Brexit: Dublin (the Irish) now have the upper-hand over London (the British) in the negotiations!

Today, it’s been proven by statements between Donald Tusk and Leo Varadkar that Theresa May and Arlene Foster has a hurdle to pass. Not only respecting the Good Friday Agreement and that provisions. But also now the center stage isn’t in London as the Tories-DUP Government have claimed, they are starting to swim alone and struggling to show their transparent negotiations with the European Union (EU). Dublin have now the upper-hand and Tusk has told world. That is new world-order for London, who has in the past muffled a lot with the Irish. Therefore, historical line of the British over the Irish is now fad and the European Union is sanctioning it.

Donald Tusk Statement to the Irish:

It is no secret that we discussed Brexit with a special focus on the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. I came to Dublin to reassure the Taoiseach and all the Irish people that the EU is fully behind you and your request that there should be no hard border on the island of Ireland after Brexit. The Irish request is the EU’s request. Or as the Irish proverb goes: “Ni neart go cur le cheile” (There is no strength without unity)” (Tusk, 2017).

Arlene Foster message to the Tories:

Amid reports that Dublin and London could be close to a deal that would avoid a “hard border”, Ms Foster went on the offensive to insist that she will not accept a new border “in the Irish Sea”” (…) “Ms Foster said that Ms May already “has been categorical” in accepting the DUP requirement. “Her Majesty’s government have a clear understanding that the DUP will not countenance any arrangement that could lead to a new Border being created in the Irish Sea,” she said” (Moriarty, 2017).

Arlene Foster has leverage concerning the Tories-DUP Agreement, but the United Kingdom also has the Good Friday Agreement and also negotiations with the European Union. When concerning Irish border and trade, the veto and power-player is now the Irish government. It is not in London and the with the negotiation team of the Tories-DUP to Brussels. They are even salvaging as it is.

Brexit negotiations are now officially on Irish terms, especially their wishes for the borders. If the Irish wants soft or hard borders, even if they have to make it in a way where still the United Kingdom is an officially third country and with those regulatory borders. Still, the can be specialized agreements between the Irish and the UK. That depends on if the Northern Irish and the London can accept the boundaries and the tariffs. Also the possible movement between them as well.

It will now depend on Dublin, not London. Irish has the upper-hand in the negotiations and the Tories-DUP knows this. The Irish can veto if they don’t agree with negotiated agreements that has been made in Brussels. Clearly, Foster and May must feel the pain. As they are not as high and mighty. They actually have to make sure the Irish feel respected and have their way. If not, the Irish can stifle the process and make it harder for London. Secondly, London have to accept it, since the Irish can veto. Peace.

Reference:

Moriarty, Gerry – ‘Arlene Foster: DUP will not accept Brexit border in Irish Sea’ (30.11.2017) link: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/arlene-foster-dup-will-not-accept-brexit-border-in-irish-sea-1.3311275

Tusk, Donald – ‘Remarks by President Donald Tusk after his meeting with Taoiseach Leo Varadkar’ (01.12.2017) link: http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/12/01/remarks-by-president-donald-tusk-after-his-meeting-with-taoiseach-leo-varadkar/#

Brexit: Lord Callanan spilled the beans, the Tories will keep the public in the dark!

Today, Lord Callanan or Martin John Callanan, who is the Minister of State within the Department for Exiting the European Union (DexEU) has finally answered an important question within the House of Lords. It is essential that the United Kingdom are transparent and open about the Brexit Process, so that the citizens knows what they can get in the future and what will be bargain with European Union. As the negotiations are happening during the next two years. It is official now that the Conservative Party (Tories) and Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) are planning to keep the people and the representatives in the dark. That is their mission to not tell about possible consequences or affects of possible agreements with the European Union. That is initially what Lord Callanan did today. Its weird that it happens in a democracy and with a country that has such a history. But clearly, the Tories prefer dictatorship and work with impunity, instead of being transparent and having an open government to their citizens. That is proven with this sorts of acts and reasoning.

Question asked by Lord Stoddart of Swindon on the 13th November 2017:

To ask Her Majesty’s Government whether they have any plans to publish a document setting out the political and economic benefits to the UK of leaving the EU” (Lord Stoddart, 13.11.2017).

