Opinion: The CSTO seems to be over…

This week has shown that the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is a pointless and worthless defence pact. The nation in the alliance are not safeguarded or defended. The main sponsor or biggest army, the Russian army seems ambivalent or too busy in the Ukrainian invasion to help out others. The exhaust of the invasion of Ukraine is now showing Kremlin to be powerless and lack military strength to support other member states of the CSTO.

The CSTO was supposed to defend and help out Armenia this week. However, they never shown up and didn’t mind that Azerbaijan did attack Armenia. They could just violate the territories of Armenia and the CSTO wouldn’t do anything. Even when the Armenian government did invoke Article 4 in the CSTO agreement. This just shows that the CSTO is becoming a redundant defence pact. They cannot even show up when a nation call upon them.

In the same regard, which is even more striking is the Tajikistan attacks on Kyrgyzstan. Tajikistan has attacked and went into contested areas. Where the Tajikistan armed forces has gone after villagers, and attacked civilians too. There been at least three ceasefires, but Tajikistan has violated them again and again this week. Therefore, the CSTO cannot even look into the acts made by the nations itself.

The CSTO seems like a lost project. Especially, when nations who is members can attack each other without any ramifications and when a member is violated without any reactions or seriousness of it. Armenia is a nation like that. A nation that is an ally of Russia and still nothing. Azerbaijan seems to be living large and be okayed by Putin. Since, there is nothing of substance in concerns to military assistance or even diplomatic measures. The Azerbaijani forces can just do what it does and there is no noise.

The same can be said about the Tajikistan army who are violating and having skirmishes on Kyrgyzstan territories. That has been done and the CSTO hasn’t invoked any meeting or dialogue of any sense. No, the CSTO is a bystander and wondering what it does Certainly, Putin would support the aggressor. Since, Putin prefers dictators and tyrannies over democracies.

That’s why Putin is supporting Azerbaijan and Tajikistan in these wars. Even when these are deliberately showing the West and everyone else that CSTO is a dead-fish in the water. There is nothing there and it won’t care about the nations itself. The Russian army is maybe to damaged and stretched in war in Ukraine. That it cannot help or be at service to the member states of CSTO.

That just shows the weakness of the whole CSTO. As it all evolved around the Russian Federation and the “superpower” it was meant to be. The only thing it does is validating the sense of tyrants standing together and allowed to attack other sovereigns. While the CSTO “values” or actual “defence pact” is worthless. It is not even worth the ink on the paper it was written on.

That’s what is striking here. These wars in Central Asia or the Caucasus is only showing what Putin is losing. His not a feared man and neither is the organizations he has built. If the CSTO was supposed to be a reaction or a defence pact in comparison to NATO. It has surely lost its value and is meaningless. That’s obvious when member states attack each other or a member state is attacked; and nothing is happening at all.

The CSTO is bound to fail and dissolve. The wars and skirmishes in Caucasus is showing that. If this is a plan. Certainly, Putin is losing influence and only weakening his own case. Because he have no Defence Pact and leverage with former USSR republics. They are more independent and don’t even have to be concerned with Kremlin or what Moscow might want. There is no connection or no bother really. They know Putin or Kremlin won’t mind either. He just looks away and is unbothered about the whole thing. Peace.

Opinion: Kenyatta will miss his old office very quickly…

It has been announced that the former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta has been appointed to mediate and be a “Special Envoy” to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Ethiopia. He will have to partake in the insurgencies in the DRC and the conflict in Northern Ethiopia (Tigray). Therefore, he has a massive take and lots of responsibility overnight.

The Former President be working with Heads of State in the DRC. Where he has to be working directly with the authorities in Kinshasa. That’s the place he has a shot and possibility to make a difference. Kenyatta already has a working relationship with President Felix Tshisekedi. Therefore, if there is hope for any substantial progress or delivery. He should hope to get somewhere in the DRC.

The M23 latest peace agreement was already made in Nairobi with the Nairobi Declaration. That’s why, Kenyatta has goodwill and could use the working relations from his years in office to make a difference, but we shouldn’t have to high hopes. However, we have to take what positives there are before downplaying this role and office.

On the other hand, in Ethiopia and Addis Ababa, is a place where Kenyatta might not be so much welcome. There won’t be much fanfare or acceptance of him. He will be a nonce and nuisance quickly. The Addis Ababa government have to already work with the African Union Envoy for the Horn, Olusegun Obasanjo. The former Nigerian President have struggled to bring any dialogue or talks between the stakeholders. This work has been stifled and his had an unforgiving role, as the FDRE and the Government of Tigray has both ceased talks or negotiations in general.

