Opinion: Time to smell the coffee… [Veni, vidi, vici]

The last few days the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED) has defended it’s agreements with Uganda Vinci Coffee Company Limited. This stems from the agreements, addenda’s and whatnot.

This is the same investor that is building the Lubowa Specialized Hospital. When seeing the results of that and lack of progress. The sort of deals and agreements with UVCC is only beneficial for the owners and the ones arranging it in the state.

The coffee-farmers had no say in this and the monopoly of trading beans will possibly destroy the exports of coffee. Especially, when the company has been working on the factory since the investor with a delegation held a meeting at the State House in January 2014. This means it has gone 8 years and little to nothing has been moving. Just like there Hospital that been in the works since 2015. It is not like any of these has seen the lights of day and it isn’t getting any better.

The UVCC is getting tax-holidays and monopoly on coffee beans. Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA) should have a say in this and you can wonder why the Minister of Agriculture doesn’t want to have any play in it. That just shows the shoddiness, since one of their own and loyal cadres in Frank Tumwebaze is downplaying his role.

Finance Minister Matia Kasaija and Permanent Secretary Ramathan Ggoobi is both busy defending and selling the agreement in concern to UVCC. The company is given 10 years with monopoly and a tax-holiday, which is respectfully a terrible agreement. Especially, when there is no proof of the profitability or even if it is able to trade in this market. Secondly, the company has used years on end without any movements. The last proven change of the plot has been a field investigation in March 2020. Therefore, giving them a ten year monopoly two years later. Make you wonder why? What is so special and unique about UVCC? What leverage does this company has on the paper and makes it reasonable for the state to give away everything to it?

It is like the state owns the UVCC and the Italian investor for something. Even if there is no proof of profits or even able to carry it out. The reason why this can be said, because neither projects is anywhere close lights of day. At least the Soroti Fruit Factory actually exists, even if it is producing for the wrong fruit and isn’t profitable. Neither the hospital or the coffee factory is existing.

The Vinci Company is selling dreams… and the state is catching nightmares. The MoFPED is busy selling stories and fairytales. Since, the coffee processing plant is far from being built. There is no movement and proof of such. Neither is the Hospital getting into a stage of being operational. It is all on paper and agreements made by trading ghosts. The government is giving away a lot to a business, which is not even operational or has the proven ability of trading the commodities on the world market.

That’s why this whole deal is a mess. The naive will believe the numbers and the charts that Ggoobi was shelling out today and yesterday. The coffee market worldwide is huge, but how will a paper-tiger compete with the international companies and the ones that has been up and running for generations? Aha… that he will not answer too. Because, the trade and the business is already in motion. The state has already signed off it’s rights to a non-existent coffee factory and a company, which isn’t operational. That’s why the state has to patch the hurt, but the ones in-charge should smell the coffee, because this will get bitter very soon. Peace.

Opinion: Ggoobi is selling a bitter cup of coffee…

The ones that is believing the greatness and the proper means of the Vinci coffee deal signed by the Government of Uganda. They are naive and not seeing what has happened before. This agreement and deals between the investor and the GoU is bad at best. There is no denying in that. This is agreeing with the same investor and company, which was supposed to build the sophisticated Lubowa Specialized Hospital. That is yet to happen and is hard to believe that the same government would trade with the same person in another deal.

That’s why it’s interesting that Frank Tumwebaze was back-tracking. When he was in the room with one of the agreements was signed. While we know that the different ministries and government entities has participated in this.

This follows Parliament’s move to investigate the deal that the government through the Ministry of Finance signed with the company. The agreement in question was signed in February 10, 2022, amending an earlier agreement signed on April 29, 2015, and the accompanying addenda signed on December 21, 2015 and 17 October 2017. The amendment gives Uganda Vinci Coffee Company Limited a monopoly over the purchase and export of coffee from Ugandan farmers” (Mary Karubaga – ‘Agriculture minister says not a party to Vinci coffee deal’ 13.04.2022, New Vision).

