South Sudan: National Communication Authority – “Public Notice – Suspension of vivacell Operations” (20.03.2018)

Brexit: PM Theresa May letter to EU President Donald Tusk (19.03.2018)

Opinion: I thought South Sudan would be broke much sooner!

It isn’t strange that the Republic of South Sudan has run out of money before? That this was only about time before this could happen. Before all the Reserves of South Sudanese Pound had left the Central Bank in Juba. Why is that natural? Maybe because of the constant civil war, the famine that is arising, the lack of produce and the lack of institutions. It is all effecting the economy, while the NGOs and Multi-Nationals are doing what they can to cover the basics, while the state is using the taxed funds and earnings of the crude-oil to secure ammunition and weapons from shady sources. This is happening while the United States has issued sanctions and President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni of Uganda has promised weapons. Therefore the recent reports kinda fit a narrative, where the reasons for the bankrupt state is very evident. But I will come into that after the reports are mentioned.

First the RSS broke:

President Kiir says the value of the pound also keeps on deteriorating and these facts have made South Sudan a “laughing stock” in the world. He said the leaders of the country have to think of ways to increase production so as to retain the currency’s value. “That [attempted] forceful taking of power has brought us now to this stage where we have no money in our bank, we have nothing and so we have become a laughing stock worldwide,” he said during the swearing-in ceremony of the new Minister of Finance, Salvatore Garang Mabiordit” (Eye Radio – ‘Gov’t is broke – Kiir’ 14.03.2018).

Secondly The Sentry reported: “One key document, part of a collection of material provided to The Sentry by an anonymous source, appears to be an internal log kept by South Sudan’s Ministry of Petroleum and Mining detailing security-related payments made by Nilepet. The document titled, “Security Expenses Summary from Nilepet as from March 2014 to Date” (“the Summary”) lists a total of 84 transactions spanning a 15-month period beginning in March 2014 and ending in June 2015. In total, the document lists over $80 million in payments to politicians, military officials, government agencies, and private companies, many of which include captions that describe activities directly linked to the government’s war effort. Other documents reviewed by The Sentry include copies of correspondence that describe the petroleum ministry’s provision of fuel and other supplies to Padang Dinka militia groups” (The Sentry – ‘Fueling Atrocities – Oil and War in South Sudan’ March 2018).

And the Radio Tamazuj reported: “South Sudan’s government has awarded a major contract worth over $130 million to a private company to support military logistics operations, according to a document seen by Radio Tamazuj. The document bearing the signature of the country’s first vice president, Taban Deng Gai, said Tonga Investments Ltd has been given firm offers from the ministry of defense to supply food stuffs, assorted army uniforms, boots, vehicles and fuel to the army worth $134,703, 606.7. The document dated 7 March indicated that the Tonga Investments Ltd had identified Cyproil Trading Ltd based in Uganda as one of the willing and potential financiers with payments expected to be made by lifting of crude oil” (Radio Tamazuj – ‘Govt awards a major military supply contract worth over $130 million’ 12.03.2018).

So as seen there are clearly money to be spent, but they are not spent on salaries for teachers, for building roads, not even keep the central administration. But it is either squandered away on high-ranking politicians, which is the cronies and part of the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) or the SPLM/A-IG and SPLM/A-IO – Deng fraction. Since the state is initially run by them and by the decrees of the President. The Parliament isn’t really functioning, therefore, the last word always falls of the President Salva Kiir Mayardit, who do whatever he please and uses whatever tactic he sees fit. If it is continuing issuing skirmishes or fixing deals with UPDF. Who knows how the army get all their gear, but clearly the SPLA has connections.

The government is able to spend the money on guns, ammo and other luxurious things. It is known that the South Sudanese elite owns posh homes in Nairobi. We can just guess where else they have homes and has stash funds from the looting of the state. Not like the state needs the funds to build stuff and take care of the state. There are dozens of Multi-National Organizations who are ready and who also pays taxes to be there. There are also smaller NGOs that offers support for the basic parts of government structure. So not like the TGoNU needs to consider that. They have it already, but built on donor funding and also run on donor funding. Therefore, very easy for the war-lords, the tribal chiefs and the cronies of Kiir to eat the cash of the state.

I am not surprised at all, I just thought it would happen quicker or by some other means. That it would be crack with arrangements of crude-oil pipeline and the rates paid to Khartoum. If not the Northern Corridor Project within the East African Community. Or even the start of paying the project funds for the new capital Ramciel. Even if the state even would pay some respects to the importance of New Site. But I doubt that.

While the insurgence, while the opposition have made alliances and actually made themselves deals within, as the SPLA/M-IG are trying to settle with SPLA/M-IO and the South Sudan Opposition Alliance (SSOA) comes into effect. As the High-Level Revitalization Forum of the Intergovernmental Authority (IGAD) hasn’t bear any fruits. Since the ARCISS is officially dead, even if the International Community is trying to bring it back from its grave. While the War-lords continue.

