Opinion: Why I have a hard time believing Museveni as a mediator in South Sudan!

When it comes to a political disagreement like we have here (South Sudan), we must have a scientific approach to its resolution, should it be resolved by force or other ways? Force should be reserved for the enemy. A disagreement among brothers should not be resolved by force,” President Museveni said” (…) “Some people have been coming to Uganda. Malong [Paul] and others. They come and talk to our people. They want to start a war because they claim Salva Kiir is being controlled by some elders. But should that be cause for war?” Museveni asked” (Kasasira, 2018).

It is okay, that anyone want all the stakeholders, all the opposition militias, all the war-lords to a sit-down and settle differences. That is cool and that is good, if there was a substantial effort for doing so, but a leader like President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni. Is not believable in this grace. He is not the kind of man to this himself. He rather get rid of his enemies and settle the score in his favor. That is what he has done in the past and is known for. He peddles a fake-peace, signs agreements and when the opposition, thinks all is golden. He strikes with fierce force and takes it all. That is Machiavellian leader Museveni is. Instead of having a proper sit-down in Kasese, he burned the Royal Palace and killed guards like their where vermin. So, that the Ugandan President said this, is sort of poetic.

But if we go further down into history, into when he was still a warlord himself and not a 32 year long life President, he was still just mere guerrilla leader, which used force for his own benefit. This was the Nairobi Talks accord and agreement, which he first signed and later dropped like a cold stew.

Mr. Museveni never helped to carry out the peace accord, refusing to take his post as vice chairman of a reconstituted military council or to nominate members to the council” (Rule, 1986). “Mr. Museveni, who signed a peace accord last month in Nairobi with General Okello in an effort to end years of bloodshed, characterized his participation in the peace talks as ”very painful” because he was sitting there ”with the criminals across the table.” He said he agreed to the accord because of pressure from other nations, which he criticized as being more interested in opening roads for trade than in the future of Uganda. He said his followers had made it clear they would not take part in any government in which ”criminals” were involved. The accord was never put into effect, and Mr. Museveni moved on Kampala a month after it was signed” (Rule, 1986).

That is why I have a big trouble with Museveni as a mediator. Not only his army is involved with the SPLA and even has a defense agreement (MoU) with them. Which means he is impartial and is indirectly a trading-partner and weapon-brother of President Salva Mayardit Kiir, which should be a no-no for anyone. However, that is not the worst issue, its a serious breach. But its the knowledge of how he himself was to settle the score and take Kampala in 1986.

In 1985 December, as the Okello Government was finalizing the Cease-Fire’s and putting down arms as the Nairobi Peace Agreement was supposed to do. Museveni armed to his teeth, continued to fight the government army and within a month took Kampala from him. That was the immoral acts and securing his NRA/M the power. Which he haven’t ceased since. So he calls the other parties and the other politicians at the talks in 1985 as criminals, however, he didn’t follow the agreement either. So, he isn’t as noble as he think he is. He used force to get his way, when he needed it. He used force against his brothers to take power and never let it go.

That is why he is the wrong guy to mediate anything. He will kill the ones who steps in his backyard and tries to take his cattle. A man who signed an agreement, but never had plans to follow it. As he wouldn’t be muffled in a coalition, which he couldn’t control. Is a man whose supposed to mediate in a conflict between various parties with different interests and motivations? Nah, you cannot be serious.

President Museveni shouldn’t be the one to trust this with, he will make sure President Kiir gets a head start and gets the weapons he needs to smash the opposition, to smash the rebel outfits and make sure the militias are dying. That is what Museveni does, he doesn’t speak peace. Unless, you leave him in peace in power. Than, you can do whatever you want. Please, remember to him your tax too. Peace.

