Opinion: Now that the World Bank has new priorities, they will most likely not loan to the pipelines in East Africa!

 

There is certain movements that will strike as more expensive for the East African Community (EAC). This being for the Government of Uganda (GoU) and the Government of Kenya (GoK), who has big plans of petroleum pipelines from their oil-fields and to the coast. That being from Turkana to Lamu Port. While the Ugandan oil goes from Hoima to Tanga Port in Tanzania. Both development and industrial projects will have issues with the funding. The World Bank has supported massive infrastructure projects in both countries.

Therefore, for the two counties big development and oil industry, this is giant set-back, since they have to find funding and loans for the pipelines on the open market. Even with higher interests and making the profits of it lesser, than it would have been with a World Bank loan. It would not hurt the pocket as much as it does on the open market. The banks wants more profits themselves and also make sure they are paid-in-full.

With all this in mind. There are speculations, but first. Parts of the self-answering service. Before we look at the reactions in Kenya and Uganda. All of are important, as the state is involved in the licensing and building the pipelines. They are directly into the development and procurement of the pipelines. That is why this is big blow for the administrations and their possible tax-profits on it.

Word Bank Q&A:

Q. How is “upstream” oil and gas defined?

Upstream is an industry term that refers to exploration of oil and natural gas fields, as well as drilling and operating wells to produce oil and natural gas” (World Bank, 2017).

Current projects in our portfolio would continue as planned. However, no new investments in upstream oil and gas would be undertaken after 2019, unless under exceptional circumstances as noted in the decision” (World Bank, 2017).

Kenya Pipeline:

The announcement by the bank, which has significant interests in Kenya’s oil prospecting sector, does not bode well for the country’s anticipated entry into the club of oil producing nations beginning next year. Analysts said they do not expect an immediate reaction to the announcement even as they acknowledged that it takes the shine from oil in the long term” (…) “Locally, the World Bank is offering technical support to the Kenyan government, through the Kenya Petroleum Technical Assistance Project, to prime all stakeholders for commercial oil production and sale. The six-year programme is scheduled to run until February 2021 and involves the World Bank managing a Sh5.2 billion fund set up by investors from Germany, Norway and Britain. The World Bank’s private lending arm, International Finance Corporation, is however directly involved in Kenya’s oil fields, having a 6.83 per cent stake in Africa Oil, the Canadian exploration firm with interests in northern Kenya oil blocks” (Mutegi, 2017)

Uganda Pipeline:

The pipeline, is expected to be completed by the year 2020, when the country is scheduled to start oil production. In fact, Uganda’s President, Yoweri Museveni and his Tanzanian counterpart recently commissioned the construction of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline. The two leaders laid mark stones for the crude oil pipeline in Mutukula, Kyotera district and Kabaale in Hoima district. Total E&P Uganda, a subsidiary of French oil giant, Total S.A, is spearheading the construction of the crude oil pipeline on behalf of the joint venture partners. Adewale Fayemi, the general manager, Total E&P Uganda says discussions are ongoing to discuss on the formalities of how the pipeline will be run. Already, an agreement has been reached that the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) will be run and managed by a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) – private pipeline company. This means that a private company will be incorporated with joint venture partners – Tullow Uganda, Cnooc Uganda Ltd and Total E&P Uganda, and the governments of Uganda and Tanzania as shareholders in the company” (Ssekika, 2017)

Certainly, this will put a strain on the projects. They have to deliver another type of arrangement to make sure they get funding and have the funds to pay the added interests the banks wants. The added points on the dollar and the interest-rates will hit state-owned firms and the state itself. Since the pipelines most likely becomes more expensive and will be less profitable.

That the World Bank is pulling out of these projects is all within line of the Paris Accord, as they have professed is the reason. Still, this will make these projects more expensive and make sure they are earning less on it. Unless, the crude-oil prices are going up to a level that makes these investments even more profitable. That is only for time to tell. Since it is costly projects and also sophisticated to build. There is needed lots of expertise combined state planning to achieve the development plans.

This is just the beginning, but the pipelines and these investments are vital for both Kenya and Uganda. As the governments are already borrowing state funds on the possible earnings from the oil reserves in their basins. Therefore, they need to drill and need the petrodollar as quickly as possible. Peace.

Reference:

Mutegi, Mugambi – ‘World Bank dims Turkana oil hopes’ (14.12.2017) link: http://www.nation.co.ke/business/World-Bank-dims-Turkana-oil-hopes/996-4227848-u02v8n/index.html

Ssekika, Edward – ‘East African Crude Oil Pipeline: The Inside Story’ (11.12.2017) link: http://www.oilinuganda.org/features/economy/east-african-crude-oil-pipeline-the-inside-story-details-emerge-of-how-the-crude-oil-pipeline-will-be-financed-managed.html

World Bank – ‘Q&A: The World Bank Group and Upstream Oil and Gas’ (12.12.2017) link: http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climatechange/brief/qa-the-world-bank-group-and-upstream-oil-and-gas

UN Special Rapporteur Alston questions the US Government on the extreme poverty in the United States!

