Djibouti: President Doualeh letter to UN Secretary Gutteres on “Djibouti-Eritrea territorial dispute and ask for mediation between both nations” (11.07.2018

Brexit: A “No Deal” will be hurtful to the UK!

Surprise, Surprise, not really though, but for someone this will be insights into an open field May-Day, and we are not talking strong and stable Conservative Party government. No, we are talking May Day, as in all aboard a ship sailing in stormy waters without any significant captain into the abyss. Theresa May, if she goes for the No-Deal with the European Union, she is risking a lot and will not gain much for the Kingdom, except for keeping the Brexiteers on her side and if that is worth it is another bargain.

Today, the European Commission published ‘Preparing for the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union on 30 March 2019’, which is various amount of document saying what will happen, other than the notices of withdrawal, which they have made for all types industries and stakeholders within the Union. Today, they have unleashed documents showing possible outcomes if the negotiations fails.

What is most striking was ‘Main consequences of scenario 2: withdrawal on 30 March 2019 without a withdrawal agreement’, where the arch nemesis of possible soft transition from being a member state to become a third country to Union appear. The results are devastating at least and at best a big blow to everyone who thought it would be genuine good idea to do it in that way.

First assessment as a third country, the EU Laws Cease to apply in the United Kingdom, which is cool in itself and gives, added freedom as a sovereign. The rocks starts to hit the boat, when the second assessment hits, that is “Citizens: There would be no specific arrangement in place for EU citizens in the United Kingdom, or for UK citizens in the European Union”. Meaning, there are no plan or any legal framework for how to take of or, if the UK citizens in the EU has to leave or the EU citizens has to leave as well. This is putting many lives of expats into limbo in the EU, but also in the UK.

The Third assessment by the EU concerning a no deal is: “The European Union must apply its regulation and tariffs at borders with the United Kingdom as a third country, including checks and controls for customs, sanitary and phytosanitary standards and verification of compliance with EU norms. Transport between the United Kingdom and the European Union would be severely impacted. Customs, sanitary and phytosanitary controls at borders could cause significant delays, e.g. in road transport, and difficulties for ports”. Therefore, it is not like this will frictionless either, the EU will with all means put up a hard-border with checkpoints, to secure the transit of goods, it will be like in the past and the duty on goods will appear. The goods will be going through a massive check compared today and prolong the travel-time of the goods going into the Union. In addition, it will also be more costly, be more time consuming and add costs to the consumers, as the taxes on the products will come in the aftermath too.

The Fourth assessment: “Trade and regulatory issues: The United Kingdom becomes a third country whose relations with the European Union would be governed by general international public law, including rules of the World Trade Organisation. In particular, in heavily regulated sectors, this would represent a significant drawback compared to the current level of market integration”. This is yet another blowback, as the financial businesses and banking industry, will be left behind, not only the goods transiting to the Union, but all business will be left with WTO rules and tariffs as a third country, they will not have specialized agreements or securing trade between the Union and UK. This will surely hit industry, financial inclusion and all other cross-border businesses there are today between the parties, this will surely be costly and make it less accessible for Union Companies to access UK and vice versa.

The fifth assessment: “Negotiations with the United Kingdom: Depending on the circumstances leading to the withdrawal without an agreement, the EU may wish to enter into negotiations with the United Kingdom as a third country”. This is implying that the UK will have to configure their deals with Union and will come as a third country into negotiations, as they are outside and will not have benefits of previous membership. This meaning that they will come to Brussels as an outsider. They are really left with nothing and will start fresh negotiations without any pre-empty strikes or significant advantage, as they are not involved internally within the Union or based on the principals of the Union as whole.

The sixth assessment: “EU funding: UK entities would cease to be eligible as Union entities for the purpose of receiving EU grants and participating in EU procurement procedures. Unless otherwise provided for by the legal provisions in force, candidates or tenderers from the United Kingdom could be rejected”. This is showing the first cuts of funding and spending directly as a third country, as the Union funding and grants dries up. Therefore, the programs and the sudden closure of these will hit the UK. The collective spending on UK will stop and this will be costly for the UK. The UK will also not pay into these funds as a Member State, but will lose vital parts by the end of the membership.

