Opinion: SPLA became today the SSDF, but suddenly the Republican Decree didn’t matter hours later!

Today, President Salva Kiir Mayardit, the Republic of South Sudan and their government has decided to change their name of their military arm. This arm has been since before the independence and while being a guerrilla or a militia who fought for decades to get freedom from Khartoum. Certainly, this is tainting the legacy of Dr. John Garang, but also trying to consolidate the power even more. If not he has gotten advice from President Yoweri Museveni, who himself changed his rebels into the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) from National Resistance Army (NRA), the military arm of the National Resistance Movement (NRM).

President Kiir yesterday renamed the national army, the Sudan’s People Liberation Army (SPLA) after former militia led by Riek Machar and Paulino Matip in 1990 and early 2000s. Through Republican Order Number 12/2017, the President restructured the Command of the SPLA. As the Republican Order was read out on SSBC, the subtle change of reference from the Chief of General Staff to Chief of Defense Forces marked a new change to the official reference of the army as the SPLA to South Sudan Defense Forces. The title South Sudan Defense Forces (SSDF) was previously the name of a pro-Khartoum militia first led by Riek Machar as Commander-In-Chief and later on led by the late Paulino Matip that fought against the SPLA for more than 15 years. The SSDF was the first militia to be integrated into the SPLA in 2006” (The National Courier, 16.05.2017).

Certainly, the name and structure is now different. But their acts still are the same. The renaming itself and the change of structure doesn’t stop the violence and the killings. So this might be a trying of enforcing a different approach, but for the moment it is more fiction, than reality. As the deaths, the man-made famine and the fleeing refugees will not see any different between an SPLA or a SSDF. It is a noble idea, but not life-changing. Until, the army is an institution and a vital part of government. Not a free militia run-by warlords and former rebel generals. That is the situation right now and therefore, the skirmishes and fierce battles, as the collaborated opposition is making the situation even more futile. Until the civil war ends, there aren’t really much to win, as the rebuilding and the create stability will take enormous time, as the warfare in the region has happened for decades upon decades without any end.

If he kicked off King Malong for this reason, as he knew the former general wouldn’t be satisfied being a leader of a national army and being re-branded. That is unknown, as there been indications that he wished to topple President Kiir, but nothing that has come to the surface. However, the government wish to “box” him in. So it is not like the government doesn’t fear that man and his allegiance.

Because of this hours after, the SPLA changed their minds, and didn’t change after all, since the same agency sent this to world, because they knew the issue of changing it:

The office of the president has issued a statement saying that the name of the national army has not been changed from the SPLA to SSDF. The presidential spokesman, Ateny Wek Ateny made the announcement on SSBC despite having told a National Courier journalist this morning that the name has been changed. The NC called Ateny to clarify on the new title of “Chief of Defense Forces” whether that meant the name SPLA has been dropped of which Ateny said it indeed has been changed to SSDF. Ateny told the NC that no country has maintained the name of its liberation struggle army giving several examples before adding that the change was long overdue. He said it was in accordance with recommendations of defence review committee. This was met with mixed reaction of equal praise and ferocious condemnation. In a statement clarifying the whole saga, Ateny said the name has not been changed only the structure” (The National Courier, 2017).

So the kid didn’t change name, apparently and the shadow game or whatever it was a few hours of mocking and also the truth. The SPLA and SPLM are the same, one is the military organization and the other political one. If there is a close difference or different procedure between them is surely only known by the ones who deserted or rebelled. There are certain some aspects here that the Office of the President Kiir changed his mind, as he knew what this would mean for him and his respect. Therefore, he didn’t dare to do so today.

You can wonder if the President Kiir will release the Republican Decree 12/2017! This should be seen as a historical document of a failed approach or wishful dream of making a swift change from a rebellious past, into a modern Republican Army. Instead, the SPLA and SPLM are still the same the famous SPLM/A. Certainly, the SPLM-IO and all the other rebel outfits must feel with joy that this maneuver. Who even didn’t last a day and the Spokesperson Ateny has really made himself look vulnerable. Since the last report ot the National Courier, really seemed like saving face after the bravado of changing name of the army came into full-effect. Peace.

South Sudan: Communique of the National High Level Committee to Resolve the Conflict between Dinka Bor and Murle Communities (14.05.2017)

South Sudan: Newly appointed SPLA Chief of General Staff: “My Priority is to stabilize the country” (13.05.2017)

U.S. Letter to White House Counsel on President Trump threat to former FBI Director Comey (12.05.2017)

CREW letter claim: “DOJ Obstruction of Justice Investigation Memo” on the Russian Probe (12.05.2017)

U.S.: Letter from EEC to Deputy AG Rosenstein on violations of the “AG Sessions recusal from FBI’s Russian Probe” (12.05.2017)

Opinion: President Museveni is the wrong man for the job, he is not suited to mediate in South Sudan!

