Category: Development
United Nations Security Risk Assessment of South Sudan by September 2015
Today is a day where I will discuss and show findings for certain UNMISS report that is from UN Department of Safety and Security (UNDSS) and UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) its numbered: ST/SGB/2007/06. It is the United Nations Security Risk Assessment – South Sudan. It was approved 11th September 2015! And here are some interesting findings. I think the quotes speak for themselves!
“Following the onset of the conflict in December 2013, UNMISS could not fully perform its mandate given it under Security Council resolution 1996 (2011) because of the security situation and the need to maintain impartiality. Subsequently, Security Council resolution 2155 (2014), 27 May 2014, fundamentally shifted the basis of UNMISS’ mandate from support of the Government in capacity-building in traditional UN peacebuilding areas to four key areas. In the line with the UN Security Council resolution 2223 (2015), UNMISS activities are:
- Protecting the Civilians
- Monitoring and investigating human rights
- The Creation of conditions conducive for humanitarian assistance
- Supporting the implementation of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement” (UN SRA SS P: 2-3).
“Despite the attacks on the Akobo CSB and the BOR PoC in April 2014, that were more linked with the ethnic based targeting of South Sudanese sheltering within UN premises, generally speaking the UN is not a primary target for hostilities. Moreover, the UN is more often caught in crossfire during armed conflict and access is affected as a result of armed conflict. This will continue to be a risk”(…)“The fact that UNMISS hosts over 166,000 Internally Displaced People (IDP) increases the UN’s operational risk profile and reputation” (…)”PoC sites are volatile with the potential that the high level of tension amongst the IDPs may spill over in violent clashes. Staff members are therefore at a higher risk working within these sites” (UN SRA SS P: 3).
“The armed conflict, which is now in its second year, followed last year’s pattern where the dry season was fighting season enabling forces to take control of vast areas of the country. During the rainy seasons (July-Nov) the roads become impassable curbing direct clashes for the period. Even with the IGAD peace agreement signed in Juba on 26. August 2015, assessment is that the country security situation in 2015/16 will remain unsecure” (UN SRA SS P: 4).
“Currently there is no mainstreaming of Security within the UN activities/ programmes. Therefore, the policy that defines that security needs to be involved at all levels of management to ensure security is considered/ mainstreamed into all the activities or programmes is not applied, specifically in UNMISS” (…)”Maintaining security training would enhance the functional expertise of all international and national staff although programme managers would need to receive training in order to learn the identity inherent and associated risks in a timely manner” (UN SRA SS P: 5).
“Peace Operation: To help implement the mandated tasks, UNMISS will consist of a military component of up to 12,500 troops of all ranks and a police component, including appropriate Formed Police Units, up to 1,323 personell” (UN SRA SS P: 9).
“Humanitarian programme assessments have indicated that, as the violence deepens, the humanitarian needs and risk to aid workers increases. 27 aid workers are presumed to have been killed in South Sudan since December 2013 and over 150 NGO staff are unaccounted for” (…)”In Juba, there have been a growing number of armed attacks against humanitarian compounds” (UN SRA SS P: 10).
“At the height of the conflict large numbers of people split over the borders into neighboring countries seeking refuge in Ethiopia, Uganda, Sudan, Kenya and Abyei; these numbers stand at approximately 510,000 individuals” (UN SRA SS P: 13).
“The increased risk specifically in Malakal and Bentiu would require an increase in the deployment of security staff and expansion of the collective security posture” (…)”As the rains of 2015 began to cut off supply lines, military offensives increasingly used riverine methods of transporting goods and fighters to the frontline. The method of delivery was also being used by humanitarian agencies to transfer large quantities of food to communities in need. In April 2015 a barge convoy hired by UNMISS to carry food and fuel supplies for the base in Malakal was attacked by RPGs and small arms fire , injured four persons. In July the government gave strict warnings that all river transportation should stop, further restricting aid delivery around the country. In September there have also been reported incidents of alleged attack on government owned barges and gunboats in Upper Nile State, the SPLA-io claimed responsibility ahead of verification” (UN SRA SS P: 14-15).
“Since the beginning of the conflict (December 2013) until June 2015, there were a total of 594 security incidents involving IDPs in UNMISS PoC sites. Cases include serious assaults, civil unrest, mob violence, robbery, death threats and harassment, and several locations have also recorded serious disruption to humanitarian operation” (…)”Continued accusations by the government actors or affiliates that the PoC sites are a sanctuary for supporters of the SPLA in Opposition also make the PoC sites a target; this point was actively demonstrated in the attack in the Bor in April 2014 resulting in the death of 55 IDPs within the UNMISS site. Similar incidents have occurred near PoC sites in Juba, Bentiu and Malakal” (…)”An outbreak of cholera started in South Sudan on 18 May 2015 reaching total of 1718 cases [dates 4 September 2015], this rapid spread is largely affecting areas of the state capital Juba and also a separate smaller spread in Bor. One death have been reported at the PoC site in Juba with a total of 76 cases of people who contracted cholera inside the site” (UN SRA SS P: 16).
