South Sudan: “Ref: Closure of Bank accounts and Recovery of Money held by Gen. Thomas Cirillo Swaka and his kin Feuni Cirillo in Kenyan Banks” (10.02.2017)

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Opinion: The Kabila Government will use all excuses in the book to postpone the next Presidential elections; because the elite and Kabila fear for losing it all!

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Even if the stars stop to rotate around the planet earth, still there will be another excuse for Joseph Kabila to continue to be the Executive of the Democratic Republic of Congo. The Kabilists will defend him even as his FARDC kills civilians, that the M23 are returning into the North Kivu or even as ADF-NALU are doing their thing to. There will be all sort of excuses like the recent ones!

“Budget Minister Pierre Kangudia said the cost of organising the poll, which was said to be $1.8bn (£1.5bn), was too expensive. Last year the government and the opposition agreed that new elections would be held by the end of 2017. President Joseph Kabila’s final mandate ran out in November 2016” (BBC News, 2017).

So it isn’t just the sudden violence in Kasai-Oriental, Nord-Kivu or other province that creates issues, there are also the budget and fiscal issues. Therefore, you know that with a giant nation, it comes with great cost to hold an election. So the state needs sufficient fiscal power and funds to hold an election. That should be possible to save up to during the recent term under President Kabila, which knew clearly that his term was over in November 2016. Still, he is sitting in power and suspended the election to hold him in power. So the use of lacking funds together with the direct aid for elections in 2016 came also from United Kingdom and other nations, so that the DRC could hold a Presidential election. Still, the Kabila government saw no reason to hold it last year.

Therefore they had to explain it further:

“The Congolese election commission said in October 2016 that it would need until the end of July 2017 to update its voter register in the massive country, which has a population of almost 80 million, according to the World Bank. The commission said that elections would take another 504 days to organize after that, suggesting a vote would not be held until at least 2018” (…) “Kabila has been in power in Congo since 2001, when his father and predecessor as president, Laurent-Desire Kabila, was assassinated. Presidents are allowed to serve a maximum of two consecutive terms in Congo, which has never experienced a peaceful transfer of power since independence in 1960” (Gaffey, 2017).

So it isn’t just now the funds, it’s also apparent the amount of people and registration of them. The state doesn’t have time or ability to know, they could do so for the first two terms of Kabila, when he was legitimately elected after he was selected in 2001, but now he is out of time and needs to buy all the time of the world. Since he worries about his fate when leaves office. The President Kabila fears for the wealth and his businesses, as well as the business of his sister and the rest of his elite. Kabila fears for losing out on the mining business and the agreements made while he was president. He and his elite could lose them or get caught out of the loop, as a new President and his regime might even suspend these agreements as they are not paying the sufficient taxes or even being transparent enough.

So Kabila wants to buy all the time possible, use all sort of tricks out of his sleeve, even sell his wife to a public scandal if he has too. Already killing innocent and creating chaos to sufficiently use force and say that the regions needs peace before the state can hold an election. As the MONUSCO and the FARDC cannot contain all these rebels and militants that spring up when the President needs them. As President Kabila could create peace when he got into power, he wants to be able to show that so you know you need him!

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Kabila regime will not go silent and not go easy, there are too much money at stake and too much to lose. Just like the Wall Street will not accept to be totally controlled or regulated, the same is with these autocratic leaders like Kabila. Kabila sees no reason to disclose his companies or his wealth, neither the connections he has with the export industries. Therefore he fears the undisclosed monies and estates might show his embezzlement and corrupt behaviour in power. Surely, he will inter-connected in ways that is similar in other weaker institutional states like Angola or others, where the Executive and Elite has direct-cut the deals and therefore has skimmed of the deals with international businesses.

So now that the term has ended and the gig is up, Kabila and his comrades’ fears for their live, their pocket and the will of the people, if it fails the house-of-cards could vanish. That is painful and the truth, as the trusts and the companies could get frozen accounts and the business agreements could be broken for breach of lawful activity. Therefore the Kabila regime doesn’t want their accounts to be ransacked and their wealth to be lost. They have been eaten for over a decade and do not want to lose the gravy-train.

Kabila knows all of this and therefore use all methods and all of ways to politically keep his executive position and mandate that he has had. Therefore Kabila uses all tactics and all reasoning to keep the election out of his way and the Republic’s way. Because of the risk of losing his riches and spoils, the nation and republic might be poor, but he is wealthier than GOD. Therefore Kabila doesn’t want to looked into or show the records of transactions to the public.