The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.”Franklin D. Roosevelt

Yesterday, something rare happen, the United Nations addressed big issues within the United States and their ways of governing. Clearly, this is starch message. If this was a poorer and weaker state. The United States Special Rapporteur Phillip Alston would have condemn their actions. Instead, he is describing it and addressing it. Which is a fresh look from the United Nations, that is worried about the growing poverty in the US. It is special that it happens in this period and time. When the ruling party and majority in both chambers of the Congress. Is working on a bill to give tax relief to the wealthiest, the corporations and growing deficit on the federal budget. Clearly, the value of the middle-class and the poorest doesn’t matter in this calculation. Since, the taxes will grow for the ordinary and the poor, while the richest get more cash.

Therefore, what the UN Special Rapporteur is writing is damning. It is demeaning. This isn’t a fairy-tale or a Disney adventure. This isn’t the dream of gaining fortunes at Silicon Valley. This is the real deal, the issues, the ghetto’s, the slums and the ones living on food-stamps all around the US. The way the United States is governed, might be also a reason for the rampant poverty. Since the Federal State is so far away and the limitations on the States. Barres the State governments from actually delivering necessary welfare and provisions to help their poorest citizens. It could be in their DNA, as everyone is supposed to be self-made and can become millionaires. Even if it is just a tiny group of people who is able to go from the slums and ghetto’s and become vastly wealthy. They are more rare, than the norm. The Rapporteur really paints a story of an American Nightmare and not the American Dream. Alston is describing a bleak picture and shows, that the United States got a lot of work to do. If their citizens are supposed to have equal rights and equal opportunities, because the contrasts and the different spectrum’s of wealth should worry the politicians. Clearly, it doesn’t when we know how the Tax-Plan is and who will benefit in the coming years.

The reality that I have seen, however, is very different. It is a fact that many of the wealthiest citizens do not pay taxes at the rates that others do, hoard much of their wealth off-shore, and often make their profits purely from speculation rather than contributing to the overall wealth of the American community. Who then are the poor? Racist stereotypes are usually not far beneath the surface. The poor are overwhelmingly assumed to be people of color, whether African Americans or Hispanic ‘immigrants’. The reality is that there are 8 million more poor Whites than there are Blacks. Similarly, large numbers of welfare recipients are assumed to be living high on the hog. Some politicians and political appointees with whom I spoke were completely sold on the narrative of such scammers sitting on comfortable sofas, watching color TVs, while surfing on their smart phones, all paid for by welfare. I wonder how many of these politicians have ever visited poor areas, let alone spoken to those who dwell there. There are anecdotes aplenty, but evidence is nowhere to be seen. In every society, there are those who abuse the system, as much in the upper income levels, as in the lower. But the poor people I met from among the 40 million living in poverty were overwhelmingly either persons who had been born into poverty, or those who had been thrust there by circumstances largely beyond their control such as physical or mental disabilities, divorce, family breakdown, illness, old age, unlivable wages, or discrimination in the job market” (…) “There is no magic recipe for eliminating extreme poverty, and each level of government must make its own good faith decisions. But at the end of the day, particularly in a rich country like the USA, the persistence of extreme poverty is a political choice made by those in power. With political will, it could readily be eliminated” (…) “Reflecting on these developments, leading poverty experts have concluded that: Because of this rising joblessness, the U.S. poverty population is becoming a more deprived and destitute class, one that’s disconnected from the economy and unable to meet basic needs. … 40 percent of the 1999 poverty population was in deep poverty … [compared to 46 percent of the 2015 poverty population … . Likewise, rates of extreme poverty (i.e., living on less than $2 per day per person) are also increasing, again because of declining employment as well as growing “disconnection” from the safety net” (Alston, 2017).

This words are striking, these words are address big problems within the American society. That cannot be taken easy. There isn’t proper institutions, programs or even state provisions to help out the ones need. The growing poverty and extreme poverty is weird when you consider the vast amount of wealth residing the same nation. It is like it was rigged to be this way and they are playing demographics and also politics must really be damaging. Since, there aren’t any clear indication that these issues are addressed or significantly cared about by the federal state or the states themselves. The ignorance of the needs of their own, should shatter anyone caring about fellow human beings. That they accept the dire poverty, while the riches families can own estates bigger than some European Kingdoms.

If that isn’t a signal of something in need of change, while so many are struggling to survive and to pay the next rent. That there are a lack of understanding of the generation after generation of struggling individuals in the ghetto’s and slums. These are not looked after or tried to fix, but with small patches and civil society based organization who try to do charity. However, they cannot make them prosper or change the evil circle of lack of jobs and no safety net from the state.

This is political choice and by political will, by the ones that actually are in power. They have to show their concern. Give their legislation and make sure that these people are addressed and have a future. Since they can leave the groundwork and framework so they can live life beyond the hand-to-mouth. But actually own a home and live decent. Instead of struggling with every single penny. Worrying about if either you or any other person in the family ending up in the hospital. If so, they have to collect more debt and struggle more because of lack of coverage and funds to be able to pay for health-insurance. That could be typical issue for Americans on the poverty line. The forgotten by all powers and shown these days by the tax-plan as well, who will make Medicaid and other programs get grave cut. While the corporations are getting tax-holidays.