“UNSMS will have to work much closer with the GoSS security agencies to ensure an improved security response to UN security related incidences” (…)”In Juba a “blue zone” was implemented to manage the locations which were approved by UN security for International UN staff to reside in based on accessibility to the area, crime rates and distance to UN base in case of relocation and emergencies” (…)”Where the UN has a presence Operational Zones have been created where security clearances are not required in all main urban areas to allow for improved access. This approach is underscore by risk management as opposed to a risk adverse approach, this concept needs to be maintained and where possible further enhanced or monitored” (UN SRA SS P: 17).
“The disruption in oil revenues and devaluation of the currency as a result of the fighting has had a detrimental effect on the already weakened economy; government, civil servants, armed forces and police are having their salaries delayed. The breakdown in social infrastructure has reduced employment opportunities; creating desperation which has translated into crime” (…)”For example, the on-going cattle raiding and inter-clan revenge clashes that has been served in retaliation have devastated Lake States” (…)”Government officials have sometimes exacerbated tense situations with alienating remarks on their perception of the UN, often with accusations that the UN is favoring one side over the other within the conflict itself” (UN SRA SS P: 19).
“Animosity grew when the government made accusations that the UN was harboring rebels within its Protection of Civilian (POC) sites. Direct and veiled threats to attack POCs became widespread” (…)”The effect of this was in April 2014 when “armed youth” attacked the UNMISS base in Bor resulting in the deaths of 55 IDPs and injuring many others including UN peacekeepers” (…)”On 26 August 2014 under suspicious circumstances a UN contracted helicopter crashed near Bentiu in Unity State, killing three (3) aircrew and injuring one (1) other underlining the threats involved in working within South Sudan. Investigations into the cause of the crash were inconclusive” (…)”In the middle July 2015 there are approximately 166,142 people saying in seven (7) UNMISS bases (UN SRA SS P: 20).
“There is also notable internal political friction between the Central Government and the Equatoria States who have been calling for the greater autonomy via a federal government system. This has lead to local Equatorian communities feeling threatened and evacuating their families from the area” (…)”In Jonglei state” (…)” During rainy season in 2014 there were major skirmishes between the SPLA and SPLA-io reported in Jonglei. The SPLA-io has continued to threaten to fire upon aircraft flying in the areas, which were seven of the eleven counties during this period; the last threat was on 17 July 2014” Upper Nile” (…)”Several major clashes between the SPLA and SPLA-io have occurred; during one heavy exchange some stray bullets entered the UNMISS camp killing and injuring IDPs and causing structural damage to UN resources. All UN personnel remain concentrated in UNMISS camp including several agencies who had to abandon their own compounds” (…)”Unity State” (…)”To the west of Bentiu, UN staff previously based in the former Mayom UNMISS County Support Base (CSB) regularly were “caught in cross fire” incidents when the parties to conflict attempted to take control of the strategically important town, which is principally inhabited by Bul Nuer. UN Mission and Agencies Funds and Programme (AFP) staffs have become the target with regular ambushes, the demand for their trucks, and/or fuel and the forceful attempt to board UN flight by military” (UN SRA SS P: 22). “Also in the Upper Nile UNICEF reports that 89 boys were forcibly recruited by an unnamed armed group in late February 2015. They were takin in an area currently under government control, which is defended by government-allied Shilluk militia commanded by Maj Gen Johnson Olony” (…)”There are reports of an LRA attack in Western Equatoria State in March 2015 when one person was killed, the village was looted and eleven people were abducted but four were later released. This resuming of LRA attacks has increased fear amongst the population as the last attack in the 2012” (UN SRA SS P: 23).
“The oil pipelines exit South Sudan in both Unity and Upper Nile State, oil is refined in Sudan before being exported. The potential loss of oil revenues affects both nations so good trade relations’ remains key to maintaining income” (UN SRA SS P: 23).
“Currently the flow of refugees is affecting both countries as fighting affects the communities and so they move on, in Sudan the fighting in South Kordofan has created an influx of refugees into South Sudan and the fighting in northern Unity State in South Sudan has meant many refugees travelled north to refugee sites within Sudan” (…)”Cross border grazing & migration rights also areas of dispute as they host well-armed Sudanese Misseriya cattle herders who move around South Sudan in search of feed for their animals” (UN SRA SS P: 24).