Kabila fears this and his elite around him don’t want him to fall, because their future and their riches is also at stake. Therefore they accept his misuse of funds and army to silence opposition. That Kabila detain and sends opposition into exile. He does it to silence the ones that show the truth of the Kabila regime. Kabila cannot accept the truth, because the truth will reveal deals and agreements that will throw shades into mixed state regulations and the Kabila elite, which we know is there but to an extent that we never thought was possible.

If he had been a peaceful and honest President, he wouldn’t fear to step down and give the mantle to the next candidate. President Kabila would not use this ways to get rid of the possibility for another election if they weren’t afraid of the consequences of what is ahead. The Consequence of what can happen with him and his estates. Certainly the uncertain attitude and fortitude to stay, proves that there is too much that the current leadership doesn’t want to show the citizens, the republic and the world. Peace.

Reference:

BBC News – ‘DR Congo election: ‘We cannot afford $1.8bn cost’, says minister’ (16.02.2017) link: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-38988632

Gaffey, Conor – ‘CONGO: ELECTIONS IN 2017 ARE TOO EXPENSIVE, SAYS BUDGET MINISTER’ (16.02.2017) link: http://europe.newsweek.com/congo-elections-2017-too-expensive-says-budget-minister-557461?rm=eu

Opinion: Besigye doesn’t need dialogue with Museveni!

Besigye 23.02.2016 Kasangati

Dr. Kizza Besigye and the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) do not need to have dialogue or negotiation with the National Resistance Movement (NRM) or the President himself. President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni needs more the dialogue than the FDC and their party needs it. It is the NRM government and NRM regime who needs legitimacy and needs funds. That is proven with Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group (CSBAG) who proves with the 16 trillion shillings funds the for the 2017/2018 budget of the 30 trillion shillings needed. With this in mind there is certainly that the NRM needs more international support to fix missing funds.

That Museveni would need Besigye now a year after the General Election of 2016 shows how dire the situation is, the added debt and the troubling waters on the giant infrastructure projects, as much as the missing funds for the salaries or the other financial expenses that are occurring for the government. So the proof of issues is growing as the direct budget support has dwindled down as well as the elite and the cronies still expect to be fed by the regime.

Besigye has still a forged treason case, as much as Rwenzururu king Charles Wesley Mumbere has as well. The FDC headquarters was attacked and a crime-scene as the FDC Youth and FDC P10 was attacked as the defiance campaign was even banned by the Deputy Court Justice Stephen Kavuma. As well, the Police Force under IGP Kale Kayihura monitored and followed the leadership of FDC like they we’re criminal. There were many detained and house-arrested, there was more people hurt and hospitalized by state security organization. Also, the many inflicted and detained without warrants or court order shows the impunity of the state towards the FDC.

So after this impunity, after the illegal house-arrest of Besigye and the others who has been taken into prison without any justice served, why should the FDC try to sell their soul to the Movement? That is waste of time and waste of energy, it would be like the men who traded their political lives in Nairobi talks: “The NRA and the government signed a peace and power sharing agreement in Nairobi, the Kenyan capital Dec. 17 that called for an immediate cease-fire, the freezing of all troop movements and a half share of the ruling Military Council for the NRA” (…) “The provisions of the accord were largely ignored and both sides used the lull in the fighting to reposition and resupply their forces. The guerrillas claimed the military committed widespread human rights abuses after the accord was signed” (Charles Mitchell – ‘The National Resistance Army of rebel leader Yoweri Museveni…’ 26.01.1986 link: http://www.upi.com/Archives/1986/01/26/The-National-Resistance-Army-of-rebel-leader-Yoweri-Museveni/5549507099600/ ). So the agreement done by NRA in December 1985 wasn’t a big deal, so that Museveni could do a final sting and coup to gain power, which he has never left.

A negotiation with Museveni would only enforce his rule and his longevity in power nothing else. Besigye would not be offered anything substantial; his part in the matter would end in little or nothing. FDC would get the stick, but not get the price. Just like they wouldn’t feel a difference between now and then since the price of going into partnership would benefit Museveni. The Movement would get beneficiary funding and regard internationally since FDC has a higher standing abroad than Museveni.

M7 Guards Inaguration 2016

Museveni is well-known now because of his 7 terms and his position of executive since 1986. The reality of this that a negotiation or dialogue with Museveni at this stage is redundant, unless the President all of sudden turns his own self sideways. That he would go back on all his empty promises and all of his glory. Certainly Museveni could do so, but he knows that he has too many people on his consciences to leave it all behind. The President has eaten too much of the state coffers and cannot leave the bank-accounts behind. The family is too connected and has all the leverage in the state. The movement is built around him and if he fails than the party does as well.