There is something really wrong these days in America. The riches are really poor. They cannot afford to pay tax or even contribute to the society they are earning their fortunes in. They are so poor, they cannot stomach paying points on the dollars, so the poorest and their workers can get some social benefits. So they can be more healthy and work better for them. Instead, their greed and their draconian ways, will make the extreme poverty even worse and grow numbers of people in dire needs. With time, the corporations will also have fewer costumers. Since they cannot afford to buy their products. So it won’t gain growth, when making more people poor, while a minority will get even wealthier. Peace.

Reference:

Alston, Phillip – ‘Statement on Visit to the USA, by Professor Philip Alston, United Nations Special Rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights*’ (15.12.2017)

A Working Paper reveals the political stakes in the Kenya-Somali Illegal Sugar Trade!

The Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS) have had a study into the border trade and sugar exports through Somalia into Kenya. How it is used and how it gets to the market. Clearly, the market for sugar is there in Kenya. As the Sugar Industry is struggling to deliver enough sugar and the state has embargoed imports. Still, the same actors and the same politicians are doing behind closed doors agreements that put the sugar in stores through the porous borders of the Kenyan-Somalian border.

The paper itself paint the picture very well and show the importance of the export, since the magnitude on both economies are affected by it. It is also implicating big names and their organizations. As the politicians has another black-market cartel item to sell to the public. What was striking was that the importers together with local merchants are repacking the sugar into bags of the State Owned Entity (SOE) of Mumias. The Company that has been saved the state after devastating corruption and also lacking investment into the mills. Therefore, the politicians has used this name to trade illegal sugar with name. That they even used the stickers to prove it was of Kenyan quality while selling it to the public.

The quotes I have taken, is what see as important. But its compelling to show the this illegal imports into Kenya affects the politicians and the economy in general. Take a look!

The Amount of Money:

Raw sugar accounts for 10% of total Somali imports rated at US $188 billion (Observatory of Economic Complexity 2016). In other words, sugar importing is enormously lucrative and important for the local economy on both sides of the border. The sugar imported from Somalia is central for covering the production and import deficit in Kenya. Most sugar enters through Kismayu port where it is manually loaded onto trucks and driven to the Kenyan border. There it is re-loaded onto other trucks, four-wheel drive vehicles and even donkey carts to cross the border on the so-called ‘rat routes’ that circumvent the border posts to avoid the payment of bribes, random checks by the Kenyan Revenue Authority (KRA), and the occasional confiscation. Based on interviews and observation JFJ estimates that 150,000 tons of illegal sugar entered Kenya from Kismayu in 2014 (JFJ 2015). This amounts to US $400 million worth of annual revenue divided between KDF, Al-Shabaab, local businessmen and politicians, as well as local police and border patrols, including the KRA (though this is not formal revenue) (JFJ 2015)” (DIIS Working Paper, P: 10, 2017).

KRA:

The investigator explained how his unit, in collaboration with the Kenyan Revenue Authorities (KRA) and the Kenya Bureau of Standards (KEBS), had planned the raid of a warehouse in an industrial area of Nairobi. They had found tons of processed Brazilian sugar allegedly smuggled into Kenya via Somalia, and it was now being repackaged from 50 kilo sacks into 500 gram and 1 kilo bags bearing the Kenyan brand Mumias Sugar and with added stickers from KEBS showing that the product meets Kenyan standards of production and quality. The repackaged sugar is – when not confiscated by the authorities – sold to retailers as refined Kenyan sugar at a huge profit. In 2014 a one kilo sugar bag sold for KES 133 in Nairobi supermarkets, and by May 2017 prices had gone up to KES 170 with some supermarkets rationing it to one package per customer” (DIIS Working Paper, P: 12, 2017).

Political Influence:

Like the former Nairobi governor Evans Kidero, the Garissa governor Nathif Jama Adam, and the Garissa-born majority speaker of parliament Aden Duale are rumoured to be implicated in the sugar trade (Rawlence 2016: 236). These rumours reach all the way to Nairobi where they can be voiced more freely than in the north. The power of the people implicated by the rumours is more distant in Nairobi, whereas in the northern parts of Kenya the secrecy associated with the rumours points to the importance and power of those involved” (…) “With devolution, local government has become more powerful and more is at stake for locally elected officials due to their increased budget responsibilities and decision-making powers. Concomitantly, local government has become more vulnerable to pressures from local stakeholders like strong businessmen, militias and other state actors. The porous border, the circumvention of border patrols, and the implication of government officials ranging from KDF to KRA means that much of the sugar is not declared to Kenyan customs officials, making Garissa county one of the largest illicit markets in the country. The flow of goods across the border and further into Kenya formally falls under the responsibility of KRA and the national government. Yet the county government is responsible for local revenue collection and enforcement at local markets and car parks, and they also issue licenses for traders. In that sense the warehouses in the region fall under county administration. The latter thus plays an important role in the possibilities for the redistribution of smuggled goods” (DIIS Working Paper, P: 15, 18, 2017).