“South Sudan lacks an adequate air traffic control system, countrywide. The government took control of the country’s airspace from Sudan in 2011, but to date has not issued any “Notice to Airmen” (NOTAMs), There are areas, however, that the government has declared a “no fly zone” (i.e. over the Presidential Palace in Juba), suggesting that the government reserve the right to fire upon an aircraft that violates this airspace” (UN SRA SS P: 25).
“Use of the River Nile for transportation of UN supplies and fuel has proved difficult with the government threat against all river travel by humanitarian agencies. With military supply vessels regularly travelling the river to the frontline it is not a safe option for delivery of humanitarian provisions” (UN SRA SS P: 26).
“Communicable diseases in South Sudan constitute a major cause of morbidity and morality largely due to the limited access to clean water and sanitation being extremely poor with open defection rates, which reaches 60% in urban areas and 80% in rural areas” (UN SRA SS P: 29).
“In regards to infrastructure, the entire country remains underdeveloped. Road and air mobility is seriously jeopardized especially during the rainy season where whole regions are cut off. Electricity, food and clean water supplies are scarce and seriously impact UN operations in remote duty stations” (…)”Due to poor road conditions in both dry and rainy season and lack of infrastructure there is a heavy reliance on UNMISS and UNHAS air assets for the delivery of humanitarian aid” (UN SRA SS P: 30).
“The existing EU sanctions delivered in July 2014 had little impact on the de-escalating of the crisis, however further extensive UN sanctions were delivered in a tough UN Security Council Resolution on the 3 March 2015, the decision affects individuals through the freezing of their bank accounts and travel bans will affect all players who do not work towards peace and security. There is also an African Union (AU) report which has investigated human rights abuses last dry season which is completed but yet to be published” (UN SRA SS P: 41).
“There is an increase of visible signs of South Sudan being a failing state: there is no free media, intimidation, by government security is commonplace, economy close to collapse and lack of provision or accountability of the civilian population by the state with most funds diverted to fund the war effort. Law and order is collapsing too, in some states wages have been stolen or simply delayed for months on end, in urban area reports of police becoming active criminals, local courts do not function and reports that crimes are committed due to perpetrators acting with impunity” (…)”Large numbers of IDPs rely on the security of UNMISS peacekeeping forces for their protection, however crowd control measures can never maintain order if the IDPs turn on their protector if the tensions rise inside the confines of the POC sites, the numbers are simply overwhelming” (UN SRA SS P: 42).
Afterthought:
It is all worrying even with the Peace Agreement between the SPLA/M and SPLA-IO which signed a deal with amendments and tokens taken off. The worrying path is the records and analyses that the UN and UNMISS is delivering in this report. The numbers of people that are fleeing from South Kordofan in Sudan and the ones fleeing South Sudan to neighboring countries like Ethiopia, Uganda and DRC is massive! Should be worrying and the way the air-space is not secured. Also the reports on how the seasons are changing and making it difficult to spread necessities like food through air should be seen as a GIANT sign that something has to change. Infrastructure that is gone during rainy season and the air-drops has to happen for no open roads. River Nile isn’t safe and is in the front-line and dangerous travel with transportation of necessities though that path.
There are the issues with the skirmishes in different areas and also military assaults in the various states. Both between SPLA and SPLA-IO but they are not alone. There other military groups making it worse, also the report of even LRA has done damage in the country. Those also innocent children have been abducted and all the weakness of the security issues together with the fractions inside the SPLA making the reports and data on the ground more worrying.
On top of it all the sanctions that has been put on the Government of South Sudan and it hasn’t hit the ground running, but been useless and if it does anything it’s been just a certain individuals that has lost bank accounts, but it hasn’t stopped the fighting or stopped small-arms coming to the country!
There is so much more I could have put into ink and discussed because its powerful to see what the UNMISS is writing and discussing in the report. I have taken what I seen as main issues and fresh insights. I am sure somebody else would have taken more of the context and background into it, but that you can read somewhere else. Peace!
Reference:
United Nations Security Risk Assessment South Sudan – September 2015 – UN Department of Safety and Security (UNDSS) & UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) – Approved 11. September 2015 – (Given out 15.09.2015)
NTV Uganda footage of the arrests infront of the Parliament of Uganda today
More arrests of opposition members in Uganda today
Today there been reported through several sources that certain members of the FDC party has been arrested and taken to the Police. Some of these persons are Mubarak Munyagwa the Mayor of Kawempe, Nasurdin Basalirwa the FDC Youth Chairman for Kampala and Hamidah Nalongo Nassimbwa the VC of FDC Woman’s League in Central Region.
