So for us at the district leadership, we have decided not to distribute this food. Not until when OPM delivers all the food items”, he said. Okwii confirmed that as of now, nobody has given them any response as to why the Office of the Prime Minister delivered consignments that have fewer supplies that what was declared. “Nobody has given us the right answer why they delivered less food compared to what is on the delivery note. The minister for Teso Affairs is going to follow the matter because you can imagine the minister came to Bukedea to allocate food to the sub-counties. Little did she know that she allocated food which is not even there”, he added (URN, 2017).

The reason for the disrespect is staggering as the reports of termites and insects to survive, proves the lacking governance and upkeep of institutions. Also, the agricultural sector has been left behind, as the irrigation and thinking of how use water in farming. Certainly, the food relief is a way of making sure the people eat while they wait for next season and possible time to start farming again. These in regions that has been hard hit and the government had been warned by FAO and FEWSNET, so these reports should have forewarned them.

Food is required besides the medication. If someone is sick, the first treatment is food; medicine works well on a well fed body,” said Dr. Chebitai” (New Vision, 2017). Therefore, with the knowledge that the state still has the capacity to not deliver what so needed and necessary is not only a theft, but taken food of the plates of those who starve. That the NRM has the audacity to this proves how they can easily neglect their citizens. Even taking away their first treatment, that is the level of disappointment, the ruling regime can to do their own. Peace.

Reference:

New Vision – ‘Parliament staff donate food items to Teso’ (07.05.2017) link:http://www.newvision.co.ug/new_vision/news/1453187/parliament-staff-donate-food-items-teso