The path already taken is clearly not the way of it, the elites around Kiir is eating. The men and clan’s men around having a field day, emptying the state, while the international community footing the bills for the rest. He is able to get guns, get equipment and get ammunition to continue this civil-war. At this point, he will not give in, unless he has secured power. He has fought for so long, that he will not give-way to anyone. The same with Dr. Riek Machar. He will neither step-down and give way. The people leaving SPLA/M-IO to different groups within SSOA should be sign enough too.

While the state is openly an open bazaar for Kiir to eat. Nothing is left untouched and not taken. If there is a cookie, if there is a piece of sugar and even just feeling of breadcrumbs. It going to be taken. Nothing is left behind. Because every penny is needed in the battle for supremacy. I am just waiting for the day he calls President Museveni and he sends a brigade or two. If the oil-money and funds will be sent his way. Peace.

Container Freight Stations Associations of Kenya – “Re: Movement of Nominated Containers to CFS’s” (02.03.2018)

South Africa: Section 232 Investigation by the United States of America on Steel and Aluminium Products (12.03.2018)

South Africa’s exports to the US on steel amounted to US$950 million in 2017 and accounted for 1.4% of U.S.’s global imports.

PRETORIA, South Africa, March 12, 2018 – The South African Government has noted the announcement of the President of the United States of America, Donald Trump on 8 March 2018 that he has signed proclamations to impose a 10 percent ad valorem tariff on aluminnium articles and a 25 percent ad valorem tariff on steel articles.

It was further announced that the United States (US) will consider specific requests from affected domestic parties, to exclude from any adopted import restrictions those steel articles for which the Secretary of Commerce determines there is a lack of sufficient US production capacity of comparable products, or to exclude steel articles from such restrictions for specific national security-based considerations.

The proclamations make a provision for any country with which the US has a security relationship to discuss with the US alternative ways to address the threatened impairment of the national security caused by imports from that country. Should the US and that country arrive at a satisfactory alternative means to address the threat to the national security, the US President may remove or modify the restriction on steel articles imports from that country and, if necessary, make any corresponding adjustments to the tariff as it applies to other countries as the national security interests require.

In relation to aluminium, the products to be affected are defined in the Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) as: (a) unwrought aluminum (HTS 7601); (b) aluminum bars, rods, and profiles (HTS 7604); (c) aluminum wire (HTS 7605); (d) aluminum plate, sheet, strip, and foil (flat rolled products) (HTS 7606 and 7607); (e) aluminum tubes and pipes and tube and pipe fitting (HTS 7608 and 7609); and (f) aluminum castings and forgings (HTS 7616.99.51.60 and 7616.99.51.70), including any subsequent revisions to these HTS classifications.

The products affected in relation to steel are defined at the Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) 6-digit level as: 7206.10 through 7216.50, 7216.99 through 7301.10, 7302.10, 7302.40 through 7302.90, and 7304.10 through 7306.90, including any subsequent revisions to these HTS classifications.

In addition, the Secretary of Commerce is expected to publish the Federal Register on the appeal process for US buyers to apply for exclusion within 10 days. The tariffs will be implemented on 23 March 2018, if no alternative arrangement is agreed to with individual countries.

South Africa is studying the proclamations and its implications for the domestic industry in South Africa. South Africa’s exports to the US on steel amounted to US$950 million in 2017 and accounted for 1.4% of U.S.’s global imports. In the case of aluminium, the SA exports were US$375 million in 2017, accounting for 1.6% of US imports from all global suppliers. It is clear that South Africa’s exports do not impose a threat to US industry and jobs. The SA exports are in some cases used as inputs into further processes in the US manufacturing sector thus in fact contributing to US jobs and production.

The Department of Trade and Industry (the dti) is fully engaged with the matter and continues to have discussions with the US on this issue. A formal submission will also be made to the US as is provided for in the proclamations.

MTN Uganda – “Announcement: New Guidelines on Selling MTN Sim Cards” (08.03.2018)

Brexit: DEXEU Exit Analysis from January 2018 shows tragic results for the UK if they leave!

The secretive Department for Exiting the European Union (DEXEU) and Cabinet Secretary David Davis has hold a secret since January 2018, as of today the folders to ‘EU Exit Analysis Cross Whitehold Briefing’ was released online. Surely, the Conservatives and DUP must take people’s for fools, thinking these results would fly under radar and not be scrutinized. I will take certain ones from this. Just to prove how much hurt the public could get by leaving the EU. I am glad I am not British, while reading this one, but not many would have looked there if it were not for Member of Parliament, who took page by page and leaked them too.

