South Sudan: The National Dialogue meetings in Entebbe under the leadership of Museveni seems like a front!

Entebbe State House 26. May 2017

South Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/ Army (SPLM/A) In-Government (IG), the central leadership of South Sudan and the party of the President. This is the leadership of President Salva Kiir Mayardit and his First Vice-President (FVP) Taban Deng-Gai. They have launched the National Dialogue and the Government facilitated peace negotiations.

This is going on with the chief peacemaker President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, who has had three meetings at the State House in Entebbe in Uganda. That has happen recently with different parts som SPLM/A, but not parts of the SPLM-IO. Other parts of the National Dialogue are lacking the implementation and the needed focus of all stakeholders in the conflict. Since the peace meetings with Museveni and on accord from President Kiir haven’t included the rebels or other militias. Therefore, the SPLM/A meetings in Entebbe is more for show, than initial peace meetings. Unless, these are to reign in all parts of the SPLM/A Organization and keep them loyal to the President.

The South Sudanese meditation of Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) that we’re with the 31st Extraordinary Summit on the crisis in South Sudan, this was a planned meeting and mediation there. A meeting that had a delegation from SPLM/A-IG, but not with the President Kiir. That Festus Mogae who works for Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (JMEC), who monitors the crisis, but has a weak mandate, therefore not possible to reach the states and the violations of the agreements. The same can be said by IGAD, also the African Union is not using their powers or the essential powers to stabilize the republic. As well, as there is no will in the East African Community (EAC), to act upon the troubles and take charge, even as the peacekeepers from AU and United Nations (UN) has had the impact execpt for keeping the Internally Displaced People’s (IDPs).

So with this in mind and the refugee crisis as well from the Republic. The Ugandan counterpart is only follow protocol on accord basis with President Kiir. Since he is not involving anyone, unless Kiir gives way. Therefore, the National Dialogue with the partnership of Museveni isn’t real. The reality of the dialogue is a side-show who buys Kiir time to find ways to solve their outstanding issues. Instead of finding peace, but finding weakness of rebels so he can overpower them.

With the external facilitation is not there and strong enough to control the SPLM/A-IG or have consultation of the rebels. There are enough issues at hand, as the international organizations are feeding the needed with corridors of transport through Sudan. So there are enough issues as hand, that even rebellion and leadership problems inside the SPLM-N in Sudan. That is why you know Museveni only touches this one, because he can see fortunes coming his way later.

Bu the true peace will not come through the National Dialogue, just like the JMEC, IGAD or AU have solved the crisis and civil war between the fractions of South Sudan. It has lasted so long already and nearly been moments of rest. The arms and guns, the instability and the acts of violence continues. The innocent are fleeing and their villages are burning. This is not how it is supposed to be. Peace.

South Sudan: GoU letter to SPLM-IO – “Re: Invitation to Attend SPLM/A Consultation Meeting in Entebbe on the 16th June 2017” (15.06.2017)

South Sudan: SPLM-IO – “Re: SPLM/A Consultation on 16 June 2017 in Entebbe, Uganda” (15.06.2017)

#QatarCrisis: Eritrea-Djibouti territorial dispute over Ras Doumeira flare up as Qatari Peacekeepers leave!

In times of war, the law falls silent.

Silent enim leges inter arma” – Marcus Tullius Cicero

The Merriam Webster defines the Snowball effect like this: “a situation in which one action or event causes many other similar actions or events” (Merriam Webster). At this moment and time, the Qatar diplomatic crisis has hit another level. A level that is unbelievable. To fellow Republics on the Horn of Africa are already in a military dispute over a territory, which they have fought over twice. Last time these nations fought over it was back in 2008.

These Republics are Eritrea and Djibouti. Who are two different states and with different approach to alliances and matters in general. Eritrea has in this crisis hold itself neutral to either Saudi Arabia and the GCC, while not doing anything with it’s affiliation to Qatar. Therefore, the Djibouti did earlier cut their ties with Qatar and with that the Qatari Peacekeepers in the area has left the nation. That Djibouti is important to Ethiopia and their trade is natural as the port and railway goes from Ethiopia to Djibouti. So if Eritrea want to hit two birds with two stones, they go and bang on Djibouti.

