Chinese Investments in Africa: It is not a free-lunch, the tab has to be paid!

African leaders should not turn the continent into a giant collector of donations and loans from wealthy nations—they must find other plausible means to help established their economic security so as to minimize poverty. This incoherent blunder on the mainland must be scrutinized.”Duop Chak Wuol

As The 2018 Beijing Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) is scheduled to happen on the 2nd and 3rd December 2018, there is time to remember how the Chinese is operating on the African Continent. The Chinese isn’t coming with empty giving hands of donations or even charity. They come with intent of interests and needs of resources from the continent, by offering loans, serving and building through state owned enterprises (SOE) in various of countries, whether it is roads, ports or railroads are built by Chinese Companies, by Chinese Workers and often on Chinese loans. Therefore, they might end up as Chinese owned enterprises, whose vital for transportation and export of needed minerals and whatnot from the continent.

Instead of coming with loans and direct-aid with strings like Western Powers has done over the last few decades, the Chinese are coming with friendly loans, but the Heads of State should know that the Chinese doesn’t play. They want value for money and expect a return, if it doesn’t they might snatch the new crown-jewel or anticipate to get perks from the state. If that is some sort of trade-off or licenses to extract mineral resources or even minor taxation like toll-roads, where the piece of cash will be sent to Beijing and not the capitol of the country where the road is built. That is how these people operate. They are not in it to play or be giving, but gain advantage and have the upper-hand.

This can be shown by what the State Media in China writes in Xinhua Net wrote today and what a CARI report on the same funds are saying. The Chinese portray the funding as investments on the Continent, as the funds are most likely pushed as loans, which burdens the states and that they have to repay. Loans are not given, but issued because of lack of direct funds to build those infrastructure and investments done. So, what I am saying isn’t mere speculation, but a narrative that has to sink in.

Chinese Investments:

China’s investments into Africa surged by more than 100 times from 2000 to 2017. In the past three years, annual Chinese direct investment into Africa was about 3 billion dollars on average. By the end of 2017, China’s investments of all kinds into Africa totaled 100 billion dollars, covering almost every country on the continent” (Li Xia – ‘Facts & Figures: China-Africa ties: cooperation for shared future’ 02.09.2018 link: http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-09/02/c_137438845.htm).

Chinese Loans:

From 2000 to 2017, the Chinese government, banks and contractors extended US $136 billion in loans to African governments and their state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Angola is the top recipient of Chinese loans, with $42.2 billion disbursed over 17 years. Chinese loan finance is varied. Some government loans qualify as “official development aid.” But other Chinese loans are export credits, suppliers’ credits, or commercial, not concessional in nature. China is not Africa’s largest “donor”” (China Africa Research Initiative – ‘DATA: CHINESE LOANS TO AFRICA’ Version 1.1 August 2018).

They might try to conceal the reality, just like make-up is used on the face to fade the age or even marks that shows stress or pimples. However, the Chinese cannot be able to lie about their intent. They would not offer these sums of cash, without expecting a turnover or even profits. The Chinese wouldn’t allow all these billions of US Dollars spent on these nations to be spoiled and lost on the streets of Lome, Harare, Addis Ababa or Nairobi. They anticipate a return on the loans, either straight cash or getting pieces of the built infrastructure to advance the value of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

That the Heads of State in Africa should be concerned as they are getting in debt traps, instead of being in cycle of positive growth, they are getting new loans to pay the old ones. They are using the same creditor to secure new loans on top of the old-debt. That is how it will continue, until a point where they cannot pay the defaulted debt and the Chinese would then come to snatch something of value to recoup the failing debt. Because they don’t want to write-off the big money without having anything in return. That is what the Chinese has done in Sri Lanka and might start elsewhere. There might be soon more control of port in Djibouti or railroad of Kenya, even the Ethiopia-Djibouti railway line too. As they want their value of money.

They might be all smiles and photo-ops in Beijing these days, the smiles and added loans to dozens of countries. The added “investments” and deals struck, but the Chinese will not do so without getting something in return. To think otherwise, is to be naive and think they don’t have an agenda by doing it.