They got jailed after being active activist going to the Parliament to ask the Parliament to implement Electoral Reforms. That seems like a sin in the country when you go against the man with a vision and the only revolutionary in the country. Then you’re allowed to be imprisoned for their opinions and wish to make change. Also to demonstrate against NRM regime and the laws set for the General Election in 2016. Peace.
Press Release: Meridiam announces EIB participation in its Africa Fund (28.09.2015)
Europe’s long-term financing institution, the European Investment Bank (EIB) and Meridiam, a leading global investor and asset manager specializing in public and community infrastructure today announced the agreement of a new €30 million catalyst investment in the Meridiam Infrastructure Africa Fund.
The pan-African fund is expected to investment in 8-10 essential infrastructure projects including, energy, education, transport, water and waste schemes. The Meridiam Infrastructure Africa Fund is currently finalizing investment in three projects, a solar photovoltaic project in Senegal, a university campus in Côte d’Ivoire and airports renovation in Madagascar.
“Investment across Africa to improve energy, education, water and transport infrastructure is essential for economic activity and improving lives. The Meridiam Infrastructure Africa Fund will help projects being implemented for the first time by sharing experience from similar schemes elsewhere, both in Africa and Europe. The European Investment Bank is committed to supporting infrastructure investment that unlocks business opportunities, reduces costs and contributes to achieving the Millennium Development Goals and this new initiative firmly supports these goals.” said Pim van Ballekom, European Investment Bank Vice President.
“This new fund is an ideal opportunity to unleash much needed investment in African infrastructure. We believe we can contribute to support efforts across the continent to build capacity in infrastructure delivery to accompany and foster African growth. In this way we will collectively harness the enormous potential created by Africa’s young population, burgeoning middle classes and increasingly urbanized population,” said Thierry Déau, Meridiam’s Founder/CEO.
Meridiam’s consistent investment strategy since the firm’s creation in 2005, with the renewed support of the EIB, has been to invest in a wide variety of projects in Europe and North America and by prudent and sensible risk mitigation measures can contribute its experience in complex infrastructure transactions and its adherence to the strictest Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) standards to create and manage projects that benefit local communities and national economies and concretely help to further the ability of the developing world to bridge the dangerous gap that exists in the global economy today, for the benefit of future generations across the continent.
In 2014 the European Investment Bank provided more than EUR 2.5 billion to support infrastructure and private sector investment across Africa.
Statement By H.E. Yoweri Kaguta Museveni President of Uganda as the Co-Chair of the Summit for the Adoption of the Post-2015 Development Agenda at the U.N. (25.09.2015)
At UN Summit for the Adoption of the Post-2015 Development Agenda
New York 25 September, 2015
Your Excellencies Heads of State and Government,
Your Excellency Lars Løkke Rasmussen, Prime Minister of Denmark and co-chair of the Summit,
Mr. Secretary-General,
President of the General Assembly,
Honourable Ministers,
Distinguished participants,
Ladies and Gentlemen,
I am pleased to co-chair this important Summit as we gather as a community of nations to adopt a new development agenda that will guide our development efforts for the next 15 years.
This historic Summit is the culmination of months of tireless efforts and unprecedented commitment by Member States and stakeholders to formulate a universal, inclusive and transformative development agenda.
I would like to pay tribute to H.E. Sam Kutesa for his leadership and accomplishments as President of the 69th Session of the General Assembly and thank all of you for supporting Uganda in that responsibility.
I also congratulate and convey appreciation to the President of the 70th Session, H.E. Mogens Lykketoft and the Secretary-General, H.E. Ban Ki-moon for their leadership.
Today heralds the dawn of a new era in our collective efforts towards eradicating poverty, improving livelihoods of people everywhere, transforming economies and protecting our planet.
Together, we are sending a powerful message to people in every village, every city and every nation worldwide ─ that we are committed to taking bold steps to change their lives, for the better.
The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which we will adopt today, is ambitious in its scope and breadth. In the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the social, economic and environmental dimensions of sustainable development are addressed in an integrated way. The agenda also carries forward the unfinished business of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).
Over the last fifteen years, we have attained significant achievements through implementing the MDGs. Globally, more than one billion people have been lifted from extreme poverty and improvements have been made in access to education, health, water and sanitation, advancing gender equality and women’s empowerment.