Commenting about the matter on Thursday, Ministry of Finance Permanent Secretary, Ramathan Ggoobi defended the deal as one of the best the country can ever get. “The agreement was signed with Uganda Vinci Coffee Company Limited to assist in the development of an 80million dollar plant, add value to coffee and export it globally. The agreement was therefore signed following a protracted process of due diligence and feasibility studies,”Ggoobi said. To further defend the agreement, the Ministry of Finance Permanent Secretary said the deal was cleared by the Attorney General and was subsequently signed within laws governing the country and that none was broken. Explaining about the agreement, Ggoobi explained that the agreement will support government in the realization of its coffee production target from the current 7 million bags per year to 20 million bags by 2030” (Kenneth Kazibwe – ‘Uganda: “It Is the Best Deal Ever” – Finance Ministry Defends Controversial Coffee Agreement’ 14.04.2022, Nilepost/AllAfrica).

After reading this. You would think everything was clear and things was moving. The last piece of information about the movement on the matter. Was that there was a field investigation in March 2020 on the site of the Coffee factory. Alas, there has been little to no movement, except for huge promises and big dreams of achievements.

The Vinci Company have worked with this since they we’re visiting the State House back in January 2014. That is over 8 years of little to no progress. Only more agreements and furthering a paper-trail of it. It is so slow… that it’s hard to believe it’s the best deal a government could have. Neither can the company be so great… when the movements are so slow. The promises of vast production and jobs seems far-fetched. When there is no proof on site and neither in general.

The Vinci Company and it’s Coffee Processing Factory seems to be a dream that won’t come into reality. The Government or the Company doesn’t have the ability to pull it off. This would make sense and be adding value to the coffee beans, which is growing in Uganda. The idea is positive and the amount of bags would make good profits. However, if it is sustainable or have the funds to do so.

You can wonder, if there was any feasibility study or anything else. As there are little to nothing to show for it. Only huge hubris from the government and now from the Ministry of Finance. Which has to 8 years later say it is a grand deal. While nothing can be proven. If it was the best deal ever. Why haven’t Vince Company set up shop long time ago and even built anything? This is going glacier slow and isn’t promising. Neither is the possible stipulations or articles of the hidden agreement. Which should be public. Because, a monopoly of all coffee beans is a bad deal and would possibly stifle the farmers who is selling their coffee-beans. Peace.

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Russia: Medvedew calls the sanctions a “hybrid war” [as the EU embargo vodka, caviar etc… ]

Unlawful sanctions under certain circumstances can be qualified as an act of international aggression on the part of individual states or their unions” (…) “This is a declaration of economic war… It can be concluded that sanctions in the current situation can be qualified as an act of aggression against the Russian Federation, as one of the forms of hybrid war” – Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev (08.04.2022).

The European Union (EU) launched today the 5th Sanctions package in concern to the Russian Federation and Belarus. They have both a combination of things… which isn’t only embargoing coal to the EU. The newest package is severe, but not as bad some Members of European Parliament (MEP) even want to have. Therefore, sanctions isn’t aimed or stinging enough for some. The sanctions aren’t costing enough.

Nevertheless, the sanctions and packages are getting extensive. It is four more Russian banks that gotten a full transaction ban and asset freeze. Also, Russian oligarchs cannot have trusts to keep their wealth hidden in the EU. In addition, Russian nationals and entities are prohibited from getting procurement contracts within the Union.

We know things gets tougher when the EU orders an trade embargo on certain imports from Russia and Belarus:

Additional import bans – worth €5.5 billion – including cement, rubber products, wood, spirits (including vodka), liquor, high-end seafood (including caviar), and an anti-circumvention measure against potash imports from Belarus” (EU, 08.04.2022).

So, the Russians cannot sell vodka or caviar. This will hurt some industries within Russia and they are locked out of markets in EU. The Smirnoff Vodka and other brands will not been seen in the alcohol section from now on. The shelves will start to lack these things and certain goods will not even be able to find a substitute.