So the sudden cutting off Qatar has lead to change of powers and also of military stronghold between Djibouti and Eritrea. As the Eritrean has reacted to and sent the army closer to the disputed area. Both nations has claims to this area. Similar to activity on the Ethiopian border, which has been disputed since the independence of Eritrea. The same seem to be the case on the Djiboutian border and land.

That is why it isn’t surprising that the Eritrean government sends army and attack when the peacekeepers who has secured the territory since the last war in 2008. Certainly, the Asmara government want to take advantage, even if it costly, as the Djibouti sends their reports straight to the African Union and the United Nations Security Council to clear the air of the vicious attack from Eritrea. So the state can be seem as warlords and criminal in their acts on international scale. This is the own making of Eritrea, as they have done in recent years. Gone into war with neighbors without winning and neither getting recognition for their military operations.

There are reports that on Monday the 19th June 2017, the UNSC will take the dispute behind closed doors before finding out solution to the stalemate and current crisis between the nations. This is a long for conflict for the territory and not the first time Eritrea does this. Certainly, the GCC should intervene and help Djibouti, especially since the Republic sided with them. If it wasn’t just play for the gallery and needed display for the GCC. So that they have enough cards in the deck to hopefully get Qatar to give-in. Instead, there isn’t any indication of acts from KSA, Bahrain or United Arab Emirates, as the soldiers and territory is supposed to be ceased.

The GCC and allies have been in communication with neighboring Federation of Somalia to get them to cut ties with Qatar, without any luck, but Djibouti did so and even sent the Qatari peacekeepers home. Therefore, their proof of loyalty deserves to be repaid and that in full. That is if there are any honor in the GCC and their diplomacy in their sphere. So the Eritrean forces are now in the Dumera mountains and Dumera island, which violates the border territory of Djibouti.

Just to make matter worse, this report has also come out recently:

Not trusting his army, Ismael Omar Guelleh sent a request for military support to Ethiopia and China. He wants Ethiopia and China to send military men and equipment to the border with eritrea to impress the latter. On the other side asmara concerned the movements of Ethiopian troops to the conjunction between the three countries, Djibouti, Eritrea and Ethiopia, sent three military miles to its southern border or the region” (Hassan Cher Hared, HCH24.com, 12.06.2017)

And this one which is more on the nerves of Eritrea:

The statement by the retired Ethiopian general is so nerve wracking to all levels of the regime even the aging Eritrean president has wrote a letter to selected world leaders. “Washington feverishly worked at the time, through the State Department, to drive a wedge between the two peoples who have deep historical and strategic ties in order to foment a crisis and micro-manage the affairs of the Horn of Africa,” he is quoted by Eritrean state media to have said” (…) “Isais Afwerki always says it is not Ethiopia that is working against him, but the government of the United States of America. He says this to make himself bigger than life by antagonizing the world super power unsteady of another third world country which happens to be 20 times his tine country. “The ‘border dispute’ was a simple ruse as the boundary between the two countries was defined and determined without any ambiguity in colonial times. But Washington feverishly worked at the time, through the State Department, to drive a wedge between the two peoples who have deep historical and strategic ties in order to foment a crisis and micromanage the affairs of the Horn of Africa,” said the Eritrean president in the letter, according to the Eritrean ministry of information website” (Tigrai Online – ‘The Eritrean regime is nervous about an Ethiopian retired general’ 16.06.2017 link: http://www.tigraionline.com/articles/fear-nervousness-eritrea.html).

Clearly, if these allegations are true, this would give reasons not only for the GCC issues and the interference in the Horn of Africa, that the KSA, Bahrain and UAE have in the region. As they got the Djibouti government to cut ties and make sure they loyalty would be rewarded. While that is happening, the Eritrean have not taken sides, but takes advantage of the Qatari battalions leaving Djibouti. This gave way for a demilitarized zone, which they could come and takeover. This is what happening, but if the state of Eritrea are using the media this way and swaying the public as the reports are. Than it is sick and twisted, but not surprising with the massive overload of the regime of Asmara has on its citizens.

Well, the situation between Djibouti and Eritrea isn’t over, if Djibouti will get help from either their close ally Ethiopia or China, even the GCC, time will tell. Because they should see it is their time to help out, since they we’re taken by surprise, and has now also the advantage that the international community, the African Union and the United Nations Security Council will react to the hostile act of Eritrea. This is not a good look on the matter.