In Uganda, we have been able to reduce the percentage of people living in extreme poverty from 56% in 2000 to 19% currently. We have also attained universal primary education, promoted gender equality and empowerment of women and continue to reduce child and maternal mortality. From our experience, it has been clear that to sustainably achieve the MDGs we must have socio-economic transformation.
It is, therefore, refreshing that in the successor framework, the SDGs, key drivers of economic growth, have been duly prioritized. These include infrastructure development especially energy, transport and ICT; industrialization and value-addition; human resource development; improving market access and greater participation of the private sector.
While the SDGs will be universally applicable, we also recognize national circumstances, different levels of development and the needs of countries in special situations, particularly the Least Developed Countries (LDCs), Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDCs), Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and African countries.
Taking urgent action to combat climate change and its severe impacts is also prioritised in the new agenda. We should redouble efforts towards reaching an ambitious legally-binding agreement on climate change in Paris in December that promotes the achievement of sustainable development, while protecting the planet.
The new agenda also rightly underscores the important linkages between development, peace and security and human rights. We have to intensify efforts to combat transnational crime, terrorism and the rise of radicalization and violent extremism around the world.
We should reject pseudo ─ ideologies that manipulate identity (by promoting sectarianism of religion and communities) and eclipse the legitimate interests of peoples through investment and trade. Where identity issues are legitimate, they should be expeditiously handled.
Excellencies,
We should all be proud of what has been accomplished so far as we usher in this new development agenda. However, the critical next step will be to ensure its successful implementation on the ground.
In this context, integrating the SDGs into our respective national and regional development plans, mobilizing adequate financial resources, technology development and transfer as well as capacity building will be critical.
We have to ensure full implementation of the comprehensive framework for financing sustainable development, which we adopted in the Addis Ababa Action Agenda to support achievement of the goals and targets of Agenda 2030.
One of the major challenges many developing countries continue to face is accessing affordable long-term financing for critical infrastructure projects.
In this regard, it will be vital to promptly establish and operationalize the proposed new forum to bridge the infrastructure gap and complement existing initiatives and multilateral mechanisms to facilitate access to long-term financing at concessional and affordable rates.
The efforts of developing countries to improve domestic resource mobilization, boost economic growth and address major challenges such as unemployment should be supported by development partners as well as international financial institutions and regional development banks. We also need to do more to promote Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), support entrepreneurship especially for women and youth and enhance the contribution of the private sector and other stakeholders to sustainable development. Through prioritization, the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) themselves can also contribute to their own infrastructure development.
In order to build effective, inclusive and accountable institutions at all levels, we have to ensure that the voices of developing countries and regions are heard and that they are treated as equal partners in multilateral decision-making. At the international level, we need urgent reform of the United Nations ─ particularly the Security Council ─ and other multilateral institutions to reflect the current geo-political realities.
We need a renewed global partnership for development in which all the commitments made, including on Overseas Development Assistance (ODA), trade and investment are fulfilled.
While the Agenda represents the collective aspirations of all peoples, its success will hinge on its ability to reduce inequalities and improve the lives of the most vulnerable among us, including women, children, the elderly and persons with disabilities.
After months of intense negotiations and steadfast commitment, we have before us an Agenda that represents our best opportunity to transform our world.
We have heard the voices of people spanning the globe; from eager children asking for access to a quality education to young women seeking better maternal health; from rural villagers whose farmlands have been ravaged by droughts to the coastal fishermen on Small Island States who fear their entire existence will soon be swallowed up by rising sea levels.
We continue to witness the influx of refugees and migrants into Europe from Africa and the Middle East, which is partly caused by conflict and lack of economic opportunities.
These voices may speak many language and dialects, but in the end their message is the same ─ please help us to live happier, more prosperous lives, while also protecting the planet for our children and grandchildren.
After adoption of this Agenda, it is incumbent upon us all to take the development aspirations laid out in this document and turn them into reality on the ground; for our people, our communities and our nations. This agenda will create global prosperity different from the past arrangements of prosperity for some through parasitism and misery and under-development for others.
I thank you for your attention.
FDC/1-84/EC/1/9/15 – FDC Letter to the Electoral Commission on Dr. Kizza Besigye as Flag-Bearer (25.09.2015)
TDA picked the Joint Presidential Candidate and now changes are coming!
Amama Mbabazi of the Go-Forward Ticket became the Joint Presidential Candidate in the coalition of TDA. As a lightning strike it’s has had an effect on the parties and candidates.
Instead of bring unity and strength as I and other people hoped the retaliation and movement of the parties has shambled the idea of a strong coalition against the NRM and the Mzee, head of state and long-time ruler.
