AU Commission calls for Restraint on the Djibouti-Eritrea Border (19.06.2017)

The Chairperson of the Commission appeals for calm, restraint and stresses that the AU is fully seized with the matter.

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia, June 19, 2017 – The Chairperson of the Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamat, is following the recent developments between the Republic of Djibouti and the State of Eritrea in the aftermath of Qatar’s decision to withdraw its peacekeeping troops at the Djibouti- Eritrea border.

The Chairperson of the Commission appeals for calm, restraint and stresses that the AU is fully seized with the matter. He highlighted that the AU Commission, in close consultations with the authorities in Djibouti and Eritrea, is in the process of deploying a fact-finding mission to the Djibouti-Eritrea border.

The Chairperson of the Commission stands ready to assist Djibouti and Eritrea to normalize their relations and promote good neighborliness within the framework of relevant AU instruments.

South Sudan: The National Dialogue meetings in Entebbe under the leadership of Museveni seems like a front!

Entebbe State House 26. May 2017

South Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/ Army (SPLM/A) In-Government (IG), the central leadership of South Sudan and the party of the President. This is the leadership of President Salva Kiir Mayardit and his First Vice-President (FVP) Taban Deng-Gai. They have launched the National Dialogue and the Government facilitated peace negotiations.

This is going on with the chief peacemaker President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, who has had three meetings at the State House in Entebbe in Uganda. That has happen recently with different parts som SPLM/A, but not parts of the SPLM-IO. Other parts of the National Dialogue are lacking the implementation and the needed focus of all stakeholders in the conflict. Since the peace meetings with Museveni and on accord from President Kiir haven’t included the rebels or other militias. Therefore, the SPLM/A meetings in Entebbe is more for show, than initial peace meetings. Unless, these are to reign in all parts of the SPLM/A Organization and keep them loyal to the President.

The South Sudanese meditation of Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) that we’re with the 31st Extraordinary Summit on the crisis in South Sudan, this was a planned meeting and mediation there. A meeting that had a delegation from SPLM/A-IG, but not with the President Kiir. That Festus Mogae who works for Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (JMEC), who monitors the crisis, but has a weak mandate, therefore not possible to reach the states and the violations of the agreements. The same can be said by IGAD, also the African Union is not using their powers or the essential powers to stabilize the republic. As well, as there is no will in the East African Community (EAC), to act upon the troubles and take charge, even as the peacekeepers from AU and United Nations (UN) has had the impact execpt for keeping the Internally Displaced People’s (IDPs).

So with this in mind and the refugee crisis as well from the Republic. The Ugandan counterpart is only follow protocol on accord basis with President Kiir. Since he is not involving anyone, unless Kiir gives way. Therefore, the National Dialogue with the partnership of Museveni isn’t real. The reality of the dialogue is a side-show who buys Kiir time to find ways to solve their outstanding issues. Instead of finding peace, but finding weakness of rebels so he can overpower them.

With the external facilitation is not there and strong enough to control the SPLM/A-IG or have consultation of the rebels. There are enough issues at hand, as the international organizations are feeding the needed with corridors of transport through Sudan. So there are enough issues as hand, that even rebellion and leadership problems inside the SPLM-N in Sudan. That is why you know Museveni only touches this one, because he can see fortunes coming his way later.

Bu the true peace will not come through the National Dialogue, just like the JMEC, IGAD or AU have solved the crisis and civil war between the fractions of South Sudan. It has lasted so long already and nearly been moments of rest. The arms and guns, the instability and the acts of violence continues. The innocent are fleeing and their villages are burning. This is not how it is supposed to be. Peace.

South Sudan: GoU letter to SPLM-IO – “Re: Invitation to Attend SPLM/A Consultation Meeting in Entebbe on the 16th June 2017” (15.06.2017)

South Sudan: SPLM-IO – “Re: SPLM/A Consultation on 16 June 2017 in Entebbe, Uganda” (15.06.2017)

#QatarCrisis: Eritrea-Djibouti territorial dispute over Ras Doumeira flare up as Qatari Peacekeepers leave!

In times of war, the law falls silent.

Silent enim leges inter arma” – Marcus Tullius Cicero

The Merriam Webster defines the Snowball effect like this: “a situation in which one action or event causes many other similar actions or events” (Merriam Webster). At this moment and time, the Qatar diplomatic crisis has hit another level. A level that is unbelievable. To fellow Republics on the Horn of Africa are already in a military dispute over a territory, which they have fought over twice. Last time these nations fought over it was back in 2008.

