Lebanon: UN expert warns of ‘failing State’ amid widespread poverty (11.05.2022)

Joint Communique on the Occassion of the State Visit to Uganda by Her Excellency Samia Suluhu Hassan, President of the United Republic of Tanzania, 10th – 11th May 2022 (10.05.2022)

South Sudan: Will President Kiir risk more Financial Transparency? [Since the IMF and World Bank cancelled all loans to the Republic]

The Ministry of Finance has said the World Bank and International Monetary Fund have cancelled all loans for South Sudan until the financial, and economic management reforms stated in Chapter Four of the September 2018 revitalised peace agreement are fully implemented. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) gave the conditions during the recent visit of the government delegation to Washington, DC, USA. The Minister of Finance and Planning, Agak Achuil Lual, headed the delegation. Agak and his accompanying delegates, who included the Governor of the Central Bank, Moses Makur, took part in the World Bank-IMF meetings that focused on the world economic outlook in relation to Ukraine’s war and the impact on global financial stability” (Atar News – ‘”NO MORE LOANS FOR SOUTH SUDAN”, SAYS WORLD BANK AND IMF’ 07.05.2022).

These days things are going to get hectic for the Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity (R-TGoNU) and for the signatories of the R-ARCSS. Especially the leaders of the SPLM-IG, the inner-circle around the President. One should suspect that the administration or R-TGoNU needs to quickly reform, but by doing so. The skeletons in the closet will be unleashed. While there are already some who is unleashed on the public.

President Salva Kiir Mayardit should be worried about these revelations. The costs of not getting loans from the International Monetary Funds and the World Bank is stopping fiscal funds to run the government. As well, as the issues with the shady or shoddy loans on futures on the petroleum exports from the South Sudan. This is unleashed on the public, as the IMF/WB is asking for the Chapter 4 of the R-ARCSS to be implemented.

Here is quotes from the UN Experts Report of April 2022:

The Panel also identified efforts by the Office of the President to accrue additional oil-backed debt to finance contracts awarded to favoured businessmen” (UN Experts Report – ‘S/2022/359’ April 2022).

The Panel confirmed that Amuk for Trading and Investment was ultimately controlled by Kur Ajing Ater, a prominent South Sudanese businessman. In a previous report (S/2019/301), the Panel described how another company controlled by Kur Ajing Ater, Lou for Trading and Investment, had been awarded similarly outsized procurement contracts by the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces, including for food “ (…) “87. The Office of the President played a prominent role in the agreement, including the President himself, his National Security Adviser and other senior staff, several of whom had been present at the signing of the deal in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. In confidential meeting minutes from a review of the 2018 contracts with Kur Ajing Ater, a senior South Sudan People’s Defence Forces official complained that “there are irregularities in this contract”, but that “the decision was from higher authorities so we can do nothing about it”” (UN Experts Report – ‘S/2022/359’ April 2022).

Within the chaotic system of the public finances of South Sudan, political and security officials continued to find opportunities to use their power and influence to divert significant public resources for their own benefit” (UN Experts Report – ‘S/2022/359’ April 2022).

General Principals of Chapter IV in R-ARCSS:


“The RTGoNU shall establish a high-level, competent and effective oversight mechanism that shall control revenues collection, budgeting, revenue allocation and expenditure. The oversight mechanism may solicit technical and advisory resources on economic governance from the regional and international community. The mechanism shall be guided by principles of mutual consent in accountability” (R-ARCSS, 2018).

The wealth of South Sudan shall be shared equitably so as to enable each level of government to discharge its reconstruction, development, legal and constitutional obligations, duties and responsibilities” (R-ARCSS, 2018).

Revenue sharing shall reflect a commitment to devolution of powers and resources, and the decentralization of decision-making in regard to development, service delivery and governance” (R-ARCSS, 2018).

When you read these general principles in comparison to the UN Experts Report of April 2022. You see the misgivings and what the R-TGoNU is doing at the moment. How profitable the petroleum and the loan agreements are for certain individuals and the close proximity to the Office of the President. These shady deals are beneficial for the ones in power, but not the Republic itself.

