Opinion: Odrek was sent on a mission bound to end in failure…

The son-in-law Odrek Rwabwogo, the Presidential Advisory Committee on Exports and Industrial Development (PACEID) who is a delegate and a government official on a mission for the Republic to salvage AGOA and keep good trade relations with the United States of America. His suddenly disappointed that his mandate and office isn’t bearing fruits in the Washington D.C.

It is like the Son-in-Law didn’t know what would meet him. Like he couldn’t see the Biden Administration and their policies. They have certain stings attached and ideals behind them, which won’t consider or be terms that they will consider to flinch on. That’s why the son-in-law isn’t getting results or any sort of positive vibe.

That isn’t strange either. Odrek was sent on a fools errand. There was nothing to gain here at the moment. Unless, he knew about secret repeal of a legislation or a sudden ability to revoke it. This all stem from the enactment and legalization of the Anti-Homosexuality Act. Whatever you think about that… this is the reason and the National Resistance Movement (NRM) should have seen it coming. They knew the sentiments of the donors and the West. If they wanted to play ball. They had to give way and not pass the act. However, it did… and now it faces consequences for doing so.

The loss of AGOA will be costly and exports will halt. There will be another tariff and make it more expensive to export to the United States markets. A market that is vital and big for exports. Therefore, the Ugandan businesses and value-addition industries will be hurt by this.

The Son-in-Law should know the sentiments and the reasons for the fall-out. It isn’t like the Government of Uganda or any high ranking official has tried to appease Washington D.C.. Instead, it has spoken ill of it and said they could keep the “plague”. When you do that… there is little good fate and neither trust or justification to rescind a decision. That’s what is so striking here.

The NRM and Museveni knows all of this and they have been here before. That’s why a similar law was thrown out. Just so the NRM and Museveni could get back into the good graces. If we would see something similar in December 2023 or early 2024 wouldn’t be surprising. As the deficit financing and businesses needs to cover their shortfall as a result of the law.

I have discussed the hypocrisy of the U.S. before and won’t copy that again. That has already been told. However, this is all about a son-in-law and government that knows the drill. They know what they have to do and is naive to think otherwise. However, here we are and Odrek isn’t as smart as he thought he was. Maybe he thought he could sell porkies and make gold. Nevertheless, that’s not how things works.

The NRM and Odrek have stipulations and articles to follow to be in accordance with AGOA. If they want to be there and be designated for the trade. They better adhere to it and then they will return. That’s up to the government and parliament to do. These has to decide and make amends. That’s if they want to be a part of it.

Regardless of just that… something got to give and the son-in-law just got to have his Damascus moment. Until then, nothing will happen. Peace.

South Africa: Ezulweni Investments (pty) Ltd – Media Statement (05.12.2023)

Opinion: Kasaija proves that the rot of corruption is everywhere…

“I don’t sleep, I’ve been looking for money. I’m abused by my colleagues that I don’t give them money. When I give them money, they don’t use it for the purpose it has been given. The question of corruption is getting to the nerves of some of us. The corrupt should not be in our government. We work so hard. We worked so hard to bring this county to where it is now but people want to derail us and take the country into wars unnecessarily” – Finance Minister Matia Kasaija (02.12.2023).

No surprises. No sudden changes. The winds haven’t changed. Neither have the tidal waves or the tides of the sea. No, everything is like normal. The cows are being fed. The chickens are being slaughtered and the eggs are collected. Nothing out of the ordinary. Even the nsenene are being sold on the market of Kampala.

The sun is shining and the flow of currency is on overload. There is no rash decision or law that has been amended. No, there is no new Financial Policy or White Paper that has been put forward. Neither has the OAG, IGG or PPDA issued anything of substance. Neither has the FIA or UIA for that matter. There is even a special unit operating in the State House too. Therefore, the state has enough organizations and authorities to combat the corruption. However, they are all ending up with nothing.

This is why nothing changes… because it is a whole lot of nothing. Only small fries, small fishes and the ones who are duped who get caught. The ones who has no leverage or connections. The little guys in the up-country districts to dares to eat of other people’s plates. They are captured and taken into custody. While the authorities says they captured someone who defrauded the state and misused funds.

