Mbabazi is all of a sudden in the wind!

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in the wind: to disappear, unable to be found” (Urban Dictionary)

He has been the shadow and the loyal subject under the National Resistance Movement and as one of the men has followed President Museveni for decades, until his demise and his lost position of both Secretary General of the NRM-O and the Prime Minister post. Before that he had been a minister and also a long-serving member of the Movement.

Amama Mbabazi went from being the next in line to being an outcast. He tried to become the flag-bearer and presidential candidate in the Movement, but they wouldn’t relieve or give way for anyone else then three decades running president. So he was left out of the party, even as his membership still was there. Still, with that the The Democratic Alliance (TDA) allowed him and Gilbert Bukenya to stand as Presidential Candidates. Mbabazi achieved it with fielding the opposition parties and get Besigye to abandon the Opposition alliance. Therefore there was to major opposition candidates against Museveni. Both of them former allies and close knit in the Movement.

Besigye was the offensive and strong candidate, the man who gained the people and got the crowds that showed his popularity. Mbabazi started strong, but didn’t have the same amounts, but Besigye had been running many times before against Museveni, Mbabazi was a first time against his former boss. Mbabazi got to taste tear-gas, lose his allies, get supporters detained and even getting harassed by the police force for holding preliminary rallies. The reality of the code of conduct that the Movement has had for decades was something now the Mbabazi – Go Forward got to taste.

The sour and bitter taste of getting on the side-line of the Movement, getting their treatment and their recognition, the only attempt of some peaceful transition and smear of democratic behaviour was letting the Election Petition from the Amama Mbabazi legal team getting accepted even as it entered the Constitutional Court close to 30 minutes over the deadline. The rest was well rigged and malnourished to fix Museveni another term. Keep up, business as usual.

Mbabazi has after the election had meetings with the President, with many suggestions and wondering how come. I don’t really pound on that, as he was even pragmatic at the Presidential Debates of still being member of the Movement, while still running as an own flag-bearer in the TDA/Go-Forward outfit. Therefore I had giant issues that he run as an opposition, but still was a member of the ruling party. That doesn’t make sense and doesn’t seem reasonable.

So the NRM member was running on Opposition ticket. Seems foolish right that Norbert Mao and others accepted that request and dignified his approach? But, when darkness has been running for so long, a leaf of hope can resurrect a forest? Well, Amama Mbabazi didn’t run circles around Museveni. He just tangoed and made sure to make a good public figure.

His approach was more use cool designs, try to be a populist politician and hope he took some of the crowds of long-serving opposition. He really didn’t reinvent much or even sell his story strong, because who remember what sort of campaign the Go Gorward Group and allies did run on? I do not remember a single thing of what he did really stand for or what was his grand mission?

 

Mbabazi went underground or silent, nearly a visible character or public figure, as he wants a relief of public dedication behind him. Still, the rumoured visit or meetings with Museveni, proves that Mbabazi really never left, but was more of staged paradigm. You can wonder if he will have the same fate as Bukenya, suddenly be offered a senior position inside the NRM-O?

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So that he can be compensated and silenced, not telling stories of old or even scorns the world with the realities of the inner-workings of the Movement. Since he is still paid by the Movement, he will not talk or disobey the President. Even if Museveni did scalp his ambition, and his dream of achieving, the executive position of Uganda. Certainly, the TDA was not built or had the machinery to conquer the movement-based Electoral Commission, neither was the quickly built organization around the Go Forward. Mbabazi wasn’t prepared with party apparatus to counter the Movement. The FDC had 10 years of building a party, Go Forward was months old and not allowed to hold preliminary meetings.

Mbabazi’s attempt was flawed, but dire as the proof of the invalid execution of NRM-O and Museveni who doesn’t care, because he is the only man with a vision. Mbabazi didn’t have his vision, since Mbabazi is Mbabazi and not Museveni. That is simplistic, but still a fact.

Mbabazi as long as he is a NRM-O member, an insider who is partly outcast, because of his wish of higher public office and that he wanted to take his masters place. President Museveni would not accept to lose his place and be succeeded. Succession has never been in the works of the NRM-O or the ruling regime, so that Amama Mbabazi thought he would exchange the current leader was failing from the beginning. The reason behind why Besigye had to start on his own on the outside of the Movement; the same Mbabazi was doing.

So what is up next is in the vision of Mbabazi and if he want to risk his lavish house, as he lost one of his cars as his place in parliament went away after the election. What else of Parliamentary perks he has lost is certainly a few. Other investments or ownership is only known by him and the movement, as Mbabazi wasn’t the most frugal MP. Mbabazi was known for his corrupt and grafting ability while being in power. So his wealth is built on agreements and his close-knitted community while being inside the Movement. Therefore he must know a lot that Museveni doesn’t want out. Therefore as long he is silent, he doesn’t have to fear, but if he would talk or release the intelligence, even if he would drop knowledge on certain older scandals, he could damage the Movement more.