That’s why the President and the Office of the President knows that. If it follows the General Principals and implements the R-ARCSS. That would stifle and make it harder, if not impossible to sign on to such deals. The profits and the revenue from petroleum couldn’t get siphoned or get accessible to a chosen few. As the Financial Management and Oversight of such would unravel these sorts of agreement. Which is the reason why the IMF and World Bank now stops loaning funds to the South Sudan.

Do I think President Kiir will risk more financial transparency and mechanisms? No, not at this very moment he will not. Even if it hurts or cripples his government. Kiir will not empty his pockets or risk the growing wealth surrounding him. R-ARCSS was signed by him, but most likely never thought things would go down like this. He risked certain aspects, because he thought he could get away with that.

Now the greed and the powerful is unmasked. The Petro-Dollars are running wild in the Office of the President. While they know have to decide to continue to follow reforms or guidelines to loans from IMF/WB, which means to reform the financial institutions and mechanisms. Or forgo these while hoping for other means to bail the government out with fiscal funds. As the petroleum is sold with futures and insider trading, which is not benefiting the state or the people of South Sudan either. Peace.

The Art of Deficit Financing: Budget 2022/23 and the worrying affects of the growing debt…

The proposed budget for FY2O22/23 hos increased to UGX 47.25 trillion from the approved budget of UGX 44.77 trillion in FY2O21/22. ln the proposed budget, recurrent expenditures amount to UGX 33.54 trillion (71%) while development expenditures amount to UGX 13.70 trillion (129%). Worryingly, the projected revenue collections of UGX 25.54 trillion cannot fund the country’s entire recurrent expenditures” (Opposition Response to the Annual Budget Estimates for FY 2022/23, 03.05.2022).

When you read the first numbers on the Budget for the Financial Year of 2022/23 you see a problem that has been a long lingering issue. The National Resistance Movement (NRM) and Government of Uganda (GoU) has done this for several of years now. The state has banked on loans and grants to cover the deficits. While the state is budgeting with a deficit financing method, which is far from covering fiscal funds by the lack of domestic revenue. That’s why the rising debt and the cycle of recycling debt isn’t making things better.

Just read this paragraph here:

It is critical to note that debt management costs hove risen from UGX 8.58 trillion in FY2017/18 and ore projected to be UGX 15.94 trillion in FY2022/23. This translates to on increment of 86%. The costs take first coll on the budget to cater for interest payments, commitment charges, debt management fees and amortisation. Therefore, from the onset 33% of the proposed budget will

not be available for service delivery. instead, it will be utilised for payment of partial debt commitments” (Opposition Response to the Annual Budget Estimates for FY 2022/23, 03.05.2022).

Just seeing this number, as you see the lack of domestic revenue to cover the budget of 47 trillion shillings, which is only at the level of 25 trillions. While the project debt management is put to about 16 trillions shillings. That means most of the domestic revenue would be used to pay old debt. Unless, the state plans to take out more loans and recycle debt to pay the old debt. That is just pushing the problem further down the line and get more interests as well. Therefore, the state finances isn’t tricky anymore, but a tragic phenomenon. These sorts of numbers are getting closer to default and a possible debt trap at one point. As the state needs more loans to cover current loans. That is not how to run a nation and neither how to run a fiscal responsible government.

The numbers becomes even more striking:
“The advance effect of this astronomical level of borrowing is felt through interest payments of over UGX 5.5 trillion in FY2O22/23 rising from UGX 2.4 trillion in FY2017/18. An increment of 130%. This is coupled by external debt repayments that ore projected at UGX 2.4 trillion in FY2022/23 rising from UGX 589 billion in FY2017/18. An increment of 307%. These toke first coll on the revenue collection and reduces funds available for service delivery” (Opposition Response to the Annual Budget Estimates for FY 2022/23, 03.05.2022).