There is nothing like a free-lunch and the people will learn that, the Heads of State will not directly pay the debt, but the states will do so. Maybe not in this decade or next 5 years, but sooner or later. The bill for the coffee and biscuit will come. Than it is all eaten, but tab still has to be cleared. Peace.

Is the Filipino getting into a debt-trap with China like Sri Lanka and Tonga?

If you owe your bank a hundred pounds, you have a problem. But if you owe a million, it has.”John Maynard Keynes

There are worries about the rising levels of debt the Philippines has to China. That should worry all Filipino. Since, this will be repaid, even as the infrastructure projects under the President is served now. The time for repaying these debts will come. This might be the next one after President Rodrigo Roa Duterte might have to answer for that. But he should be worry himself of the levels he is putting the Republic in, unless he wants important parts of the infrastructure be “given” to the Chinese as a way of repaying the debt like Sri Lanka did.

The conclusion of an agreement with China to manage the Hambantota port was seen as inevitable after the government buckled under Chinese pressure when the China Communication and Construction Co Ltd, which was building the port city, demanded USD 143 million as compensation for the stalling of the work. The Sri Lankan government was also compelled to renegotiate the Colombo Port city project last year, which had been suspended due to criticism about the Chinese ownership of 20 hectares of freehold land as well as controversy over the project’s possible negative environmental impact” (Smruti S. Pattanaik – ‘New Hambantota Port Deal: China Consolidates its Stakes in Sri Lanka’ 17.08.2017).

This story should be worrying for the Philippines as the rising debt to China will come to roost one day. Duterte has accepted and taken it for his projects, but will it be sustainable. That is something he himself should ask himself and also if they can repay this debt without paying a high price.

Jovito Jose P. Katigbak reported in June 2018 this: “Another issue worth noting is debt sustainability. There are concerns that borrowing heavily from China will lead the country into a debt trap. A 2017 Forbes article contends that the Philippine government debt could swell up to USD 452 billion by 2027, which translates to a debt-to-GDP ratio of 197 percent. The estimated figure is based on an annual 10 percent interest rate on loans levied by the Chinese government, hence tying the Philippines into a “virtual debt bondage”” (CIRSS Commentaries – ‘BRIDGING THE INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT GAP THROUGH FOREIGN AID: A BRIEFER ON CHINESE ODA’ June 2018).

If the Filipino doesn’t get to worried about the amount they are borrowing from China. It isn’t only Sri Lanka who has eaten over more debt than they can swallow and has to repay with other means. There are worry in the Pacific island of Tonga.

As reported from Tonga: “Chinese aid in the Pacific region has increased dramatically in recent years and the country has become the region’s second-largest donor. Tonga’s debt to China has been estimated to be more than $100m by Australia’s Lowy Institute think-tank. The prime minister told local media last week that countries would get together to ask the Chinese government to “forgive their debts”. “To me, that is the only way we can all move forward, if we just can’t pay off our debts,” he added. Beijing has refused to write off loans in the past but has given Tonga an amnesty on repayments” (Simone Rench – ‘Tonga premier to ask China to ‘forgive’ Pacific debts’ 21.08.2018 link: https://www.publicfinanceinternational.org/news/2018/08/tonga-premier-ask-china-forgive-pacific-debts).

We have seen what the Chinese done to the Sri Lankan and Tongan counterparts. Both of instances could be happening to the Philippines. Not that you wish that, but the repayments of the growing debt will happen at one point. Even if there is long grace-period of lower rates on the interests as promised to Manila. You can wonder when the Beijing want to recoup the funds and the debt.

Right now, Duterte has a good relationship with Beijing, but when do they feel they have invested enough in the Build! Build! Build! (BBB) projects and wants profits and returns on the investments?

Because the Chinese will not do this forever. They might act nice at first and investing in infrastructure projects as a part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), but when time goes by and lack of repayment hits the fan. The familiar faces of Beijing will get their value for the money and the sovereignty will be taken away. As a port, a piece of mines or exploration of some sort of industrial output will go directly to Beijing and a state owned company. Since they will get their repayment for all the offered debt to the nation.