First the UPC Mr. Jimmy Akena took down the UPC flag at the compound of the TDA. Olara Otunnu said the party where in the spirit and taking down the flag wouldn’t make a difference. As Akena has also denounced the Amama Mbabazi and make even the UPC camps go against each other.
Secondly the FDC has pulled their Flag-Bearer and leader Dr. Kizza Besigye after the decision to pick the other leader after a long wait for the stalemate in the coalition.
The main issue is that UFA, DP, PPP and UPC in general are following the picked candidate though that some of the parties have issues. Norbert Mao of the DP is following and supporting the candidature, the same with Gilbert Bukenya. Gilbert Bukenya while still go on his own independent candidature instead of being a part of the TDA. DP will follow Amama Mbabazi and hope to regain a bigger crowd with loyalty to the coalition.
FDC is big and biggest party except for the NRM. Mugisha Muntu and Dr. Kizza Besigye got big crowds and support in the land. Also a loyal staff and a hardworking party, that has run campaign for a long while on their own. So that Dr. Kizza Besigye has send in again his own nomination form to the Electoral Commission and standing with his party shouldn’t be seen as strange move after being snubbed by the TDA.
Though this makes a lot of the wishes and makes the opposition a bit fractioned instead of a strong unity. With the movement in the UPC which also shows to faces after the recognition and placing the bets on Amama Mbabazi. This have now showed frictions and weakness in the strength of it all. It could be for seen that Amama Mbabazi had gone out of the TDA if he wasn’t picked as the leader and Joint Candidate for coalition. So that the FDC does the same shouldn’t be seen as a wrong move. It’s right for them! But it gives the opposition less strength into the 2016 election against the Mzee. It has now two fractions with different programs and even if they both work for getting NRM regime out of power.
Amama Mbabazi deflection from NRM and into independent candidate turned TDA has really made the coalition weaker in some ways. Especially losing the FDC and also making the UPC’s own issues to the surface. That he can bring more issues up from is if the DP will struggle with Norbert Mao after taking over from Paul Ssemogerere. And that JEEMA Asuman Basalirwa hasn’t made any noise! Jaberi Bidandi Ssali of the PPP has also been silent. Ken Lukyamuzi of the CP hasn’t said a word either. Beti Kamya of UFA has not been anywhere worth mentioning more than seeing she is somewhere and maybe in recent days signed a paper.
Now that the decision has been made and FDC has pulled their power move. Amama Mbabazi has made a coup in the opposition and gotten a prize of rising as a head of the rest against Dr. Kizza Besigye and Mzee. There are now three horses running for the Head of State. The ruling party and Mzee must enjoy this fraction instead of hearing of strengthen the unity toward NRM regime!
So if Gilbert Bukenya goes a single unit as well then it will be four people race for the Presidential Candidate, with three big men in the driving seat for the election in 2016. The NRM ticket, the Go-Forward/TDA Ticket and FDC ticket! Which is three swords with different edges into each other during the campaign while supposable being able to show power against the reigning power which seems a losing battle. With two pieces going against one big-man will be battle of noise instead of the unity that they could have been.
We could see something different and a positive note into the campaigning of the presidential election in 2016.
Instead we have now the same old instead a weak unit, FDC party with its own strength and the NRM party with the Mzee who use every tool in the book to keep his position in place and let everybody else scatter. Destroy and conquer is working its magic wand without pulling the string. He has pushed Amama Mbabazi out of the NRM and used him as pawn in the opposition that he could never achieve himself. Because his actions could bring the opposition could bring them back together, but the question if the FDC see the legitimacy of Joint Presidential Candidate who is not from their party. This is a slap in the face of those who trust in the Go-Forward ticket as the main ones of the rest of the opposition who is a part of the coalition!
The only winner of this tale now is the ruling leader. Mzee has yet again a fragmented opposition and not a collected force against his reign. His Excellency can smile wherever he is and know that Amama Mbabazi and Dr. Kizza Besigye will go against him, also each other so he can steal the whole dime and leave scraps for the rest as always. Because like Joseph Stalin said: “it’s not the ones that cast the ballots, but those that count them that matter”, I know I am paraphrasing the quote. Still the meaning is there and we know the Electoral Commission and its track record in the sense of how it pleases the NRM regime.
The now TDA Joint Candidate will have a mountain to climb in the new landscape he is in. He has always been a NRM candidate and lived in the shadow of his master. Now he is alone in the wilderness, but has support of many minor parties so he can say he is not totally alone. The biggest fellow supporting his candidacy in TDA is DP and Norbert Mao. Who would not have grasp or ability to reach in the Uganda! That is something that the TDA parties have recognized. So that it would be late comer Amama Mbabazi or Dr. Kizza Besigye was natural. Gilbert Bukenya couldn’t also have the reach of the two main candidates. This has beaten the opposition into a weird shape instead of strong unity, me and other people wished. So they could have moral and ethical leader to be something else then Mzee. Instead we have three parts rally for the Head of State and beat the NRM regime.
