Kenya: Raila Odinga Presidential Secretariat – Ruto’s Attempts to Return Corrupt Culture of Political Defections (19.08.2022)

Busongora South By-Election: Return Form for Transmission of Results (18.08.2022)

Kenya: The Two MCC MPs ditches Azimio

 

Today it’s also revealed that the two elected Maendeleo Chap Chap (MCC) candidates Mwengi Mutuse and Caleb Mule have gone from Azimio la Umoja over to Kenya Kwanza Alliance. These two MPs are following the announcement of United Democratic Movement (UDM) who joined in much higher numbers. This purge is certainly to ensure total control of Parliament. The House has now a solid majority of Kenya Kwanza MPs and the same can be said about the Senate.

The MCC MPs follows Party Leader Alfred Mutua who during the campaigns switched sides. As the party was still aligned with Azimio. While he left for the greener pastures in Kenya Kwanza. That is obviously clear now and these MPs who promised to be different to the Ruto supported opponents. Has just barely week after being declared MPs switched to Ruto’s side.

We are seeing what Ruto does and the two MCC MPs becomes part of huge majority now. They are following the Party leader and their stay in Azimio was only for the hope of becoming part of Odinga’s Canaan. However, that they traded away minutes after the declaration.

This shows how easily these politicians can be swayed and how fickle the alliances are. One minute your enemies and the next your partners-in-crime. That’s just how this game goes and Ruto playing it so easy. His getting advantage after advantage and it’s only mere days after the declaration of victory.

That got to sting Odinga and the Azimio. Seeing practically UDM and MCC becoming allies of Ruto in a heart-beat. This is the gist of it and it didn’t even happen slowly. We just have to await more news and see who else decides to join Ruto. It seems like that sort of season and Azimio is losing steam before the petition is delivered to the Supreme Court. Peace.

Kenya: The Kingpin of Mandera and his party switch sides….

Azimio la Umoja’s Ali Roba, UDM party leader joins Kenya Kwanza. Sources confirm Roba led a delegation of UDM politicians who were elected under his party to join president-elect William Samoei Ruto’s coalition. He and his contingent were welcomed by Ruto at his Karen residence” (Lolwe TV Kenya, 18.08.2022).

Today it’s clear that the purge on Azimio la Umoja coalition is on. The Kenya Kwanza Coalition is now seeking to broaden their mandate and get fellow allies in the Parliament. It is now clear that the Party, which the President-Elect was part of in 1999. When Ruto and other KANU rebels started the United Democratic Movement. A party which wasn’t allowed registration at the time. Ruto sought refuge in the party in 2007, but was claimed to have a hostile takeover. That meant that Ruto had to start his own party, the United Republican Party (URP) which formed an alliance with Uhuru Kenyatta’s The National Alliance (TNA). The rest from here is history and now after being Deputy President for two terms and elected President. The party is returning as an ally of Ruto, which is so interesting in the grand scheme of things…

How the UDM did in this election:

The surprise kingmaker of the northern region is Mandera Governor Ali Roba. His United Democratic Movement (UDM) pulled a surprise by winning two governor positions, nine parliamentary seats and at least 35 ward representatives. UDM bagged the Mandera governor seat through County Assembly Speaker Adan Khalif. Marsabit Governor Mohamud Ali choose to defend his seat on its ticket. Mr Roba is the new Mandera Senator on the party ticket. New Wajir senator Abass Sheikh Mohamed also sailed through on UDM ticket. The party bagged the Mandera Woman Representative position through Ms Umulkheir Kassaim. UDM won the Mandera North, Mandera South, Mandera West and Banisa parliamentary seats as well as Lunga Lunga in Kwale and Laisamis constituency in Marsabit county” (The Daily Nation – ‘Election shows who regional kingmakers are, with Roba the new kid on the block’ 14.08.2022).

The UDM party really matters in the North-East and Hassan Ali Joho wrote this after the polls:

Mandera County: Ali Roba is the king of politics in North Eastern Kenya. His newly formed UDM party won Governor position, Senatorial, Women Rep and four MPs. ODM and Jubilee has one MP respectively” (Hassan Ali Joho, 11.08.2022).

So, just mere days after the Declaration of President-Elect Ruto. He has been able to get 10 independent MPs on his side and now 7 MPs and other elected officials as well. Because, the UDM are changing sides. They are doing this even before any petition to the Supreme Court and doing their bidding to be part of the newly elected government. Which by acts of KKA and UDA is getting a stronger majority by the day.

This is just the beginning of the purge. Others will follow the UDM. They want to have a say and possibility of plum-jobs in government. These folks wants titles and the benefits of being associated with the ruling elite. That’s the gist of it.