We have heard of ghosts, missing funds and other tales of late. We are so accustomed to it. That the mabaati and the ghosts SACCOs, NAADs, Emooya, OWC and whatnot just become staple food. The lack of oversight gives the high ranking officials a power to create ghosts and get a pay-off. They just claim to build a bridge or procure furniture for their offices. However, the bridge or the furnitures will never exists, except for on paper and during votes on the budget.

That the Finance Minister is saying these words. It is fine that his calling it out. The deceased Governor of Bank of Uganda must feel good in his afterlife. Seeing how a colleague is ranting out in public. We know that the IGG or OAG have no intentions of shielding or securing whistle-blowers. Therefore, it is a danger to call out mischief and illicit funds. Because, why do that when your career is on the line?

That’s why nothing of his words matters. The system is rotten to the core and it’s been celebrated with Presidential Handshakes, tax-holidays and pay-off’s for service rendered. That’s why nothing will change and the President is fine with that. The daily pay-days are here to stay and the Finance Minister just have to cough up the dough.

Kasaija have served this regime for decades now. He knows the drill and his been fine with it. Maybe now and then been ranting, but his one of them. The President has entrusted him with the office and knows he delivers. That’s why his retained, time and time again. The Minister wouldn’t be there if the President didn’t know he would serve him correctly.

The message is fine in itself, but it is pointless. When you know the authorities, the organizations and the state itself in indifferent. The fellow peers and the ones above him don’t mind. They are jubilant and gets off easy. These are people who are used to eating of others people’s plates. The ones doing so have no intention or plans to stop. It is free food and a feast. The bounty is on the table and why call it out. When you get the meat, the beans and the matooki. It is just time to enjoy it and have some tea after the meal. Peace.

Malawi: Secretary for Labour Wezi Kayira – Press Release (24.11.2023)

Opinion: Mr. President, it’s your policies from the 1990s that made Busoga poor…

“I have been peeping through my car window as I travelled here for this function and I have kept wondering to myself how do these people (in Busoga sub region) live through this sort of poverty? I have screened through all these villages where I have passed but the houses and all the other things I have seen have left me wondering how it’s possible for our people [in Busoga] to survive through these hard economic conditions”– President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni (18.11.2023).

We are living in 2023 and the generations that saw the implementation of the Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs) are old, bitter or forgotten about. They saw the implications and the costs of doing so. The privatization and liberalization of the economy, which was the stipulations of the Bretton Woods Organizations and getting loans in the 1990s. This was at a time when President Museveni himself was a “new breed” of leadership and even a President that Bill Clinton spoke kindly of.

However, those days are gone, decades later and the grim realities of the effects of those policies are now coming to haunt the government. Industries and the industrial hub of Jinja city died as a cause of this. State owned and operated Cooperatives ceased to exist, sold or just dissolved. The ones thriving industries was sold for scraps and are now a jaded memory. While it was decades one of the points and cities that pumped foreign currency and created wealth.

The National Resistance Movement (NRM) and President Museveni earned fortunes on the loans, grants and the SAPs. They got favours and favourable terms for the central government, but the businesses, state owned enterprises or cooperatives had to adjust to new terms. Which inflicted harm and damage, which have never been able to heal.

That why this was reported earlier in the year:

“According to the Busoga Development Agenda (BDA), Busoga’s economic collapse is partly a result of the collapse of Jinja’s industrial prowess due to the 1994 privatization policy and weakening of the cooperative movement in Busoga, a disunited political leadership and cultural leadership differences that destabilized the role of the Kyabazingahood as a rallying point for the unity of Busoga after the demise of the late His Royal Highness Henry Wako Muloki” (Busoga Today – ‘Development and Economic Empowerment’, 22.07.2023).

If you ever wonder how the process and the sales was done by the National Resistance Movement (NRM). Well, it is done like it has always been done. It has been done with favours and within own ranks, the NRM Way. The way of the President and his inner-circle. They are getting bargains and good deals or a trade for loyalty. That’s what Museveni does and he can sell of anything, if it benefits him and his time in office. He don’t care if a hotel goes bust or gets sold for scraps. Museveni don’t mind if a factory or a cooperative gets locked in and gets worse ownership. No, he sold something and return he got a loyal crony. That’s the business model and that how you destroy industries and production.