Therefore, nothing good comes out of the no-deal. No securities of the citizens, goods will hectic and time consuming, the borders will be hard and the transit will take more time, the WTO laws put into effect and the trade regulations of free movement without tariffs will be gone, also trade in general across borders will be stifled. The final negotiations will be in another narrative, than today as the measures will be for a third country and not former member. The last issue that funding will cease, as much as the legal framework of the Union will stop too. There are little good news in this, other than becoming a sovereign, but all alone, which loose the benefits of today and have to pay a lot to gain anything positive in the future. Which is all but uncertain, the EU puts barriers, but as their protocol for a third country, the Tories cannot pick and mix. Even as they are putting legislation in, who knows how this will hit.

But this should be a reality check for those who says “No-Deal” is a no problem, because the EU certainly have protocols they will follow and the consequences are dire. Peace.

Somalia Partnership Forum – Communique (17.07.2018)

 

SPLM-FPD: Response to the Proposed Agreement on Outstanding Issues of Governance (17.07.2018)

South Sudan: Khartoum, Sudan – Agreement on Outstanding Issues of Governance (17.07.2018)

South Sudan Opposition Alliance (SSOA): Press Release on the Latest Proposal on Outstanding Issues of Governance (16.07.2018)

Opinion: Is Trump in Putin’s Pocket?

It might be possible that you didn’t believe he was the Manchurian Candidate, however after this Joint Conference in Helsinki, Finland this 16th July 2018, than you might believe it too. Who am I talking about, by all means Donald J. Trump, the United States President, he seems clearly compromised and looks like he is in the pocket of the Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. Since they can hold a secretive meeting for two hours and say whatever they like afterwards. There were no one else than two people translating between the parties and no one to monitor the event. Meaning, in the meeting they could be talking about their wives, their ex-girlfriends or even about the deals they have done in the past. Therefore, as the defensive President Trump was in the Joint Conference, it is hard to believe anything the liar says. However, he has always been apologetic over Putin and Russia. Today, it went to level of foolishness.

The key quotes of Trump foolishness is right here:

TRUMP: So let me just say that we have two thoughts. You have groups that are wondering why the FBI never took the server. Why haven’t they taken the server? Why was the FBI told to leave the office of the Democratic National Committee? I’ve been wondering that I’ve been asking that for months and months and I’ve been tweeting it out and calling it out on social media. Where is the server? I want to know where is the server and what is the server saying? With that being said, all I can do is ask the question. My people came to me Dan Coats came to me and some others they said they think it’s Russia. I have President Putin. He just said it’s not Russia. I will say this: I don’t see any reason why it would be. But I really do want to see the server but I have I have confidence in both parties. I really believe that this will probably go on for a while but I don’t think it can go on without finding out what happened to the server. What happened to the servers of the Pakistani gentleman that worked on the DNC? Where are those servers? They’re missing. Where are they? What happened to Hillary Clinton’s emails? 33000 emails gone, just gone. I think in Russia they wouldn’t be gone so easily. I think it’s a disgrace that we can’t get Hillary Clinton’s thirty three thousand e-mails. So I have great confidence in my intelligence people but I will tell you that President Putin was extremely strong and powerful in his denial today and what he did is an incredible offer he offered to have the people working on the case come and work with their investigators, with respect to the 12 people. I think that’s an incredible offer. Thank you” (National Public Radio – ‘Transcript: Trump And Putin’s Joint Press Conference’ 16.07.2018, link: https://www.npr.org/2018/07/16/629462401/transcript-president-trump-and-russian-president-putins-joint-press-conference?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter ).

It is like he doesn’t trust the FBI, neither any other parts of his intelligence organizations, but if Putin says it isn’t so, it isn’t so. How blind or dumb is he? Trump is showing his ignorance and played ones. Thinking he can get away with this. Certainly, this should put people into fire in the United States. He shows how compromised he is. Not that I believe the Congress or Capitol Hill will do anything, because they have been helping this charade going for months. They have worked against the Russian Probe on the hill and also against the works of Special Counsel Robert Mueller. Therefore, he might continue as he said nothing.

President Trump has really shown his golden nugget. I got Putin. Putin said so, therefore, I had to believe him. It is like he is oblivious about the transfers of information caught by the investigation, neither about the leaks and revelations that has been. The strong connections and the meeting between the Trump Campaign and Russians. Even the not secured meeting with former Ambassador Kislyak and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. All of that should let the bell rings, still the Republican Party has done nothing or anything worth a damn.

Now that he speaks like this, the US should be shocked, but will they act upon it? I doubt it. Than they had done already. President Trump is the Manchurian Candidate and he trusts more the denial of Putin, than his intelligence organizations. You could wonder why?

Does Putin have the Pee Tape and the Golden Shower video from the Miss Universe days in Moscow?