While the EU will not sell this to Russia: “Further targeted export bans – worth €10 billion – in areas in which Russia is vulnerable due to its high dependency on EU supplies. This includes, for example, quantum computing, advanced semiconductors, sensitive machinery, transportation and chemicals. It also includes specialist catalysts for use in the refinery industry” (EU, 08.04.2022). In addition to this, the EU will also not sell jet fuel and fuel additives, which could be used by the Russian army.

With that all being said… it is becoming restrictive and the measures are getting rougher. That is something it should be. However, they are not going all-in. The banks still have SWIFT and the Russian gas and oil is sold on the continent. The biggest reasons for trade is still there. The EU isn’t upping it’s game, but instead goes very calculative.

The Russian vodka can find other markets and be sold in other markets instead of the EU. The same can be said about the products, which is now embargoed. Therefore, the total scramble isn’t there and it’s hurting, but not biting.

Medvedev is just acting frustrated, because he knows this hurt the Russian industry and the exports. Some of the specialities even, which is vodka and caviar. These are their pride and joy. The type of products that is high value and oozing class.

The EU will not miss these things. The citizens can get similar things from elsewhere. Therefore, the ones losing here is Russia. That’s why Medvedev is so bitter about it and calls it war. Nevertheless, Russian businesses needs to change and they are paying the price over the illegal and brutal war in Ukraine. Peace.

Russia: PepsiCo plans to expand their own “special operation” in Russia…

According to the newspaper Kommersant, whose journalists got acquainted with fragments of the company’s presentation, the organization wants to create new products with different names and packaging. In particular, the New Cola product was presented in various containers of different volumes. Under the Fruitz brand, orange and lime flavored drinks were introduced” (…) “In addition, the company wants to expand the local brand Russky Dar, which currently produces only kvass. However, PepsiCo plans to expand the range with carbonated drinks in different flavors” (Viktor Bazhenov – ‘PepsiCo plans to create special products for Russia’ 07.04.2022, Komsomolskaja Pravda).

While other Western Companies and Brands are suspending their operations in Russia. As the sanctions and outrage of the Russian-Belorussian invasion of Ukraine is ongoing. There are about 200 companies that has either ceased, suspended or stopped to invest in the Russian market. That has been done as a result of the brutal war in Ukraine. This is being done because of the issues of transactions, lack of business opportunities or to get positive publicity in the West.

That’s why it’s very interesting that the soft-drink maker and conglomerate Pepsi Corporation who earlier this year suspended their production of Pepsi, SevenUp and Mirinda. Now has other plans and creating a new strategy. That is clearly to circumvent and get a bigger market share in the Russian Federation. As other Western soft-drink makers like Coca-Cola and others stopped producing sodas and beers in Russia.

After the other corporations and businesses has ceased or suspended their operations in Russia. There will be openings and possibilities from a business stand-point. In a way of filling the gap and finding new parts of the beverage market that PepsiCo can fill. From a direct business view it makes sense, but from a publicity angel it sucks.

The Pepsi Corporation is trading, earning profits and ensuring a bigger tax-base, which is good news for Kremlin and President Putin. This is supporting and making sure the Russian economy is going. That there is products to trade, people is getting salaries and such. This is a dream for a dictator to have a company of this stature to do this.

Yes, they did suspend the production of the world-wide famous soft-drinks, but they plan to make other special ones for the Russian market. That will be in addition to the Kvass. This is an deliberate attempt to get a bigger profits and ensure viability in the Russian Federation. That is really it and it’s being a token soldier of the Russian war-machine. They are trading, investing and finding ways of profiting in a marginal space without any preconditions.

PepsiCo is by doing so. They would stand up to huge scrutiny, as they are willing to earn blood money by association and by their decision to not only uphold certain products, but to add and create new ones. This is creating own products and soft-drinks catering to the Russian market. Securing them a vast market and huge profits in the middle of a war. That is it really and what they are willing to do.

The PepsiCo will be renowned by many. Their legacy of these drinks will be in the letter of “Z” and the association will be looked that way. The Ukrainian war and the lack of solidarity there will also be seen. As the corporation only dipped a minute and later found new avenues for furthering their business operation in Russia. The PepsiCo is more into long term gains than the dwelling into the problematic ideals of doing this.