We see the debt management and now we see the rising interest payments are also doing the same. The ones that has been crying wolf and worried for the rising debt portfolio is catching up with the government. The Ministry of Finance and Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED) has failed to comply with the mechanisms and the codes of Public Finance and Management Act. Clearly, the Government and the all the Ministries has to be following suit.

These sorts of numbers should strike fear of a debt default and a crashing economy. The art of deficit financing … is now becoming a growing issue. The state cannot hide from this and this should worry the citizens. As there is nothing given that the creditors will be merciful or give way. They might … be vengeful and take collateral over failure to repay the debt. Peace.

President Museveni’s 2022 Labour Day was all about micro-finance and cassava…

Before our time, no government was giving money to the people to get out of poverty. Getting out of poverty was everyone’s private business. If you wanted to get out of poverty that was your own private issue. But we (NRM) have been giving money [to citizens ] since the time of Entandikwa, then prosperity for all… But all this time, the responsibility was being taken by government officials. That was where the confusion started from” – President Yoweri Tibuhurwa Kaguta Museveni (01.05.2022).

It is just like President Museveni wants to sound like he invented everything. He speaks like no government have ever had social security nets or unemployment programs. Yes, he claims to be the first one, but there been plenty of governments who has made this happen. FDR in the United States did it through various of programs in the New Deals in the 1930s and several other nations has used socialist programs to get people out of poverty through various of social security schemes. This here is a fraud and a fake. A manner of which you take credit and say you invented the Micro-Financing schemes and the first to do it. That is really foolish, but that is the Ugandan President of 2022. Micro-Financing and Micro-Credit was introduced in the 1990s in Uganda, but it was already a thing from the 1970s. So, it wasn’t only done in Uganda, but done so in Bangladesh and elsewhere before Museveni came into power.

I heard Filbert calling me a chief worker. I’m not a worker; I’m a bourgeois. I’m part of the middle class. You can’t call middle-class a worker. That’s not an ideological definition. Of course I work, but I work as a member of the middle class” (Museveni, 01.05.2022).

This is maybe the first time he doesn’t call himself a farmer or a son of peasant. I’m shocked and in awe. His one of the richest people on the continent and still he describes himself as “middle-class”. Like we are supposed to believe he only earns the millions of shillings he gets through his salary.

We need a workforce of very many workers. There is a way for that. The Parish Development Model should kickstart us to have about 60 million workers” (Museveni, 01.05.2022).

Uganda is estimated to have around 48 million citizens by 1st July 2022 based on projections of United Nations data. Out of this about 30% of these are adolescents, meaning a third of the population isn’t eligible for full-time work since they are not of age to do so. Because adolescence is from 10 years to 19 years old. This is based on data from UNFPA from a few years ago. Still, this all shows that the President have clearly the wrong memo about 60 million workers in Uganda. That means everyone from toddlers to the elderly… will work on the field or become a part of the rampant gig-economy.

Part I:

We want everyone in the Parish who has access to land to join a Parish Development SACCO. It doesn’t matter if they have money to not. They should just prove that they have land to do agriculture” (Museveni, 01.05.2022).

Part II:

If you have agricultural land, do not work only for the stomach. You should also work for the pocket” (Museveni, 01.05.2022).

It is really weird the way this is said on labour day. As the micro-finance scheme is so vital in it. The sort of amplified SACCO and NAADs called Parish Development Model (PDM). Where every farmer has to be part of it and register to have access. So, just like in the Soviets every farmer should be part of a scheme and earn from it. Which is very ironic, as he asks of everyone to work for their pockets. That is initially wanting everyone to be profit driven and incentive by currency. Not be content with having enough food or shelter, but supposed to also strive for surplus funds. However, if it was that easy. His government would have made it happen over the last 35 years or so. It is really tragic that all of the schemes since launching in the 1990s are not working and they continue to relaunch them in new names. Just like they did with the PDM, Emyooga and Operation Wealth Creation. It’s all the same gig, built on the same foundation, but changing its name and partly how it’s operating. Nevertheless, it doesn’t come to anything and is only a money-pit. As its not giving incentives or the ability to create natural growth. That’s why we are seeing this sort of talk and it’s the failure of the President who continues to beg people to think of profits and not of leisure.