These Republics are Eritrea and Djibouti. Who are two different states and with different approach to alliances and matters in general. Eritrea has in this crisis hold itself neutral to either Saudi Arabia and the GCC, while not doing anything with it’s affiliation to Qatar. Therefore, the Djibouti did earlier cut their ties with Qatar and with that the Qatari Peacekeepers in the area has left the nation. That Djibouti is important to Ethiopia and their trade is natural as the port and railway goes from Ethiopia to Djibouti. So if Eritrea want to hit two birds with two stones, they go and bang on Djibouti.

So the sudden cutting off Qatar has lead to change of powers and also of military stronghold between Djibouti and Eritrea. As the Eritrean has reacted to and sent the army closer to the disputed area. Both nations has claims to this area. Similar to activity on the Ethiopian border, which has been disputed since the independence of Eritrea. The same seem to be the case on the Djiboutian border and land.

That is why it isn’t surprising that the Eritrean government sends army and attack when the peacekeepers who has secured the territory since the last war in 2008. Certainly, the Asmara government want to take advantage, even if it costly, as the Djibouti sends their reports straight to the African Union and the United Nations Security Council to clear the air of the vicious attack from Eritrea. So the state can be seem as warlords and criminal in their acts on international scale. This is the own making of Eritrea, as they have done in recent years. Gone into war with neighbors without winning and neither getting recognition for their military operations.

There are reports that on Monday the 19th June 2017, the UNSC will take the dispute behind closed doors before finding out solution to the stalemate and current crisis between the nations. This is a long for conflict for the territory and not the first time Eritrea does this. Certainly, the GCC should intervene and help Djibouti, especially since the Republic sided with them. If it wasn’t just play for the gallery and needed display for the GCC. So that they have enough cards in the deck to hopefully get Qatar to give-in. Instead, there isn’t any indication of acts from KSA, Bahrain or United Arab Emirates, as the soldiers and territory is supposed to be ceased.

The GCC and allies have been in communication with neighboring Federation of Somalia to get them to cut ties with Qatar, without any luck, but Djibouti did so and even sent the Qatari peacekeepers home. Therefore, their proof of loyalty deserves to be repaid and that in full. That is if there are any honor in the GCC and their diplomacy in their sphere. So the Eritrean forces are now in the Dumera mountains and Dumera island, which violates the border territory of Djibouti.

Just to make matter worse, this report has also come out recently:

Not trusting his army, Ismael Omar Guelleh sent a request for military support to Ethiopia and China. He wants Ethiopia and China to send military men and equipment to the border with eritrea to impress the latter. On the other side asmara concerned the movements of Ethiopian troops to the conjunction between the three countries, Djibouti, Eritrea and Ethiopia, sent three military miles to its southern border or the region” (Hassan Cher Hared, HCH24.com, 12.06.2017)

And this one which is more on the nerves of Eritrea:

The statement by the retired Ethiopian general is so nerve wracking to all levels of the regime even the aging Eritrean president has wrote a letter to selected world leaders. “Washington feverishly worked at the time, through the State Department, to drive a wedge between the two peoples who have deep historical and strategic ties in order to foment a crisis and micro-manage the affairs of the Horn of Africa,” he is quoted by Eritrean state media to have said” (…) “Isais Afwerki always says it is not Ethiopia that is working against him, but the government of the United States of America. He says this to make himself bigger than life by antagonizing the world super power unsteady of another third world country which happens to be 20 times his tine country. “The ‘border dispute’ was a simple ruse as the boundary between the two countries was defined and determined without any ambiguity in colonial times. But Washington feverishly worked at the time, through the State Department, to drive a wedge between the two peoples who have deep historical and strategic ties in order to foment a crisis and micromanage the affairs of the Horn of Africa,” said the Eritrean president in the letter, according to the Eritrean ministry of information website” (Tigrai Online – ‘The Eritrean regime is nervous about an Ethiopian retired general’ 16.06.2017 link: http://www.tigraionline.com/articles/fear-nervousness-eritrea.html).

Clearly, if these allegations are true, this would give reasons not only for the GCC issues and the interference in the Horn of Africa, that the KSA, Bahrain and UAE have in the region. As they got the Djibouti government to cut ties and make sure they loyalty would be rewarded. While that is happening, the Eritrean have not taken sides, but takes advantage of the Qatari battalions leaving Djibouti. This gave way for a demilitarized zone, which they could come and takeover. This is what happening, but if the state of Eritrea are using the media this way and swaying the public as the reports are. Than it is sick and twisted, but not surprising with the massive overload of the regime of Asmara has on its citizens.