Reference:

Kasasira, Ridsel – ‘Why Museveni is urging Kiir, opposition to hold talks’ (06.05.2018) link: http://www.monitor.co.ug/SpecialReports/-Museveni-Kiir-opposition-South-Sudan-SPLM-Igad-Machar/688342-4546986-30js91/index.html

Rule, Susan – ‘REBEL SWORN IN AS UGANDA PRESIDENT’ (30.01.1986) link: https://www.nytimes.com/1986/01/30/world/rebel-sworn-in-as-uganda-president.html

Rule, Susan – ‘REBELS IN UGANDA TAKE CONTROL OF CAPITAL, BUT BATTLES CONTINUE’ (26.01.1986) link: https://www.nytimes.com/1986/01/26/world/rebels-in-uganda-take-control-of-capital-but-battles-continue.html

Ethiopia: Dr. Abiy gave the world a false hope, as the TPLF SoE is still oppressing the people!

Since the end of March 2018, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Defence Force (EPRDF) selected their new Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ali. That happens after the end of February, when the Command Post and the Minister of Defense Siraj Fegessa announced another State of Emergency, that was approved by the Parliament early March and means the continued oppression of the protesters in the regions of Amhara and Oromia would continue. As it has, it hasn’t stopped with the selection of Dr. Abiy as the PM. The Command Post and Agazi Squad has continued their raids, the terror and tyranny in the Somali Region, Ogaden, Amhara and Oromia.

James Moody reports: “The Somali region protests erupted on 20 April. The first protests called for the regional government to release 1,500 prisoners, as it had promised to do in February (Africa News, 28 February 2018). In the following days the protests gained momentum, spreading to other towns in the Siti zone, and the scope of the complaints widened – the protests were increasingly against corruption and abuse by the regional president, Abdi Illey. Illey is generally unpopular in Somali province because of his violent deployment of the Somali regional militia, the Liyu Police (ACLED, 12 April 2018) and because of corruption accusations. However, not only is Illey facing challenges from the population, he is also balancing leadership turbulence within his own party. On 24 April, Illey fired the deputy regional president, Abdikarim Igali, fearing that Igali would capitalise on the regional protests to mount a challenge to Illey’s position in the Somali government (Addis Standard, 27 April 2018). This strategy backfired, instead provoking increased protest, particularly from Igali’s home district of Shinile. Illey’s other response to the protests has been to reinforce security by ordering Liyu Police forces back to the regional capital Jijiga. There have been relatively few confrontations between the Liyu police and protesters, but responses to calm the protesters should be cautious to avoid further conflagration” (James Moody – ‘ETHIOPIA: PROTESTS SHIFT FROM OROMIA TO SOMALI PROVINCE’ 05.05.2018, link: https://www.acleddata.com/2018/05/05/ethiopia-protests-shift-from-oromia-to-somali-province/).

So the government hasn’t changed, the new PM makes a shining light with speeches and public gatherings. However, the actions of the EPRDF is still fueled with aggression against the population. That hasn’t changed, not with the new PM. It is more of the same. Just nicer speeches and impression of hope. While the dire needs are still there and the authorities are still acting oblivious world-wide, while locally cracking down on anyone questioning the EPRDF, the TPLF infused government.

For the second time within the three months, there is again violent skirmishes from the authorities in Moyale, which happen last time in February 2018. The reason this time is unknown, there are reports of casualties, but none verified as the gun-shots has appeared, as well as fires in the town. Also that people are fleeing from the town to Kenya. Just like they did in February. Therefore, the government has no direct solution.

We know also that things aren’t getting better with the problems in various regions as the reports on the 3rd May 2018, when the Federal Attorney General ordered that all arrests done by the Command Post in regions, would be taken care of in the states and not federal. Meaning, the local leaderships and their courts will be in-charge of the ones detained while it occurred during the State of Emergency. Also, securing that the TPLF central government isn’t the ones who are keeping people arrested, but the local leadership.

There been little sign of hope, less if you look at the beautiful words, but those words doesn’t bring justice to oppressed, to the ones shackled and detained, the ones afraid of speaking, the ones afraid of gathering and the ones who might lose their lives. Just for standing up against a government, which doesn’t represent them or their kind. They are just representing businesses and foreign interests. Not the public, not the regions and not the unemployed youths or poor peasants, who deserves a government that actually represent them. Peace.

