Bukimbiri County By-Election: The NRM is ready to repeat what they did in Soroti East…

We’re very ready to gain that victory in all the remaining by-elections in Gogonyo, and Bukimbiri. Our teams are already on the ground and we hope to repeat what we did in Soroti,” NRM party EC boss, Dr. Tanga Odoi said” (The New Vision, 05.08.2022).

The ones that believes the two by-elections scheduled for 11th August 2022 will be free and fair. Well, I hate to say it in advance: “It will not be”. Because, the National Resistance Movement are already prepared and Dr. Tanga Odoi know what went down in the Soroti East By-Election. So, the truth is in those words and the public shouldn’t be hoodwinked.

The Prime Minister Nabbanja flew in with a helicopter to campaign together with other high ranking officials who is in the area. They are clearly ensuring the path of victory and having the manpower to “ensure victory”. If that being Dombo or NRM operatives on the ground. These will do whatever it takes and that shows with how the NRM has invested in the PM to be there.

Here are some more important statements into the race, which we will be run like Soroti East…

The PM:

PM Robinah Nabbanja, pitches camp in Kisoro to campaign for NRM flag bearer, Eddie Kwizera Wa-gahungu ahead of this week’s Bukimbiri by-election. Nabbanja rallied the locals to support Kwizera, if promises and pledges of gov’t are to be fulfilled” (91.2 Crooze FM, 08.08.2022).

Joint Candidacy of the Opposition:

Kampala, Uganda: The National Unity Platform (NUP) party has withdrawn its candidate in the Bukimbiri county by-election, in order to jointly support James Owebeyi, a candidate for the Forum for Democratic Change-FDC party. Voting in Bukimbiri is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2022. The by-election stems from the court of Appeal’s decision to nullify the victory of Kwizera citing irregularities following a successful application by Owebeyi” (Flash TV Uganda, 07.08.2022).

Joshua Mutabazi statement:

But if, its for the people, but if it was for liberation, but had it been for us then why wait long. We cant keep claiming condemning and consoling. I choose to bridge the struggle but most importantly draw lines between what one needs and what the country needs. What the country needed a decade back was our leaders to be one, we are late. Its my turn, I wont delay therefore announce my withdrawal from the parliamentary seat by-election of the latter mentioned jurisdiction in favor and full support for united struggle. As the country’s need to have united forces of Change ages daily, I and my party decided to take it upon ourselves. If you have ever experienced injustice and by the ungodliness, then you are a candidate to stand against the same. “Do you want to stand out? Then step down. Be a servant. If you puff yourself up, you’ll get the wind knocked out of you. But if you’re content to simply be yourself, your life will count for plenty. Matthew 23:11-12-11-12 MSG If you are unwilling to make an early sacrifice in life, you’ll be beggars and slaves to the men who did” (Joshua Mutabazi – STATEMENT ON MY WITHDRAWAL FROM THE BUKIMBIRI COUNTY PARLIAMENT SEAT BY-ELECTION, 06.08.2022).

That Mutabazi (NUP) is withdrawing his candidature is in line with the united forces in the by-elections. This means the NUP and FDC will combine their efforts and be behind one candidate in the race. It shows that the statement released after the Soroti East By-Election is in effect. The parties are coordinating and ensuring the possible best outcome.

The FDC Owebeyi was able to pull off the petition in the courts after the General Elections of 2021. However, now in the By-Election it is a whole other breed. The state will use all means and tactics. The NRM EC Chairman is even saying it out loud. Expect it to become a military exercise. We should expect mass-arrests, pre-ticked ballots and other malpractices to ensure “victory” of the NRM flag-bearer. That’s how they are doing it and it’s so obvious.