Well, the situation between Djibouti and Eritrea isn’t over, if Djibouti will get help from either their close ally Ethiopia or China, even the GCC, time will tell. Because they should see it is their time to help out, since they we’re taken by surprise, and has now also the advantage that the international community, the African Union and the United Nations Security Council will react to the hostile act of Eritrea. This is not a good look on the matter.

How news and media company describes the recent history!

9TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE CONFLICT RAS DOUMEIRA

There are feelings that even words will never translate. Feelings that we only feel in front of these heroes… Doumeira. In front of these men who face the enemy night and day. Depends on their lives. With only one currency: Homeland or death. Yesterday, no one was insensitive. ” Military, police, gendarmes, Republican Guards, whatever your rank, we all join in your pain to have lost some of your brothers in arms, some of which are still in an unknown position. In this moment of celebration, I fully associate myself with the sorrow felt by their families. We have lost soldiers who have become heroes that neither the history nor the republic of Djibouti will ever forget” (Djib-Live, 09.06.2017).

Let’s end it on a Djiboutian note:

Mahamoud Ali Youssouf statement about the withdrawal of the Qatari troops from Ras Doumeira, the Eritrean troops have move back into the area. “All options are on our table whether its diplomatic or military,” said the Djiboutian Foreign Minister” (Djiboutian, 16.06.2017).

Hopefully it will be sorted out diplomatically and not with arms, even if the Eritrean answered the other one with invasion of border territory. Clearly a violation and a breach of trust between neighbor states. That the Djibouti republic have a good case and also the upper-hand is evident, but if the Eritrean forces will back-down and go back without a fight. That is only a matter of their will retaliate if the Djibouti army returns to their expected territory. Peace.

Djibouti calls on the UNSC after a territorial dispute with Eritrea after Qatarian peacekeepers leave (15.06.2017)

PM May are walking on thin-ice with the Tories/DUP Coalition talks and the Brexit negotiation!

Just as Sinn Fein and Gerry Adams proclaim in-front of Number 10 Downing Street today alerted the world, again that the current arrangement between the Conservative Party and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), as the talks between them continues in London. The Northern Ireland peace-process and negotiations continues to linger on the Tories. They have officially opened the can of worms and cannot swallow it quick enough. Because there more problems lingering for the term ‘Confidence and Supply’ agreement aren’t finalized. The Queens Speech for the entering of new government has also been postponed, and none of the deals are agreed before the start of Brexit. Which was declared by the European Commission today.

The following joint statement has been issued by the Department for Exiting the European Union and the European Commission:“Michel Barnier, the European Commission’s Chief Negotiator, and David Davis, Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, agreed today to launch Article 50 negotiations on Monday, 19 June.”(European Commission, 2017).

So the United Kingdom and their process of leaving the European Union (EU), as the notification has been triggered and the issues remain the same. The EU has guidelines for the negotiations with the Member State leaving. But the Party leaving is divided and weak, they not even prepared for the trade-off or even the future questions of sovereign state or even as possible state working together with European Union.

While the Tories are working on their coalition with DUP, the Northern Ireland party involved in direct in the United Kingdom government or Her Majesties Government. So the Sinn Fein statement from Gerry Adams of violating the Good Friday of 1998, seems fair and just observation by the Republicans of Northern Ireland. As the Unionist Party are involved directly and trying to figure out a way to get more power for giving majority to the Tories. This seems like Arlene Foster and Theresa May has no issues burring the Good Friday Agreement, making it all clear in Northern Ireland, that the Unionist are the right citizens and their needs. Not the general Northern Irish, as the people are still trying to fix Stormont or the local councils, are the wounds are still fresh. Therefore, the ties with IRA and other Unionist Militias are controversial, as the para-military brigades are feared for creating violence.

This can flair up when the dust settles and things starts to go south. The Northern Irish parties should fear the DUP influence and their capacity in London. British are now totally involved and also partial with DUP as their role in the government and as benefactor for the possible coalition. This would be what-so-ever party who would be in coalition in London from Northern Ireland; if it would be Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), Alliance Party of Northern Ireland or Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) the answer would still be the same. They are to involved in the government of London and United Kingdom.