Answer by Lord Callanan on the 23rd November 2017:

The people voted to leave the EU in a referendum which Parliament voted to hold. A clear majority of the electorate voted to leave the EU and we will respect the will of the British people. Since then the Government has been undertaking rigorous and extensive analysis work to support our exit negotiations, to define our future partnership with the EU, and to inform our understanding of how EU exit will affect the UK’s domestic policies and frameworks. This includes a full suite of economic analysis, as you would expect from a responsible Government. This means looking at 58 sectors as well as cross-cutting regulatory, economic and social issues to help inform our negotiation positions. We have been clear that we recognise Parliament’s rights relating to the publication of documents. However, ministers face conflicting responsibilities – such as a clear obligation not to disclose information when doing so would not be in the public interest. And Parliament has previously voted not to release information that would be prejudicial to our negotiating position” (Lord Callanan, 23.11.2017).

We now know that the Brexit Assessment Reports will not surface, unless they are leaked by disgruntled employees within the Department. Most likely not as the Minister David Davis and Lord Callanan are keeping the issues to their chest. Not dropping any possible damaging reports or even positive changes from leaving the Union. The Tories are happy and content with leaving people in darkness. Leaving the union without transparency and telling the truth. We know that they are trying to discourage and even showing display of disregard of public scrutiny, as they cannot stomach to explain their assessments with the public. We can wonder what is their strategy, if that even exists.

The British people should be worried about this sort of actions. That the Tories doesn’t care that the public don’t know or have no idea of the impact of Brexit. Because the government wont let them see it or read about it. It will be dossiers and rumors, but no real assessment of the possible changes for all industries and society in general. If it is about toxic waste or financial transactions. We don’t know how that will be impacted by the Brexit. That is the result. The Government are not shedding light and hoping people enjoy being in darkness, with no enlightenment and no true numbers of possible impact. That is what is worrying. It is also a sad day for the British Democracy and British people, who voted for it, but will not know until it happens. What it will mean for them and their borders. Not that the Leavers Campaign told them anything of profound message on how it would be.

We know now for sure, the Tories-DUP government are not transparent, not honest and not as expected. It is a disgrace and this proves that the troubles ahead are bigger, than the Tories would like. Also that the affect of the Brexit might be more damaging, than what they want the public to know. Since they are hiding the facts and the assessments. They cannot let the public see it or their representatives, because the public might be shocked and awed by the results of it all. That is why they are silent and not telling it as it is. Peace.

Opinion: I don’t expect Dictators to fall, unless serious changes befall on them!

After Zimbabwe, people have started to blaze the horns and expecting other dictators to fall. Well, I am humbly saying, I hope so, but don’t expect so. Unless, there are vital changes, unless they lose their support and their weapons behind them. If the support and armies are not behind them, than the Robert Mugabe story can be repeated elsewhere. But it will be different from state to state, from president to president. As each President has built around a stronger or weaker system of orders, strength of institutions and also personal cult around themselves. We also know they are using their myths and their state media to serve their interests.

President’s that I will honor with a mention are Joseph Kabila, Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, Pierre Nkurunziza, Faure Gnassingbe, Hailemariam Desalegn, Isias Afwerki, Omar Al-Bashir, Idriss Deby, Paul Biya, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasango, Mahamadou Issoufou, Paul Kagame and Ismaïl Omar Guelleh. These are a list of honorable mentions, there several more that could be put on a list, but these was the first to mention, if feel someone is left behind. Please leave that in the comments down below(I know that sounds like a Youtuber, but I had to take inspiration from somewhere).

All of these men in their republics knows that they use power and security organizations to quell, silence and oppress their opposition. They are keeping control of the state reserves and has their party as filled of loyalists and cronies. All of this states are militarized, there is state controlled media and has various of different rules. They are strict and controlling from the state houses and the freedom in these states are limited. The state and business are usually connected with the President and his family. If not there are cronies who also have business and fortunes. So the dictators are for the moment having control and making sure the people is not uprising.

