Opinion: I don’t expect Dictators to fall, unless serious changes befall on them!

After Zimbabwe, people have started to blaze the horns and expecting other dictators to fall. Well, I am humbly saying, I hope so, but don’t expect so. Unless, there are vital changes, unless they lose their support and their weapons behind them. If the support and armies are not behind them, than the Robert Mugabe story can be repeated elsewhere. But it will be different from state to state, from president to president. As each President has built around a stronger or weaker system of orders, strength of institutions and also personal cult around themselves. We also know they are using their myths and their state media to serve their interests.

President’s that I will honor with a mention are Joseph Kabila, Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, Pierre Nkurunziza, Faure Gnassingbe, Hailemariam Desalegn, Isias Afwerki, Omar Al-Bashir, Idriss Deby, Paul Biya, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasango, Mahamadou Issoufou, Paul Kagame and Ismaïl Omar Guelleh. These are a list of honorable mentions, there several more that could be put on a list, but these was the first to mention, if feel someone is left behind. Please leave that in the comments down below(I know that sounds like a Youtuber, but I had to take inspiration from somewhere).

All of these men in their republics knows that they use power and security organizations to quell, silence and oppress their opposition. They are keeping control of the state reserves and has their party as filled of loyalists and cronies. All of this states are militarized, there is state controlled media and has various of different rules. They are strict and controlling from the state houses and the freedom in these states are limited. The state and business are usually connected with the President and his family. If not there are cronies who also have business and fortunes. So the dictators are for the moment having control and making sure the people is not uprising.

What we can know is that if these dictators take it to far and the fear for the repercussion from the state. So as long as the public and opposition are detained for arbitrary arrests and citizens hurt after demonstrations. While the state reserves and donor funds are eaten by the elite, while the countries are kept poor. As long as the republic’s are poor, than they still need more foreign donors and supply. So it is good for the dictators to keep their nations poor, as the Western and Multi-National Organization can continue to supply them with non-binding funds. That they are free to use on military and one themselves, instead of building institutions and good governance, it is all controlled by the one man on top and his loyal subjects around.

This is well known and for different reasons, these men should always worry about their decisions and their capacity to rule. Nothing last for ever. There will be some who might want to take their place and replace them. Someone will always be opposition and fight for democratic values, but sooner or later they will succeed. It is just a matter of how and how long it takes.

They are all based on strong military control, even minor specialized groups who are like Presidential Guards/Republican Guards or Special Forces. These are controlled usually by either relations or trusted generals, who are loyal not to turn against the President. The Presidents promotes and demotes leaders inside their armies often, the same in the police force/service to compensate and also to make sure the old guard of warrior and soldiers who fought for the President. Will not be seen as a threat or have power to ever topple him. That is why they are trying to distance themselves from the ones who brought them to power, because they will know their inner-tactics; that is why the stalwarts and historicals are more public personas, but not people of power. Even if they did have so in past.

That is done to secure the role and secure the commander-in-chief, even the President always need the historical battles and origin story to keep himself relevant and prove his place. He don’t needs ones who fought with him and his cause. They will just ask for checks- and balances on the promises made in liberation and in the battles against previous oppressors. That is why they are not entangled with these, unless they give them phony medals and grant money, to hopefully silence them.

Still, with all the protocol and strength of the army, they are still vulnerable as they know this too. That why they are calculating and trying to find out the next person who wants their role and their positions. Which is why there are changes in their cabinets, Vice-Presidents and Prime Ministers. Until they find persons and people they trust to not ambitions to overpower them. Also, they want to stop other MPs and other voices to install hope in the population and to create popularity that is bigger then their personal cult and their teachings.

However, there are ways to bring them down by actually not fearing the state security organizations, waiting for the President to act swiftly without feeling the tensions within his own party. Like President Robert Mugabe did recently. If not actually know you have lost all legitimacy in recent elections, but not willing to step down like Yayha Jammeh. That was ECOWAS and Senegal who intervened on behalf of the newly elected President. Which was the reason for the dictator ending in Exile recently.

Therefore, we have to hope for leaders who have capacity to capture the pulse of the people who are oppressed, of the ones who are marginalized and the ones who are captured by the state. Since the dictatorships doesn’t give up easy, unless there is no escape. History has learned us that and therefore, the lesson needs to be learned. We in our time cannot give in and accept that the liberty, freedom and government are taken by one elite and one ruler.