That is what Duterte is risking, if it is oil exploration and extraction, mineral resources or even ports that is vital to the business done in the Philippines. Does he wants to risk that for the signature building of the BBB?

Peace.

Philippines: PCOO issues memorandum telling employees to be mindful of what they post on social media (13.08.2018)

Dambisa Moyo on democracy, China’s economic model and foreign aid (03.08.2018)

On reforming democracy, the international economist argued that citizens should have to take a test in order to vote.

DOHA, QATAR, August 3, 2018 – The bestselling author goes Head to Head with Mehdi Hasan at the Oxford Union:

  • Argues that it is “mad, it’s crazy” not to see major problems in Western democracy today, asserting that today’s rise in populism; “has its roots in economics.”
  • Says short-sighted policies coming from the West have created “more impoverished people” around the world and “fed into issues of political instability.”
  • Asked if Goldman Sachs had a role for the 2008 financial crisis, asserts that her former employer had “no special responsibility” for what took place.
  • On reforming democracy, proposes that all citizens should take a test to ensure a “good knowledge of what exactly they are voting on.”
  • Whilst discussing aid in Africa, Moyo asserts that aid is a “corrosive force” to African democracy because countries cannot hold their governments accountable “if actually Oxfam is going to solve the healthcare problem,” or “somebody else is going to solve education.”

In a far-reaching interview with Al Jazeera (AlJazeera.com) English’s Head to Head, Dambisa Moyo argued that there are major problems with Western democracy today.

“The notion that democracy is not a problem is mad, it’s crazy,” Moyo said.

Discussing why she believed liberal democracy was “under siege,” Moyo asserted that today’s populism “has its roots in economics”, describing how “real wages have come down…over the past 30 years, social mobility has declined” and “income inequality has widened.”

She blamed short-termist Western policies, such as farm subsidies in the US and Europe’s Common Agricultural Policy, for locking “out the goods that are produced in places like Africa and South America” which has led to “more impoverished people” and “fed into issues of political instability.”

A former Goldman Sachs banker, Moyo was asked whether the company had a particular role for the 2008 financial crisis, she said that it had “no special responsibility” for what took place and that “we all have to take responsibility”.

Goldman Sachs agreed to pay $5.1bn in fines in January 2016, following an investigation by the US Department of Justice for its role in the crisis.

On reforming democracy, the international economist argued that citizens should have to take a test in order to vote and that people must have a “good knowledge of what exactly we’re voting on” before being allowed to vote.

When she remarked how voter participation was at all-time low, presenter Mehdi Hasan responded by asking “so the idea is then you make it harder for them to vote by putting a test in front of them?”

In her new book; Edge of Chaos, Why Democracy is Failing to Deliver Economic Growth – and how to fix it, Dr Moyo proposes a system of weighted voting where some individuals have more voting power than others.

When defending her proposal, which presenter Mehdi Hasan suggested was elitist and would actually “help populism”, Moyo asserted that her idea was “based on participation, not on education” and that a degree of weighted voting already existed around the world.

Speaking about China and its economic model, Moyo commented how “over 300 million people have been moved out of poverty in 30 years” and that the West should be careful not to “point fingers” when commenting on the country’s democratic record which was on its own particular “path”.

Addressing a question on the benefits of China’s economic model, Moyo noted how Chinese politicians “don’t need to seduce today’s voter in order to remain in political office” in comparison to the US, where there is a “mismatch between long-term economic challenges and short-termism in the political system.”

Economist Dambisa Moyo first made waves with her book Dead Aid, which argued that rather than alleviating poverty in Africa, aid was actually preserving it. Asked whether she believed aid had had any beneficial effects, the economist described its “corrosive nature” on “democracy on the African continent.”

“We do want to be able to hold our governments accountable but we can’t do that if actually Oxfam is going to solve the health care problem, somebody else is going to solve education, how are we able to hold our governments accountable from a public policy stance if they are not the ones who are delivering these outcomes?”