What we can know is that if these dictators take it to far and the fear for the repercussion from the state. So as long as the public and opposition are detained for arbitrary arrests and citizens hurt after demonstrations. While the state reserves and donor funds are eaten by the elite, while the countries are kept poor. As long as the republic’s are poor, than they still need more foreign donors and supply. So it is good for the dictators to keep their nations poor, as the Western and Multi-National Organization can continue to supply them with non-binding funds. That they are free to use on military and one themselves, instead of building institutions and good governance, it is all controlled by the one man on top and his loyal subjects around.

This is well known and for different reasons, these men should always worry about their decisions and their capacity to rule. Nothing last for ever. There will be some who might want to take their place and replace them. Someone will always be opposition and fight for democratic values, but sooner or later they will succeed. It is just a matter of how and how long it takes.

They are all based on strong military control, even minor specialized groups who are like Presidential Guards/Republican Guards or Special Forces. These are controlled usually by either relations or trusted generals, who are loyal not to turn against the President. The Presidents promotes and demotes leaders inside their armies often, the same in the police force/service to compensate and also to make sure the old guard of warrior and soldiers who fought for the President. Will not be seen as a threat or have power to ever topple him. That is why they are trying to distance themselves from the ones who brought them to power, because they will know their inner-tactics; that is why the stalwarts and historicals are more public personas, but not people of power. Even if they did have so in past.

That is done to secure the role and secure the commander-in-chief, even the President always need the historical battles and origin story to keep himself relevant and prove his place. He don’t needs ones who fought with him and his cause. They will just ask for checks- and balances on the promises made in liberation and in the battles against previous oppressors. That is why they are not entangled with these, unless they give them phony medals and grant money, to hopefully silence them.

Still, with all the protocol and strength of the army, they are still vulnerable as they know this too. That why they are calculating and trying to find out the next person who wants their role and their positions. Which is why there are changes in their cabinets, Vice-Presidents and Prime Ministers. Until they find persons and people they trust to not ambitions to overpower them. Also, they want to stop other MPs and other voices to install hope in the population and to create popularity that is bigger then their personal cult and their teachings.

However, there are ways to bring them down by actually not fearing the state security organizations, waiting for the President to act swiftly without feeling the tensions within his own party. Like President Robert Mugabe did recently. If not actually know you have lost all legitimacy in recent elections, but not willing to step down like Yayha Jammeh. That was ECOWAS and Senegal who intervened on behalf of the newly elected President. Which was the reason for the dictator ending in Exile recently.

Therefore, we have to hope for leaders who have capacity to capture the pulse of the people who are oppressed, of the ones who are marginalized and the ones who are captured by the state. Since the dictatorships doesn’t give up easy, unless there is no escape. History has learned us that and therefore, the lesson needs to be learned. We in our time cannot give in and accept that the liberty, freedom and government are taken by one elite and one ruler.

Certainly, it will not be easy, the fight against oppressors will cost and take time. That is proven time in and time out. The same will happen here, but with their aging and their lack of control. Their trust in family members and trying to create family dynasties. They might fall like Mugabe. Even if some are sons of former presidents. Doesn’t mean they can continue owning the title and running the state. It is proven that is not accepted and that is all within reason. This is what happen in Zimbabwe and we understand if similar events transpire elsewhere.

In the end it is all up to the public for change, the public reactions and their demonstrations, boycotts and their inner works to dismantle the oppressive dictatorship. Often the international community and international counterparts will not intervene as they wants mineral resources and other commodities for cheap; and as long one partner can be bribed, the workers and resources don’t need to paid-in-full or proper. This prospers foreign investments and multi-national companies. This is not well-spoken of, but should be revealed, as it is so often shady dealings with resources sold or land to investors from these dictators. They are funding the state and military, that together with aid are keeping these regimes afloat.

With all this in mind, we have to continue the struggle against these men that are keeping people hostage and taking away freedom and liberty, freedom to assembly and to be activists. They are licensing and authorizing businesses and if people are allowed to have parties and civil society organizations. This are all in different ways, the same with the media and other public ways of sharing information. These are often controlled like all else are in society and in the republic.