The yellow and blue colours of Ukraine will clearly not matter to PepsiCo. They rather have a “special operation” of their own in the Russian market. Peace.

Ukraine: Vefhofstadt MEP wants more aggressive EU Sanctions…

In Brussels and the European Parliament… there is voices of reason as the European Union is releasing the 5th Package of sanctions against the Russian Federation. As the Russian-Belorussia invasion is on the 41st Day in Ukraine. The brutality and the acts of war is vile from the Russian forces within Ukraine. There is no mercy and Kyiv is burning. The Ukrainian state is bleeding… and European Union should sanction thereafter.

What the Member of European Parliament Guy Vefhofstadt is saying is so needed. The way and manner of which his reacting is resounding. Hopefully most of Europe listens to this, as the EU is putting forward their meagre 5th Package of Sanctions against the Russian Federation. That it’s implication is close to zero and is a lot of hot air. That is clear by the reasoning of the MEP.

Here is what he said earlier today!

You know why strategy doesn’t work? Because progressive packages of sanctions, with an autocrat, doesn’t work. That works with an democracy, with democrats who have a public opinion, a real public opinion. In Russia there is no longer a real public opinion. The reality is that it doesn’t work, because the fifth package is, what, coal. It’s ridiculous, it’s only three percent of imports from Russia. Swift, the ban, ridiculous. More than 50 percent of the financial institutions are still outside the ban. And oligarchs… The oligarchs, yes, we extend a little bit the oligarchs. The oligarchs will escape finally the sanctions, or lose a little bit of their money. You need to tackle the 6000 people around Putin, the real people working with Putin. And we have the list, Alexei Navalny, foundation of Navalny has made the list of 6000 people. These people you need to tackle. And so I have a request to you. I’m sorry that I’m telling it to you because I think that 90 percent of you agree with me. I’m pretty sure about that. So I wanted to say it to Michel and to Von der Leyen. In the name of 212: it’s time to change your strategy. It’s time to have an extra European Council as fast as possible, and to go for the full package of sanctions immediately, so that you can really make a difference. All the rest will not work. All the rest will prolong the war. All the rest will mean more killings on Ukrainian side. And finally, a little advice to my friends in Germany. I think after the horrors of the Second World War there has emerged – I’m finishing – a strong and democratic Germany, a very strong and democratic Germany. But from such a Germany I expect leadership. Leading by example and not dragging their feet, as we see it today” Guy Verhofstadt, MEP (06.04.2022).

The former Belgian Prime Minister and MEP speaks his heart out. He is surely tired of the bickering and the lacking results of the previous 4 packages from the EU. As an MEP and a former head of state. He wants to see results and actually help Ukraine. Not only doing lip-service and signs of solidarity.

Alas, the MEP wants to do things that really hurt Kremlin and the people around Putin. Not just damage certain industries or have some smaller collateral damage, which doesn’t even implicate the ones in power in Moscow. That’s why the European Council should reconsider their strategy, because Putin and Kremlin isn’t afraid. They are not really touched by this…

It is time to do it… the vile and war-crimes of Russia inside Ukraine should get a proper retaliation from the EU. If they are concerned about the lives of Ukraine. That is if they want Russian Federation to be really touched and not only lose minor percentages. Which is what the EU is doing now and for the fifth time. This is why the Russians aren’t stopping or losing steam. No, they are just brushing it off.

Since, Europe is still buying gas and funding the war-chest. While giving away small tokens and help to Ukraine. They are helping both parties to prolong the war, but not helping the one with what it needs in the middle of war. Instead, they are prolonging the agony… and people are dying endlessly.

The EU could do what the MEP says, but I wouldn’t count on it. If it didn’t cost the EU and the implications of it… the EU would have sanctioned this yesterday. That’s why EU will do it as a last resort, but not expect them to do it. That’s why Putin has the upper-hand and his gamble has paid off. Europeans will not risk losing the energy dependency and stop buying Russian gas. Therefore, the Russian Federation will not default and they will get funding to continue the war. Peace.

Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ): Resolutions of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting held on 1st April 2022 (04.04.2022)