That’s why I have little to no faith in the opposition in these races. Not because I want the NRM to win. I do want anyone else than the NRM to win. However, the way they operate and continues to take the elections. The will of the people isn’t the vital one. It is the total annihilation of the opposition. That’s the goal and the objective…

I don’t see a positive outcome. The FDC flag-bearer James Owebeyi could be a genuine man and an honest actor, the best sort of candidate, but that doesn’t matter. Because, the state is preparing their machine and rigging. The FDC polling agents and activists will soon feel the agony of facing the state. They are getting into the firing line and they tend to answer with brutality. To think otherwise is to be naive in 2022… Peace.

Philippines: National Citizens’ Movement for Free Elections (NAMFREL) – Young NAMFREL Members on the 2022 BSKE (08.08.2022)

Ethiopia: Will there be a future Wolaita referendum?

Professor Assefa Wodajo, an activist working for separate Wolaita regional state, has been arrested in Sodo. Yesterday a protest was held in Sodo against ruling PP party’s proposal to create a new regional state comprising 10 zones and 6 districts (including Wolaita) of SNNPR” (The Oromia Daily Post, 07.08.2022).

The authorities and leadership of Addis Ababa should listen to the pleas and the will of the people of Wolaita Zone. By the 2020 population of the region is about 5,385,000 people. With this in mind, the wil land want for a Regional State makes sense.

When the Prosperity Party let the Sidama have a referendum and transformed the Sidama zone(s) into a regional state in 2020. In 2021 after another referendum the Prosperity Party also made the South West Ethiopia Peoples’ Region (SWEPR), which means two regions has come out of the SNNPR under the reign of the Prime Minister Abiy.

The same sort of thing would make sense for the Wolaita Zone as well. We know the state is busy scheming “clusters” in the SNNPR, instead of offering the historical zone a possibility to get recognition.

The Kingdom of Wolaita lasted from 1251 to 1896. So the area has had an historical impact, which led to 42 dynasties and respect the seat of Kawo. After the fall of the Kingdom the new rulers let appointed governors rule over the Wolaita until the DeWrg changed the government structure and put Wolaita together with Sidamo. This lasted until 1991 when Wolaita became a zone in the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR).

Because of the act of making Sidama a Regional State. There are others who wants that for themselves. They want to see their Zone and their place in the same light as the neighbour. That’s because of the current government system and the benefits of being a state. There will be elevated infrastructure and security organizations with that. Which isn’t made in a cluster or such.

So, with the knowledge of two referendums and the two new regional states. The people of Wolaita has even a greater cause for their will and want. This has been created by the creation of Sidama and SWEPR. The door has been opened up for others and now the ones left behind asking for their turn.

The arrest of the Professor isn’t helping the cause, but instead only giving it credibility. As the people are demonstrating and protesting for their rights to a state. Who can blame them?

They have already seen two regions carved out of the SNNPR and easily could see a third. With the knowledge of the size of the SNNPR and the amount of population. The Wolaita Zone would take around of it and make the SNNPR really small in population size. However, it would still be bigger than Sidama and SWEPR, which has already been created.

This is a sort of play that the Prosperity Party has ushered in themselves with the establishment of new regional states surrounding the Wolaita zone. As well, as the knowledge and self-believe of ability to create hegemony on their own. Which isn’t hart to believe knowing how the current regime is running the nation. Surely, the Wolaita would prefer some more established boundaries, than what they have today.

So, is Wolaita next? Peace.

Gogonyo County By-Election: The NRM is soon winning on “walk-over” here…

The NUP candidate Mr Joseph Okoboi Opolot announced in a press release dated August 7 that he is pulling out of the race in the forthcoming by-election of Gogonyo County in Palisa District. A few days ago, FDC withdrew its candidate in favour of NUP. NRM’s candidate Orone Derrick who has been the incumbent MP is almost unopposed with the withdrawal of his major rivals” (Emmanuel Busingye – ‘BREAKING: NUP Gogonyo candidate bows out of race’ 07.08.2022, Ekyooto.co.uk).