Certainly, it will not be easy, the fight against oppressors will cost and take time. That is proven time in and time out. The same will happen here, but with their aging and their lack of control. Their trust in family members and trying to create family dynasties. They might fall like Mugabe. Even if some are sons of former presidents. Doesn’t mean they can continue owning the title and running the state. It is proven that is not accepted and that is all within reason. This is what happen in Zimbabwe and we understand if similar events transpire elsewhere.

In the end it is all up to the public for change, the public reactions and their demonstrations, boycotts and their inner works to dismantle the oppressive dictatorship. Often the international community and international counterparts will not intervene as they wants mineral resources and other commodities for cheap; and as long one partner can be bribed, the workers and resources don’t need to paid-in-full or proper. This prospers foreign investments and multi-national companies. This is not well-spoken of, but should be revealed, as it is so often shady dealings with resources sold or land to investors from these dictators. They are funding the state and military, that together with aid are keeping these regimes afloat.

With all this in mind, we have to continue the struggle against these men that are keeping people hostage and taking away freedom and liberty, freedom to assembly and to be activists. They are licensing and authorizing businesses and if people are allowed to have parties and civil society organizations. This are all in different ways, the same with the media and other public ways of sharing information. These are often controlled like all else are in society and in the republic.

We can just wonder if we let this repeat itself, let them continue to oppress and letting these multi-national corporations earn on this forms of government. If we can accept that aid and multi-national organizations keeping budgets and keeping them as leaders, because if these leaders would struggle more economically, more loyalists and more cronies would actually deflect quicker. Also, that if the economy struggle and the security organizations are not paid-off. They could instead of turning their weapons against the public, they could turn against the government/regime. So there are many ways together with public uprising that is needed to topple these dictatorships. Peace.

DRC: Mining Fraudster Col. Abbas Kayonga creates military stand-off in Bukavu!

That the man gets to duplicate a government office and safety commission for exports of minerals from South Kivu. Abbas Kayonga was able for years to duplicate and double commission for checking and securing exports of minerals between South Kivu and Rwanda. Clearly, he was wise enough and used his connection within the local government of South Kivu. But, they must have been tired off it and also the tricks that has been done. As some has been caught by his duplicated commission like in 2015 and others has worked together with him.

Kayonga, must have had connections with the miners and the mineral extraction industry, which means they were able to work with him and also make the documentation legalized through his duplicated operation. That must have been the reason of the colonel Kayonga rise to fortune and possible collections of weapons, as he could have a stand-off with the army after desisting to stand down from his commission. Something he didn’t want to do. But first some context, before what happen today in Bukavu, as he wouldn’t accept, because it has been his racket for years. Take a look!

South Kivu export of Minerals to Rwanda:

The situation in South Kivu is a little more difficult because of the confusion between the

commission against mining fraud, the SPC / South Kivu and the cell fight against mining fraud in

South Kivu led by Mr. ABBAS KAYONGA” (…) “ In Bukavu

information report that the head of the fight against mining fraud cell itself would be involved in

facilitating the smuggling of minerals to Rwanda. 3 main reasons seem to confirm this:

1. The people worked with the RCD (Congolese Rally for Democracy);

2. She lived in Rwanda for several years after reunification;

3. The creation of an anti-cell against mining fraud by the Governor of South Kivu parallel to

the national commission against mining fraud that has a focal point in South Kivu. To understand how the smuggling of minerals between the DRC and Rwanda was being harvested reliable data on the operation of networks operating in the minerals transit areas in Rwanda to Kigali Gisenyi, Kibuye and Shangugu” (SAM-PPA, 2015).

The technical unit in charge of the field operations of the South Kivu mining commission, Kayonga Abbas, seized 60 tons of cassiterite, coltan and olfram in 2015. It handed over these minerals to the Police of the Mines. Their owners paid the public treasury a sum of 33,380 dollars to recover their parcel. Kayonga Abbas laments the involvement of some military officers in mining fraud” (Nyota, 2016).