This here is evidence of cartels, illegal trade that is benefiting the political elites in Kenya and in Somalia. They are both having knowledge of it and its undermining the embargoes and also the activity itself. Since the politicians are the ones that has put in the provisions and the laws to stop imports to secure the local sugar industry.

This paper shows how much money that is involved. It is big business and the cartels are earning fortunes on lie, where they take foreign cheap sugar and trade it as Kenyan sugar with stickers of authenticity of KEBS. That is clearly a violation in itself, but combined with the illegal sugar, they are even using sophisticated methods to trade it to the public. To make the sugar seem like Kenya, when it isn’t.

That this money is shared by many different part of government officials was implicated int the trade from Kenya Defense Force Officials, Kenya Revenue Authority Officials, Border Patrol, Politicians and even Somali terrorist organization Al-Shabab. So the Kenyan are sending military to Somali to fight Al-Shabab, but at the same time giving them revenue with illegal sugar trade. That is a striking a fact considering the use of military to secure safety for Kenyans. Therefore, the cartels are also making sure the reason they are fighting inside Somalia are funded by the stakes into the illegal sugar industry. That should put some alarm bells on. That the politicians are playing with matches and should know that this cartel plus funding of Al-Shabab might hurt them in the long-run. Instead of being just a profitable business.

This is eye-opening and also a tale of corruption and sugar-cartels using the porous borders between the republics in favor of those dealing illegal sugar and selling it on the Kenyan market. Certainly, this sort of thing will implicate bigger names, than the ones mentioned in the paper. If investigated and looked through. You could certainly also find many bigger names who has created massive wealth within short amount of time. Peace.

Reference:

Rasmussen, Jacob – ‘SWEET SECRETS: SUGAR SMUGGLING AND STATE FORMATION IN THE KENYA–SOMALIA BORDERLANDS’ (December 2017) – DIIS Working Paper 2017:11

Opinion: What will we leave behind to the next generation?

I wonder if our leaders of our time is considering their legacy and the aftermath of their decisions. Its like the constant breaking news, the steady flow of information and the reactions are more damage control, than actually policies for a sustainable future. Where the actions of today either creates more hostile environment or more fragile institutions for the next generation to gaze upon. Its like we should wonder, what we have to do. To be sure the kids of today, will have states and institutions that are considered good.

We can wonder if the states are built more for corporations and multi-national financial institutions and their needs over what the citizens need. We can wonder if the linear move of financial services is built for the multi-national corporation and their sophisticated tax evasions, which is legal, but still questionable by all parts of society. Because of citizens does so, they will be punished by late-taxes, while a corporation can create a shell-company and move the money like a saint.

We can really wonder what will be left behind, as the states are fragile, the military powers are extended and more countries are affected of violence and senseless killings. By both militants and by state sponsored armies. All of this are creating havoc and making the states weaker, while the injustice roam. Citizens are fleeing injustice and insecurity, trying to find shelter and a new home. While the riches nations are putting up higher walls, making it more dangerous to pass and making agreements on the borders. To stop them and even send them home into violence and possible death by association. This is all happening, day to day.

In many countries it is dangerous to be opposition. If you oppose the ruling regime, you will be arbitrary arrested, your family will be monitored and you might be assassinated. Your business will be taken over or destroyed. The elections are rigged and the appointments made by the elected officials are obnoxious. They are made for facilitating the parties and their cronies. Not to build institutions or departments to deliver services to the citizens, but instead its used for cronies of the leadership of the day.

So it seems like tomorrow is forgotten, because the latest burning fire is more important that thinking about the future. If we could avoid it or even try to find solutions to avoid fires. Stop the dry forests, find out why the temperatures are arising and all the other issues for the running fires. It has to be stopped. The reasons for the businesses has the ability to take out profits where they initially earn it and put it into accounts in Tax Havens. That takes away needed funds and state reserves to secure delivery of needed functions of the state. Which all costs from planning to delivering, from salaries to procurement. Everything has to be covered by the taxes and the revenue made within the state, therefore, when the corporations are allowed to move profits without taxes. They are initially using the state and citizens, while also shelving the needed costs of actually doing business in the state. Even if it is profitable today, it might be more costly tomorrow. As the bankrupt states, the initial degree of defaulting on loans and the interests pay by the state. Take away even more services and possible development of the needed ministries and departments by the state. It is an evil circle, which in the end, make it impossible for the businesses to do business, since the public cannot afford and the state cannot afford either. Since they are all paying down loans, instead of growing the economy with need for the products these businesses make.

If the leadership of today had cared and had thought it through. They would have had more mechanisms, would have had more secured definitions and actually built institutions with protocols to fix possibly tomorrows problems. Instead, we are trying to configure and find solutions again and again. We are trying again to fix similar problems, with lacking funds and times. We are having meager responses and lack luster performances. Where we are building up personality cults and armed generals as leaders, while forgetting why we have governments. The governments that are there as representatives and providers for our day to day lives.

Still, that vision is far fetched and also seems like pipe-dream. Where the states are more and more complying to multi-national corporations and their interests over the needs of the citizens. If not they are complying to the leadership or one single leader who control the state itself. The democratic values are dying, the benefit of representation is dwindling and the face-value of the government. The government is losing value, while the ones leading them is enriching themselves instead of serving the citizens. They are doing this, this way since they are obliging the corporations and cronies instead of serving them.