The 11th August 2022 can just appear in Gogonyo County By-Election, by all means the results are already appearing and announcement is pure victory of the National Resistance Movement (NRM). Some are already saying that the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) shouldn’t have trusted the National Unity Platform (NUP). However, it wasn’t long ago that the FDC barely could have a candidate in the Omoro By-Election after the NRM pulled a similar stunt on their first candidate there. So, the FDC should know this game and understand the trickery that the NRM is pulling.

It is tragic that this is happening in Palisa district. The election is now barren and close to pointless. The NRM is as close as running unopposed and has no real competition. The NRM could just be sworn-in and be a part of the 11th Parliament now. Especially after the late pull-out of the NUP Flag-bearer.

The joint candidacy of the opposition is meant as a good way of organizing the campaigns and strengthen the parties ahead of the polls. Since, the NRM uses the state machinery and the authorities to ensure victory. The elections are hallow and so barren of democratic principals. That the idea is well founded and shows unity. Alas, it also has a backside when the NRM and the authorities are able to corrupt their candidates.

The FDC saw what happened with the self-abducted original flag-bearer in the Omoro County By-Election. So, let us not forget about the tales of Denis Dickson Owani this quickly. Just as he “escaped” and the FDC was able to field a substitute. The authorities and the NRM was able to pull this off much later… which means the NUP and FDC isn’t capable of replacing Opolot either. That’s the tragic thing here.

The NUP is at fault to not ensure total loyalty to the cause and that he would properly stand for election. However, the same greed that ate Owani has now corrupted Opolot. That is the gist of it here.

That gives way for Derrick Orone who is contesting for the same seat for the second time in two years and this time around he has practically no real competition. This means that this By-Election is already cooked and ready to be served. Peace.

Opinion: Odinga is on cruise-control … [but is it safe though?]

The Azimio la Umoja – One Kenya Alliance Presidential Candidate Raila Odinga is scheduled to win and do it comfortably this time around. This isn’t the first election or campaigns for Odinga. He has challenged for the title and the office for decades and it’s finally seems like ending there. Odinga needed to become the old man and a “baba” to be there. Because, now he has amassed the political capital and relations to ensure him victory.

While his far from alone in the race, the main competition is the current Deputy President and career politician William Ruto. The man who has went from two periods in the docket of the Deputy and being part of the government to become outcast and a direct opposition. The United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and Kenya Kwanza Alliance Presidential Candidate doesn’t have it solidified just yet. We know his team will boost his numbers, but being outside the machinery will show a hard time for him.

While the two other candidates which has been recognized and acknowledged in this race is David Mwaure and Professor George Wajackoyah. Mwaure is the Minister and Lawyer, the leader of the Agano Party Presidential Candidate. While Prof Wajackoyah is a Priest, Lawyer, Educationist and the leader of the Roots Party. These two has no real chance and is only fillers on the ballots. However, the last mentioned has caused more headlines and promises of unpractical exports and possibly a “high-life” for the ones voting for him. So, the populism is existing even among the candidates with little to no traction normally.

Alas… here is the case and no one should be shocked by this. The state-machinery and everything involved with the current status-quo is working on overtime to get Odinga elected. That’s the current President travels and rallies for Odinga now. The man he tear-gassed and killed his supporters in previous elections. Kenyatta has used all tricks against Odinga in past elections. So, seeing him backing everything behind him and being the “kingmaker”. Really shows that in politics, enemies are only temporary. Later they can become your allies, which in this case very true.

While a former ally and associate. Someone who worked close and went along with the Jubilee Coalition and the new formation of the Jubilee Party ahead of the 2017 elections. Ruto is without the backing or support of the state now. His not with powerful allies who can conquer or use the authorities on his side. That’s why his more eager and less arrogant in his manner. Even made a video trying to appeal to people after the debate. He cannot trust on Cambridge Analytica tactics either. The DP don’t have that and seemingly cannot spread his messages on social media like last time.