Just read this one here from an Academic Paper in 2011:

“During the privatization process at least seven (9%) out of 74 SOEs were undervalued and sold to government employees costing government Shs. 4.3 billion (US$2.2) (over US$2,152,000 at US$=Shs.2, 000).xxxvi Undervaluation (AV>SP) was calculated as the excess of asset value (AV) over the sales price (SP). The undervaluation was explained by politics and weak private sector. First, the ruling party supporters included cabinet ministers, presidential advisers, National Resistance Movement (NRM) supporters and Members of Parliament (MPs). In order to marshal political support, the ruling NRM either undervalued or condoned default” (…) “Second, undervaluation was expected even before sale if the locals were to buy SOEs. What was not expected, however, was the preferred sale of the SOEs to NRM cadres and family members of President Museveni. Before sale, it was realized that the locals would not be able to buy all assets offered for privatization. Total SOE assets exceeded all the amount of money in the Ugandan Banks. While total SOEs assets were valued at Shs. US$ 1 m (Shs. 200 billion), the entire money supply was just shs. 50 billion and bank deposits stood at shs. 46 billion end of January 1989” (David Kibikyo – ‘Fiscal impact of privatization in Uganda 1992-2007’ July 2011, African Journal of Political Science and International Relations Vol. 5(7), pp. 371-387).

So, when the NRM comes to town and Busoga and says “vote for NRM we bring development”. Well, in regards to the Busoga sub-region. The NRM has brought the opposite. The President and his policies from the 1990s and early 1980s are the destructive means, which destroyed the industries of Jinja. That’s a fact and the sale of SOEs didn’t benefit the sub-region either. It was a drive to keep the inner-circle happy and the enrich his family. That’s what the gist of the privatization, which hurt Busoga and other owned state owned enterprises across the Republic.

The President can act like a visitor and as a stranger to Busoga in 2023. However, it is his will and his choices that put them there. He decided to take the International Monetary Funds (IMF) and World Bank (WB) funds that entailed the SAPs. The President didn’t mind the implications and complied, as he saw positive outcomes… profits internally and externally become beloved. Because, he followed “Washington Consensus” and traded the future of the nation for a few silver coins. That’s what he did and now his blaming the Busoga in part for their poverty. When he can be blamed and should carry a heavy burden for doing so. Peace.

Opinion: Nothing but the best is good enough, Everton…

Today the fans of Everton must be devastated. The Evertonians must be shattered over the news about the 10 points deduction after breaches of the Premier League’s Profitability and Sustainability Rules (PSRs). That’s all stems from the lack revenue and the building of the new stadium at Bramley Moore Docks. This in combination of lacking revenue and additional expenses has caused the Premier League to sanction the club.

This is an unfortunate situation for the Toffee’s who has barely avoided relegation two seasons in a row. They haven’t been stable or been in a soft corner or a while now. The leadership of the club has been fluctuated and it has caused further lack of cohesive strategy. That’s why the owner has hired and fired managers on a semi-regular basis. It isn’t a winning formula to build a squad or a successive football club. While the same club has been moving along plans to develop and build a new stadium.

What is striking is that this all stems from a mismanagement and a financial breach of £19.5m in one season and that is now the reason for the 10 points deduction this season. The lack of clarity or foresight is the reason for all of this. While one sponsorship deal with a Russian Company that season could have soften the blow, as it was anticipated to be in the realms of £10m, but the club didn’t do that because of the Russian invasion. Therefore, it has reasons for the lack of revenue and could clearly explain the breach of FFP and PSRs.

It is just such a big punishment for this. When you know other clubs are mixing and juicing up their revenues. This isn’t only a Everton problem that the club has to fix and find ways to adjust the books. There are other clubs that is facing investigations and has to answer for questionable transactions and bookkeeping. Therefore, if Everton is hit this hard… how hard will this be against Chelsea or Manchester City?