The best-selling author argued that whilst she accepted that there have been “significant wins” across Africa, “the notion that those are because of aid…is wrong.”

Moyo pointed out that China has played a hugely significant role on the continent: “We’ve had China come in, there’s been significant investment…we’re able to trade with the Chinese, for better or for worse.”

Mehdi Hasan was joined in the discussion by a panel of experts: Ann Pettifor, economist and Author of The Production of Money; Jason Hickel, anthropologist at the University of London and author of The Divide: A brief Guide to global inequality and its solutions; and Jamie Whyte, research director at the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA).

The interview is part of a brand new series of Head to Head, Mehdi Hasan’s hard-hitting discussion show on Al Jazeera English. Other guests were former Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon, former Trump campaign National Security Director J.D. Gordon, and feminist Germaine Greer.

Is it time to rethink Democracy? with Dambisa Moyo will be broadcast on Friday August 3rd at 20:00 GMT, and will be repeated on August 4th at 12.00 GMT, August 5th at 01.00 GMT and August 6th at 06.00 GMT.

Malacañang: Do you lack talent? When the PCOO need Mocha Uson for the Federalism campaign?

I’m just doing my job, even though we encounter critics — but if I need to make certain changes, I’ll do it.” – Mocha Uson

If you would think the Rodrigo Duterte administration ever would sway away from controversy, they have to continue to find ways to do so. Now, they are working and have worked on a new constitution that introduce federalism. This piece will not be about that, but about someone they plan to tap into promotion of that cause. That is Duterte using a Presidential Communications Operations Office (PCOO) Assistant Secretary Margaux Mocha Uson to be a spokesperson for it, but how and what?

Does Uson even have the basic knowledge of what Federalism means compared to the democratic republic today and the constitutional democracy it is today, which simple definition is: “DEMOCRACY is a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. Constitutional democracy can be defined as a system of government in which there are clear limits of political authorities, and the electorate has the power to remove poor performing governments. Constitutional democracy is the type of democracy where powers of the majority are exercised within a frame work of the constitution designed to guarantee the majority right” (School Mattazz – ‘CONSTITUTIONAL DEMOCRACY: MEANING, TYPES AND CHARACTERISTICS’).

While what she will promote is this: “Legal Definition of federalism: distribution of power in a federation between the central authority and the constituent units (as states) involving especially the allocation of significant lawmaking powers to those constituent units” (Merriam-Webster – Federalism, 21,07.2018 link: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/federalism).

I have a feeling the Assistant Secretary would have a hard time explaining the difference, only speaking the points that the administration delivers her. Her past is no good either, so I don’t understand how she will be speaking on behalf of the administration in this complex case and with the changes of the possible constitution.

Using Uson to campaign for federalism:

Concom spokesman Ding Generoso told The STAR that Uson would be a big help in their campaign to promote federalism and for their proposed Constitution through her social media following. “I really wanted to tap her. If she can write and interview the Concom members about the proposed constitution and federalism, that would be a big help for our campaign,” Generoso said. “We will talk to her and see how she can help,” he added. Comparing his appearances on television interviews with that of Uson’s blog, Generoso said that he is getting fewer views than Uson, whose videos are reaching millions of netizens” (Robertzon Ramirez – ‘Concom to tap Mocha for pro-federalism campaign’ 29.07.2018, link:https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/07/29/1837706/concom-tap-mocha-pro-federalism-campaign#cey37RrlmvLZw56Q.99

Senate Defense of Appointment:

For one, I hope that she will be a purveyor of truth, rather than propaganda; of responsibly gathered and vetted facts and news, rather than so-called “alternative facts” and fake news. She is no longer just a private blogger or social media personality; she is now a civil servant. For another, it matters, not just what she says, but also how she delivers it. I implore her to be more circumspect about her choice of words and way of saying them. I do not mean that she ought to use sophisticated words. In fact, I do encourage her to speak plainly. Plain but cleanly. Be aware that our children are listening to us. Our future generations are taking their cue from us on how to express and carry themselves. I hope that Ms. Uson will prove herself a model of dignity – the dignity of a woman, a public servant – for our people, especially the youth of today” (On the appointment of Mocha Uson as Asec. of the PCOO, Dispatch from Crame No. 85, 16.05.2017, link: http://www.senate.gov.ph/press_release/2017/0516_delima4.asp).