I have been allowed by President Salva Kiir to mediate the warring factions in South Sudan. I will use the IGAD monitoring report and work with the IGAD chairman, Ethiopias’ Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalgn to see that those who abuse the ceasefire are talked to,” the President said in a one to one meeting with Mr. Guterres at the sidelines of the International Conference on Somalia at Lancaster House in London” (Okello, 2017)

There are no possible good ending, even as the hyper-inflation marked with the Kenyan Central Bank (KCB) leaving South Sudan. The longstanding conflict and the ruin it has created, the million refugees, hundred thousands in refugee settlements and land in Northern Uganda. Therefore, the Ugandan Republic and the National Resistance Movement are involved in the conflict, even if they doesn’t have brigades on the ground.

President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni has sent in the past Uganda People’s Defense Force (UPDF) to sort out the issues of President Salva Kiir Mayardit and his Sudanese People’s Defence Movement/Army (SPLM/A). These was known and done without any international acceptance and made sure to stop the rebels under the leadership of Dr. Riek Machar and the Sudanese People’s Defence Movement/Army In-Opposition (SPLM/A-IO).

There been reports during this year that the UPDF have helped out with arms export to the SPLA and also helping with operations in Aboko and Bieh State to get technical assistance and also made sure they could use chemical warfare in state. This happen in mid-April 2017, not so long ago. The UPDF involvement is in clear violation and also supporting the government in war-crimes. This have been again paid secret agreements between President Kiir and President Museveni.

That these too men knows each other and has traded is well-known. President Museveni has been helping the cause of SPLM/A for so long, therefore, for some of us it was special when President Omar Al-Bashir showed up last May 2016 at his inauguration. Because President Bashir knows that Museveni helped the SPLM/A and has done for long while. This because President Museveni wants influence and also earn on arms export to the Republic.

With this knowledge, that he is partial and collaborating closely with the Kiir Government and SPLM/A. How will he impartial and be able to fix the amends, try to mediate and understand all the rebellions in South Sudan? The biggest is still SPLM/A-IO, but the others National Salvation Front (NSF) and National Democratic Movement (NDM) has been established during the recent year. There are others as well, both leaders leaving the SPLM/A-IO and SPLM/A. Therefore, the status and complex context are evident.

There illicit crimes appearing as civilians are fleeing, the man-made famine and loss of lives. The lacking structures and trust in the central government, combined with more guns and bullets, than healthy chickens. Therefore, this is land of warlords and not of peacemakers. The land where it easier to pick up the rifle, than discussing the issues and negotiations. The latest deal went down the drain in a massive attack on Juba and a fleeing Dr. Riek Machar to Democratic Republic of Congo, and later in exile in South Africa. There is also a base and important station of SPLM/A-IO in Nairobi, Kenya. As the Kenyan are also involved in the UNMISS mission in South Sudan.

This complex and condition of the state are not only fragile, but hold in the hands of Kiir. President Kiir who is known for getting help and buying support by President Museveni and his UPDF. So why should someone who hands over guns and technical arms to SPLM/A try to negotiate with all of the partners in the crisis? The supplier of the government and trading partner suddenly become friendly to all of the actors inside South Sudan?

I don’t have faith in the motives or initiative from President Museveni, he will together with President Kiir. Find ways of getting the rebels inside corridors or inside valleys where he can blast them into oblivion. He will find the weakness of the enemies of the President Kiir and then use the tools to deceive and try to seem peaceful, but that will back-fire with golden attack that will destroy them. That is what Museveni has done in the past. He first talks, than finds it and than uses the positions to gain more control.

If the bilateral talks between United Nations Security General Antonio Guterres will certify President Museveni to do the peace talk. Than he is naive or trying to forge relations so he looks wise. Neither, has others, if they want Museveni to really help out. Museveni only helps out if he can earn, get money and huge profits on the crisis. He will also use the South Sudanese refugees as pawns to get more donor money to the government. Not really help them out, they are needed pawns for the failing economy in Uganda.

President Museveni shouldn’t be considered or play parts of the negotiation and peace-talks in South Sudan. He is already invested and has been invested in the SPLM/A agenda as he wants the loyalty of President Kiir. In the regard, the international community should look for someone like Kofi Annan or even Thabo Mbeki, to try their magic wand to fix the crisis. President Museveni isn’t fit or the right man. He is only the right man if we want President Salva Kiir Mayardit to be armed to his teeth and annihilate the rebels. Peace.

Reference:

Okello, Dickens H. – ‘Museveni to Mediate South Sudan Conflict; Mobilises $2bn for Refugees’ (12.05.2017) link: https://www.chimpreports.com/museveni-to-mediate-south-sudan-conflict-mobilises-2bn-for-refugees/

South Sudan: Press Statement of H.E. President Salva Kiir Mayardit (12 May 2017)

London Conference on Somalia – Communique (11.05.2017)

 

 

Burundi: Commission Nationale de Dialogue Inter-Burundais – Communique de Presse (12.05.2017)