That’s why Odinga is more confident and relaxed about the situation. It’s the feeling that it’s already in the bag and he can finally take the W. While Ruto is anticipated to take the L. This is just the assumption and how it’s perceived. The electorate might feel otherwise, but all headlines and the general feeling is there. Unless, the Azimio camp suddenly breaks out of character and dissolve completely. Which would be weird… since it seems so calculated.

In a weeks time the polls are and the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) better deliver credible and fair elections. Though people are afraid of that and the recent arrests of foreign “agent” or “contractors” has put that into jeopardy last month. People are wondering if the IEBC is put to it or even ready.

Last time the Odinga coalition, NASA was able to nullify and call for Fresh Presidential Elections. However, he lost for a second time there. Even if the then opposition claimed it was rigged and was malpractice, which launched Kenyatta into a second term. Now in 2022… years after the Handshake and the works of the Building Bridges Initiative for National Unity. We can just await the polls and see if Odinga finally crosses river Jordan into Canaan.

Time will tell and only in about a weeks time we will know. Usually, the IEBC uses most of the scheduled time to announce the winner and doesn’t do quickly after the polls. It is a tense time awaiting the final results. However, if the writing on the wall is right. Than it’s Odinga’s turn to reign and be in office.

Nevertheless, we can never know and there could be surprise. Maybe the hustler and his wheelbarrows was able to trick it all. I doubt that and I think Ruto knows this as well. The two other mentioned candidates are ballot fillers at this point. They are the Thirdway Alliance of this election and will not amount to anything sincere. Though the Professor has caused some controversy and also laughs online.

Well… that’s about it. I would be amazed if Baba isn’t announced during the end of next week. However, the year 2022 is a year of weird things and erratic behaviours. So, God knows and we don’t. We are just mere mortals awaiting another day. Peace.

A Joint Opposition ahead of the next By-Elections…

The way to get back our power is to unite all of us and the population to be rallied together. Once that happens, I’m very excited that I can see it now beginning to happen. Even if we said that let all of us do this, this regime has no capacity to stop it” – Dr Kizza Besigye (01.08.2022).

Today there was a real launch of a joint opposition ahead of the next elections. This was a mix of various parties and formations. The main ones are the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) and National Unity Platform (NUP). The other parties was the People’s Progressive Party (PPP), Justice Forum (JEEMA) and the DP Block. While the People’s Front for Transition (PFT) and People Power Movement (PPM).

This is the first one that is like this since the Democratic Alliance (TDA).The TDA have been shaky and most of the members there has ended up in the arms of the regime.

The TDA isn’t the only joint opposition ahead of an election. In 2011 the opposition went ahead with a coalition called the Inter-Party Cooperation (IPC). In 2020 the FDC and NUP created the United Forces of Change (UFC).

Today we are seeing a new front with a lot more parties and formations behind it. That could strengthen the cause. We have already seen the NUP and FDC supporting a joint candidate in the Soroti East By-Election in the Moses Attan there. The new Press Conference and Joint Statement shows not only sentiment, but a plan for the parties ahead.

This country is bigger than our political parties. The mission is bigger than building our political parties. In any case, one would argue that there are no political parties in Uganda because we do not operate like political parties” (Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, 01.08.2022).

The Joint Statement is stating the plan ahead:

Going forward, we shall jointly or severally use any upcoming elections to organise and rally the population to defend their democratic rights and end the election ‘madness’ that has bedeviled our country since independence” (Joint Statement, 01.08.2022).

It will be interesting to see it happening in the upcoming by-elections. The opposition is showing a united force and its needed. The messages from the leaders is as important. Because, the parties and formations are pledging to work together.

The ruling regime and the National Resistance Movement (NRM) have been met with similar coalitions before, but this time around there is no direct or former NRM who will leave the fold quickly. The ones that has left the NRM did it so long ago… that it seems impossible for a return.

This statement comes days after the NRM-DP Cooperation Agreement and the previous election agreement between NRM-UPC. Therefore, this time around the Joint Opposition has to prove it. As the NRM is purging and trying to convince the opposition of working with them.