Pan-African Human Rights Defenders Network – Press Release on the Human Rights Violations in the Anglophone Regions of Cameroon (30.04.2018)

Uganda Police Force: Press Statement on the raid of USAFI Mosque in Kisenyi, Kampala (28.04.2018)

NUSOJ: Journalists’ union accuses Somali Ministry of Information for faking sincerity to resolve journalists’ safety crisis (23.04.2018)

South Sudan: President Salva Kiir Mayardiit Condolances Message for Gen. James Ajongo (20.04.2018)

South Sudan Opposition Alliance (SSOA): SSOA Position – IGAD Post Phase II Consultation (14.04.2018)

Joint Communiqué of the African Union and the United Nations on the Peace Process and the Situation in Bangui (12.04.2018)

BANGUI, Central African Republic, April 12, 2018 –

Joint Communiqué of the African Union and the United Nations on the Peace Process and the Situation in Bangui:

We, representatives of the African Union and the United Nations, decided to undertake a joint visit to the Central African Republic (CAR) to express our solidarity and full support to the Central African people and for the peace process in the Central African Republic. We also share a message of complete unity and common resolve of the African Union and the United Nations.

We are pleased in this regard that our visit coincides with the first meeting in Bangui of the International Support Group for CAR since the country’s return to constitutional order. During our visit, we will have the opportunity to talk with the Central African authorities, and have also held talks with President Touadéra.

Having arrived yesterday, we are also concerned about persistent tensions in the PK5 neighbourhood of Bangui. The operations conducted by the Government and MINUSCA on 8 April were aimed at putting an end to the activities of criminal elements that endanger the lives of peaceful citizens, in a neighbourhood that is also the economic hub of Bangui.

In these difficult times, we wish to express our deepest condolences to the families of the victims and we deplore the many wounded, to whom we wish a speedy recovery.

Above all, we wish to emphasize that this operation to restore order and State authority has the sole purpose to protect the people who seek our protection against the criminal elements who oppress them. We want to make it clear that we are determined to act to protect the entire population, across the country.

We strongly deplore and condemn the attempts to instrumentalise this operation, as well as the attacks perpetrated against peacekeepers, about 20 of whom have been wounded, and one who succumbed to his wounds.

We would like to remind you that any attack against peacekeepers is a war crime. Their authors and those who support them will certainly have to answer for their crimes in court.

We also wish to express that an offer of a peaceful settlement had previously been made to the targeted groups, who rejected it.

Finally, we wish to emphasize that, in close coordination with the Government of the Central African Republic, we are ready to use all means available to the international community to create conditions for the restoration of peace in CAR. Among these means, dialogue will be our first action followed by, if necessary, the use of force.

Our joint presence here, in collaboration with the Central African Government, is intended to reaffirm our unambiguous commitment to the African Initiative for Peace and Reconciliation in CAR, which, as the United Nations Security Council has stated, represents the only way forward to exit from crisis.

To the people of Bangui, we also call for calm. We ask them not to be victim to rumours and manipulation. Your authorities are working hard with MINUSCA to restore public order and ensure the protection of all civilian populations, without distinction.

Signed,

Mr Smaïl Chergui
Peace and Security Commissioner of the African Union

Mr. Jean-Pierre Lacroix
Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations

The IGAD Special Envoy for South Sudan Communces Consultations on the Outstanding Issues at HLRF (10.04.2018)

10th April 2018, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: The IGAD Special Envoy for South Sudan, accompanied by representatives of the Office of the Chairperson of the IGAD Council of Ministers, held consultations on 10th April 2018 with representatives of the South Sudanese Civil Society Stakeholders to the HLRF to discuss key outstanding issues at the Forum, including positions of the various parties and possible compromises. The consultations are pursuant to the decisions of the IGAD Council of Ministers at its 61stExtra-Ordinary Session on South Sudan held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia on 26 March 2018 to reconvene the continuation of Phase II of the High-Level Revitalization Forum (HLRF) to conduct consultations and undertake shuttle diplomacy with the parties and stakeholders to the HLRF to narrow the gaps between the Parties, prior to the next reconvening of the Forum.

The consultations focused on the key areas of disagreements on governance and security arrangements at the HLRF. Under governance, the following issues were discussed: the composition of the transitional government; structure of the government; responsibility sharing; number of states and size and composition of the Parliament.