The Civil Society Coordination Office of South Kivu is delighted by the dismissal of Mr Abbas Kayonga from the Anti-Fraud Unit in South Kivu. Yesterday Wednesday night evening of the dead city around 19h, he would have been surprised to cross in Rwanda, a large shipment of tourmaline. He would have resisted the agents of the DGDA to the point of trying to come to arms. Fortunately he has been mastered. It is a sigh of relief for the population and especially the traders of South Kivu who were hunted down by the latter with imposition doublet, “says the message of Patient Bashombe” (…) “Remember that the anti-fraud cell of the province was a pure duplication of the DPMER. Thing that the civil society through the FEC have always lambasted. Despite the length of the night, the sun finally appears. Beware of all accomplices of fraud, embezzlement, corruption, … and other antivaleurs in the DRC, and particularly in South Kivu. These suicidal practices only accentuate the suffering of the people. The watchful eye of civil society is open and active. Here the opportunity to draw the attention of Governor Claude Nyamugabo to put order in the mining sector. There is food and drink, “says Patient Bashombe” (Lubambo, 2017)

According to security officials, the police officers were deployed to the home of the head of the Anti-Fraud Service which had been suspended on 2 November by Governor Claude Nyamugabo for harassment. This official, prosecuted official sources, is being guarded by armed men who are known neither of the Army nor the Police. The same sources reveal that there would be a cache of weapons at his home in Muhumba” (Radio Okapi, 2017).

Reports indicate that gun battle broke out following an attempt by the Governor of South Kivu province, Claude Nyamugabo, to arrest the provincial anti-smuggling Unit boss, Abbas Kayonga at his home in Muhumba Island. Sources on ground indicate that the Governor allegedly accuses Kayonga of involvement in fraudulent mining and asked him to resign after smuggled minerals were intercepted. It is believed that Kayonga refused to resign and resisted any attempt to arrest him, alleging that the confiscated smuggled minerals belonged to the sister of the area governor. Kayonga, guarded by private security, was seen with a fully loaded machine gun in his garden during the standoff in which grenades and bombs were going off in the area. The crossfire left two of his guards wounded and one of them later this afternoon was reportedly dead from bullet wounds. Eye witnesses say residents in the area were seen fleeing to avoid being caught up in the fracass. Meanwhile, other residents have taken advantage of the situation and looted a church and shops. “This has created losses for Rwandan traders.We have asked residents on Rwandan side to stay calm. We are talking to DRC officials who say that it’s an issue of indiscipline and it will resolved,” the Mayor of Rusizi, Harelimana Frederic said” (Sabiiti, 2017).

So clearly, the gig was up and the time for it stop had to appear. There been rumors of his connection to Rwanda and that he used his connections to build houses and buy land in Rwanda. While could clearly be connected with the mineral industry of Rwanda and their export networks, which is connected with the Kivu provinces. That has been going on for decades. He has just used the commission to make agreements and funds. If not he wouldn’t have all these guns and guards as a civil servant in Bukavu.

This is clearly stopping one racket out of plenty, who are living off and sponging off the mineral extraction and export from South Kivu province to far hinterland. Kayonga is just one out of many, but his story is an example of someone trying to make a government institution, when there already are one and is able to live off it for years. That is what the government has accepted and wonder why it took so long to stop it as well. Since they must have known about the double check-up and commissions who looks into the matter of mineral exports in the province. That is really unique and that Kinshasa has accepted this behavior is something you also should think about. I don’t have the answer, but a reasonable pay-off and envelopes between them might have occurred now and then. Peace.

Reference:

Nyota – ‘Fraude minière: 60 tonnes de cassitérite et de coltan saisies au Sud-Kivu’ (17.02.2017) link: http://www.nyota.net/2016/02/17/fraude-miniere-60-tonnes-de-cassiterite-de-coltan-saisies-sud-kivu/

Lumbambo, Adonis – ‘Suspension d’Abbas Kayonga : Le bureau de coordination de la société civile du Sud-Kivu jubile et charge l’incriminé’ (02.11.2017) link: http://www.laprunellerdc.info/2017/11/02/suspension-dabbas-kayonga-le-bureau-de-coordination-de-la-societe-civile-du-sud-kivu-jubile-et-charge-lincrimine/

Radio Okapi – ‘Sud-Kivu : des tirs entendus depuis le matin à Bukavu’ (05.11.2017) link: https://www.radiookapi.net/2017/11/05/actualite/securite/sud-kivu-des-tirs-entendus-depuis-le-matin-bukavu

Sabiiti, Daniel – ‘Rwandan Traders Stranded At DRC Border As Gunfire Rocks Across’ (05.11.2017) link: http://ktpress.rw/2017/11/rwandan-traders-stranded-at-drc-border-as-gunfire-rocks-across/

Save Act Mine (SAM-PPA) – ‘INTERIM REPORT OF MONITORING PROGRAM OF THE CHAIN

APPROVISIONNMENT MINERALS’ (August-September 2015)

“Prado’s For Principal Secretaries” – Office of the President letter: “Request for 4WDS” for Jubilee Campaigns (16.10.2017)/Disclaimer letter to Nation Media Group (18.10.2017)

U.S. Representative Ted Lieu draft bill: “Swamp Flyers Act” (28.09.2017)

U.S. Senate Committe of Finance letter to DHS on Trump Resorts (14.09.2017)

#BoUPens: BoU bought cheap Cross Ball-Pens for a fortune!