Everton is a small player in this one. In the pond of Premier League there are other masters and owners who has another level of spending. These are owners who has used plenty of tricks and ways to “generate revenue” to cover the sudden rise of “expenditure”. That isn’t an Everton problem, but a Premier League problem.

Moshiri and Kenwright has their reasons and their blame. They have built the club this way and now the Toffee’s faces the depressing punishment. The club was safe and getting well ahead of the curb. Now the club is in the relegation zone and will have to continue to win matches to even become safe this season.

Everton and the crowds of Goodison Park have the rights to feel hurt today. They have the rights to wonder why this punishment is coming their way. Some says its the poor who suffers and the rich gets away with it. At the moment is seems so and the onlookers are wondering if there will be any ramifications for the owners and clubs who has more than one breach. This being Chelsea and Manchester City.

If Everton can get deductions over building a stadium. What about Manchester City and their 115 alleged breeches against the FFP? Or the Chelsea allegations in the Abramovich and whatever financial voodoo they do under Boehly?

Questions remain, if there is only clubs like Everton who will face the Independent Commission and get into jeopardy in the League. Because, that’s far from fair and any honest person would wonder why it’s only them who has to face the music.

The Blues and the Toffees should have fared better, but this is where they are. The rules are there, but they have to be implemented alike across the board and the league itself. Not just against one and not against the others. Especially, when it feels like it and it’s easier to take the club who has fought relegation for some time. Then let’s say the clubs who are competing in Champions League and visiting European capitals on a regular basis. Peace.

Opinion: Otaala fears transparency… [and we need to know what stipulations there are in the Vitol agreement]

“MP Emmanuel Otaala (West Budama South) mocked Jimmy Akena (Lira East Division) for behaving like his father (Milton Obote) who was a dictator, after the former First Son refused to switch off his microphone in a heated Committee meeting at Parliament.

Akena: Don’t overrule everything and not listen to others, the point here is very critical, I am going to continue. I am not switching it (microphone) off.

Otaala: Your dad was a dictator and that is on record”

(…) ”Earlier on, the two had disagreed over attempts by Otaala to block media from covering Committee proceedings on the scrutiny of the contract signed between Government and Vitol (company hired as sole importer of fuel and gas products into Uganda) over claims that the agreement had confidentiality clauses. Akena questioned Vitol’s business ethics citing the US$135m the company was fined by US & Brazil Gov’t on bribery allegations” (ParliamentWatch, 08.11.2023).

Today we heard a story as old as time, a Parliamentary Committee wants to hide or keep things private. Even when their hearing and inquiry is public. The Committee Chairman Otaala must be ordered and wanted to adhere to it. While Akena pushed for openness, as the citizens should know the details behind Vitol and the Government of Uganda (GoU).

It is bad when the government is hiring a company to do one, as they are creating a monopoly and the stipulations of the agreement should be made public. The agreement should be known … and what it details. However, we are now aware that Otaala as a part of the government doesn’t want the truth out. Meaning the reasons for not unleashing it must be bad and the core parts of the deal might be shady. That’s why the dissent and opposition pushed the edges…

Otaala can call Obote whatever he wants and Obote has to live up to his legacy. Just like Otaala will live up to his own. His actions today isn’t good looking and now I want to have more insight into the Vitol agreement, which has monopoly of imports of fuel and gas to the Republic. That is needed to be public and not be kept in an achieve.

That Akena pushes the Chairman and gets him on “edge” is good for the Republic actually. Because, then maybe the truth can come out or if not be able to set a date for further inquiry. As the stakeholders and the ones signing the agreement should meet the committee in question. There is a need for more meat on the bone and the “hot-air” is solving anything.

The agreement was apparently also made in darkness and now Akena or others has to shed a light on it. As the citizens needs to know what is going on and why the GoU did this. Peace.

Ethiopia: AfDB County Manager attacked by Security Officers…

“There are widespread reports that the AfDB Group Ethiopia Country Office has suspended operations due to an attack on the Country Manager & Deputy Director General, Dr. Abdul Kamara. According to multiple news reports, Dr. Kamara was attacked by the security personnel of finance minister Ahmed Shide after Dr. Kamara questioned the Ministry of Finance about $5.2 million that was supposedly paid to AfDB, but appears to have been embezzled” (Biruk Haregu, 06.11.2023).

