Bank of Uganda – Monetary Policy Statement for August 2015 (10.08.2015)

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Press Release (AMISOM): Induction training for new Uganda Police Officers comes to a close (10.08.2015)

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Reports: UPF keeps Lira-town under siege because of Dr. Kizza Besigye rally in town

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Reports from FDC: “The people of Lira have been besieged by the heavy police deployment meant to be used to keep them away from attending Dr. Kizza Besigye’s public rally scheduled for today. The wave is serious and the emperor is scared this time the people are saying we want our people”

According to  Francis Mwijukye:
“The RPC North Kyoga region Aruk Richard Maruk leads police men in all the streets of Lira municipality ahead of todays Dr. Besigyes rally. He is telling people to attend Dr. Besigyes rally on their own risk. That Besigye doesn’t respect the president of Uganda.”

According to Harold Kaija: “Patrols the streets ahead of Today’s rally. This is aimed at scaring away the people. Kigwa Leero”

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Dr. Kizza Besigye detained AGAIN! By the UPF in Kampala today

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3y49ocu4Jk

Is this democracy in action? No sir!  What it is you say? It is bullshit in action. I have written many times and addressed how the NRM regime reacts to their oppisistion. An today again Dr. Kizza Besigye gettting unlawful actions against him. He continues to be strong, while being unjustfully treated by Uganda Police Force. Which serves more as a party police for the NRM! Then doing what their initally supposed to be. Securing peace within the territory of the Government of Uganda. And with the continuation of detaining of oppisistion and the people who isn’t Museveni loyalists. Time to continue to the fight, but you can’t be a man who follows the situation and life of the oppisistion. Without feeling sorry for “the people’s president” Dr. Kizza Besigye! And the world should take notes of it, but seem like they only care when also Amama Mbabazi getting jail-time. Peace.

Ref: RSS/PO/J/J.A.: “Note on the IGAD Proposed Compromise Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan” (letter between the President of South Sudan to the President of Ethiopia) – (03.08.2015)

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Uganda – NRM Electoral Commission Roadmap for Internal Party Elections (06.08.2015)

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Press Release: Finalisation and adoption of the AD HOC Committee Report in Nkandla, South Africa (06.08.2015)

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The parliamentary ad hoc committee set up to consider the Police Minister’s report on the security upgrades at the President’s private residence today finalised and adopted its report – which will be tabled for consideration by the National Assembly. The National Assembly directed the ad hoc committee to conclude and report on its work by 7 August 2015.

The committee expressed satisfaction that the reports of both the police minister and public works complied with the recommendations of the 2014 ad hoc committee. The police minister’s report, in particular, gives a thorough and accurate picture of the state of affairs regarding the upgrades at Nkandla and was helpful during the course of the committee’s in loco inspection. Contrary to the opposition political posturing, the report of the police minister was never intended as a replacement for any other investigative report on Nkandla, but was intended to provide a full account of the implementation of the recommendations of the previous ad hoc committee.

The ad hoc committee found in its report that South Africans were misled about the so-called opulence at the private residence of the President and that there was a gross exaggeration of the scope, scale and cost of the project. Through the corrupt collusion of officials and private contractors, the prices were grossly inflated and the shoddy workmanship as well as poor quality facilities do not correlate with the amount of money paid. There is general consensus that those responsible for deviation from the PFMA should be held accountable and the money must be recovered from those found guilty of these transgressions. We are pleased that efforts are currently underway to ensure that all implicated in corrupt conduct are pursued legally and all the monies are recouped.

The committee has recommended that the portfolio committees on public works, police and the standing committee on intelligence must ensure continuous monitoring of corrective actions to be taken by the relevant national departments. The committee also recommended that the relevant departments and law enforcement authorities ensure the expeditious conclusion of civil, criminal and disciplinary matters.

It is unfortunate that the opposition sprung the so-called minority report, which is similar to the DA document it submitted to the committee when it started. Their claim that they participated in good faith therefore rings hallow, as their report is a proof that their minds were already made up even before the ad hoc committee could start with its business.

The opposition has repeatedly claimed that the ad hoc process was illegal and unconstitutional. This is despite the establishment of the committee process itself being the consequence of the demand by the opposition to Parliament following the release of the police minister’s report.