The Joint Opposition have to show it and also ensure they field the best candidates. They have to show the malpractice and undermine the election rigging. In such a manner, that the NRM cannot live with it or even announce the results. The opposition has to show fierce methods and not only play to the rules of the state. Opposition cannot just participate, but prove everything wrong with the regime.

Time will tell if this will work. The ambition and sentiment behind is commendable. I am hope it does make a difference. Not only a Press Conference and a Statement. The people have to see it and the parties and formations have to show it. Peace.

Uganda: Joint Statement of Political Leaders, Parties and Formations against the Brazen Thuggery of Elections in Uganda as Exemplified in the By-Elections of Kayunga, Omoro and Soroti (01.08.2022)

Opinion: The Bukimbiri County and Busongora County South By-Elections is up next…

After Omoro and Soroti East By-Elections this year. The National Resistance Movement (NRM) will not back-down. Don’t expect these By-Elections to be anything better. The NRM uses all means to “win” and pyrrhic victories is their vibe.

The same will be the case on the 11th August in Bukimbiri County in Kisoro Distric and on the 18th August Busongora County South in Kasese District. That’s only about two or three weeks from now. People are already shattered and seen the means to an end from the NRM. They don’t mind using military means, mass-arresting and ordering the military to intimidate the people. The NRM doesn’t care about ballot-stuffing, pre-ticked ballots or ferrying voters. No, everything goes as long as their Member of Parliament is elected. That is what the previous By-Elections has shown.

The Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) can field a candidate in both elections here. The National Unity Platform (NUP) as well. It doesn’t matter who the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT) or Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) either. The FDC has big chances in Kasese, as that has been their stronghold in that region, but we saw how much that mattered in Teso sub-region. The machinery and the state will just assault its way to power. It doesn’t matter what the will of the people or what the people wants to vote. The predetermined minds of the State House and the NRM CEC matters more.

After what we have seen, the FDC and the other opposition parties can field candidates. These candidates do an honest campaign and be canvassing votes in the constituency. We know that the FDC, NUP and ANT will field candidates in Bukimbiri County. However, after what we have seen in Omoro and Soroti East that this doesn’t really matter. The NRM will ensure their MPs get elected and they will not spare on anything. They will use money, promise the heavens and rig the polls. That’s what they do and people should know that.

The opposition could have the best candidates, heck they could have saviour and a grand peacemaker. The person would still lose, because the NRM would use all their tools to get ahead. They don’t mind to arrest, detain and silence the opposition. The NRM can use the army and the police force for their winning. That has been shown and the soldiers will be there too. This is the only way the NRM can “win” an election in 2022.

We need to expect more mass-arrests and more agony. The NRM and the current regime will not allow a proper election to be held. Because, if the NRM and the Electoral Commission held that. They would risk to lose to a nobody or an unknown person from another party. That’s because the public is tired of the NRM and this is why they fear the voice of the people. They wouldn’t dare to do an honest election. For a simple reason: They don’t trust the judgement of the people and that’s why they have to decide for them.

We should expect shambolic affairs… elections filled with malpractice and intimidation. Voting bribery, voter ferrying and pre-ticked ballots. All of it will be used. That’s why the persons on the ballots doesn’t really matter. The ones on the Yellow Bus and part of the NRM will have an advantage the others cannot conquer. The only way they can do that is if the public storms the tally-centres and reacts to the open rigging of the regime.

However, I wouldn’t count on it. The usage of the army, police and high ranking officials to rig the elections. Will strike fear to the public and make them feel indifference. The elections has no real purpose. As it is only a ceremonial waiting-game for the announcement of the NRM Flag-bearer for MP. Peace.

Soroti East By-Election: Return Form for Transmission of Results (28.07.2022)

Soroti East By-Election: East Kyoga Regional Police Cautions the Public against Electoral Guidelines and Laws (28.07.2022)