This here sets a bad precedence and is a sign of the times. There is only more trouble ahead and Ethiopia isn’t getting any better. Especially, when diplomatic and multi-national institutions like the Africa Development Bank County Manager is attacked and has to flee the Republic.

The Prosperity Party that needs donors and fiscal stimulus to keep the budgets a float. As the war-economy is biting and dwindling fresh funds. The FDRE needs partners and support for their development projects and in general domestic expenditure, which isn’t being covered easily these days. Therefore, the reports of an attack on the AfDB says something about the desperation of the PP at the moment.

They are willing to go down to this level of thuggery. The PP is acting vile and vicious against a supposed ally. This is a bank serving interests and finding out ways to invest in Ethiopia. That’s what the likes of AfDB does and its serves with great terms too on their loans. Therefore, to muffle and silence it… is outrageous and the other Development Banks should take note of this.

This here shouldn’t remain silent, but be loud. It shows what the state is willing to do. They can apparently just attack someone and do it easily. AfDB and no one else should worry about their safety, but apparently they need to. No one is safe and no is untouchable in the Republic. Peace.

Opinion: Abiy can go back to 1992 for a favourable agreement on the usage of the Assab or Massawa ports…

“The Government signed a ports and transit services agreement with the State of Eritrea on 20 January 1992. According to the agreement, the ports of Assab and Massawa in Eritrea shall serve Ethiopia as transit ports for surface transport of goods originating from and destined for Ethiopia. It was provided in the agreement that the contracting parties shall endeavour to take all measures necessary for the expeditious movement of traffic and to avoid unnecessary transit delays of goods passing through their respective territories. The parties have agreed to simplify and harmonize transport and transit documents and procedures to facilitate the smooth flow of goods in transit. Similar agreements were signed for the road, air and communication services between the two countries” (…) “For years, Ethiopia’s foreign trade enjoyed constant access to the sea and foreign markets mainly through theports of Assab, Massawa, and Djibouti. The port of Assab, which has seven general cargo berths and well equipped handling facilities, alone handled over 75 percent of the country’s sea-borne dry cargo trade that flows via the Red Sea Corridor while Massawa and Djibouti shared the rest. Coffee, the main Ethiopian export, was mostly shipped via Assab, enjoying the preferential tariff and other advantages the port used to offer. The nation’s crude oil import is shipped in via this port and the products are distributed from there to the hinterlands by road after refinement. Petroleum products needed for use in the Eastern Regions of Ethiopia are trans-shipped through the port of Djibouti” (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development – Transit transport system in Ethiopia, 06.02.1995).

As the warning lights are going off and the Horn of Africa might seem more conflict. The warlord of Addis Ababa is never finished. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali who aren’t finished with the internal conflict in Amhara. Is trying to settle grievances in Tigray and has problematic affairs elsewhere in the Republic. That man is trying to forge another narrative and make reasons for an invasion.

An invasion of Eritrea, either for the bounds of owning ports or “Afar Unity”. Suddenly he cares about the people of Afar. The people he didn’t mind or work hard to defend when the internal war was going on in the Tigray region. That time it was the front-lines and several of zones was damaged in the Afar region. A region that was hit hard and also suffered as a consequence of the war in Tigray. They also fought and stood tall in the midst of adversity. However, now after the conflict, he suddenly cares about them and want their loyalty.

Yet, it is all for the megalomania of Abiy. He wants the prestige and greatness. No matter what agreement or favourable tariffs. That doesn’t really matter. He wants to be crowned king and be the greatest ruler. Even if he rules over dust after burning down the whole empire. He don’t mind death and massacres. Not as long as his the King and they are his peasants. That’s all that counts in the grand scheme of things.

Abiy will use Massawa and Assab as reasons for conquest. Even if it is re-starting an old conflict with Eritrea. The ownership question isn’t really that important, but he will fight over it. Just so he can be sovereign and be supreme. He will order soldiers and hope for allies to tag along. Because, he need troops and need mechanical divisions to create enough fronts to have an advantage. While he still fights in Amhara region and never been able to stagnate or silence the Oromo Liberation Army. Therefore, Abiy is going overboard and over reaching. He doesn’t have the capacity, but he don’t mind.