Is this the legacy we want to leave to the next generation? Is this the state of affairs, we want to be remembered for? That we let them take us and use us for our time and when we lived. That we didn’t build a better tomorrow for us the citizens, but to make sure the leaders and the corporations earned on our hard work and dedication. Its clearly somebody is compensated, while the rest is bleeding.

While we’re wounded and taken for granted. Should we react, should we question and should find ways to demonstrate our discontent with the current affair. As our state mind cannot accept being taken for granted and being used in the favors of people we don’t know and doesn’t represent us anyway.

We should about this and wonder, how can we recover and make they do? What can we do as citizens to get this back? Get them to represent us instead of them. Be for us and work for us and not work for them. Neither work for the corporations or the cronies, but work for us. That is not to much to ask for, but it wouldn’t be easy.

We have to work together and dismantle this. Because the governments cannot be traded-off and we be used only to vote before every term and then left astray. We cannot accept that the illegitimacy of the current state. With leaders disrespecting both their citizens and the state institutions to stay in power. That is how it is, but not how it should be.

I don’t have any solutions, but we have to start discussions and consider our ways. Think and find ways out of this mess. So we can leave a better world for the next generation. Not leave a world with leaders and states, where the citizens are disenfranchised and lost with few options. Where the corporations together with multi-national organizations are taken control, instead of the governments. That is not how its supposed to be with the civil service and the ministries/departments of our states.

We need change, we need something else. We shall not and should not accept to deliver this mess to the next generation. They never asked for this and should not have to work against it. We should deliver are better world to them and not leave a battlefield and a turmoil, while hoping we have given them the work ethic and the skills overcome it. Peace.

Brexit: Key quotes from the Joint Report made by EU and UK yesterday!

Yesterday, the Brexit negotiations made some progress finally. The negotiations between European Union and United Kingdom, as United Kingdom are leaving the Union during the year of 2019. As that is happening, there are needed for agreements and deals to secure movement and trade between the continent and the island kingdom. That will not happen automatically, but has to happen with agreements between them. Therefore, after lots of months with no key movement. Yesterday it was finally something real that was delivered between them. Not that it has solved much, but it shows progress and need for continued presence of consultations to find solutions for the parties.

Union citizens who in accordance with Union law legally reside in the UK, and UK nationals who in accordance with Union law legally reside in an EU27 Member State by the specified date, as well as their family members as defined by Directive 2004/38/EC who are legally resident in the host State by the specified date, fall within the scope of the Withdrawal Agreement (for personal scope related to frontier workers, see paragraph 15, and for social security, see paragraph 28)” (EU/UK, P: 3, 2017).

This should at least give rest to all citizens if they are British or European, that their rights within United Kingdom is not revoked and he same with UK in the EU. This gives a leeway to the citizens of both EU and UK. They are safe and sound. There will not be a problem between them after UK leaves.

In the absence of agreed solutions, as set out in the previous paragraph, the United Kingdom will ensure that no new regulatory barriers develop between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom, unless, consistent with the 1998 Agreement, the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly agree that distinct arrangements are appropriate for Northern Ireland. In all circumstances, the United Kingdom will continue to ensure the same unfettered access for Northern Ireland’s businesses to the whole of the United Kingdom internal market” (…) “Both Parties will establish mechanisms to ensure the implementation and oversight of any specific arrangement to safeguard the integrity of the EU Internal Market and the Customs Union” (EU/UK, P: 8, 2017).

The Irish question that was stopped by a phone-call earlier this month shows how hard it was settle this text. Since the European Union, Irish Republic and the United Kingdom had to be collectively together on the agreement, that fits the paradigm of all parties. If it was the UK, Irish and the EU. That the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) have secured their place, but at the same time. The Irish have made sure to make no troubles on the borders for now. This has been hectic for the Tories and United Kingdom. While the EU have followed the wishes of the Irish, since they are a Member State.

On ensuring continuity in the availability of goods placed on the market under Union law before withdrawal both Parties recognise the need to provide legal certainty and minimise disruption to business and consumers. Both Parties have agreed the principles that the goods placed on the market under Union law before withdrawal may freely circulate on the markets of the UK and the Union with no need for product modifications or re-labelling; be put into service where provided in Union law, and that the goods concerned should be subject to continued oversight” (EU/UK, P: 14, 2017)

Therefore, the United Kingdom, will even as they are leaving making sure they are following EU Law on Consumer and Trade, as they want to be sure that all markets and products still are on the shelves as they leave. This means, that the UK still will follow procedure and regulations from Brussels concerning corporations and labeling, all sort of economic activity. Since they will have to do this, to be sure to have imports and exports of all kind. If it is financial services or products themselves will be made sure to be there, even after the UK left the Union.

The ones that believed it would be striking difference between the UK outside of the EU and the ones inside. Are mistaken, especially when considering the first joint report delivered the public yesterday. Its more of the same, but some minor changes. When it comes to trading right now, they still have to comply to Brussels.