Depending on what sort of a trade arrangement the United Kingdom gets with their partners, if it’s a EEA deal, Florence Type Arrangement and WTO Agreement with the EU. No matter what, the fall and the costs will be massive. The industries of chemicals, food and drink, clothes, manufacturing, cars and retail will be hit by the time of the exit. Certainly, like chemical industry and their percentages of loss could be between 16% and 2%. The biggest loss would be in the WTO deal, the non-deal with EU. Food and Drinks industry could lose between 10% and 2 %. Also depending on which deal. Both of these shows the massive backlash it has and how the cuts will be. Since the industries will both lose big profits and margins, which they cannot uphold by the status quo arrangements!

Those results are striking and proving how little benefit it is to leave and create a tariff border with the EU. They are really pulling efforts to make things more expensive and harder, just the tariffs alone will hurt the exports and the imports to the UK. Since the cost will be put on the consumer, and the EU trading partners might choose other cheaper produce from elsewhere. Since the tariffs on UK cheese is too high and the Swiss one cost less. The estimated tariffs on agriculture in EEA deal is zero, but the FTA is 26.1% and WTO is 26.1% and that is massive rise of prices. On Beverages, Tobacco and Food, the EEA is Zero, while the FTA is 12.7% and WTO is 12.7%. Both of these are showing the high risking prices and effects it could have on the market.

IF you believed the Tories and the campaigners that it wouldn’t be costly to move away and that the UK would earn on the leaving. You we’re duped, you were fooled and the hatred ate you. It will cost and with time it has been evident, as even the industry and the Financial Business Community is planning to flee. That will cost even more, as more jobs are fleeing to Union Financial Districts, to be sure they can trade services without having a hectic international tariffs and waivers to get it through! That is what will happen when the EU and UK departs from each other.

The new regulatory environment plus the taxations of the services after leaving will be hectic. The added pressure and the lack of movement of staff, can also hinder the will of doing business in the UK. They are really biting the hands that feeds itself. The wisdom hasn’t sunk in yet, but the numbers are bad, it will not be a smooth ride and the cost will all be put on the British and their consumers. It will not be walk in the park; it will be a steep mountain of hurt. Peace.

Opinion: Now Kenya is broke, you go figure!

This is not shocking or making people awe, as the Minister of Finance Henry Rotich said the state has run out of the money. The same state that has made new positions in the cabinet, the same state has built the Standard Gauge Railway, the same state that has lost NYS Funds, lost Funds from State Owned Enterprises and so on. The same state that made the President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto vastly rich, Ritchie Rich Rich, or even Iron Man aka Tony Stark wealthy.

Kenyatta’s own companies with new expensive and big projects even building a new township in Nairobi, while Ruto continues to expand his estates, his businesses too. Both of them are wealthy and getting richer by the minute. While the state is getting more debt, getting more broke and they cannot answer for the usage of money. How convenient that the ones leading the government is having more money, while the state reserves are empty?

This same government has added debt, used on Eurobond and unleashing a second. They are really using the system, finding ways of printing money without thinking of the consequences. It is weird that a government who recently took up a new debt of 200 billion still has a deficit of 279 billion, which means the shortfall of cash without Eurobond 2.0; the state would miss about 479 billion. All of this is nightmare, but a nightmare created by the gentlemen mentioned. They knew all of this, they overspent and misused funds during the 2017 campaigns, they expanded their businesses and they spoilt the system. They we’re out of pocket, but continue to blead the economy even so.

Certainly, while the President is building his own town on someone else’s money, and Ruto is getting bigger and grander estates. While the state is suffering, someone should connect the dots, the Kenya government isn’t broke, but it is juicing up ventures on the outside of the government services. That is why the sudden deficit and why the state suddenly ran out of money. It isn’t rocket-science to put two and two together. It is only the naïve who thinks otherwise.

While that is happening, more part of the state is drained by illegal tenders, misuse of funds in the fashion of the National Hospital Insurance Fund (NHIF), as the Public Protectorate has looked into their wastage of public funds into companies like UAP Life Assurance Ltd, Britiam Life Assurance Company and Pioneer Assurance Ltd. All of them got the basis of 800 million shillings in their tenders, the wastage on these schemes are enormous. Seemingly, no place in the state of affairs, where money isn’t gone, embezzled or sort of fraud away from the possible spending on supposed government services. This bidding was done without following procedure and neither tenders public by either the accounting officers or the CEO of NHIF who certainly found it possible to spend it this way.

When you know, that is just one of the ministries, one of the public funds and one of the state service providers, you can imagine if they are doing similar acts in other places. Like the scandals surrounding NYS, where corporations and businesses never seen before and again, got tenders with ownership within the ones who allocated the funds. It is seemingly something like this again. The Jubilee cannot help themselves; they are eating of the public plate.

That is why the state has a deficit, that is why the government broke, Kenyatta and Ruto is busy eating, while the public is footing their bills. They are all laughing and giggling, while the other parts are scrapping whatever they have to pay for the services that state is supposed to provide. Peace.

Kenya: W.E.C. Lines Internal Memo – “Re: SGR” (03.03.2018)

RDC: Communique de Presse (07.03.2018)