Still, with his membership and dialogue with Museveni. Show’s that Mbabazi even though not official part of the leadership anymore in the ruling regime. Isn’t totally out of the picture or out of the elite, he is just silent relief.

So what do you think Mbabazi is up to and scheming? Is he done as political figure or will he brought into the NRM-O again? Peace.

Kenya: ODM statement on the disruption of the Turkana Rally (17.02.2017)

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ODM party condemns in the strongest terms the actions of the hired youth who disrupted an ODM peaceful rally in Turkana this afternoon. Kenya is a democracy and all Kenyans have the right to assemble and rally.

Kenyans are struggling with an ever rising national debt, unprecedented levels of corruption, a broken national security system and an electoral infrastructure that exposes us to divisions, hence the actions of the hired youth shows that the Jubilee government is not interested in the welfare of Kenyans.

ODM will and shall continue advocating for the rights of Kenyans in the different platforms and continue to address issues of Kenyans.

Sen (Dr) Agnes Zani
SG, ODM

Video of Prequel to the Turkana Rally:

South Africa National Treasury statement on Competition Commission finding on the Banks (16.02.2017)

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Government of Uganda Position on Burundian Refugees (17.02.2017)

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Senior United Nations Human Rights Official Condemns Deplorable Rights Situation in South Sudan, Calls for Perpetrators to be Held to Account (17.02.2017)

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During his visit, Gilmour also travelled to Malakal, where he received further information concerning the suffering of the civilian population in the area.

GENEVA, Switzerland, February 17, 2017 – At the end of a four-day visit to South Sudan, the United Nations Assistant Secretary-General for human rights, Andrew Gilmour, called for those committing  atrocity crimes in the country to be held accountable.

“This is a war that has been waged against the men, women and children of South Sudan,” he said. “And the only way of ending this onslaught will be when the perpetrators face consequences for what they are doing.”

Gilmour held meetings in Juba with the Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, the Minister of Information, the Chief of General Staff of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army, the Director General of the National Security Service, representatives of the South Sudan Human Rights Commission, local authorities, religious leaders, United Nations and humanitarian partners, as well as non-governmental organizations, victims and civil society actors.

During his visit, Gilmour also travelled to Malakal, where he received further information concerning the suffering of the civilian population in the area.

“Although this is the fourth time I’ve been in South Sudan since 2011, I wasn’t prepared for the shocking devastation I witnessed in Malakal and even more by the clear pattern of systematic human rights violations and abuses suffered by the population,” Gilmour said.

He was informed of the appalling risks that women, now living under UN protection, are forced to take in order to be able to earn even the most meagre livelihood. When leaving the United Nations Mission in South Sudan protection of civilians site, they have been frequently subjected to rape by militias and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army on their route to the market in Malakal town. Rape and gang rape is present in the testimonies of numerous women in the area, though this was categorically denied by the Sudan People’s Liberation Army  Division Commander with whom Gilmour spoke.

“It is utterly abhorrent that women in this area have to choose between getting raped or getting a livelihood,” Gilmour said, “But this seems the brutal reality of what South Sudan has become.”
In March 2016, the United Nations human rights office issued a detailed report which documents the horrendous patterns of sexual violence in the country.  The report can be read here.
In his meetings with the authorities in Juba, Gilmour raised concerns about the unspeakable human rights situation throughout the territory. He urged the authorities to combat the worrying rise of hate speech and to do more to protect human rights defenders.

In his meeting with the Chief of General Staff of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army, General Paul Malong, Gilmour emphasized the severe restrictions on access that the United Nations Mission in South Sudan faces when trying to protect civilians, provide humanitarian assistance and monitor the human rights situation in the country.

He stressed his concern that elements of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army had engaged in what could well amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity. On the other hand he welcomed the recent start of United Nations human rights training for the Sudan People’s Liberation Army and the appointment of its focal points on conflict related sexual violence.

“Of course we know that until there’s peace in South Sudan, human rights will continue to be trampled,” the Assistant Secretary-General said. “But even during war, one can fight without routinely committing such needless acts of cruelty. And this is what we are calling on all parties – government and opposition – to do.”

Gilmour urged the Director General of the National Security Service to put an end to the practice of arbitrary and prolonged detention without charge, bring detainee before the courts, and allow them access to their lawyers and family.

He underlined to the Government authorities the absolute need to avoid reprisals and threats against human rights defenders who have cooperated with the United Nations. In this connection, he drew attention to a specific incident last September in which human rights defenders were threatened following the visit of the United Nations Security Council.