That’s why the kingmaker, the kingpin and the king of politics in Mandera switched sides and joined Ruto. He ditched Odinga the first moment that he could. The UDM party leadership knows this will benefit them and it’s a reason for the turn of events.

Azimio shouldn’t be surprised. They should just expect more parties to join. As they want their cut and their place in the hierarchy. They don’t want to be left alone in the dark. No, they also wants to shine. Their bet was the wrong one and now that why they are fleeing the sinking ship. Peace.

Busongora South By-Election: A few updates on the polling day

The ones that expect free and fair elections. Well, the reports are in dark contrast of that. Everyone should anticipate a “victory” for the National Resistance Movement (NRM) flag-bearer and case-closed. Because, the military is participating and voting bribery is happening in the open.

The NRM with the help of the forever busy Prime Minister Nabbanja is giving the voters 2000 shillings to vote for her party. That’s what a government official is busy doing in the middle of the polling day. The NRM is giving away 2,000 shillings to the citizens to vote for them. Because, that is what’s called service delivery in 2022 by the “liberators” of the past.

The NRM has also ordered the soldiers to participate in voting in plain clothes and doing it several of times, if they must. That’s certainly a way of boosting the numbers. In addition to that, the armed officers did manhandle and violently attack Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) flag-bearer Kighema Alosious Baguma at his polling station today. He was also arrested as an affect of the commotion. Which happened because the candidate saw the military did go more than once to vote in plain-clothes and reported it.

It is also reported that a NBS TV Reporter was arrested during the By-Election today for covering the incident of FDC flag-bearer being beaten up. The Reporter also had to delete the footage. There are also reports of ballot-stuffing. So, all the tricks of the NRM rigging book is used.

They are pre-ticking ballots, voting bribery and violent intimidation. The perfect combo for a NRM “victory” in a by-election. The only thing missing is mass-arrests of polling agents from the opposition and the whole mixer of pre-fixed results are on schedule. This is the “democracy” that Museveni has created and is so proud of.

There is also reports of ferrying voters from Busongora North to vote in Busongora South County. So, all the tricks in the book is used. The NRM has no heart or ability to play fair. Neither is it free as the Police, Army and the Authorities are all on guard to secure the NRM Flag-Bearer get “elected” to the Parliament. They are using all means and it’s never ending really.

So, all we can do is to await the declared results and the Return Form for Transmission of Results, which will be the end of it. Because, these sorts of elections are getting old. It is the same old tricks and schemes, which is made to benefit one party. That’s all they do and it’s just a loss-loss operation. It is no integrity or honesty in it. Only an open day-time robbery and proof of rigging. This is so obvious and it’s just shows how the NRM operates.

Gideon Thembo Mujungu is bound for the Parliament. His not going there out of charisma, character or campaign. No, his going there for one reason: The NRM decided it and that’s why. He is just another pawn and a “yes-man” they need to vote in favour the State House. Peace.

Somaliland: Somaliland Political Associations Forum – Press Release (18.08.2022)

Opinion: Is Azimio just running on vibes?

Was the Azimio la Umoja – One Kenya Alliance just run on vibes? Was it just a vehicle and a mechanism to ensure Baba the Fifth and they expected it just to run its course? Because for everyday going and what is said or done. It seems like a mismatch of ideals and sort of understanding of where they are. Certainly a vast group of parties, leaders and egos will sooner or later fail. Because, if the house of cards loses its centre… it will totally collapse. That’s what I see coming soon to you.

Well, after the Declaration of the victory of United Democratic Alliance Presidential Candidate William Ruto. The Azimio has seemed out of order. Just like the manner of which the Azimio behaved and acted before the Declaration of the Presidential Election. Baba and the 4 defiant Commissioners all sang the same song. It was a like a coordinated choir and more in tune that the one at Bomas, apparently.

That the Azimio affiliated Commissioners worked for a “re-run” shows their lack of independence and their ideals to secure Odinga no matter what. That was their job and they didn’t finalize it. As they were appointed late last year in order to secure one objective. This is a plan and that’s how you “fix” it.

We know that Kenyatta part-took in the Azimio and added value to the coalition of parties. Not only by letting Jubilee be a part of it, but all the other smaller parties it has signed agreements with. Just like the Azimio also got the OKA as a partner too. This is a reason why the coalition should be solid and it had such vast support.

Still, how could that fail? Well, the lack of professionalism? The hubris and confidence overpowered the lack of faith or the lack of popularity of Kenyatta? All of that could be true. People have seen what the Kenyatta years has done or not done. It has been lofty promises and a bonanza of grand-corruption cases. It isn’t like good governance or service delivery has been the priority of the Jubilee years. No, it has been power and bully institutions who hasn’t followed the program.