I didn’t look into so much the Financial Dispute, since that is already been discussed in the media and been into, as it is natural while ending a genuine partnership and membership, that you pay the obligations and the agreed upon years within institutions that has been built while being apart of the Union itself. Therefore, the texts there wasn’t that interesting. It was more significant, that the Market Place has to comply with Brussels. That Irish got their wish on the border, even if it not 100% Official, as it is still not binding agreement. It still shows how much the UK has given and how little they have gained with the meetings with the EU. Peace.

Reference:

EU/UK – ‘Joint report from the negotiators of the European Union and the United Kingdom Government on progress during phase 1 of negotiations under Article 50 TEU on the United Kingdom’s orderly withdrawal from the European Union’ (08.12.2017)

Opinion: Kenyatta says to the Opposition – You can wait with dialogue until 2022!

We are today seeing the real vision of the Jubilee Party and the two center pieces of the administration. This being President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto. At a speech done in Muranga, today the 9th December 2017. Just as his second official term as President is starting, after a pro-longed and hectic election period. Which has its consequence of a stand-off between Jubilee and the National Super Alliance with Raila Odinga. Clearly, this stand-off his hurting the pride of the President. Since he has gone back to not wishing to politic, but still tell how NASA is supposed to operate in the new environment. It is impressive, that he spells out that the successor is Ruto. No-one is surprised by that, its been in the cards unless Gideon Moi is surfacing like phoenix from the ashes. But for now, that will not happen.

That the President, the incumbent are so in dire needs to show his power over the opposition. Which entails, them being in the fringes and hope to talk in 2022. Like the Jubilee own the country, even after a giant shambolic and botched elections in October 2017. It is amazing how glaceed over that is and how blatant disregard of the other narrative is at play. That Jubilee shows their arrogance and their bitterness to NASA is evident. Since, they are still putting all the terms and all control. While expecting the NASA just to fold their hands and wait to see if their getting any breadcrumbs left on the plate by the President. By the way, with the little people showing up to the second presidential elections, proves that Kenyatta, really doesn’t have the people on his side. Maybe, the courts allowed the second one, because of lack of merit of the cases. Still, that doesn’t change the fact that Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) did a terrible job concealing their rigging for Kenyatta.

Here is what he himself has added to the world:

The President said Kenyans are waiting for development and are not interested in endless political talks. In a remark pointed at the leadership of the opposition which has been calling for dialogue with the Government, the President said the dialogue he is ready for is talk on how to develop Kenya and bring progress for Kenyans. He called on the opposition leaders to realise that the next phase of politics will be in 2022 when the country will go for another general election. He said they (opposition leaders) should wait for the next campaign season for any other type of dialogue and during that time the leader they will negotiate with will be Deputy President William Ruto. “The dialogue we are interested in now is the dialogue that transforms lives and brings development. On the other one of talking politics wait for 2022 and you will dialogue with William,” said the President” (Kenyatta, 2017).

It is hard to transform lives and bring development, when your trying to create it in a vacuum of dishonesty and ignorance. There is lack of trust between the legal government and popular uprising within the opposition. That is why President Kenyatta wants to silence the efforts done by NASA and their leadership. Even detain and arbitrary arrest them, when he sees fit. This phase will be hectic and be troublesome for the Jubilee. The NASA leadership will not accept the discontent and the aggressive use of security forces against them. That is why the Jubilee should be worried. Since they are creating are more hostile environment, because they are using the state sanctioned violence against their own citizens.

Kenyatta, might say he don’t want political talks, but he is the one needing it the most. He is most vulnerable. Kenyatta has everything to loose, the same has Ruto. They might not say it, but that is the truth. They have built it on a house of cards and it just needs a small movement, before the whole falls apart.

So when he wants to discuss development, it should be with concern he does so. Since he haven’t delivered in his first term. Most likely not in his second. Since the aggressive oppressive behavior will not put the case of rigging or illegitimate government to rest. It will just pro-long the exercise and create more wounds between both parties. Kenyatta knows all of this, since he has been himself in opposition, but the power has corrupted him.

I am not surprised that Kenyatta says these thing and suggest it. He wants to shield himself, but shoots himself in the foot. However, don’t get confused. It is all big talk from the big man, but he knows he is vulnerable too. If not, he wouldn’t put it this way and make the opposition looks like they need to talk to him. It is the other way around. Since his republic is in trouble. Internal trouble and with a stalemate, because of his actions and his sponsored activity, through his party and his infested acts within state organizations.

Kenyatta, if your playing smart. You are not playing like this. Your throwing matches into a barrel of gasoline. That will start a fire and fires are hard to control. Right now are the NASA starting their shadow government and their People’s Assemblies. As this movement is rising combined with boycotts. Will hurt the legitimacy and even show the lack of work done by the central government made by the Jubilee itself.

Kenyatta is not winning on doing it like this, but not that he cares. He could say during campaigns that in some counties, that he didn’t need their votes. Therefore, he don’t need the citizens, they are just props in his life. He needs to speak about development and development projects to secure donor funding for government projects. That is why he don’t need insecurity and becoming even more fragile, since that will hurt the cases for getting donor grants and prospects of foreign support. Peace.