So on Monday the 19th June 2017, the British officials will not government officials, as the government are not authenticated, not even deliberated by the Queen who officially opens the Parliament and the Cabinet. This will not happen before 21st June 2017. Therefore, the government, who is not official are negotiated. But you know they are on thin-ice when they have to release this statement:

Today I met Northern Ireland’s five main parties with a clear focus on restoring devolved Government to Northern Ireland as soon as possible” (…) “But time is running short and the parties must come together by the 29 June for the return of a strong voice at Stormont and for a brighter future for everyone in Northern Ireland” (…) “My government remains absolutely committed to doing everything we can to help take this process to a successful conclusion, remaining steadfast to our commitments in the Belfast Agreement and its successors” (…) “The Northern Ireland Secretary will continue to engage with the parties before this crucial deadline and if no resolution is reached then we will need to consider what steps we need to take, to ensure Northern Ireland has the political stability it needs” (Prime Minister’s Office, 2017).

Prime Minister Theresa May are clearly not aware of the Belfast Agreement or Good Friday Agreement of 1998 and the Executive Agreement of 2008. So that the PM May are talking of short time for the future of Northern Ireland. Because the United Kingdom government is not official, not even as Brexit starts. The possible violation as the DUP are working their perks with the Tories to finalized the coalition. That secures the Prime Ministers position, but that is at the same time directly interfering with the talks of 29th June 2017. They are happening as the new government and coalition are appearing.

That the Unionist and DUP doesn’t care about the Republicans are clear by their actions in this matter. If they cared about that, they wouldn’t consider the coalition, as the peace and prosperity of the political agreements of Northern Ireland would matter more than UK Government. Alas, that is not the case and the world can see how power-hungry the DUP is. This isn’t the short-con or the long-con. This is the opening of wounds and destruction, just so someone can stay Prime Minister. That someone in London can with their impartiality in Northern Ireland, Belfast can be turned upside down because of this.

She might not only be remembered for breaking the Good Friday Agreement, undo the peace of Northern Ireland and also regain her wobbly government into the Brexit without a clear policy or legal authority. Theresa May may actually be able to in her lifetime to restart conflict in the NI and also create more polarization with the Holyrood and Edinburgh. As the Scottish Independence and Northern Ireland peace process might jeopardize lot’s of strength the Brexit and her own stability.

There brewing trouble in Belfast, there brewing grand-issues in London and in Edinburgh. Only Cardiff in Wales that are steady as it goes. And if there is issues in Belfast, the Dublin will react as well, as there is fellow Irish people who needs support. That means a Member State of the EU has issues with the way a current, but leaving Member State are handling internal-affairs. The Republic of Ireland will react as it has done with even a phone-call Taoiseach and the worries of Ireland. We can wonder if Leo Varadkar will do. The Irish will certainly not accept the breach of agreement, since the Good Friday Agreement was between the Irish, British and Northern Irish counterparts. That is because all of them see it their territory.

We can just wonder if Theresa May wants to risk so much, create such a fragile and troubled state, just for the sake her staying in power. That the Northern Ireland politics and agreement should be more important, that is if she was considering something else than her own career. Nevertheless, that doesn’t seem to be important. It would be humiliating to step-down and let another minority government come into power. But wouldn’t it be even worse to jeopardize the peace and open up the wounds in Northern Ireland! Peace.

Reference:

European Commission – ‘Joint statement by the Department for Exiting the European Union and the European Commission’ (15.06.2017) link: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_STATEMENT-17-1656_en.htm

Prime Minister’s Office – ‘PM statement following Northern Ireland talks: 15 June 2017’ (15.06.2017) link: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-statement-following-northern-ireland-talks-15-june-2017

There are a possible return of UPDF in South Sudan!

It is ironic as the National Dialogue for Peace is supposed to be implemented and worked upon, as the different stakeholders and parties would be listen too. Even if the SPLM/A-IO would send a team, but not Dr. Riek Machar. Still, the government and their army are meeting new rebellions and armies attacking them. The newest is in solidarity to King Malong, as they are this week started the South Sudan Patriotic Army (SSPA), these are starting their warfare in Northern Bahr Al Ghazal under the command of Agany Abdel-Baqi Ayii Akol. So it is more issues growing and more armies working against the SPLM/A-IG. That means so many are rebelling against President Salva Kiir Mayardit. This is worrying, as the National Dialogue are supposed to start talks and consider the different stakeholders. Instead, it seems more like ploy for the center-stage, so the international donors and such see that the central government tries to create peace. Therefore, the newest leaks of possible actions from Uganda inside in South Sudan. Show’ s the relationship between President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni and President Salva Kiir Mayardit. As the rumors and speculations of another time of redeployment, show’s that the Ugandan’s aren’t there just for peace, but for battling the demons of Kiir. Take a look!