On security arrangements, the following issues were discussed: timeframe for reintegration/unification of forces and approach to the formation of one national army; security for Juba during the Transition; demilitarization of civilian centers; cantonment of forces and Security sector reform or establishment of new security services.

Following extensive deliberations, the representatives of the Civil Society and stakeholders at the HLRF   made recommendations for considerations by the Parties at the HLRF.

Mogadishu Stand-Off: Jawari resigned, but did PM Khaire win?

Today, seems like a small victory for Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire and the silent President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Farmaajo. The Victory is that after weeks and nearly a month of political stand-off between the gentlemen, the Lower House Speaker Mohamed Sheikh Osman Jawari. What is suspicious, is that it is resolved after millions of dollars coming from a Private Plane from United Arab Emirates landed in Mogadishu yesterday. It seems so fitting, that the ones behind the most controversial army base in Somaliland, and also the DP Port in Berbera, Somaliland. Suddenly, comes like Santa Clause to Mogadishu.

24 hours later, a stand-off between two parties are settled, while “investigations” into the money transaction continues. I am not saying people are bought-off, but it is seemingly so. To the RFI English Radio, Minister for Constitutional Affairs Abdurahman Hosh Jibril has said after law, the new Speaker has to be elected within 15 days. This would a sign of change or more control by the President and Prime Minister. It has already been reported that Farmaajo had tried to get Jawari to resign.

The Prime Minister has on the other hand, ordered a full lock-down of Mogadishu, sent Danab Force to the Parliament and also used Bancroft Mercenaries there. Therefore, the ones in the Executive Branch and highest positions has used fear to install the ones they want to have. While we can question the money of UAE yesterday, the UAE themselves saying it was money for salaries of the Somali National Army. Also coming out, is that the Military Base in Puntland from the UAE will be used as a launching pad for military activity in Yemen. Clearly, the internal in-fighting, has external consequences.

This clear interfering in Somali national is clear and they are trying to pay it off and in this instance, it has worked. Since the Speaker Jawari had to resign after long days of stand-offs and misfires. We now know that the Executive Branch is trying to steer the whole Parliament. They not guiding, but trying to steer the wheels directly. This is the initial part of this activity, they don’t want someone whose thinking for themselves as Speaker. They want a loyal puppet for the PM and the President. Why else go this far to get rid of him?

The PM Kheire and President Farmaajo, wouldn’t have this much time and come with such retaliations against a man, if there wasn’t something in it for them. To think otherwise is a bit naive, you don’t send the Danab Force to the Parliament, because you love or care about Parliamentary Procedures. You do it to send a signal and show your power. You don’t use American Mercenaries on the streets around to show grace and mercy, but install even more fear. That is what the PM has done and to think otherwise, is still naive.

That there are more than what reflects in the water, that is clear. What we do know is that there are reasons for this. If it is Soma Oil and their dealings, if it is UAE and their dealings. If it is that the Speaker wouldn’t follow the directions of the PM. That might be true, but what this has shown is how weak the President is and how powerful the PM is. The PM is the power actor behind it all, he was the one who raised the stakes. Also, because the Speaker and his group of MPs put a “no confidence” on the PM as well. Certainly, that will not be tabled. Neither the motion on Jawari.

But, even as this is a small victory for Khaire and Farmaajo, it isn’t really winning anything. They have lost face, their transgression has been proved and their lack of process is proven. Their missions and their acts are now in the open. There aren’t enough American drones to get rid of enemies of the ones who wants power. That should the PM and President know, but seemingly, they don’t.

Jawari is now out, but the struggle for supremacy is far from over. The Lower House still needs someone to lead it and stand behind the protocol and rules of the Parliament. That cannot be swept under the rug, but the PM and President want their man there.

This is not a real victory, it is a loss and that is evident. What is next is inevitable, that someone who can follow orders from the PM and President will become the Speaker. But if that will make the situation better, I doubt it. It will just get more tense and more of the ones who was behind Jawari will feel disfranchised. Unless, the PM tried to buy them-off too. Time will tell. Peace.