Bank of Uganda: Change in Signature on Uganda Shilling Banknotes (17.02.2017)

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Footage: Evan Mawarire update from Courts earlier today (17.02.2017)

“Update from the courts earlier today. Matter has been postponed to March 16 because the state was not ready. Our resolve remains steady in uniting the citizens of Zimbabwe as we prepare for the coming season of change. #ThisFlag” (Evan Mawarire, 17.02.2017)

U.S. House Representatives wants to block the January Arms trade sold to the Kenyan Government!

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“The arms trade – an intricate web of networks between the formal and shadow worlds, between government, commerce and criminality – often makes us poorer, not richer, less not more safe, and governed not in our own interests but for the benefit of a small, self-serving elite, seemingly above the law, protected by the secrecy of national security and accountable to no one.”

Andrew Feinstein

As of today there two United States Representatives from the Republican Party Ted Budd of North Carolina and Duncan Duane Hunter from California that for their own reasons to stop sales of U.S. arms to Kenya, this they have forwarded a joint resolution. This was first from Ted Budd, but Duncan Hunter became his co-sponsor of the bill. Of today it has been transmitted to the Committee at the House Foreign Affairs that will work on it, before initial voting.

“That the issuance of a letter of offer with respect to any of the following proposed sales to the Government of Kenya (described in the certification Transmittal No. 16–79, sent to the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the chairman of the Committee on Foreign Relations of the Senate pursuant to section 36(b)(1) of the Arms Export Control Act (22 U.S.C. 2776(b)(1))) on January 19, 2017, is hereby prohibited:

(1) Twelve Air Tractor AT–802L.

(2) Two AT–504 trainer aircraft.

(3) Weapons package, technical support and program management” (Budd & Hunter, 2017).

It is not long ago since this was sanctioned to the Kenya Defense Force and their missions, as this was a supplement to the on-going missions that the Kenya contingent in Somalia and might even be used as blue-helmets inside South Sudan. Still, the U.S. Representatives think these will be misguided and not well used arms for their ally in East Africa. This is the double-standard and double moral from the U.S. counterparts that easily has dropped and sold this sort of weapons to others, but has to all of sudden sanction Kenya for buying the same thing.

Just take a look at the timing of the deal between the U.S. and Kenyan earlier in 2017:

“The US Defence Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) notified Congress of the possible sale on 19 January and disclosed the potential sale on 23 January” (…) “The DSCA said Kenya had requested the sale of up to twelve Air Tractor AT-802L and two AT-504 trainer aircraft, weapons, technical support and programme management worth $418 million” (…) “This proposed sale contributes to the foreign policy and national security of the United States by improving the security of a strong regional partner who is a regional security leader undertaking critical operations against al-Shabaab and troop contributor to the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM),” the DSCA said” (…) “The proposed sale provides a needed capability in the ongoing efforts to counter al-Shabaab. The platform maximizes the Kenyan Defense Force’s Close Air Support (CAS) ability because it is a short-field aircraft capable of using precision munitions and cost effective logistics and maintenance.” (DefenceWeb, 2017).

So a purchase accepted in January is now in question in February, as the new Trump Administration will not care for the allies and friends as such before. The DSCA sanctioned the sale on the 23rd January 2017 and now on the 14th February 2017 the U.S. Representatives questions the sale. So the AMISOM mission and their allies who fights in it doesn’t matter as much, as that was the destination for the arms and technical weaponry in this transaction. That the sales of close worth over $400m that suddenly goes into the wind!

We will see if the Foreign Affairs Committee at the House of Representatives will work with this and see if this will go for voting in the House or Senate to sufficiently go forward with joint communique of Ted Budd and Duncan Hunter. That then will become legislation as the deal will not happen as the Committee will put forward a motion or legislation that the stops the arms agreement and trade between the DSCA and the Government of Kenya. Therefore the U.S. Arms trade to the Kenyan Defense Force.

This story is certainly not over. Peace.

Reference:

DefenceWeb – ‘US approves possible Air Tractor, weapons sale to Kenya’ (24.01.2017) link: http://www.defenceweb.co.za/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=46563:us-approves-possible-air-tractor-weapons-sale-to-kenya&catid=35:Aerospace&Itemid=107

Representative Ted Budd (R-North Carolina) & Representative Duncan Duane Hunter (R-California) – ‘H.J.Res. 72: Relating to the disapproval of the proposed foreign military sale to the Government of Kenya of Air Tractor aircraft with weapons, and related support’ (14.02.2017)

Kenya: Hon CJ’S Remarks on Doctors Strike Case (16.02.2017)

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Reserve Bank Gov. Mangudya says the economy of Zimbabwe is an ‘albatross’!

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The Governor Dr. J.P. Mangudya Zimbabwean Reserve Bank writes a special piece on the Zimbabwean economy, not as bleak as the one Finance Minister P.A. Chinamasa wrote in mid-year report of 2016. The Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), of January of 2017, as still evident of the issues in the Zimbabwean economy. With the knowledge of the debt-burden that has arisen together with the suspended international loans, the state funds has funds dwindled. Also, the monetary and fiscal prudence has been weakening as told by the governor of the Reserve Bank. The Governor even called the Zimbabwean Economy an “albatross”, the rest of it says it all.