The official allegedly said that South Sudanese President Salva Kiir wants Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni to deploy UPDF’s soldiers to some areas he deems a threat to his government. “There is an active discussion between South Sudan and Uganda over the possibility of Uganda’s military re-intervention in our country. Kiir and Museveni started talking about bringing back UPDF to South Sudan last month [May],” the official reportedly said” (…) “Meanwhile, the source was quoted as saying that Kiir and Museveni were infuriated when some leaders of the African Union, United Nations, and other countries publicly admitted that the August 2015 peace agreement is dead, adding, “Kiir and Taban believe the implementation of the peace agreement is going smoothly.” (…) “President Kiir is only implementing what he wants not the peace. The big problem here is that Taban Deng Gai who is now the First Vice President has no power to change anything Kiir wants and it is a big problem,” the source added. The official described the FVP Gai as ‘a man with no real power’ (Adongo, 2017).

In Juba: Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) offered South Sudan border protection assistance which include a join effort on patrolling Juba-Nimule highway according to Press Secretary of the President, Ateny Wek Ateny. The proposal was made on Friday and more details are yet to be release” (MirayaFM, 11.06.2017).

That the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF) and their battalions has been inside South Sudan and was vital part of the SPLA’s victory before the Peace Agreement in 2015. This sophisticated and armed army from Uganda played a big part and also helped the SPLA to secure their upper-hand. Therefore, with this intervention, the UPDF and President Museveni will intervene with more force. There are reports of weapons delivery, ammunition and technical help to the SPLA during this calendar year. So they are just adding and making sure the friendship between the Presidents stay.

President Museveni wants to be the king-maker and he has a loyal ally in President Kiir. This is something he wants to keep, therefore he was the only foreign President in the start of the National Dialogue during May 2017. Which I haven’t had much faith in and with reasons. These reasons are that President Museveni prefers battles he can conquer, not discuss or care about talks. Talks only have value to Museveni if he is the bloody genius and the one with the solving answer.

With this in mind, if the UPDF was re-deployed in South Sudan, it wouldn’t be surprising and shocking. That UPDF with battalions inside South Sudan fighting the rebels, the rebels who has gone against SPLM/A-IG in Juba. So that they would re-enter with battalions as someone says they are plannning. This would differ from the peaceful dialogue the SPLM/A and what President Museveni has said of his engagement in the National Dialogue.

The SPLA has so many fronts and so many rebellions, so if it is true and that the UPDF are going into South Sudan. Than, the President Kiir really has issues and needs help with the troubles at hand. President Kiir seem to need the UPDF and the strength of the Ugandan counterparts in the civil-war in South Sudan. Since he hasn’t had time to build the SPLA and army itself. If the SPLA was winning big and had control of the dire situation, they wouldn’t need the UPDF. Therefore, if this report is true, than the Kiir Government and SPLA are really in trouble with the different obstacles in crisis. And President Museveni would be happy to oblige as his army and his state reserves would not say “no” to the request of being ‘paid in full’ by President Museveni. Peace.

Reference:

Adongo – ‘Uganda plans to re-deploy in South Sudan – reports’ (15.06.2017) link: http://eagle.co.ug/2017/06/15/uganda-plans-to-re-deploy-in-south-sudan-reports.html

Sinn Féin message of equality, rights and unity for London (12.06.2017)

Sinn Féin MP Paul Maskey said the party’s MPs will use their mandate to promote equality, rights and Irish unity and designated special status for the north within the EU.

Paul Maskey was speaking as the new seven-strong Sinn team was preparing to travel to London for a two-day series of meetings.

The West Belfast MP said:

The new seven-strong Sinn Féin team of MPs is hitting the ground running”.

We have received a huge mandate from the people for our platform of equality, rights for all and Irish unity and our opposition to Brexit”.

We will meeting with British Secretary of State James Brokenshire, other political parties, trade unions and journalists as well as the Irish diaspora to update them on current political developments”.

The Sinn Féin delegation will be making the case in London for the re-establishment of political institutions, which deliver for all, and to campaign for designated special status for the north within the EU.”

Communique of the 31st Extra-Ordinary Summit of IGAD Assembly of Heads of State and Government on South Sudan (12.06.2017)