Is that why Trump is accepting and is in the pocket of Putin?

Certainly, he has been to friendly and compromised, the US should be shocked of the way Trump has acted in public today. Peace.

Maldives: EU adopts a framework for targeted sanctions (16.07.2018)

On 16 July, the Foreign Affairs Council adopted a framework for targeted restrictive measures against persons and entities responsible for undermining the rule of law or obstructing an inclusive political solution in the Maldives as well as persons and entities responsible for serious human rights violations. This decision makes it possible, if the situation does not improve, to impose a travel ban and an asset freeze on relevant individuals and entities.

This decision is a direct follow up to the Foreign Affairs Council conclusions of 26 February 2018 on the Maldives. The Council considered that the situation was not in accordance with the principles of democratic rule and separation of powers, and indicated it may consider targeted measures if the situation did not improve.

In its conclusions, the Council called on the government of the Maldives to engage with the leaders of the opposition in a genuine dialogue that paves the way for credible, transparent and inclusive Presidential elections.

NDF of the Philippines: Duterte-Lorenzana Notion of Localized Peace talks is totally absurd and stupid for Five Major Reasons (16.07.2018)

Burundi-Rwanda: Who is fooling, who?

RDF is trained and prepared to fight wars but not to start them with others, but if others make us their problem and choose to start a war with us, that is when we use judgment, determination and training to fight and finish it for them” – President Paul Kagame at the Rwanda Military Academy at the Commissioning Ceremony on the 13th July 2018.

There been twice reported during this month of movement of a possible militia crossed from Cibitoka province from the Kibra forest in Burundi into Nyungwe forest in the Ruhengeri district in Rwanda. Some Burundian sources claim it is Imbonerakure, the Youth Militia out of the CNDD-FDD in the province, and the final claim is that its trained militias from the Force de Defense National du Burundi (FNDB) too. While that is happening, in the Southern Regions of Rwanda, the 31st Brigade and the 4th Division are doing military operations, as reported on the 12th July. So, it is not like various reports shows something is brewing. Hopefully, just puppy-talk, but these regimes are not sweet uncles, but fierce regimes, who has no trouble getting rid of someone in their way.

That is just some of the reports, so it is hard to know what is real. It has been reported that there was Rwandan Burundi based militia attacked this area in the 1st July 2018 and that on the 13th July 2018, that the same group came back.

There been long speculations and rumors of border clashes. But who would be favor of these reports?

Do the Rwandan government want a war with Burundi, as their economy is crippled and the dictator is a mad-Max, whose getting rid of enemies like other trash garbage. It is not like Rwandan dictator is anything different, he has left his opposition to rot in the prison as well. So them both are acting in-different to the voices within their republics. Therefore, non of these regimes are positive for the freedom or liberty. So, I would not defend anyone of these. Pierre Nkurunziza have no problem to send people to their demise, neither would Paul Kagame, he would put someone into a fatal tragedy for standing in his way.

Nevertheless, as the government needs fear, they need wars and enemies to act strong. That the Rwandan government could need a conflict, could consolidate Kagame even more, as he grew up in conflict and came as a General, whose never left power. Nkurunziza came out of a civil war and has now soon gotten rid of all his enemies internally too. These two would need a conflict to gain popularity, because it is just so far fear and self-inflicted deposing of citizens can go. By the time all opposition are gone or in exile.

Certainly, both regimes would need and use this to their favor. However, the Burundian Authorities have said it isn’t true. While the Rwandan government has verified it. This has happen before. You can question, if the Rwandan want to create a crisis and an excuse to attack Burundi. Does the Burundian government want to blame Rwanda and make sure they can attack the neighbor?

As both governments are working to kill this off. You can question why all these reports are coming up and who is fooling who?

What is the play and whose playing? What is the end-game?

I really wonder. Because both parties are saying: “no it wasn’t us and we’re not involved”. While both are sort of blaming the other parties. We will clearly see the signs and see where this goes. Who will use the other party.

However, it is hard to know who is right, as both are using their authorities to counter-claim. The Rwandan has happen through the Police Authority, while the Burundian has claimed it through the army. Certainly, one of them is lying. While in Rwanda, there been military operations going-on, without connections to the possible insurgence from Burundi.

That is why you can wonder if Rwanda are using the Burundi excuse for their own activity? But that is just speculations. Just like the rest. Nothing is really verified and both government like to keep things to their chest and secrets, also not like free media is free to report either. Therefore, the sources are shady at best. Peace.