Reference:

Kenyatta, Uhuru – ‘The season of politics is over, let us talk development, President Kenyatta says’ (09.12.2017)

Bears Ears National Monument: Energy Fuels Letter to U.S. Department of the Interior – ” Re: Review of Certain National Monuments, Federal Register Notice of May 11, 2017″ (25.05.2017)

Brexit: Lords Report shows dire consequences of a “No Deal”!

If you ever will believe the narrative of the Conservative Party and the leadership around Theresa May, Boris Johnson and David Davis. Then you might believe there will be no consequences if the United Kingdom leave the European Union without any agreement. That means all the previous ones will cease and the third state of United Kingdom. Will loose all direct connections and also hurt all sort of movements between UK and European Member States and the Schengen Countries. This will hurt businesses, exports and also direct movement between UK and the EU. I will take the quotes that are showing the most concern from the House of Lords. The words from there is not my own, but from the Lords themselves and what they have collected. Take a look!

The Loan Market Association pointed out that the loss of the Capital Requirements Directive passport would have a major impact on lending and loan market activities conducted by banks. A sudden withdrawal of passporting rights could affect both the enforceability of existing loan agreements and the ability and willingness by UK-based lenders to enter into future agreements” (…) “Lloyd’s predicted that the transfer of personal data from the EU to the UK would also be more difficult for UK firms doing business in the EEA. London based firms would therefore have to establish EEA subsidiaries or cease to write EEA insurance” (House of Lords, P: 11, 2017).

The Fresh Produce Consortium noted that the Port of Dover handled 600 lorries per day transporting fresh produce. In 2016, the UK imported 3 million tonnes of fresh produce from other EU Member States. Many suppliers dealing solely in EU imports have no experience of meeting customs requirements, and registration as an Authorised Economic Operator would not be feasible for most small importers” (…) “The British Retail Consortium warned that the average tariff on food products imported from the EU would be 22%, with tariffs on Irish cheddar of 44% and on beef of 40%. Its research pointed to potential rises in the price of cheese in the order of 6–32%, on tomatoes of 9–18%, and on beef of 5–29%. Nontariff barriers would be burdensome in relation to customs checks, and health or veterinary checks stemming from sanitary and phytosanitary requirements” (House of Lords, P: 12, 2017).

The Institute for Government noted that, in order to prepare the border for ‘no deal’, change would be needed across 30 Government departments and public bodies, as well as more than 100 local authority organisations. Private sector port operators, freight forwarders and shipping lines would need to adapt

their infrastructure, paperwork and logistics. France, The Netherlands and Ireland would also need to plan for disruption at their ports. Operation Stack demonstrated how delays at Calais have a knock-on effect in Dover” (…) “The BRC pointed out that up to 180,000 UK companies would be drawn into customs declarations for the first time. Companies would have to operate new excise and VAT systems for compliance purposes” (House of Lords, P: 14, 2017).

The London Chamber of Commerce and Industry noted that there was no WTO ‘fail safe’ for the aviation sector: “The ultimate danger is that without a deal, flights from the UK and to the EU and other parts of the world will be grounded on exit day … And without an early deal—meaning clarity for airports, airlines and travellers as soon as possible in 2018—the uncertainty around what might happen will begin to weigh on the decision making of those considering travel.” (House of Lords, P: 15, 2017).

The Russell Group concluded that no deal would affect universities’ ability to deliver world-leading research and education. No deal on the rights of EU citizens to live, study and work in the UK could lead to a loss of talented researchers and technicians with specialist skills who could not be replaced easily by UK nationals. If the UK and EU did not secure an agreement on science and research collaboration, UK institutions would cease to be eligible for Horizon 2020 funding on the day of exit. This would mean funding for existing projects would be withdrawn and researchers would immediately lose the ability to bid for this funding, with a detrimental impact on international competitiveness” (House of Lords, P: 16, 2017).

The Institute for Government observed that “if the UK leaves the EU with no deal, it will not be possible to put in place any agreed arrangements to manage the border in Ireland. The UK could (possibly) decide to turn a blind eye. But the land border will represent the external frontier of the EU’s Single Market and Customs Union and it is hard to envisage how they would manage that without some sort of controls in place.” (House of Lords, P: 17, 2017).

A complete ‘no deal’ outcome would be deeply damaging for the UK. It would bring UK-EU cooperation on matters vital to the national interest, such as counter-terrorism, police, justice and security matters, nuclear safeguards, data exchange and aviation, to a sudden halt. It would place the status of UK nationals in the EU, and EU nationals in the UK, in jeopardy, and would necessarily lead to the imposition of controls at the Irish land border” (House of Lords, P: 44, 2017).

The Conservative Party after this report is released cannot say the “No Deal” is a good deal, since the effect on their own and the business community is damaging. The movement between the UK and the EU will be hurt. It is just a matter of how hard and how strained the sudden change between the UK and EU occur.