How news and media company describes the recent history!

9TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE CONFLICT RAS DOUMEIRA

There are feelings that even words will never translate. Feelings that we only feel in front of these heroes… Doumeira. In front of these men who face the enemy night and day. Depends on their lives. With only one currency: Homeland or death. Yesterday, no one was insensitive. ” Military, police, gendarmes, Republican Guards, whatever your rank, we all join in your pain to have lost some of your brothers in arms, some of which are still in an unknown position. In this moment of celebration, I fully associate myself with the sorrow felt by their families. We have lost soldiers who have become heroes that neither the history nor the republic of Djibouti will ever forget” (Djib-Live, 09.06.2017).

Let’s end it on a Djiboutian note:

Mahamoud Ali Youssouf statement about the withdrawal of the Qatari troops from Ras Doumeira, the Eritrean troops have move back into the area. “All options are on our table whether its diplomatic or military,” said the Djiboutian Foreign Minister” (Djiboutian, 16.06.2017).

Hopefully it will be sorted out diplomatically and not with arms, even if the Eritrean answered the other one with invasion of border territory. Clearly a violation and a breach of trust between neighbor states. That the Djibouti republic have a good case and also the upper-hand is evident, but if the Eritrean forces will back-down and go back without a fight. That is only a matter of their will retaliate if the Djibouti army returns to their expected territory. Peace.

Djibouti calls on the UNSC after a territorial dispute with Eritrea after Qatarian peacekeepers leave (15.06.2017)

South Sudan: More weapons and ammunition destroyed in Abyei (15.06.2017)

About 25 weapons and more than 470 ammunition confiscated by the troops of UNISFA were destroyed by the Ethiopian Demining Military Platoon (EDMP) and United Nations Mine Action Service (UNMAS).

ABYEI, South Sudan, June 15, 2017 – As part of the continuing efforts to reduce the impact and risk of explosive hazards in Abyei, the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA) on 12 June 2017 conducted another destruction exercise of confiscated weapons and ammunition.

About 25 weapons and more than 470 ammunition confiscated by the troops of UNISFA were destroyed by the Ethiopian Demining Military Platoon (EDMP) and United Nations Mine Action Service (UNMAS).

The weapon and ammunition management (WAM) activity took place after the soldiers of the EDMP completed a training course conducted by experts of UNMAS. The course was designed to provide quality assurance WAM activities, as well as to enhance the knowledge of soldiers and experts to meet international mine action standards.

“Together, we are pursuing the fulfillment of the UNISFA mandate to confiscate and destroy small arms and ammunition in the Abyei Area,” said UNISFA’s acting Head of Mission and Force Commander Major General Tesfay Gidey Hailemichael.

The activity has become the benchmark of the cooperation between the EDMP and UNMAS, for the benefit of peace and security for both the residents and nomad communities in the Abyei area.

The destruction of weapons and incineration of ammunition were witnessed by UNISFA and UNMAS senior leadership namely Mr Alan Doyle, UNISFA Chief of Mission Support and Mr Leon Louw, UNMAS Programme Manager.

Since July 2016, a total of 41 weapons were destroyed and 1817 ammunition were incinerated by UNISFA and UNMAS. The cooperation between UNISFA and UNMAS started in December 2011, following a mine incident in August 2011, which killed four UNISFA peacekeepers and injured seven others. Since UNMAS’ deployment, no UNISFA personnel has fallen victim to either landmines or explosive remnant of war (ERW), and a substantial amount of work was done to rid the Abyei area of the threat of ERW and landmines.

Footage: “We told Theresa May very directly that she was in breach of the Good Friday Agreement” says Sinn Fein President Gerry Adams

There are a possible return of UPDF in South Sudan!