So, the hubris and confidence of the Azimio could be it own self-destruction. Thinking it was in the bag before the polls. They didn’t need to act methodically or even have own tally centre. The Azimio didn’t need to have copies, print or a “war-room” to ensure the due process. Instead, their agents or the ones there was only with cell-phones and doing calls. They were not overseeing or having a clear oversight of the process as it happened.

The Azimio must have been unprepared for a loss. The machinery and support was all behind it. They never thought the public or the candidates it was meeting had any chance. That’s why the Azimio sounded confident of victory until the mere hours before the Declaration. Baba the Fifth and he was ready to serenade the Republic. However, it wasn’t his day just like so many elections before him. Yet again… he lost and the public was never ready for Odinga.

That’s why the election is disputed and the petition is getting prepared. The Azimio team isn’t looking smart, for every Press Conference they are looking scrambling and trying to find the next step ahead. They are bewildered and outsmarted. Ruto and his team wasn’t the ones with the biggest pockets or the state behind it. Though it had the wits and the wisdom to be prepared.

That’s why these things happens. The manner of which Ruto has calculated and planned ahead. That’s why his ensuring not to get a hung House and getting majority in the Senate. Just so he has the chambers on his side. That’s what a smart politician does and his ensured that already.

While Azimio is playing politics and wants Kalonzo as the Speaker. He will never be the Speaker and not with UDA or Kenya Kwanza Alliance (KKA) in office. That’s a fools errand, but just showing how they are thinking or fooling around.

The Azimio is just proving how rudderless they are and disorganized. They went into the elections on vibes and stopping the reggae. It must hurt the seasoned politicians that they had poor planning, the inner circle failed the masses and clearly lacks strategy. If they had that and did so with coordination. The Azimio team should have had this, but Ruto was able to find his pathway.

The IEBC has this time better shield and great transparency. Therefore, the Azimio has to configure and really tricky-dicky sort of legal jargon to be able to do make it “null and void”. It isn’t from the on-set any mismanagement or rigging. The call of rigging only happened the moment Ruto was announced or declared. Before that everything was dandy and all of Azimio was claiming victory. They were prepared to celebrate and throw Baba a huge party as well.

That’s with every day going. The Azimio all seem like vibes. All good feelings and confidence, but no plan ahead. That’s why they scraping and trying to find their way. They are speaking loud and wanting to dismiss the election. An election that didn’t go it’s way. However, this time it seems pointless.

When you does it all vibes and not strategically thinking, no coordination and no prepositioned outcome. Then you deserve to loose. The lack of agent, national tally centre and no way of good communication between it all. You are just bound to fail and the only one to blame is the leaders on the top. The failure is obvious now…

Hubris and confidence can only take you so far. “Issa Vibe” isn’t a strategy but a good way of feeling good at a bar. You don’t win elections at bars, but you get some sloppy seconds, if your lucky. Peace.

Kenya: Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) – Staff Murder, Profiling and Misleading Reports on Presidential Election (17.08.2022)

Kenya: Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) – Statement by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (16.08.2022)

A look into Raila Odinga’s Statement on the Elections held on the 9th August 2022

(4)

A candidate shall be declared elected as President if the candidate receives—

(a)

more than half of all the votes cast in the election; and

(b)

at least twenty-five per cent of the votes cast in each of more than half of the counties.

(…)

(10) Within seven days after the presidential election, the chairperson of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission shall—

(a)

declare the result of the election; and

(b)

deliver a written notification of the result to the Chief Justice and the incumbent President” (Kenya Constitution, 2010 – Article 138(4)+(10)).

You better hold your popcorn. We know there will be litigation and this only the first address until the petition is launched. The 9th August 2022 Presidential Election was bound to go this way. Everyone who has followed Raila Odinga’s career. Knows that he cannot accept a loss or take it on the chin. He has to challenge it and go to the Supreme Court. That was bound to happen and it’s eventually happening. I am looking forward to read the paperwork actually, because the 2017 petition was such a masterpiece. Therefore, I wonder James Orengo and his team is up to now.

However, that will be for a later date to discuss. Right now we have only his statement and the words of which he describes yesterday. The day when his team ditched the Bomas and the Declaration of the Presidential Elections of 2022. That’s why his choices of words will be interesting. I will first show a quote from Odinga and then discuss it.