The Movement and Museveni would not co-sign their powers or the authority, not after the rigging and the massive misuse of the state funds, therefore the lacking funds for the current budget. Museveni knows that his loyal friends abroad will not give in to his ways anymore, therefore hoping to play other cards. Use his political brain to suck other donors in. That while waiting for more oil-monies and also trade of other with making the UPDF to mercenary army in Equatorial Guinea or South Sudan if needed. This is because they need to get fresh funding for the State House, which hasn’t paid their payment-arrears to the owners of the Okello House!

So Besigye doesn’t need Museveni at this point, he needs his party and the loyalty of his supporters. That is more than Museveni has who needs to pay for loyalty and to secure funding for the movement itself. Therefore the jobs and funds to come steady, there is always more mouths to feed and more people to silence with brown envelopes. So Museveni needs foreign support and foreign aid as the Uganda Revenue Authority has just enough regulations and taxes to bring in funds that scrape the surface, but not fill the state coffers.

So again I say and I stand by it, Museveni is the only one earning political capital on negotiations and dialogue, nothing is really to be earned by the FDC or Besigye. So with this in mind, Museveni will only gain and Besigye will only lose on it. If you know you would lose, why give way to somebody who comes to take it all and deplete it all? Peace.

Embassy of Burundi in Tanzania: “Request the Government of Tanzania to arrest those wanted Burundians who are now in Arusha for Inter Burundi Dialouge” (17.02.2017)

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Kenya: Misleading Media Reports on Regulatory Tool for Curbing Counterfeit Devices on Mobile Networks (18.02.2017)

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Kenya: Potential U.S. Military sale to Kenya in support of the fight against terrorism (18.02.2017)

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Burundi: Communique de Presse concernant les operations de World Vision International/Burundi dans la province de Karusi (15.02.2017)

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Burundi: Communique du Gouvernement sur le Dialogue InterBurundais prevu a Arusha du 16au18 Feverier 2017 (15.02.2017)

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South Sudan: Humanitarian organizations appeal for $1.6 billion amidst rising needs (13.02.2017)

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Humanitarian organizations estimate that some 7.5 million people across South Sudan are now in need of humanitarian assistance and protection.

MOGADISHU, Somalia, February 13, 2017 -Humanitarian organizations are appealing for US$1.6 billion to provide life-saving assistance and protection to 5.8 million people across South Sudan in 2017.

“The humanitarian situation in South Sudan has deteriorated dramatically due to the devastating combination of conflict, economic decline and climatic shocks,” said Mr. Eugene Owusu, the Humanitarian Coordinator for South Sudan. “In 2017, we are facing unprecedented needs, in an unprecedented number of locations, and these needs will increase during the upcoming lean season.”

Humanitarian organizations estimate that some 7.5 million people across South Sudan are now in need of humanitarian assistance and protection. Since the conflict in South Sudan began in December 2013, about 3.4 million people have been forced to flee their homes, including nearly 1.9 million people who have been internally displaced and about 1.5 million who have fled as refugees to neighbouring countries.

Horrendous atrocities have been reported, including widespread sexual violence. Food insecurity and malnutrition have skyrocketed, and the risk of famine is significant for thousands of people in conflict-affected communities and food deficit areas if early actions are not taken.

“With needs rising rapidly, we have rigorously prioritized the 2017 Humanitarian Response Plan to target those who most urgently require assistance and protection,” said Mr. Owusu. “It is imperative that this appeal is funded early, and funded fully, so that the aid workers deployed across South Sudan can respond robustly and rapidly.”

In South Sudan, humanitarian organizations use the window of opportunity provided by the dry season to deliver supplies by road. When the rains set in – usually in May – most roads become impassable and supplies must be delivered by air, multiplying the cost of the humanitarian operation, which is one of the largest and most complex in the world. Swift action during the dry season is therefore imperative.

“In 2016, we reached more than 5 million people, but the crisis deepened and spread as conflict continued. In 2017, we are determined to reach more people but we urgently need the funding to do so,” said Mr. Owusu. “I appeal to the international community, which has given so generously to this young country, to support us now. If we fail to act swiftly, lives may be lost.”

One hundred and thirty-seven aid organizations including 62 national Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) -a 55 per cent increase from 2016-, 63 international NGOs and 12 United Nations entities aim to implement projects under the 2017 Humanitarian Response Plan.

South Sudan: On the Interview with H.E. Festus Mogae, Former President of Botswana and Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission on BBC Focus on Africa and Miraya FM Dated 10.01.2017 (13.02.2017)

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