Obasanjo have tried and his hands are tied. We know the FDRE is directing how the AU Envoy can operate. While people will quickly question the mandate and what sort of mission Kenyatta has. This was quickly launched, as Kenyatta retired from the Office of Presidency. It is a way of softening the blow and give him a purpose. Though, what will the Ministry of Foreign Affairs tell Kenyatta and what is his anticipated to do?

Will he make phone-calls, conduct field-work or even try to get stakeholders to meet each other? A man of peace can do a lot. He can do little or a lot. If any of the 10 years in Office will tell us. The former President could easily create a scandal or a way of using the office for enriching himself. However, it would be hard to find a way to make this happen. Nevertheless, people shouldn’t be shocked, if he found a way or a scheme to get some additional funds. That is his way and how he has run his government.

Ruto surely sent him on his merry. Giving him a token of appreciation and an honourable task. Kenyatta should use all diplomatic channels and shouldn’t expect much. It isn’t like his through IGAD, AU or any other body. No, his just appointed by the incumbent Kenyan President and that isn’t setting a strong mandate.

This is sort of like the mandate or role Stephan Kalonzo Musyoka had in the South Sudan in the previous term. He was the Special Envoy to South Sudan and he surely cannot show much, if anything He got a few free trips to Juba, but cannot be said to helped the process significantly.

This here office should be gazetted and the mandate should be set forward. Also, the current President should give a time-frame and possible plans for it. Since, it shouldn’t just be something to keep Kenyatta busy. Kenyatta should have a target to work towards in coordination with Kinshasa and Addis Ababa. However, time will tell if they will let him or see him as outside noise. Peace.

Opinion: Ruto – Better to come slow and correct…

Ruto received a congratulatory message from Moroccan King His Majesty King Mohammed VI. Kenya rescinded its recognition of Western Sahara and orders the shutdown of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic’s representative office in Kenya. He indicated support 4 UN-induced statehood” (The Daily Jubba, 14.09.2022).

It isn’t more than a day since President William Ruto has been sworn-in. Yesterday was the day of honour and procedure, as Ruto was starting his term as Kenyan President. Today, the reality of his office is starting. Now he has to take control, decisions and appoint the right people to office. He has to collectively find the rights persons for the Cabinet Secretaries and other vital roles of the State.

That’s why Ruto should use this time with caution. It will do no good to be brash, swift and without care. The President should slow down and recollect. He should envision and plan things ahead. With the people he trust and with the counsels that can advice properly.

Because, today we saw a rash act, which can easily get diplomatic trouble. Not that it can create a war or more conflict. No, but it can hurt interests on all sides. The Kingdom of Morocco might be happy with the progress. The King of Morocco got a diplomatic victory. While the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic or the annexed Western Sahara government feels betrayed. What is even more striking was the SADR President Brahim Ghaliat even was at Kasarani stadium yesterday.

As a President, Ruto needs to consider his steps and how he operates. He isn’t in opposition or without power. Now his word has a value and he can purposely change dynamics. Yes, as the Deputy President and as a Cabinet Secretary, Ruto has had this too. However, now it’s even more prestige and pressure on his name. His words are even more powerful and meaningful. That’s why he should use that with caution.

President Ruto can by quickly tweeting in favour of the Moroccan ambassador dismiss the cause of the SADR. Even if that wasn’t the case and play along to the tune of the Kingdom. In that fashion his showing diplomatic weight behind the King of Morocco and disregarding the President Ghaliat. Therefore, he should walk slowly and not try to run to fast.

President Ruto might not even know how Algeria has invested in this and worked for the liberation of SADR. The way and the long liberation war of the Polisario Frente either. There are many things at play and not only the word of the King. No, there is more at stake and Ruto should have advisers on his side to give him proper counsel before revoking or rescinding diplomatic ties. This could have other implications, which he cannot phantom right now.

Yes, Ruto deleted the Tweet, but the news is out there. The cat is out of bag and he ran to the finish line a bit too fast. That’s why he should take things slow and configure the message before its spread. Especially, in concern to foreign affairs and in order to diplomatic missions as well. This has to be played wisely and not just with a snap of a finger.

That’s when things backfires and he can look stupid. Ruto can become humiliated and look foolish. A President don’t want that… and no Head of State wants to be taken for a fool. That’s why my advice to him… is to take it slow and grow into the role. No need to speed-walk or run a marathon. There is enough decisions to take and enough scandals to arrive on his desk. Therefore, he should recollect and smell the coffee.