Last quote:

If there is no bread eat cassava. Africans really confuse themselves, they are worried about shortage of wheat supply caused by Russian Ukraine War. If there is no wheat, please eat cassava. Myself I don’t eat bread” (Museveni, 01.05.2022).

Do you ever wonder, if someone lives in a bubble and doesn’t see what people are seeing? Because, this man thinks this is splendid advice. The sort of talk that only shows his isn’t concerned and doesn’t feel the plights of the commoner. No, he is beyond that and telling the peasants to be happy with what they have and not strive for more. Which is ironic, as he has spoken of people wishing of wealth, think of their pocket, but they got to settle on cassava.

This shows how out of touch the President is and it’s not shocking as his ticking closer to 40 years in power. The President has lived in his bubble for all of these years and with more and more yes-men. People are just complying and not giving him any good advice. He orders, directs and tell how everyone is supposed to move. This speech was no difference. That is very obvious. As he believes in this 1990s mechanism and thinks the PDM will make a difference, which will be far from the truth. If the PDM would work, the Emyooga, the PDM and all the Micro-Finance institutions would have ushered in a new era already. However, it haven’t and that’s because the Republic and the nation isn’t built for it. The markets, the people and the structure isn’t ready for it. This is just a fact and it’s been proven time, and time again.

There is a need for a new direction and aims, which will improve people’s lives, as these short-term incentives only takes a few people that far and when the cash is low. They are back to nothing and with a loan to pay-off in their name. That’s why this is going nowhere and fast. It doesn’t matter how many times the President says people should work for their pockets. When there is few too little jobs, low salaries and rising prices, running inflations and lack of development in general. That’s all the fault of the President and his government who hasn’t served the community and citizens.

Nevertheless, the President will never take any accountability and he will blame everyone else. Now people should chew cassava, join a SACCO and think about their pockets. However, it isn’t that easy and when you cannot get your produce to the market or even have an ability to earn. Why should you or even be concerned with the pleas of the old man?

Well… he just wants to be right, but at this his wrong. His doing the same trick, as he promised in the 1990s and think it can work in 2020s. Well… the old man is late and he should reconfigure and find tricks that fits the vibrant markets of this era and not continue with the schemes of the Structural Adjustment Programs. Peace.

Opinion: “Pastor” Kasolo’s prosperity gospel … Part II

Spend only when you must. I teach you this so that you save. Saving is the major point. For anyone to become rich, you must have a business that gives you money every day. If you are a man or woman, and you wake up to do nothing, I don’t what to call you. Every human being must save money every day. Even beggars on the streets earn money every day, but for you, you are not earning anything. Vend sugarcanes or fry chapati, but to get out of poverty, you must have a business that earns you money every day. Other than that, you are off track” – State Minister for Microfinance Haruna Kyeyune Kasolo (Kenneth Kazibwe – ‘Spend less, save every day, you will soon become rich- advises Minister Kasolo’ 30.04.2022, NilePost)

Yet again, the Minister and Prosperity Gospel provider, the reverend of promising wealth, Haruna Kasolo has returned. Because the end goal in life is to get wealthy, rich and living large. Not living within our means or having stability. No, the National Resistance Movement (NRM) cannot ensure or secure social security. Neither can the NRM ensure policies or markets of which is stable enough for businesses to thrive in. That’s why the prosperity gospel is sickening.

The NRM and Kasolo’s party has soon had 4 decades in power. Nevertheless, there isn’t any growth or possible change, which is significant. The public isn’t the GDP growth, but they are eating accordingly to their pocket. The NRM has created a gig economy and a get-quick-rich schemes as state programmes, which I can promise you will not last. It isn’t far from a pyramid-schemes to the Operation Wealth Creation, neither is it far to Emyooga or the Paris Development Model. The state is just giving short-sighted monetary programmes without the institutions or the markets for the public to trade. There isn’t a natural growth and neither is there a framework to make it possible.