We can just wonder if we let this repeat itself, let them continue to oppress and letting these multi-national corporations earn on this forms of government. If we can accept that aid and multi-national organizations keeping budgets and keeping them as leaders, because if these leaders would struggle more economically, more loyalists and more cronies would actually deflect quicker. Also, that if the economy struggle and the security organizations are not paid-off. They could instead of turning their weapons against the public, they could turn against the government/regime. So there are many ways together with public uprising that is needed to topple these dictatorships. Peace.

Tories: Resignation Letter of Hon. Priti Patel MP as the Secretary for International Development (08.11.2017)

Parlament de Catalunya: Have now declared them a Catalan Republic independent from Spain! (27.10.2017)

Brexit: Sir Vincent Cable letter to David Davis on “his extraordinary claim I should sack Lib Dem MEP Cathrine Bearder for doing her job” (13.10.2017)

Post-Brexit Costumes Implications could be dire for the UK, as revealed in Irish Parliament Draft Report of September 2017!

The Republic of Ireland Parliament has started their works and their initial searching for solutions Post-Brexit. This September Draft report from the Irish Parliament is more structured and more explained than any of the ones offered the public from the United Kingdom counterparts. The Irish government clearly are open within their troubles and possible hurdles in the new state between Republic of Ireland as a Member State in the European Union and United Kingdom on the outside. This will significantly change the prospects of trade, movements of goods and direct costumes operations within Ireland and in the United Kingdom. The Brexit agreement between the EU and UK will be vital to the borders and trade between the neighbor states.

Out of the report, this is for me, the vital quotes, that significantly says what it means for both parties. They are really explaining clearly the impact and being direct in the problems that are coming with Brexit. Something certainly the British should look into, if they wants to have good trade and movement of goods to and from Ireland. This will not happen as it is done today, since the United Kingdom will need new regulations and new sorts of security checks. Since they are not a member state and in the new system need to follow other protocols of movement than of today.

Brexit implication:

There are two distinct processes in the e-manifest procedure, depending on whether the goods are non-union or union goods. Currently goods coming from the UK are union goods and, while a manifest is required for the enforcement of national prohibitions and restrictions, there are no systematic controls imposed on these goods. However, post Brexit these goods will be non-union goods and as a result the manifest will be fully processed and the goods in question will not be released until all customs formalities have been completed” (Oireacthas, P: 8, 2017).

Goods to the UK:

Goods to be exported to the UK will need to be presented to customs at the customs office of exit11 and be made available for examination if required. This extra layer of formalities for movements that are currently intra-union movements will not only place a considerable administrative burden on traders it will also have a negative impact on trade flows and delay the release of goods” (Oireacthas, P: 10, 2017).

Goods passing through UK:

Under transit, it is possible for goods to proceed directly to an inland location before customs formalities need to be completed. Where a trader wishes to move goods arriving from or through the UK directly to their premises they will need to be approved as an authorised consignee and also have the appropriate premises approved as a Temporary Storage facility as the goods will have the status of non-union goods. Where traders are not approved as authorised consignees then those goods declared for the transit procedure would be required to be presented at the declared customs office of destination for control purposes and in order to end the transit procedure. This in effect would require that current Revenue offices not assigned the function of a customs office of destination in NCTS would need to be assigned that status and be in a position to provide suitable examination facilities where necessary controls can be performed. Providing suitable facilities and associated human resources may prove difficult for Revenue” (Oireacthas, P: 13-14, 2017).

If this isn’t seen as important for the British, the United Kingdom and their possible trading operations with Ireland and the whole European Union. Than they better come up with solutions. If not they have to trade Yorkshire Tea with themselves and Tetley can be sold just within the Kingdom. Since it will be expensive with routine checks and costumes arrangements to fix the new hurdles for people who orders their stocks into their shops. They rather pick up another brand with similar flavor of their tea, than ordering the famous British tea suppliers. Why take Lipton, when you can order a French Tea without any problems and time consuming costumes and tax-operation. This is what that can appear, as well as sudden extra time in storage and other new need of expenses. That will mean the costumers will have to pay the extra prices for the same product, as well as pay for the added time it takes before the products hit the market.