On August 9, 2022, millions of Kenyans turned out in large numbers in an attempt to choose their leaders at the national, county, and local levels after long and generally peaceful campaigns. But yesterday August 15, our budding democracy suffered a major setback. As a result, Kenya faces a grave legal and political crisis as a result of the actions of Mr. Wafula Chebukati, the Chairperson of the IEBC” (Odinga, 16.08.2022).

After reading ELOG and other Election Observation Missions Preliminary Statements it is really unique seeing this sort of assessment. It is a crisis for him personally and a loss. Yes, the IEBC did declare someone else than him. Just like the previous elections with Odinga too. He is now putting himself in place of the Republic and actually creating the crisis by not acknowledging the result. However, saying it was a major set-back and crisis is all on him, and his allies. Who are all working to undermine and pin the authorities. Who until the moment of deliberations and declarations was prepared to do their process. Certainly, there is more to this and this isn’t the first time Odinga is making Chebukati a scape-goat. He did in 2017 together with Ezra Chiloba as well. So, we have seen this game plan before…

The Constitution and our laws are clear about how the IEBC should conduct its business. There is no more important role for the IEBC than the conduct, transmission, and tallying of the presidential election. We are painfully aware of past political biases by the IEBC that plunged this country into its darkest chapter. The terrible memories of the aftermath of the 2007 elections are still fresh in our minds. In 2017, the Supreme Court of Kenya nullified the presidential election again because of the misconduct of the IEBC. What we saw yesterday was a travesty and a blatant disregard of the Constitution and the laws of Kenya by Mr. Chebukati and a minority of IEBC Commissioners” (Odinga, 16.08.2022).

It is striking that you speak of law and Constitution, but will disregard one part of it. Which is in the right of Chebukati as long as he is the appointed Chairman of IEBC. That he calls this the darkest chapter. Is yet again making himself the victim and the sole custodian of the Republic. Because, he was bound for this and this was final chance of reaching the Presidency. That’s why he goes into history and uses it to trigger people’s emotions. He can call it a travesty, because he wasn’t declared, but he didn’t respect the Declaration or the ceremony. The Presidential Candidate didn’t attend or care to do so. This shows that he already had contempt and was displeased with all in advance. If he was sure of the result and knew he would win. We know Odinga would have shown up. The Chairman would have notified him too. However, that didn’t happen and that’s why he avoided it. Really weird that he says Chebukati didn’t follow the Constitution… when that’s actually what he did accordingly to the Article 138(10). So, I don’t know what Constitution Odinga is referring too.

He continues: “The law is clear on the role of the Chairperson of the IEBC. The law does not vest in the Chairperson the powers of a dictator to rule the IEBC unilaterally. The IEBC is structured as a democratic institution in which decisions must be taken either by consensus or by a vote of the majority. The Chairperson and a tiny minority of commissioners have no legal authority to take weighty decisions and proclaim them as the rulings of the IEBC. The law on the IEBC provides that UNLESS A UNANIMOUS DECISION IS REACHED, A DECISION ON ANY MATTER BEFORE THE COMMISSION SHALL BE BY A MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS PRESENT AND VOTING. In addition, the court of appeal in the Maina Kiai case, ruled WE ITERATE AS WE CONCLUDE THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT FROM THE ARCHITECTURE OF THE LAWS WE HAVE CONSIDERED THAT THE PEOPLE OF KENYA DID NOT INTEND TO VEST OR CONCENTRATE SUCH SWEEPING AND BOUNDLESS POWERS IN ONE INDIVIDUAL, THE CHAIRPERSON OF THE APPELLANT” (Odinga, 16.08.2022).

The Chairman of the IEBC did follow the Constitution on the matter. That we can resolve. There is no distinction there. What is striking is that 4 Commissioners who went off broke their partisan pledge and wasn’t professional in their work. They can easily be seen as a violation of the Fourth Schedule in the IEBC Act of 2011. That’s why Odinga is speaking of the Business of IEBC, but not according to the Constitution and how it says the Declaration of the Presidential Elections. When you want to be pedantic, you better use more ammunition. The 4 Commissioners can easily be questioned, if their previous offices and political affiliations resorted into this. These was sworn into Office in September 2021 ahead of the polls. These was a part of BBI and approved by the Authorities in the run-up to the elections. So, people even was prepared for their outbursts and their publicity stunt. Which can be seen as a breach of the IEBC act in itself… I don’t Odinga is considering this at all…

He further states: “That is why I, AZIMIO and the nation at large, were shocked yesterday to learn that Mr. Chebukati ALONE decided to pronounce himself on the supposed winner of the 2022 presidential elections. We understand that ONLY Mr. Chebukati ALONE had access to the tally of the presidential vote. He denied all the commissioners access to that information until he suddenly appeared before the commissioners in the late afternoon to present them with a fait accompli” (Odinga, 16.08.2022).

Here he puts himself in front of the Republic, yet again. While he pins all blame on Chebukati who only did his function and role as the Chairman of the IEBC. Where his claiming all of this. I look forward to more of the intrigue behind closed doors, because this is just distorting the process and putting everything on the Chairman. As we know the 4 Commissioners was appointed in sole regard to help the cause of Azimio and that’s obvious by their actions thereafter.

He further says: “I understand that the commission had previously agreed on the tally of the Presidential results. But barely two hours before his announcement, Mr. Chebukati called a meeting of the IEBC and revealed to them the different results he was going to announce. FOUR of the SEVEN protested Mr. Chebukati s actions. But Mr. Chebukati whose mind appeared made up did not entertain any discussion of the results, precipitating a walkout by a majority of the commissioners who promptly denounced the results at a press conference. We know what happened next. A majority of the commissioners walked out and held a press conference where they denounced the results. Our view in Azimio is clear. The figures announced by Mr. Chebukati are null and void and must be quashed by a court of law. In our view, there is neither a legally and validly declared winner nor a President-Elect. Mr. Chebukati’s announcement purporting to announce a winner is a NULLITY. He acted with gross impunity and in total disregard of the Constitution and our laws. He could have plunged our country into chaos had our supporters not exercised great restraint. Such blatant acts of impunity can be a threat to the security of our country. It is not up to us to decide whether Mr. Chebukati has committed an offense. We leave that determination to the appropriate authorities. For the avoidance of doubt, I want to repeat that we totally and without reservations reject the presidential results announced yesterday by Mr. Chebukati” (Odinga, 16.08.2022).

Here Odinga further tries to explain the actions of yesterday. It can also be seen as a Partisan Commissioners didn’t do their function and dipped out when their candidate didn’t get their way. They didn’t fulfil their duty and this is why they created such a havoc. The man who didn’t show up and the Azimio team created also lots of chaos at Bomas, as the Choir was singing. The people awaited and the Commissioners created this uncertainty. Certainly, the Chairman could easily come out and explain what went down. His surely planing to do so in the Courts. While this is more looking like a planned affair and the 4 Commissioners did what they could according to plan. It is striking that he calls it IMPUNITY and a THREAT. When his sort of rhetoric and usage of words now is more endangering. He is sowing distrust and clear vision of distorting the process. As he has the verdict and the results in his mind. Results that wasn’t declared and this why he has to prove it in the Courts now.

He ends with: “Today I do not want to fully address our strategies going forward but suffice it to note that we will be pursuing ALL CONSTITUTIONAL AND LEGAL OPTIONS available to us. We will do so because we regard the many flaws in the elections and the wrongs committed by IEBC as FATAL to the process and the outcome announced by Mr. Chebukati. We urge Kenyans and the friends and partners of Kenya abroad to stand tall and be counted as we seek to advance the ideals of democracy and an open society that we have always stood for. We will pursue justice for our supporters and for all Kenyans so that their choices are respected and honored. MAY GOD BLESS YOU AND MAY GOD BLESS KENYA” (Odinga, 16.08.2022).

As I said, this was bound to happen and we all knew that from the no-show at Bomas yesterday. We knew when Odinga didn’t show up to dance or to entertain. He would rather build a case and ensure it by any means. That’s what is up now and its obvious for us all. This is going to the Supreme Court and the Apex ones to be contested. The IEBC can use the Constitution as well, as there are stipulations in the 2010 Constitution, which is clear and the Chairman didn’t violate them. Therefore, the technicalities got to be important and prove the rigging in such a manner, which is justification of a “nullification” of the election. That’s what is the game-plan and no one should be shocked by that.

Odinga is continuing where he left off in 2017. However, the IEBC has been transparent and that gives the IEBC an edge this time. Yes, there been technical issues and reasons to question to the actions of the IEBC. Nevertheless, the enhancement of the process and the elections makes it harder to justify.

In 2017 I was openly behind Odinga’s nullification of the first Presidential Elections. This time around there is more given to the professionalism of the IEBC. That’s why it seems like a fishing expedition, unless the Azimio legal team has more ammunition. There is a need of evidence and proof, as the tally centre and everything was on the up-and-up. Odinga wouldn’t have claimed this if he won. That’s just a given… and we all know that deep in our hearts. If the 4 Commissioners voted in favour of him and ensured him a final victory. He wouldn’t have uttered a word or called a dark chapter, a crisis or illegal act.

No, he would have bashed in glory and singed psalms of Canaan. Peace.