The minority report of the opposition does not only undermine the thorough work that the committee had undertaken, it also undermines the contribution they made during the process. The report, for instance, contradicts the frank contributions they made following the inspection visit at the private residence of the President.

The EFF’s decision to take the matter relating to the Nkandla security upgrades to the Constitutional Court is a right that any person or party enjoys under our constitution, and we are hopeful that it would bring to an end unnecessary disruptions and sloganeering in the National Assembly. We are hopeful that contesting the matter in Court would do them good, as Courts make judgment on the basis of facts, evidence and cogent legal arguments, not sloganeering, rowdiness and stunts which the EFF has become synonymous with.

We reaffirm the legal and constitutional legitimacy of the ad hoc committee. It would have been a gross dereliction of constitutional duty if Parliament failed to initiate a process to formally consider the report of such national importance.

ISSUED BY THE OFFICE OF THE ANC CHIEF WHIP

 

Uganda’s Medium Term Debt Management Strategy for FY 2015/2015 – FY 2019/2020: What is it all about?

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Here you will see what strategies and plans the Government of Uganda has made for their loans and debts. This is about how the Government will deal with it and how it can be done. The numbers tell what they can expect if they pick the certain ways of dealing with it. It shows what can happen and the shock scenarios are important.

This should be seen as important to follow especially with the growing debt and the rates that come with that. Therefore it will be something that should be monitored. From the sustainability of the ratio according the GDP should be something that also brings fear. Especially since this will have general effect on how the general economy will be hit with the down payments and strain the basic budgets of the government. There its a viable thing that should be well known by people, because this will have big importance until FY 2019/2020

“The Uganda Vision 2040 aspires to transform Uganda into a modern and prosperous society within 30 years through provision of adequate infrastructure, development of agriculture, human resources and services sectors, enlargement of markets, strengthening of the private sector and through industrialization” (…) “Implementation of the Uganda 2040 Vision will require substantial resources that will partly be garnered through the domestic and international borrowing. To ensure that our debt remain sustainable, such borrowing has to be carried out through a properly formulated Medium Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS)” (MTDS, P: 4, 2015).

“The key aim for the MTDS2015 is to ascertain the cost and risk trade-off of financing the medium term fiscal deficit through borrowing while remaining mindful of our debt sustainability” (…) “To meet Government’s financing requirements at the minimum cost, subject to a prudent degree of risk; (ii) to ensure that the level of public debt remains sustainable, both in the medium and long term horizon while being mindful of future generations; and (iii) to promote the development of the domestic financial market (MTDS, P: 6, 2015).

Strategies:

  1. Traditional post debt relief approach of prioritizing concessional financing.
  2. A debut Euro-Bond: The Sovereign Bond Issuance which risks the cost and the trade-off of the International-Market and financing alternative.
  3. Non-Concessional borrowing and meeting with bilateral with commercial creditors negotiations.
  4. Reliance on Domestic-Financing establishing the cost and risk trade-offs, which risk less since it’s from the Domestic-Financial-Market.

(MTDS, P: 6-7, 2015).

Cost & Risk Debt Uganda

External Debt Stock:

From FY2006/2007 it was Domestic Debt and Outstanding(DoD) was US$1.47 billion. And in FY 2013/2014 had risen to US$4.3 billion (MTDS, P: 13, 2015).

External Debt Stock Uganda

Domestic Debt Stock:

Domestic Debt Stock

Refinancing:

External debt maturity for the ATM (Average Time for Maturity) was 18.9 Years. The plan is setting that the in 2.3 years will the ATM be 11.8 years.

Public Debt Maturity Profile under REFINANCING

Currencies:

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Aggregrate Medium Term Debt Strategy:

The outlook for the 5.3% in FY 2014/2015 and is looking to reach 5.8% in FY 2015/2016. The plan forward is to attain an average 6.3% for the fiscal framework (MTDS, P: 17, 2015).

Selected Medium Term P18

Government expenditure is on an average to be 20.9% of the GDP for the FY 2014/2015. In the 2015/2016 it is 21.7% of the GDP. The main expenditure for the budget is the infrastructure projects like the upgrading of Entebbe International Airport, Hydro Power projects and Albertine Regional Airport. The total cost for the projects is US$7.0 Billion. There is set to be 5% target for the inflation rate and the exchange rate is set for 12.1% in FY 2015/2016 and average for 2.4% the rest of the years for the medium term (MTDS P: 17-18).