This is just between Ireland and the United Kingdom. If you we’re too consider all member states of the Union, you know the issue becomes more dire for the United Kingdom. That these issues will hit their trading partners, the producers and the ones that produced and exported products for decades. Will be hit or have to become more expensive abroad, this may even make the consumers in outside markets pick other products than the British. Why pay more for British, when the French has a similar tasting product? Why buy an extra expensive British Cheese, when the Belgian one taste as good?

So if the Costumes and added taxes between UK and EU Members States grows, that will make the products less worth as it will be more luxurious and less of common product in the shelves. Also, that the time consuming import together with the cost of transit, manifests and checks of the products. Will also hurt the bottom-line and the profitability of imports from British producers. This should worry all producers and factory made product-lines that is made for exports. The Irish government has clearly outlined the issues and are striking factors for simple movement of goods between the states. It might not become so hard, but the possibility is still there. Peace.

Reference:

Oireacthas – ‘Brexit and the consequences for Irish Customs – DRAFT’ (September 2017)

UK Statistics Authority Chairman Sir David Norgrove letter to Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson: “On his clear misuse of statistics” (17.09.2017)

Brexit: The Tories-DUP will continue to subdue the nation with no publications on their negotiations!

If you are confused about what is at stake or in consideration from the United Kingdom government or the Conservative Party and Democratic Unionist Party (Tories-DUP) government, than it is now by intent. Since, the latest revelation from the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union Robin Walker, have a few brilliantly to a few MPs where he described their level of transparency and accountability, which is far by none! They do not want the world to know, if anyone knows or knew what the plan was for the Tories when they left the European Union. It is amazing, that the United Kingdom are playing at this level. That they have so little touch and wish to inform own citizens of their outcome and possible plan of discontinuing their role as a Member State.

Mr. David Lammy asked on the 5th September:

“To ask the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, what plans his Department has to publish studies into the effect of the UK leaving the EU on different sectors of the UK economy” (Parliament.uk, 13.09.2017).

Today, Robin Walker answered it by:

“It is not standard practice to provide an ongoing commentary on internal analytical work that is being carried out within government. The Government’s plan for leaving the EU has been discussed at length, and Parliament will have a say on the final deal we achieve with the European Union by putting that deal to a vote in both Houses before it comes into force. But as Parliament has also agreed, we will not publish anything that would undermine our ability to negotiate the best deal for the UK” (Parliament.uk, 13.09.2017).

Mr. John Trickett asked on the 5th September:

“To ask the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, how many civil servants have been sent to Brussels at any point to engage in the detail of the Brexit negotiation talks; and how many of these have been seconded from outside the Government” (Parliament.uk, 13.09.2017).

Today, Robin Walker answered it by:

“We have released information on the UK’s senior negotiating team on Gov.uk. As an indication of the number of civil servants in attendance at negotiations in Brussels, at the second round we had over 90 civil servants in attendance, and for the third round, over 100. The total number of staff will vary from round to round as we deploy the negotiating team best able to work on the issues under negotiation. We are drawing together expertise from a wide range of departments where there is specific relevant knowledge on the issues to be negotiated” (…) “I can confirm that of the Department for Exiting the European Union staff who attended the negotiations in July and August, none were seconded from outside of Government. We do not hold information on the contractual arrangements of individuals from other Government Departments” (Parliament.uk, 13.09.2017).

These answers are clearly not enlightening, but are showing the contempt of the Parliament, the Representatives and the citizens as a whole, Brexit negotiators wish to work in secrecy and in peace, without interference, as the knowledge of their plans are hidden in the shadows and not in the open. It is weird, it is strange that the United Kingdom does it like this. That the Brexit team and the ones working for the government want to hold it like a corporate secret. Instead of being open and transparent. Therefore, if the British does not trust their government act in their interests. I understand, because there is nothing to trust. The Tories-DUP government are holding them in contempt and not caring for the people need to know what they are up too. This is not an easy food run, if you bring takeaway Chinese or a Pizza!

This is the ending of a long term Membership Status and all the dozens of agreements that has been made, together with law and protocol for trading and travelling, that has to be reissued and reassured to secure both Unions. Clearly, the Tories and their Secretary thinks it is okay to not publish information, since it can damage their cause. Nevertheless, their cause of action should be in public, since it is in public interest. So if Banks and Industry moves now, they are justified, they do not know their terms for staying behind. London Financial Centre could just move to Dublin or Frankfurt. There the big-multinational financial institutions could secure new benefits within the Euro-Zone. Not be dependent on random guesses of negotiations of the Tories-DUP in Brussels.