So know the People’s President will still be the man the integrity, but not with the support of all the other parties, though parts of the UPC wanted him as chief of the TDA it seems. Jimmy Akena has already tried to split the UPC so that Olara Otunnu would lose his margin in the party; instead it shows the fractions there.
This all leads weakness of the opposition… and the crater of the FDC are now showing what is left behind. FDC created a real vacuum and should be worry for Amama Mbabazi Go-Forward ticket. As the race against Mzee can they now be seen as a soft teams instead of a having combative strength together. Mzee can smile and relax a bit. The cracks in the TDA might happen even further if Gilbert Bukenya will branch out himself on a later stage. If the UPC continues to struggle with themselves and if they following the words of the Jimmy Akena or Olara Otunnu!
Mzee! Mzee will have a field day after today. The TDA has lost a piece of it integrity and edge as the FDC deflects and the stages of the UPC and other parties place will further imbalance the opposition coalition and we can wonder if the TDA will be totally fragmented into the campaign of the 2016 Presidential elections. Peace.
Amama Mbabazi’s speech to the TDA today (25.09.2015)
Members of The Democratic Alliance: I accept your nomination.
This has not been an easy process and the truth is when we face our opponent it won’t get any easier. But I am proud to be a part of this union of citizens, each one of whom has dared
to answer the call of democracy, of justice and of true prosperity.
To my fellow candidates Mr. Norbert Mao and Professor Gilbert Bukenya – I salute your sense of duty and your willingness to put our country first. I look forward to working with you, for it is your help I want and your help I seek; and our cooperation that our country desires and deserves. I am certain that the doors of cooperation are still open to Dr. Kizza Besigye of the FDC. Let us leave the quarrels of the past behind in favour of unity. Not a
unity based on sameness but a unity borne of pragmatism and of a shared vision for our beloved country Uganda.
To every member of the Democratic Alliance, all of us here have walked distinct paths to come to this place but we share the same dreams, we have a common purpose: to oversee a peaceful transition of power and to build and secure a Uganda that works for everyone.
Our primary focus must be on the future. We are fighting for the future of this country and we are wiser and stronger when we indeed make this a focal point of our plans and strategies. The undeniable reality is this: a new age is upon us and today’s wisdom will be insufficient tomorrow. We owe it to the Ugandan people, particularly the youth, to plan for a better future because, to quote one American politician talking about his government in 1984, “if this administration has a plan for a better future, they’re keeping it a secret.”
There are approximately 15.7 million voters out there, many of them desperate for change; all of them worse off than they would otherwise be with effective governance, well functioning public services, strong institutions and rule of law. Of these, we would need just under 8 million to secure victory. My friends this victory is not merely possible, it is within our grasp. With true unity, meticulous organization and a focus that is laser-sharp we will
win this election and fulfill our solemn duty to transform this country for good.
I look forward to working with every single one of you to make this happen.
Let’s Go Forward!
Thank you,
God bless you and God bless Uganda.
Uganda – TDA is to be TBD!
Today was the day the result of the Flag-Bearer for the coalition of the oppisisiton parties in Uganda. The Presidential Candidate of the TDA is supposed to go against the big shot, His Excellency Yoweri Kaguta Museveni and his NRM party. The machine that also controls the Parliament and the Electoral Commission of the country!
So the candidate that is running against the machine and manufacture of the modern Uganda has to be strong. Have to viable, have a moral code and some integrity to pass on the marshes to corruptness in a political landscape where the parties and fellow politicians has been bought or brought into shambles. If you don’t follow the codes of ethics of the man with a vision you can be played out and lose your career in a hot minute. If you don’t follow his words and the main cronies of the nation then your left behind. If you try to be independent and thinking in the NRM party then you’re pushed to the side and clipped your wings. If the Mzee fears that you have ambitions to take his slot, then he will leave you behind as he has done to Hon. Gilbert Bukenya and Hon. Amama Mbabazi.
Four Men standing up for being the Joint Presidential Candidate in the TDA:
So we are here today when many has followed this Ifs in different equations and with various formulas that ends in the result of losing out on their place in the ruling party. An makes you lost in the opposition. Certain people has gone out after finding the words of the Mzee to be going back on the principals they fought for their freedom in the Bush. This is the likes of certain FDC historical’s and the famous Flag-Bearer of the FDC Dr. Kizza Besigye. Who have been a pawn and a man who has gone for title and grand position election after election and lost after rigging and harassment!