Zimbabwean economy needs to catch up:

“The positive spin-offs from the recent removal of Zimbabwe from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) remedial measures, following successful clearance of its arrears to the Fund in October 2016, are also expected to go a long way in reducing Zimbabwe’s country risk, thus attracting the much needed foreign investment. Completion of the clearance of external debt arrears to the rest of the international financial institutions – African Development Bank (AfDB), World Bank and European Investment Bank (EIB) – is expected to further reduce the country’s debt burden that continues to be an albatross on Zimbabwe’s access to foreign finance for the past 16 years now at a time when other emerging markets have been making tremendous strides in their economic transformation. As a consequence, Zimbabwe has lagged behind and needs to catch up with its peers” (Mangudya, P: 6-7, 2017).

Reactions to drought:

“In 2016, food imports (maize and wheat), however, surged owing to the El Nino induced drought that destroyed crops in the Southern African region, including Zimbabwe. Continued reliance on imports of finished goods is unsustainable as it undermines current efforts to resuscitate domestic industrial production, leading to significant trade and current account deficits” (Mangudya, P: 15, 2017).

Other key development:

“Driven by merchandise trade developments, the current account deficit is estimated to have narrowed down by about 15.5%, from a deficit of US$1,519.4 million in 2015, to a deficit of US$1,283.9 million in 2016, partly on account of the projected decline in the import bill. Remittances, which are also a major source of import financing declined by 17.9% in 2016, from US$1,917.7 million received in 2015 to US$1,574.0 million in 2016. Of the total amount received in 2016, US$779.0 million reflects remittances from the Diaspora while remittances from International Organizations (NGOs) amounted to US$795.0 million” (Mangudya, P: 16, 2017).

Problematic government loans:

“Reflecting developments on both the current and capital account, the overall balance of payments position is estimated to have deteriorated from a deficit of US$25.8 million in 2015 to a deficit of US$186.4 million in 2016. This phenomenon reflects an unsustainable economic situation of funding capital projects using loans as opposed to equity. The danger with this scenario is that debt would become unsustainable as exports are mortgaged towards debt repayments” (Mangudya, P: 19-20, 2017).

Unbalanced economy:

“The fact that the 14.4% of the country’s foreign receipts handled by RBZ for redistribution into the market seems to have more impact in the economy is a sign of market failure. The Bank shall quickly move to redress this market failure through measures that compel banks to adhere to the import priority list and to mitigate against institutional indiscipline such as the use of more foreign exchange for personal card and DSTV transactions ahead of raw materials to produce cooking oil, for example. Financial institutions should do some soul searching and rethink on how they add value to the economy under the New Normal” (Mangudya, P: 67, 2017).

Bond- Notes introduction:

“The Bank is encouraged by the manner in which the nation embraced bond notes. The Bank has to date issued $94 million of bond notes into the market against an aggregate value of the export incentive of $107 million. Whilst the circulation of the bond notes represented by levels of deposits and withdrawals is also encouraging, the Bank is putting in place a redistributable measure that mitigates against skewed concentration of bond notes within the banking sector by limiting the maximum amount of bond notes that each bank should hold at any given point in time in relation to its level and type of transactions. This measure is necessary to ensure that bonds notes are distributed proportionately according to the customer base or customer profile of each banking institution” (…) “The Bank is directing financial institutions to strictly observe the policy to deposit bond notes into the US$ accounts without requesting the banking public to differentiate between bond notes and US$ cash. This measure is essential to ensure that bond notes continue to trade at parity with the US$ and to reflect the fact that bond notes are supported by the US$200 million offshore facility to support the demand for foreign exchange attributable to bond notes” (Mangudya, P: 67-68, 2017).

When you see this numbers alone, there would be more meat in the report that says lots of the downfalls of the economy. The Governor said the fiscal issues and debt, together with the lacking of imports and exports, the short and less infused funds. With that in mind, instead of pounding on the troubled economy, we should rather enjoy a moment of explanation of why albatross is so dire:

“something or someone you want to be free from because that thing or person is causing you problems” (Cambridge Dictionary) and this one too: “a continuing problem that makes it difficult or impossible to do or achieve something” (Merriam Webster Dictionary). So the Albatross for the Zanu-PF is the economy, even as they eat of it and deplete it. However, the turbulence and insecurity isn’t over as the trust in the Bond-Notes or the other factors as the New Normal isn’t giving. Peace.

Reference:

Dr. J.P. Mangudya – ‘“Stimulating Economic Growth and Bolstering Confidence”’ – Monetary Policy Statement, Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ)