Brexit: The British renaissance of shortages has begun

The long bad dream of our EU membership is over. The British renaissance has begun” – Lord Frost:

In 2019 and before the referendum in 2016 the Tories promised everything to run smooth. Heck, they said everything would be better than how things were. The Tories said they would prosper and get better deals. The trading would go smoothly and the red-tape would go missing. The bureaucrats of Brussels would loose their power and London would control all aspects. However, the Brexit has trashed this.

The process and the manner of which the Withdrawal Agreement was put forward in combination of the snap election in the middle of it. The Tories mashed things up and the ones looking back can see that the Tories did some real shoddy work. The Department for Exiting the European Union (DEXEU) and it’s ministers. The negotiations and the way it all transpired we all could foresee the end-game.

The Tories however continued to promise a smooth and operational change. Now that Brexit Day has arrived and the Kingdom has prospered since. We are as outsiders are seeing the results. The remainers and “project fear” was right. They knew this could happen. So many industries have been touched, importers struggles, financial institutions has moved Ireland and others has too. Not been much news of investments or industrial prosperity since Brexit days.

We are seeing pictures and hearing how the Supermarkets lacks produce and products. Petrol stations are without petrol. The UK lacks HGV drivers. Fish and Seafood is rotting in the ports. Fisheries have been closed for the fishermen and vessels cannot go outside out the territory to fish like before in EU territory. The Tories have failed people, again and again.

The Tories are only offering temporary relief and clearly not fixing the major issues. They will continue to sloganeer. The various industries will hopefully drop papers on their misgivings and troubles, which is caused by Brexit. Where they show the losses and costs of operations due to the Brexit.

We all know that and that’s part of the process. The Tories should shield the responsibility and be accountable. As they ushered it in and thrived on it. For years they have built the Brexiteers and their inept ministers. The state was clearly not prepared or had it’s ducks in order. That why all aspects been so painful.

Boris Johnson and his ministers cannot run away from this. Even though they are trying to dismiss or act like its something else that caused this. They know the warning signs and they went ahead anyway. Now the living in the UK have to live with the consequences. That’s why Lord Frost is selling petrol shortages as renaissance, which is staggering. Maybe he should have negotiated better terms, but that’s to much to ask in hindsight. Lord Frost can always point back at the times of Michael Gove who got stripped as the negotiator and got another role in the government.

The UK can expect higher prices, lack of things since the supply-chain is constrained and there is no end in sight for this. It is not like this will turn better now. Brexit is a shambles and the ones who was in-charges was clearly incompetent. If they had any sort of idea or foresight they would have tried harder, but in 2019 the Tories promised an “Oven-Ready” Brexit.

The oven-ready is as rotten as the fish in the ports, which never got sold as anticipated. The meal was prepared, but no one to eat it. Let behind in storage and the logistics couldn’t handle it either. That is the metaphor of the failure. Just like the bus could have been mocked. The Tories needs guidance and change their approach. However, they have to live this one out, because they invested so much into it. Their political careers will be forever marked by this. For many this is making daily hectic and they wouldn’t care about these career politicians.

What we do know is that the army cannot save this and who knew soldiers have to possibly save Christmas. Instead of preparing for possible peacekeeping operations or keeping the territory safe from invaders. No, the army has to secure you have petrol to get to work. That’s the British Renaissance Lord Frost is delivering to you. Peace.

Ethiopia: Paris Club – 1st meeting of the creditor committee for Ethiopia under the Common Framework for Debt Treatments beyond the DSSI (28.09.2021)

Brexit: The HGV driver shortage was warned about years ago…

The driver shortage has resulted in a dependence on agency and particularly foreign drivers that goes beyond what is needed to cope with seasonal variations and is now necessary to sustain normal operation. The dependence on agency staff means that operators in the sector are probably not investing enough in their staff. We think this creates two risks that need to be managed. First, if the UK becomes relatively less attractive as a place for foreign drivers to work, as it may do as the consequences of Brexit play out, the shortage could become much more acute, possibly quite rapidly. Second, the longer-term sustainability of the UK’s road haulage sector could be undermined if there is not a steady stream of people through the sector gaining the skills and experience that they need to become transport managers and operators” (…) “Both the industry and Government have taken steps to address the shortage. None of these are on a scale likely to deliver the number of drivers needed. The road haulage sector, supported by the Government, needs to take further steps to:

meet any shortage and reduce dependence on foreign drivers (about 60,000 drivers);

meet any predicted growth in demand; and

deal with the demographic time-bomb (about 75,000 drivers by 2020)” (Parliament.uk – ‘Skills and workforce planning in the road haulage sector’ 27.07.2016).

Sometimes you wonder if the Tories and the Cabinet Secretaries are so forgetful. You can wonder, if they care about warnings and red signs. The Brexit referendum would clearly target the haulage industry. As it is dependent on European Union citizens with license and ability to drive heavy-goods driver (HGV).

The Tories have offered a three month visa parley to everyone they sent packing after the Brexit was issued. The European Union Haulage Unions have dismissed this offer. They are saying they can easily be used, but sent straight back without any consideration for work. Therefore, the EU HGV drivers will not return to save Christmas in the United Kingdom.

Yes, the government gave this “amnesty” or ability during the weekend. At the same time it has put in regulations that all vehicles and lorries who is going into EU from the UK has to take-off their stickers with GB and change that to UK. That is actually something they have done. Just like changing colour on the passport. It is symbolic changes, but not what industries need in these dire times.

The Tories and the Downing Street needs to focus on. They are not securing the livelihoods of the HGV drivers. Neither has it made efforts or done anything for the foreseeable future. They are instead trying to patch up the hurt without any real reform for the transport sector. Which is needed to cope with the lack of trained personnel, salaries or even long-term prospects to work in the haulage industry.

The UK needs the EU HGV drivers to be able to cope. That is why we are seeing again the possibility of the army to do logistics in the Kingdom. Since, the Tories haven’t secured or made it possible for others to cover needs, which is clearly there. The Tories cannot even come with sound judgement or policies, which will make it feasible for the grandstanding departure of previous drivers to return. These will not return when they are getting pennies on the pound and working in crappy conditions while staying in UK. It is not like Boris Johnson or any of his cadre will humiliate themselves in the same regard. No, they rather spend vacations in Caribbean and hope someone else fixes the problems they created.

The Tories haven’t secure the basics. That’s why the supermarkets lacks produce and commodities, why farmers lack’s personnel to pick and secure their produce to market and finally lack of drivers to deliver the needed things across the Kingdom. The Tories haven’t given incentives or prospects for anyone then themselves.

The lack of drivers isn’t only the fault of Brexit alone. It is a systemic fault of a incompetent government. Who is all about publicity, but not about proper policies. This is why it is happening. The fuel-shortage and the empty shelves in the supermarkets says it all. It is not the fault of the public, but the politicians that promised heaven. However, they haven’t delivered the golden gates, but instead showed a little piece of hell.

Kudos to the Tories for failing in such a manner. They will blame anyone else and even say it’s the public own faults for buying petrol. The Tories will go after the companies itself, than look into own misgivings. Because that’s what they do.

What is extra tragic here is that they knew this could be amplified and gotten worse by the efforts of Brexit. However, the state didn’t act upon or take in-consideration the needs of the haulage industry. Therefore, the Tories who was in power the whole time could have made things possible, but clearly they never did. Peace.

Ethiopia: Abiy is wrecking the economy [and the nation as well]

Ratings agency S&P Global cut Ethiopia’s sovereign rating to ‘CCC+’ from ‘B-‘ on Friday, citing heightened political instability and delays to debt restructuring” (Street Insider – ‘S&P pushes Ethiopia’s ratings into junk territory on delayed debt restructuring’ 24.09.2021).

It’s been years upon year where the financial forecasts and the economy of Addis Ababa have been steaming ahead. The one republic and nation in the Horn of Africa, which has always looked golden. There haven’t been a year or a report, which haven’t been positive. So, within a three year span in power, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and his allies in the Prosperity Party is destroying this.

The Prime Minister has already caused a famine, weaponized humanitarian operations in the republic and ordered a war to consolidate all power. The PM have ordered his political enemies to their death or detained. There is no middle-ground and this sort of society isn’t bringing prosperity or stability. Anyone can at any time become an enemy and depending on how paranoid the PM is. If he gets total paranoia. The closest allies and leaders might end up like the enemies who are behind bars already.

This is combination of the freezing accounts of Tigrayan citizens, closure of businesses and profiling is also causing damage of the economy. As much as the state is becoming sanctioned and targeted by the United States of America. There is no wiggle-room and trust in the ruling regime.

The Prime Minister is now destroying the economy to a level in which investments have gone from the graded as B- which can be described as “highly speculative”. The PM has moved the Republic to grade of the CCC , which means that the economy is “extremely speculative”. For an investor this means there is a higher risk for defaulting on loans and therefore, deemed as “junk”. This means the state isn’t trustworthy and it is huge risk to invest there.That is not the sort of financial foresight any head of state wants for their republic. However, that is what Abiy has succeeded in doing.

The PM has now officially gone to the lowest level, However, the PM and PP has already depleted and destroyed the prospects of it’s economy with this internal war. It is costly to import weapons, military technology and ammunition. The costs are not only on the battlefield, but on the spreadsheet. This costs money and empty coffers. At one point the bank-accounts are scrapped and the state doesn’t have enough revenue to cover for re-occurring debt.

Abiy has to go to creditors and get the debt restructured. He has to prove he can make a plan to fix the budget and add revenue to the state. Because, at the moment the economy is bleeding. Just like the PM is doing in several of the state’s as well. There is so many people who are struggling in Oromia, Amhara, Afar and in Tigray. There are starvation, lack of basic commodities, medicines and water/electricity. Therefore, citizens are already struggling because of the war and now the state will struggle financially as well.

It is not like the PM has lots of friends to cover his debts and restructuring of it. This will not be easier when the government is sanctioned and that will make it even worse. The PM and PP has failed the republic and the nation itself. Not only the selfish war for own personal power, but risking so many lives to gain that. Therefore, long after Abiy is out of power. These efforts and usage of power will haunt the halls of power. Because, the state will has to rebuild and restructure itself to be a viable entity, which it clearly isn’t at this point. That is why it’s deemed as “junk” and the violations of human rights in combination with crimes against humanity will have to be addressed as well. It is all connected and the PM cannot run away from all the pain he has ordered on his citizens. Peace.

Ethiopia: Ministry of Finance – Press Release (22.09.2021)

Uganda Peoples Congress (UPC): Withdrawal of Multinational Companies (08.09.2021)

Kenya: Uchaguzi 2022 – Joint Civil Society Statement on the Election Campaign Financing Standoff (15.08.2021)

Brexit: “Operation Yellowhammer” is in full effect with the Army drive for the supermarkets

Certainly, some should feel a bit vindicated these days. Especially the Remainers who campaigned for “Project Fear” which was so scrutinized and called a blame-game of a worse scenario. The last few weeks has really shown the consequences of the Brexit. A Brexit that the Conservative and Tories promised to be easy and without any real costs.

However, everyone in their right mind knows that a divorce on this scale would cost. The marriage had to end and the transactions after this would be made more difficult. The Tories haven’t made things smooth or better. The rules and regulations between the United Kingdom and European Union is hectic. Several of companies and hauliers have stopped trading with the UK. This is now costing and showing results in the supermarkets across the Kingdom. That is not shocking, but was inevitable.

The Project Yellowhammer and Worst Case Scenario of August 2019 is now playing out. Where there was talks and projected to have disruptions of food supplies and across the supply chain. That was described there and clearly it is evident now.

The recent news says it all:

The Army has been put on standby to deliver supplies to supermarkets as Britain faces a shortage of 100,000 truck drivers. Around 2,000 personnel who are qualified HGV drivers are believed to be on a five-day notice to help distribute food and essentials including medicine. The Government is set to make a formal plea to the military for help ‘imminently’, with members of the Royal Logistics Corps and other regiments expected to be called upon by the end of September” (Siba Jackson – ‘Army ‘on standby’ to deliver food amid shortage of lorry drivers’ 08.08.2021, Metro.co.uk).

You know Brexit is a lose-lose enterprise when the businesses and the supermarkets needs the army to salvage the supply chain. The Tories and the government have failed the businesses and the consumers i.e. the citizens. They have told stories which wasn’t true.

All of the promises of a easy and simple transition is clearly out of the window. The reality is here now and the UK has to face it. The Tories got to find measures, means and possible way out of it. The soldiers and the ones who conscript to the army shouldn’t drive produce to Tesco or pick up lorries in Dover. That is just a failure if there ever was one.

This is just proving the pointers of the Remainers ahead of the referendum. The Brexiteers who promised so blatantly and wrongly that this would be a neat process. They should all take the mantle and configure this out. Since they are the ones who made it happen and ensure everyone that the basics are in order. Because, when the supermarkets and the convenient stores are running out of goods. You know you are in trouble.

There was plenty of folks who knew the Brexit and the new bureaucratic hurdles would cost, take time and stifle the logistics from Europe to the United Kingdom. The ones who has to import or export is paying the price. There has already been fish rotting in the ports and not getting through the system before they are expired. Therefore, the Brexit has destroyed businesses and ensured many are harder daily life.

The Tories especially, the wing of the Brexiteers has to take accountability. They need to fix this and not just settle with the army on standby. That is a show of weakness and that they totally failed. The Brexit isn’t a success, but a abomination of a government policy. It is a train-wreck and an insult to citizens. They sold a story of gold, but not everything that is shimmering is that. The Brexiteers sold fools-gold and a small majority believed it.

Now, everyone has to pay the price for it and surely nobody wants to hear it. Since it is visible and the HM Government haven’t got the qualified or the ability to figure this one out. The inept and corrupt government will not have the skills or the mindset to fix this. They will only make another circus and hope no-one see the real problems. Peace.

Malawi: Catholic Commission for Justice and Peace (CCJP) – Tonse Government, Fading Hope amid Governance lapses: Where is the Political Promise? (08.08.2021)

Malaysia: Muda Wilayah – The Banks & Malaysians in Distress (09.07.2021)