The second man who also wants to be the Flag-Bearer in the TDA is Hon. Amama Mbabazi who has gone from being a loyalist to the Mzee and recently fallen from grace. Even tried in the preliminaries to go head to head and be the Presidential Candidate in the NRM. He sure lost that one to Mzee, not surprisingly; only one man’s vision can rule the NRM! So that the Mababazi is a runner for it was after signing the deal to be a part of the TDA only 12 days ago and independent candidate through the Go-Forward Ticket in the hierarchy of the coalition.
The third ones was Gilbert Bukenya as another former loyalist in the NRM regime that fallen from grace, but didn’t have the strength and support from others in the coalition therefore hasn’t been issue of his place. Still it proves that the fallen ones have a place and their knowledge can be used in a coalition to defeat the NRM and Mzee.
Last candidate was Norbert Mao who has had a viable position up North and been long in the politics. But still hasn’t the whole nation behind him. Especially with his bickering back and from acting as opposition candidate to speaking like he was a part of Mzee’s team. So that the parties didn’t see him as serious flag-bearer in the coalition wasn’t really a newsflash!
The other parties didn’t send their front men or woman to being Presidential Candidate. Like the CP, PPP, UPC and JEMA. That is Olara Otunnu of the UPC, Jaberi Bidandi Ssali of the PPP, Ken Lukyamuzi of the CP and Asuman Basalirwa of the JEEMA. Leaders who could easily gone forward and also filled the nomination form and justly so.
So that it’s natural and would be worrying wouldn’t be issues between Amama Mbabazi of the Go-Forward Ticket and Dr. Kizza Besigye of the FDC Ticket. The issues will be on who is most fit. Then that the parties also vote differently on who they believe is most fit as the Press Statement from TDA told today. That certain parties went for the People’s President and the other went for the Go-Forward Ticket. It’s natural that people choose differently. Even if there is only one man with a vision – the Mzee! But he is not really the issue the here, only that the candidate as Flag-bearer has to beat the Mzee. Therefore the coalition can’t be fragmented and weaken since the approach as single units against the NRM ruling party hasn’t been fruitful before. Therefore this is the time to stay stronger together then weaken alone. Especially since that hasn’t worked before.
The NRM has the machine and power. That should be reason to stay united and prove the Mzee that they have an edge. Alone they will be disfranchised and played out. Some can be bought and run to show off so it seems as the country has a multi-party elections and democracy. The elections has been well-rigged and Electoral Commission has placed loyal men of the regime, with the same in courts that has verified the results in the past and given rulings in favor of the ruling party and the Mzee. While the world and nations accepting the rulings and not pressuring the regime to change ways.
With this in mind and with the knowledge both men has Dr. Kizza Besigye and Amama Mbabazi has together with the supposable strength of the opposition parties and the protocol of the TDA to prove guidance and integrity to the Presidential Election in Uganda this coming 2016 that the world has never seen before. That can they do if they have the courage and vitality take the pressure and malice from the NRM regime for a few more months. If so that person should step up and try. Not that there is great chances of succeeding as it looks today, but the opposition has to give it hard nudge in the right direction. As they want to show the citizens and public in Uganda that they want to rule for real as a coalition willing to change and rebuild. Make structures for more free and fair society not only for the cronies and nepotistic Movement Men that want to follow the words and monies from the Mzee. That is not an easy act to change when so many are eating of that plate, even if it is breadcrumbs their better than nothing. But they would be proud if they learned how to fish and catch it themselves and may be even earn enough to actual buy the bread fair and square.
So that the TDA who has been for too long TBD: To Be Determined! Time to determine the place and actions as simple as the Joint Candidate for the TDA! And have a man who can rein this coalition and honor the codes and protocol, with diligence and fight through the coming election which will be full of struggles and not easy ride. If the run-up and months of preliminary meetings has proven anything, then this will be more arrests, more loss of personnel, some more people vanished, preventive arrests, teargassed meetings, sieged town where the oppositions has meetings and so on!
Please all men of TDA take a minute be wise. You all know you go up against and has tasted the bitter taste of being opposition against the NRM regime who will use all the tricks in the world to regain their rule and therefore the opposition got to show heart and prove that there are noble men in the land. Please show that and be different then Mzee who only cares for his coffers and his vision, and has forgotten the words he stood for long time ago. Which is a reason why so many people has deflected from the NRM and from Mzee. Peace.

