Stylized Financing Instruments:

Two instruments:

i: International Development Association (IDA) has the interest 0.75% for the maturity of 38 years.

ii: African Development Fund (ADF) has the interest 0.75% with a maturity of 40 years.

iv: The concessional is with fixed rate loans with 23 years maturity and 6 year grace period. These terms comes from IDA-Blend, Kuwait Fund, Abu Dhabi Fund, UK-Export Credit Guarantee.

v: The fixed rate instrument on the Euro Bond which is priced on a ten-years US-Treasury interest rate.

vii: With Pure commercial loans is a instruments with a 7 years of maturity and with a 3 years grace period.

viii: One T-Bills is a domestic market debt instrument that has a maturity of 91 days, 181 days,  and 364 days.

ix: Four T-Bonds is a domestic market debt instrument that has a maturity of 2, 5, 10 and 15 years.

(MTDS, P: 18-21, 2015).

Stylized Financing Strategy P22

Four scenarios for the Market:

First Scenario: The first thing is possible currency depreciation – is that in the FY 2015/2016 can end up with 30% depreciation and will have to work to sustain that through to 2019/2020.

Second Scenario: A sharp off increase in domestic rates for 2015/2016 and at the Interest Rate will follow the baseline of the Foreign Currency.

Third Scenario: Domestic Interest Rate still set to be baseline assumption that we’re set. And that the denomination on the Foreign Currency following the instruments set for it.

Fourth Scenario: That the Decapitation of the UGX towards the US Dollar in the amount of 15%, that can lead to a shock in the domestic yield a curve for the 2015/2016.

(MTDS, P: 23, 2015).

Analysis of the strategies:

That the total debt-to-GDP from the current level of 28.6% by the end of June 2014, if the end of the time it might end up with 50% level by 2020. This is because of substantial projected increases the fiscal deficit. With the worst strategy the interest rate can go from 1.4% in June 2014 to become 4% in 2020 (MTDS, P: 24, 2015).

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Hope you have found it interesting and learn something of the Government of Uganda planning of dealing with their debt. And how they see the future for their economy. Then what kind of strategies and scenario’s that could appear and how they will appear together. The Financial Years that are ahead and how the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development thinks of their economy. Hope it give you something and also a little feeling about how the economy might progress.

Peace.

Reference:

Republic of Uganda/Directorate of Debt & Cash Management – Ministry of Financing, Planning & Economic Development: ‘Medium Term Debt  Management Strategy’ (MTDS): 2015/2016 -2019/2020 (April 2015).

Press Release: On the assassination attempt on Mr. Pierre-Claver Mbonimpa (05.08.2015)

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The Special Rapporteur on Human Rights Defenders in Africa of the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights (the Special Rapporteur), Mrs. Reine Alapini-Gansou, expresses deep concern at the assassination attempt on the President of the Association for the Protection of Human Rights and Detained Persons in Burundi (A.PRO.DH), Mr. Pierre-Claver Mbonimpa on Monday, 3 August 2015 in Burundi.

The Special Rapporteur strongly condemns this situation and expresses concern about the health condition of this human rights defender.

She expresses further concern for the safety of Mr. Mbonimpa and that of human rights defenders in the Republic of Burundi, particularly in the current context of increased violence since the announcement of the candidacy of President Pierre Nkurunziza for the 2015 presidential elections, followed by his re-election.

The Special Rapporteur reminds the Government of the Republic of Burundi of its commitments under international and regional human rights protection instruments, in particular, the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights and specifically, its articles 1, 4 and 5.

The Special Rapporteur strongly urges the relevant authorities of the Republic of Burundi to take immediate measures to ensure that Mr. Pierre Claver Mponimpa receives proper emergency medical care in a safe environment.

She also urges the relevant authorities to take the necessary measures to investigate and prosecute the perpetrators of this serious violation of human rights.

The Special Rapporteur further calls upon the Burundian authorities to take appropriate action to avoid the occurrence of other attacks and violations of the rights of human rights defenders.

Finally, the Special Rapporteur emphasizes the need for Burundian authorities to take all necessary measures to comply with the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights and other relevant human rights instruments ratified by the Republic of Burundi.