I hate to say it, but the magical pens from the Bank of Uganda (BoU) wasn’t a fairy-tale as expected. It was a cheap corporate pen, that was bought for astronomical sums. They are not so expensive after all. It is Cross Rolling Ball Pen Nor Onyx AT0155-1, the price of this not as high as the Bank paid for it. Unless, they wanted to pay of their importers major profits, however, the Bank must have connections with the traders who sold it to them. If not, why did they pay so much for Cross Ball Pen in the first place.

First, the social commentary from earlier this month:

Hey, Bank of Uganda, the glorious BoU, if you ever need any sort office equipment. I can sell it to you and at lesser cost. It will be fraction of the 357,000 Uganda Shillings per Pens or 125m shillings for 350 pens. At the dollar-rate, you paid $105 United States Dollar for each pen, they must be magnificent and the best pens ever made for the mankind” (Minbane – ‘ Opinion: Bank of Uganda must have bought magical pens!’ 16.08.2017 link: https://minbane.wordpress.com/2017/08/16/httpwp-mep1xtjg-5gh/ ).

Than, by the price of $105 USD for every single Cross Ball Pen, which was made in China. These Ball Pens are really overpriced. On the American Amazon.com price are $36.62. The Amazon product explanation: “Onyx black resin finish with polished chrome appointments – Click off cap accented by a wide chrome band and a sophisticated perforated clip design – Includes one black gel ink rollerball refill (#8523) in pen – Cross Rollerball pens can be converted into a ballpoint pen or creamy porous felt-tip pen by changing the refill to desired type of tip (Refills sold separately) – Presented in a gift box” (Amazon – ‘Cross Aventura Onyx Black Rollerball Pen (AT0155-1)’ link: https://www.amazon.com/Cross-Aventura-Black-Rollerball-AT0155-1/dp/B0017UGOZC).

So if the Bank of Uganda are importing the pens, than the price would go up. Both most like not cost more than maybe around $60 USD a pop. Clearly, the BoU are liking the idea of the overpaying the pen. The Bank might have bought it from places like Corporate Gifts Pens, there they would get discounted for amounts of pens they would by. That is like if they buy over 100 pens, around $24,79, so the price of pens would be cheaper. Even engraved pens cost added on that page $5 each, that means the price would be around $29,79.

Still, with that the price difference are $70-75, which has to paid extra to the providers or suppliers. The government and the Bank of Uganda must be really proud of who they bought it from. If not, the Chairman or the leadership of the BoU really know the family or written-off the profits to paid their mortgage.

This here was not about quality or unique pen. Just a very ordinary pen. Not even in the quality of the Parker Pens. The BoU has really scammed the people and the Bank doesn’t care about the misuse of state funds. Peace.

Opinion: President Museveni praises Equatorial Guinea for it’s rampant Oil-Corruption; wants to learn his tricks!

In these days the President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni of the Republic of Uganda are on a state visit in Malabo, visiting and learning tricks from the Equatorial Guinean President Teodoro Nguema Obiang, who has used the oil to enrich himself and his loyal subjects. Not build a welfare state, but make sure the family of Obiang get wealthy. Certainly, Uganda is preparing for their own oil production in the Lake Albertine basin, as the pipeline building from the production to the Port Tanga in Tanzania.

This is why President Museveni are visiting Equatorial Guinea to learn the tricks of the trade, as the state of Uganda are still in the dark of the oil-deals between the international companies and the state. We can wonder how the funds will be spoiled and how Museveni plans to use the oil funds for personal gains. If so, he wouldn’t praise President Obiang, who has his whole career to spend the oil profits from his republic. This is what Museveni wants to learn, since his career has been tricking out all sorts of play from Ugandan republic. The petroleum profits can be misspent and hidden just like in the republic of Obiang. Take a look!