Abiy wants the glory and the tales that he “built” and “annexed” a Great Ethiopia. In that picture he needs a palace and access to the Red Sea. For him it doesn’t matter at what cost or consequences. No, that is just results of his orders. There are other people who will pay the price of their lives and livelihood. As long as he can stand by the waterfront and proclaim the divine power or ownership of it.

While a stranger and a random bloke would be happy for the agreements made in the past. Which favours the Ethiopian exports or imports through these ports. We know the FDRE has made agreements with Djibouti and used that as main ports for years now. However, Abiy wants to change that and have total control of it. Not just being a silent partner and a trading partner. He wants a say… even when Eritrea has allowed and accepted great terms. As this is beneficial for both nations. Peace.

Opinion: Mzee’s arrogance towards AGOA…

“I need to advise you not to be over-concerned by the recent actions by the American Government in discouraging their companies from investing in Uganda and on removing Uganda from the AGOA list” – President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni (05.11.2023).

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is an opportunity for the businesses in Uganda to export products or produce, raw material and others to the United States of America on unique terms. Which has been beneficial for other nations. While the National Resistance Movement (NRM) haven’t been able to develop or follow the terms or conditions for such is another matter. As we know the Kenyans are much more thrifty and has set the standard on these matters. That’s maybe why the President is so arrogant and brushes it off.

A key aspect in the letter from U.S. President Joe Biden on the 30^th October was this:

“Despite intensive engagement between the United States and the Central African Republic, Gabon, Niger, and Uganda, these countries have failed to address United States concerns about their non-compliance with the AGOA eligibility criteria.” (Biden, 30.10.2023).

The key term here is “non-compliance” and meaning the Ugandan authorities or government itself is breaching the agreement, which is reason for the opportunity to trade within the framework of AGOA. The Ugandan government might disagree with these conditions or terms, but has to comply to be eligible in the first place. That’s the rule that AGOA sets on anyone and they just have to comply. It is as simple as that.

However, Museveni wants it his way…

“Uganda, under the NRM, is and will succeed, regardless of what some of the external actors and internal detractors do. The further good news, is that not all the Western Countries’ actors are of the same arrogant attitude. Many, actually, either agree with us or believe in the correct principles of live and let live. Even in the colonial times, some Western actors supported our anti-colonial struggle. People like Fenner Brockway, Dingle Foot, Olof Palme, etc., supported us” (Museveni, 05.11.2023).

The U.S. legislation of AGOA is a “new” one in some senses, as it only dates back to 2020. It isn’t a colonial relic or a mechanism from the days of slavery. No, it is a modern one, which has one important aspect.

That is explained like this: “The legislation significantly enhances market access to the US for qualifying Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. It does that by allocating a special program indicator (‘D’) to approximately 6,800 tariff lines in the US tariff schedule, which allows US importers to clear such goods – sourced from eligible African countries – duty-free under AGOA” (AGOA – About AGOA).

This explanation is stating one fact, which the businesses of Uganda misses out on. They will loose out on favourable tariffs when exporting to the U.S. Market. Meaning the prices of exporting will go up and the viability to enter the market will be much tougher. On the short-term its only the ones supplying and exporting the U.S. under these terms that is hit today. However, in the long run… the ones who wants or have a chance. They will either be to expensive or to much red-tape to get there. Which isn’t better for development or trading in general.

The AGOA and principals of AGOA could be beneficial for Ugandan businesses. Especially, if export businesses and the ones who has value-added enterprises wanted to significantly enter a capitalistic market and ensure possibility of selling on a large scale. Because, that what you do, if you get a shot.

We see that the President doesn’t value this and for his often speaking of value-addition. This here is the opposite and it isn’t clever. Neither using arrogance or colonialism. The AGOA is about an opening to a market and ability to trade without to many hurdles. The AGOA has stipulations, but if you adhere to them. You get prospects of entering a market, which gives you possible profits. Therefore, you are foolish to let this one slide. However, that is what the President does and he doesn’t mind.

Actually, the President isn’t concerned… and that is telling. Peace.