The NRM is artificially funding small pockets of society and without a long-term plan. There is only incentives and programmes, which is made within the road-maps of elections, but not having protocol or ideals on how to implement. That’s why today’s message is insincere.

Yes, savings are good and people should save money. They should be able to pocket and have money for rainy-days. As every day isn’t sunny and the sun doesn’t always shine. However, when you live on gigs, hands-to-mouth and barely scraping by. Its a lot to ask… those people to save and able to put money away. When they are not having enough food for electricity, airtime or food for that matter. It is really showing the hubris and lack of code, as the poor cannot save, because they are already prioritizing what they have and spending it as they see fit. To ensure their basics is met and needs of their loved ones.

As he continues:

Salary earners who don’t have daily income generating activity always forms long lines at the bank to withdraw money at the end of the month. They are badly off. A salary can never make you rich. A person’s wealth is determined by their daily saving. So, if you don’t have a business that earns you money every day, after here, go and start it. Stay home women, make sure you have a project at home that earns you money every day” (Kasolo, 30.04.2022).

This MP and Minister has clearly forgotten the plights of the citizens and poverty. It is not like these has the time or ability to start a business. Families with kids, housing and rent to pay, rampant inflations and lacking concern to the devalued salaries in comparison to the prices on necessities, which is growing by the day.

The ones that is living on salary and has a stable job. As long as that is paid out on time can ensure some stability and give a person the ability to get by. Plenty of people don’t want to be rich, but just live and be content. Salary can also be a result of the education and the profession a person has. Therefore, the Minister is forgetting how people are earning money as civil servants and government workers. Everyone cannot be farmers and wait for the prices from traders buying their produce. Neither can everyone have a hobby or a plot where they can grow a cash-crop. Therefore, the Minister should be sincere about this.

His speaking like there is a middle class and people can afford to save money. That everyone has the dream and the vision of getting wealthy. Most people want a house, food security and have a good life with family. That is more enriching that fat pockets and lack of integrity. Alas, that is why the Minister has become a Prosperity Gospel peddler and not an honest politician. The Minister has spread this message for at least two years now. Last time I commented on it was in 2020. So, this is his stick… Peace.

Opinion: The Crocodile says the businesses are sabotaging the government…

We must practise honest and ethical business practices. Businesses cannot purport to support the government by day and sabotage the same government by night and then after play the victim. It is imperative for us all to make strategic choices for the best interests of our country” – President Emmerson Mnangagwa (29.04.2022).

The Crocodile of Harare is unreal, the one who is the Commander in Chief and the Head of State. President Mnangagwa said this at the Zimbabwe International Trade Fair (ZITF) in Bulawayo yesterday. It is really rich coming from and he should know better.

The financial structure, the fiscal policies and the polices of the economy is all coming from the Government. The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) and Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MoFED) has to take accountability and what sort of actions they have done.

Mnangagwa’s regime is at fault. The economy is the ‘albatross’ that ZANU-PF has no idea how to control or adopt too. The ZANU-PF only knows how to scheme, loot and siphoned government funds. Therefore, Mnangagwa shouldn’t point a finger and address things internally.

The lack of working policies on the currency, monetary policies or even financial instruments. That isn’t the fault of the traders, importers or exporters of Zimbabwe. No, that is the fault of the RBZ and MoFED. They are maybe inept or cronies with no clue of what they are doing. The ZANU-PF isn’t acting sincere here and passing the buck actually.

Mnangagwa should be disgraced by this and the way he puts the fault on the industries or businesses itself. They are working under his regime and following the rules, which his government is putting on them. If the state says one thing, the businesses has to comply. That’s why the premise of the sabotage is flawed. The Ministries and the Parliament can put forward motions and legislation that changes the market-place for one commodity or one type of import. Therefore, to blame the businesses is weak tea and not true…

The President should look into his own and the appointees of ZANU-PF. Mnangagwa should hold a Politburo and plan the steps ahead to ensure the businesses can thrive and work. However, the state is more busy on get-rich-schemes for itself, than actually serving the public. This is why the state cannot find a measure or a way of making monetary policies working or stabilizing inflation for that matter.