It is ironic as the National Dialogue for Peace is supposed to be implemented and worked upon, as the different stakeholders and parties would be listen too. Even if the SPLM/A-IO would send a team, but not Dr. Riek Machar. Still, the government and their army are meeting new rebellions and armies attacking them. The newest is in solidarity to King Malong, as they are this week started the South Sudan Patriotic Army (SSPA), these are starting their warfare in Northern Bahr Al Ghazal under the command of Agany Abdel-Baqi Ayii Akol. So it is more issues growing and more armies working against the SPLM/A-IG. That means so many are rebelling against President Salva Kiir Mayardit. This is worrying, as the National Dialogue are supposed to start talks and consider the different stakeholders. Instead, it seems more like ploy for the center-stage, so the international donors and such see that the central government tries to create peace. Therefore, the newest leaks of possible actions from Uganda inside in South Sudan. Show’ s the relationship between President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni and President Salva Kiir Mayardit. As the rumors and speculations of another time of redeployment, show’s that the Ugandan’s aren’t there just for peace, but for battling the demons of Kiir. Take a look!

The official allegedly said that South Sudanese President Salva Kiir wants Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni to deploy UPDF’s soldiers to some areas he deems a threat to his government. “There is an active discussion between South Sudan and Uganda over the possibility of Uganda’s military re-intervention in our country. Kiir and Museveni started talking about bringing back UPDF to South Sudan last month [May],” the official reportedly said” (…) “Meanwhile, the source was quoted as saying that Kiir and Museveni were infuriated when some leaders of the African Union, United Nations, and other countries publicly admitted that the August 2015 peace agreement is dead, adding, “Kiir and Taban believe the implementation of the peace agreement is going smoothly.” (…) “President Kiir is only implementing what he wants not the peace. The big problem here is that Taban Deng Gai who is now the First Vice President has no power to change anything Kiir wants and it is a big problem,” the source added. The official described the FVP Gai as ‘a man with no real power’ (Adongo, 2017).

In Juba: Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) offered South Sudan border protection assistance which include a join effort on patrolling Juba-Nimule highway according to Press Secretary of the President, Ateny Wek Ateny. The proposal was made on Friday and more details are yet to be release” (MirayaFM, 11.06.2017).

That the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) and their battalions has been inside South Sudan and was vital part of the SPLA’s victory before the Peace Agreement in 2015. This sophisticated and armed army from Uganda played a big part and also helped the SPLA to secure their upper-hand. Therefore, with this intervention, the UPDF and President Museveni will intervene with more force. There are reports of weapons delivery, ammunition and technical help to the SPLA during this calendar year. So they are just adding and making sure the friendship between the Presidents stay.

President Museveni wants to be the king-maker and he has a loyal ally in President Kiir. This is something he wants to keep, therefore he was the only foreign President in the start of the National Dialogue during May 2017. Which I haven’t had much faith in and with reasons. These reasons are that President Museveni prefers battles he can conquer, not discuss or care about talks. Talks only have value to Museveni if he is the bloody genius and the one with the solving answer.

With this in mind, if the UPDF was re-deployed in South Sudan, it wouldn’t be surprising and shocking. That UPDF with battalions inside South Sudan fighting the rebels, the rebels who has gone against SPLM/A-IG in Juba. So that they would re-enter with battalions as someone says they are plannning. This would differ from the peaceful dialogue the SPLM/A and what President Museveni has said of his engagement in the National Dialogue.

The SPLA has so many fronts and so many rebellions, so if it is true and that the UPDF are going into South Sudan. Than, the President Kiir really has issues and needs help with the troubles at hand. President Kiir seem to need the UPDF and the strength of the Ugandan counterparts in the civil-war in South Sudan. Since he hasn’t had time to build the SPLA and army itself. If the SPLA was winning big and had control of the dire situation, they wouldn’t need the UPDF. Therefore, if this report is true, than the Kiir Government and SPLA are really in trouble with the different obstacles in crisis. And President Museveni would be happy to oblige as his army and his state reserves would not say “no” to the request of being ‘paid in full’ by President Museveni. Peace.

Reference:

Adongo – ‘Uganda plans to re-deploy in South Sudan – reports’ (15.06.2017) link: http://eagle.co.ug/2017/06/15/uganda-plans-to-re-deploy-in-south-sudan-reports.html

USA: Letter from Senator Wyden from Senate Select Committee on Intelligence to DNI Daniel Coates on possible for state to collect communications (15.06.2017)

Uganda: UPF Circular – “Individual Responsibility for Court Awards Arising out of Police Action” (13.06.2017)