That is what can be stated today, that the Brexit department plans to keep it in secret and do not want to be transparent. They want to be secret and neglect their duty to serve the people and their interests. The businesses has all rights to move shop, since if it is all done in secrecy, who will benefit and what will be the end-game? Who knows, right?

Robin Walker, has opened the eyes of hopefully many, if not the Brexit negotiations will be rockier, since the people and corporations cannot trust their government. They have no rights to now, when they do not publish needed public information. Tories-DUP are playing hide-and-seek. We do not know if their hidden or if they are seeking. They could do both. What we do know, is that they do this for a purpose, and that they do not trust the public will to accept their craft, their framework and the possible arrangements they are creating after the Membership with the European Union. Peace

Yet another Future Partnership report on Brexit: The UK Gov. wants similar research collaboration as of today!

The newest report on Research Collaboration between United Kingdom and the European Union, as the withdrawal from the EU will lead to chances in science and research in the United Kingdom. The Tories Government are still within the wishful thinking. Their paradigm is clearly the softest of the soft Brexits. So soft, that butter isn’t soft enough.

Brexit appeal must really be dwindling since most of the Future Partnership Papers has been softball and easy road into withdrawal. The EU will clearly make this harder and more expensive. United Kingdom government wants clearly more of the same. It is expected to be dialogue and negotiations between the partners. Here is some parts of the Reports!

It is the UK’s ambition to build on its uniquely close relationship with the EU, so that collaboration on science and innovation is not only maintained, but strengthened. Therefore, as part of the new, deep and special partnership, the UK will seek an ambitious science and innovation agreement with the EU that will support and promote science and innovation across Europe both now and in the future” (HM Government, P: 7, 2017).

EU programmes have helped foster European scientific collaboration and the UK has been a key contributor to their success. The UK remains a full member of the EU and will be subject to all rights and obligations set out in the Treaties and under EU law, including the principle of sincere cooperation, until it leaves the EU. In that context, and looking ahead to a strong future relationship, both the UK and the European Commission have been clear that they expect the fair treatment of UK researchers and firms. The UK and EU should also work together to provide continuity of collaborative relationships” (HM Government, P: 9, 2017).

The Commission is planning a European Defence Research Programme in the next Multiannual Financial Framework, which is expected to invest €500 million per year in industry and academia from participating countries. To prepare for this, a three-year Action was launched in 2017 and the UK has been instrumental in defining its work programme. The UK would welcome dialogue with the EU and its Member States on the future of this programme and terms for non-EU involvement, noting that Norway will have third-party association in this preparatory phase” (HM Government, P: 13, 2017).

The UK wants to continue playing a major role in creating a brighter future for all European citizens by strengthening collaboration with European partners in science and innovation” (…) “To this end, the UK will seek to agree a far-reaching science and innovation agreement with the EU that establishes a framework for future collaboration. There are a range of existing precedents for collaboration that the UK and the EU can build on, but our uniquely close relationship means there may be merit in designing a more ambitious agreement. The UK hopes to have a full and open discussion with the EU about all of these options as part of the negotiations on our future partnership” (HM Government, P: 16, 2017).

I am not surprised by this Future Partnership Report, it is one of many now. The ones dropped in August was similar, but different topics. United Kingdom wants all of the options on the table and still want close relationship, but the UK will be a non-Member-State. They are focusing on the special bond between the Norwegian and the EU, but that means the UK must work hard to get that relationship. Since the EU will clearly not just give way to UK. Though, the Future Papers are lots of dreams.

So another daydream is done, Brexit Minister David Davis and others in the Tories Government, surely needs help and also should know that EU will not trade-off anything easy. Brexit will not be easy and their papers prove it. As they are having extra-terrestrial and alien belief about their negotiations and their deal-making with the EU. Peace.

Reference:

HM Government – ‘Collaboration on science and innovation – A FUTURE PARTNERSHIP PAPER’ (06.09.2017)