The ZANU-PF and Mnangagwa needs to get a grip. They are not the victims, but they are blaming the ones who are living under its reign. The victims are the citizens and the businesses, which is hurting, because of the inflation, lack of stable currency and ability to forecast the market. That’s why it’s risky and could backfire to invest in the first place. However, ZANU-PF will not say that… we know that already.

Mnangagwa needs to fix the ‘Albatross’ and get things in order. Nevertheless, I wouldn’t count on it. That would stop the possibility of scams, schemes and means of siphoning funds from the state coffers into “private investors” accounts. Peace.

Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ): Response to CZI Paper on Currency Situation (23.04.2022)

Malawi: Malawi Police Service – MPS suspends interview session with ACB Director General (22.04.2022)

Opinion: Half of a yearly budget wasted on corruption… and its annually [not a one of a kind grand corruption scheme]

According to a report, Uganda loses at least UGX 20 trillion annually to corruption. The Inspector-General of Government, Beti Kamya, told journalists that if at least half of that money (UGX 10 trillion) was saved per year, each parish would be able to get UGX 1 billion under the Parish Development Model” (NBS Television, 21.04.2022).

In Kampala this should haunt the institutions, the ministries and shake the whole Entebbe State House. If not both Kololo and Nakasero should be frightened by this report. That was if the rulers and the representatives was afraid of black-lash or ramifications of a report. A report that has such a vast result and damaging numbers, which could easily come to half of last years budget.

The last years budget was 44 Trillion Shillings in the budget year of 2021/22 and the estimates for 2022/23 is about 47 Trillions Shillings. With that in mind the corruption is about half of that one too. The numbers are staggering and isn’t only showing a little flex. No, the numbers are showing that it’s the norm. The corruption is a fact of life and way of living.

It doesn’t matter what authorities, bodies and mechanisms the state has… when half the budget can be siphoned, stolen or vanish without a trace. “Missing Funds” is a proverb in the vocabulary for a reason. It wouldn’t be a proverb and words of wisdom, as ghosts and fake tenders appears on a regular basis. Paying for projects only on paper and teachers who has never had a class in up-country.

Yes, there is a reason for all of this. The money is eaten and nothing to show for it. Except some spoiled brats big parties and SUVs for the ruling elite. They also can afford to rent jets to get medical treatment abroad. While hospitals are falling part, schools not having equipment and teacher being a boda-boda rider on the side. That’s all, because the state doesn’t’ have the funds or the allocated resources to finance these entities.

However, it has money for vanity projects of the President and his inner-circle. They have money for businesses, farms and whatever in need. They got money to pay-off opposition turned yellow and brighten a road for an official visit from a far-away land. Nevertheless, not enough to splash on vital institutions or government entities. That’s why UMEME is running black-outs and far to the nearest water-tap in region of your liking.

That’s why I am not shocked that the money goes missing. It is half a yearly budget wasted, gone missing and not being where it should be. Half a yearly budget eaten by corrupt bureaucrats and high ranking officials. This is done yearly and shows at what extent. It isn’t CHOGM money or GAVI funds of Muhwezi. No, this a yearly enterprise and planned efforts. Like someone is just taking the money van from the Bank of Uganda and directing to whoever it was designated without any receipts or transactional documents to show for it. The money was just taken away and “given” to whomever it was decreed to and that’s the end of it.

20 Trillion Shilling yearly or $5,662,905,997.73 US Dollars. That’s over 5 billion 662 million U.S. Dollars squandered and gone away to pay off whoever and for whatever reason. Which is not useful and is never received where it was intended to be… That’s 5 billion USD gone in the wind…

This is numbers that are staggering and outrageous. It is just really insane, but it shows what sort of government that is crippling the state and it’s for a reason there is no service delivery. The state got no money, since it is either siphoned or they are paying debts. There is little money to pay for things after that… that makes sense and is tragic. This is the nation that Museveni built. Peace.