President Museveni’s praise:

We are therefore in Equatorial Guinea for two things: looking at how to support prosperity of one another and how to push for our strategic security. I also congratulate Equatorial Guinea for using it’s oil and gas very well. When I was last here for the AU Summit, I noticed gaps between the airport and the city centre. Today, all these gaps were gone. In their place are new, well-planned buildings. And I see the city is refurbished. Some people say oil is a curse but in Equatorial Guinea it is a blessing” (Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, 26.08.2017)

Business in Equatorial Guinea:

Since the discovery of the offshore oil deposits, many investors have shown great interest in the country. Foreign direct investment inflows into the country had thus been consistently high for the past years. Nevertheless, in 2016 the FDI inflow amounted to USD 54 million, a sharp decrease from USD 233 million recorded the previous year (and the historical peak of USD 2.73 billion in 2010) . The total stock of FDI in the country is currently at USD 13.4 billion” (…) “Corruption in particular is problematic. In addition, the business climate of the country remains rather unfavourable for investment. Cumbersome procedures and high compliance costs slow licensing and make starting a business more difficult. Weak regulatory and judicial systems may discourage foreign investment as well, along with high credit costs and limited access to financing. The government controls long-term lending through the state-owned development bank. Equatorial Guinea ranked 178th out of 190 countries in the 2017 Doing Business report published by the World Bank, losing three spots compared to the previous year” (Santander Trade, 2017).

Son of the President on trial:

The corruption trial of Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue, the son of the president of Equatorial Guinea, ended in Paris on 6 July with the prosecution calling for a three-year jail term, a €30 million (US$34 million) fine and the confiscation of assets. The Tribunal will return a verdict on 27 October. The 48-year-old vice-president of Equatorial Guinea was not in court to hear the prosecution’s claim that he used money stolen from his country’s treasury and laundered through a shell company to fund a lavish lifestyle in France” (Transparency International, 2017).

This was what that is well-known of the Equatorial Guinea corruption and the son of President has also had challenging cases in the United States. Now the son is also having alleged fraud and criminal charges in France. Clearly, the Ugandan President has already known for corruption behavior. Therefore, even a state agency of PPDA has some words, that the government needs strict regulations before procurement and infrastructure development. This will be clearly important when it comes to petroleum industry. Take a look!

PPDA strict regulation on public procurement:

Public procurement is a key pillar of the public financial management system. The country’s budget and plans are translated into actual services to our people through the public procurement system. It is also the link between the public sector and the private sector as it is the medium through which the private sector does business with Government. Public procurement therefore involves large sums of money and as our budget grows with the priorities of Government remaining infrastructure development, the proportion of the budget earmarked for public procurement remains significant and therefore calls for strict regulation” (PPDA, 2017).

Audits and investigations by the Public Procurement and Disposal of Assets indicate that corruption in the procurement process manifests more in the evaluation of bids, reported to be at 58%. PPDA’s Manager Capacity Building Ronald Tumuhairwe says such corrupt practices lead to awarding of contracts to incompetent individuals hence shoddy works in several government projects” (…) “He adds that the second process where corruption manifests is awarding of contracts at 12.5%, followed by receipt and opening of bids, reviewing evaluation of bids, advertising and signing of contracts” (Sebunya, 2017).

President Museveni clearly has own agencies saying it is important with strict regulations on procurement and infrastructure developments like the ones needed for oil industry in the republic. The regulation of oil industry is lax, to make sure the state isn’t transparent with its profits and taxation of the industry. This is what Museveni wants, that the state and the public doesn’t know the contracts or the agreements between the parties involved. That is something President Obiang surely have the capacity to teach Museveni. And how to make sure his family is earning from the state resource, instead of the public and the state itself. Peace.

Reference:

Transparency International – ‘ON TRIAL FOR CORRUPTION: FRENCH PROSECUTORS DEMAND JAIL TERM AND €30 MILLION FINE FOR OBIANG’ (11.07.2017) link: https://www.transparency.org/news/feature/on_trial_for_corruption_french_prosecutors_demand_jail_term_and_30_million

Santander Trade – ‘EQUATORIAL GUINEA: FOREIGN INVESTMENT’ (August 2017) link: https://en.portal.santandertrade.com/establish-overseas/equatorial-guinea/investing-3

Sebunya, Wycliffe – ‘Corruption manifests most in the procurement process – IG’ (25.08.2017) link:http://radioonefm90.com/corruption-manifests-most-in-the-procurement-process-ig/

PPDA – ‘EVALUATING INNOVATIVE ANTI CORRUPTION POLICIES IN PUBLIC PROCUREMENT IN UGANDA’ (02.08.2017) link: https://www.ppda.go.ug/evaluating-innovative-anti-corruption-policies-in-public-procurement-in-uganda/