The words of the report is showing just brief reflections of how a non-deal would effect the UK. Therefore, the Tories should do whatever they can to let the negotiations go smooth and make sure the separation goes well for all parties. That the borders between Ireland and European Union is not put on hold, but actually have tariffs and have regulations for movement after they left. If it is for the movement of the people or imports/exports of services and products. We can clearly see by the information collected into the House of Lords Report. That the “No Deal”, will make certain industry suffer and make the transition ever more costly for business, which will also hurt the people who has to pay more for their services/products.

If the Conservative Party still pounds and says that a “No Deal” is still okay. Then they are not looking into or not telling the truth about the implications of that. The Tories better come clean try to work against the clock for the betterment of their citizens. They have a mission to secure their citizens and their future on the outside of EU. No matter what that is, the UK has to make sure the provisions and regulations are put in place, so people and businesses can work under new agreement between EU and the UK. Peace.

Reference:

House of Lords – European Union Committee – ‘Brexit: deal or no deal’ (07.12.2017)

Brexit: Theresa May was DUPed today!

Ouch! Today the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) Leader Arlene Foster and her agreement with the Conservative Party and Prime Minister Theresa May blocked a possible agreement today in Brussels. The European Union and United Kingdom negotiations to get first agreement and end Phase I is stalled for yet another time. Even as the power-players of the Brexit is coming to the forefront. There are vital signs on the horizon and it makes sense.

The Irish Government and their veto is vital for the European Union and their settlement with the United Kingdom. The Republic of Ireland as a Member State has an important role in the negotiations with United Kingdom. Therefore, after the meeting between Donald Tusk and Leo Varadkar, where the President of European Council promised to respect and honor the needs of the Irish in the negotiations. Clearly, showing signs of importance for Union and their Member State.

So now days after and there is a lunch with negotiations between the President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker and United Kingdom Prime Minister Theresa May. As they we’re ending negotiations and there was talk of a special agreement between them. The Northern Irish DUP was ready to go public and say what sort of offer they want in the agreement. Also, show their power and their means within the Tories-DUP Government. As expected when the agreement came in play, the DUP would have the upper-hand over the Tories, since the Tories needs DUP more than DUP needs the Tories.

Now with possible special economic zones where they are still part of single-market and free-trade zones. Will easily offer a conundrum for the Tories. Since if the Northern Irish get so on the will of Dublin and EU. Then, the Scottish, Welsh and London wants similar treatment. That meaning that the City of London, the Financial institutions and European Banks wants to secure this sort of arrangements. So that the tariffs and the expenses crossing borders with these services will not change when the Membership finally ends.

We have already seen First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon asking for special treatment, also the London Mayor Sadiq Khan, First Minister of Wales Carwyn Jones have all asked for favors treating their regions with the same favor as Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland doesn’t only the direct border issue with the Republic of Ireland, but also have special place within the Tories Government. This is all making the Brexit negotiations hectic.

Because, all of these leaders wants the best for Edinburgh, Cardiff and London. The thing is when you open one door, you don’t always know what appears. In this instance, if the Tories and DUP opens up for special treatment of Belfast, than Edinburgh, City of London and Cardiff want similar efforts thrown their way. That is within reason. I am sure David Davis when discussing matters with Michael Barnier, knew about these sketchy, but notable pin-points. To secure a grand deal for all parts of the UK. If not and most likely he was winging it and hoping nobody was paying him any mind or consideration.

Because the Leo Varadkar said in a press conference that the text agreement on the Irish border was agreed upon, but suddenly the United Kingdom couldn’t agree upon it. This happen after Theresa May had a phone-call with Foster, just after Foster and the DUP had their own press conference. Clearly, the DUP haven’t agreed upon it and want to set their foot down.

Today are proving how hard it is for the United Kingdom to have one line and walk in one separate vision towards ending the membership. Since if the one part of their own Union get special treatment, than the Welsh, Scottish and London is expecting similar their way. So there will only be hot pockets in Manchester, Swindon and Newcastle, where they are outside the free-trading zone and single-market, as the Brexit was supposed to entail. That because the Northern Irish question will not only be answered by London or Belfast, but Dublin will have their say in the arrangement of the border.

Dublin have Brussels and the Membership inside the EU. So their veto and stopping of an agreement in powerful. As well as their desire to respect the Good Friday Agreement. The DUP has power over the Tories and London, but have initial power over Brussels. Brussels will listen to Dublin before they listen to Belfast. That is just common-sense. Since Belfast will follow London… ‘

So the DUP could block the Tories in Brussels today, but they cannot push it to far. If they try to, then the agreement between them will fail the government and not extend a hand into the negotiations. So they can get into Phase II and answer other questions the UK needs to address concerning leaving the EU.

This one will not end. And the self-destruction don’t need to come from outside when concerning the UK. The UK can dissolve themselves and hurt themselves whenever needed. The UK are now begging for mercy from Belfast, London needs Belfast. That is why May gave-up the text and border agreement that was ready to fix over lunch today. Clearly, the DUP, they duped May and enjoys it.

We can wonder how May feels when arriving back in London.. She has now been humiliated by their own partner in the government. It must be weird to May. Who cannot win easily and cannot get a stable approach. Today the strong and stable government pledge of General Election 2017. Seemingly seems like a far fetched dream and closer to nightmare. As May cannot even work without being stifled by Foster. Peace.