Instead, he has already created a farce and it could have been avoided, easily. Peace.

Uganda-Rwanda Tensions XXX: Joint Statement on the Ministers of Foreign Affairs during the Bilateral Diplomatic and Political Consultations held at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Kigali Rwanda (01.09.2022)

Ethiopia: Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) President Debretsion Gebremichael letter to the International Communty (23.08.2022)

Kosovo: President Vjosa Osmani-Sadriu letter to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (24.08.2022)

Ethiopia: Global Society of Tigray Scholars and Professionals (GSTS) – Re: On the Joint Visit on the Special Envoys of Eu, the US, and the United Nations to Mekelle, Tigray (10.08.2022)

African Union (AU): Visit of the African Union High Representative for the Horn of Africa to Addis Ababa on 4 August 2022 (05.08.2022)

Opinion: Museveni isn’t sensing the times his in…

President Yoweri Tibuhurwa Kaguta Museveni calls history “current affairs” and uses old diplomatic spats or conflicts in light of today. However, his forgetting one thing in the picture that the times has changed as well. Yes, Uganda is a sovereign and should be allowed to make friends or allies with whoever they deem fit. Nevertheless, in doing so.. you cannot expect former allies and friends to be as warm to you. When you have decided to pick a side in a conflict.

The conflict Museveni has picked a side in is Ukraine. Not by abstaining a vote in the United Nations, but by association with Russians and doing business with Kremlin. That is a choice and a decision made by default. The same defending Moscow’s reasons for invading and wanting to annexation of Ukrainian territories. That’s what Museveni is signalling… and saying after the visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

After that visit the United States sent their Ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield. The information and the messages sent from Museveni is clear. That he wants to be allied with Russia and it’s beneficial to him. He don’t even mind to cease or see the end of aide from the U.S. and says Uganda could thrive without support from the West. Certainly, if he would do that… the Ugandan President is gambling with his future and possible default of the ever growing loans in the middle of a downturn in the economy and rising inflation. It isn’t like the economy is booming or having any sort of upturn. Instead the financial implications would be horrific and it’s like his reckless about it.

Museveni should study the times.. there is a realignment of allies and who is working together. The President is either on the side of the West or heading into the hands of Kremlin. The Ukrainian invasion is only showing who is willing to back and be partners of Putin. The others who are stepping to the other side and defending the independence of Ukraine. Museveni is siding with Putin and therefore, also in turn turning on the West. He cannot have it both ways now.

A man of history should show how it went with Said Barre, the dictator of Somalia who went from a Soviet ally into an American asset. The same way can be seen here and Museveni is trying to play these diplomatic games. However, it is a sort of cold-war-esque era now. The beginning of it and the rising sanctions on Russia is a proof of that. Now, that Museveni sides with Kremlin, he shouldn’t expect so much goodwill from Washington D.C. Nevertheless, trust me when the push get to shove. The Ugandan President could regret doing this, because this could make other things harder later down the line.

Yes, the President is in his right not to ask for “instructions” and live as a “sovereign”. Still, when a sovereign makes a choice and a decision. He opens one door and closes another one. That’s a way of life. Museveni by this choice is more valuable to Lavrov and Putin than to Biden. This is what is initially boiling down too.

I’m sure Museveni would miss the $950 million per year in U.S. assistance to the Ugandan coffers. If the U.S. decided not to send these funds or cease. I’m pretty sure the Kampala diplomatic core would go on begging expedition and hire more K Street lobbyist to re-engage the Washington D.C. back on board. However, it will not be that easy. When the President is picking sides and he cannot stand-by both. Especially, when his supporting the imperial war in Ukraine. Defending the aggressor and the ones behind the evils done to Kyiv.

It is like Museveni don’t see this picture and thinks his so far away that it don’t matter to him. However, when the millions of dollars stops from the Western powers. Certainly, the debt-recycling cannot be salvaged and lack of budget assistance will be severe. Since, Museveni has built a career on living of these funds. While not having the need to be accountable by it.

The tides are turning and it’s not the era of flip-flopping between the East and the West. No, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has forever altered that. If Museveni cannot see that. Well, the lavish life in Rwakitura farm or any of the State Lodges for that matter. The Entebbe State House seems decided and because of that. If it faces consequences later down the line. It cannot cry havoc or act like a victim. It choose Putin and Kremlin by default of doing so. The Ugandan President should expect love and support from the West at the rate he was used too. Peace.

South Sudan: Speech by His Excellency, the President on the Extension of R-ARCSS (04.08.2022)