PCOO allowed Uson to work in Casino, countering the law of public official:

PCOO Secretary Martin Andanar said in a statement that “Mocha asked permission to honor her entertainment contracts when she joined government.” However, while Uson is not prohibited from performing, Andanar added that she is advised to avoid such places. This comes after videos circulated on social media allegedly showing Uson performing with her girl group “Mocha Girls” at Bar 60 located at the ground floor of Resorts World Manila. Uson supposedly also has gigs at places like Punchline Comedy Bar and Cowboy Grill, aside from Resorts World Manila. Meanwhile, Resorts World Manila management said in a statement that it asks those who performs to comply with all government regulations. Memorandum Circular Number 6 states that “the mere entry or presence of government officials and employees in a gambling casino shall be considered as conduct prejudicial to the best interest of the service, unless the same was in the performance of official duties and functions.” (Reporter.ph – ‘PCOO probes the issue of Mocha Uson’s performance at a casino hotel’ 08.09.2017, link: http://reporter.ph/pcoo-probes-the-issue-of-mocha-usons-performance-at-a-casino-hotel/).

PCOO disown Uson’s blog:

PRESIDENTIAL Communications Operations Office Secretary Martin Andanar said Wednesday Assistant Secretary Mocha Uson’s blog was not an official page of the PCOO and was not representing government views. He cleared the PCOO from the controversies involving Uson’s weird and comical blogs. But he said Uson was not a source of fake news in the country as she was only expressing her views. He said the PCOO could not influence or control Uson since she was engaged in a personal activity. Should he order bloggers like Uson to stop airing their views, he would be accused of “suppressing freedom of expression.” He said when Uson became part of the PCOO, “I told her that all the news coming out from government media platforms are real news.” (Vito Barcelo – ‘PCOO disowns Mocha’s blogs’ 01.02.2018 link: http://thestandard.com.ph/news/top-stories/257655/pcoo-disowns-mocha-s-blogs.html).

Therefore, with all this mess of hers, the administration are still keeping her on board. That is just weird, because she is not that bright and misuse her public space. Not to inform, but keeping herself popular. That is evident, even as an appointed public official, she keeps peddling questionable articles, also even break codes of conduct like performing in a casino last year. That is why it is weird that she still has a place in the Presidential Communications Operations Office (PCOO) of the Duterte Administration.

That is just strange, for me awful idea to put her into the campaign, unless the Duterte Administration are going for squad goals and making sure they make scandalous headlines by her and her words? Is that what they need to be able to get the Constitutional Change or the Federalism enacted?

Do they need Mocha Uson, is she that unique and special that the President needs her skills and ability to create controversy to bring the game, set and go? Seriously? Is the change to federalism that lack-luster, that the Presidency see the need to bring her in? Is there nobody else that can campaign and bring the message out, not even demoted Alvarez?

Because we know she is not that wise, she has moved mountains and a volcano in the past. If she cannot even the basic geography of the Philippines, how can she explain and have the ability to grasp the difference between a constitutional democracy and federalism?

I have lack of faith, if she was like Maine Mendoza selling MAC products, I would get that, but she is trying to be spokesperson for a government, which plans to change of how the government works. That is not an easy task for anyone, but for someone like her. I lack faith, trust and ability to pull it off. Unless, she will push empty slogans and try to gain popularity because of her face. When it comes to a question like this, when it comes to the balances of power, the limits of the citizenship and what matters for all the branches of government, these questions are not a quick fix. However, a big question and need a lot of relief, this isn’t something changed in a day.

If the Duterte administration is serious and want people to believe in the change, maybe, just maybe, pull some better cards out of the stack. There got to be someone else with more craft and capacity to bring the message of federalism, than Uson. Peace.

“‘Hello Garci’?” Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo [New Speaker of the House]

The love of money is corrosive. And sadly, the desire to make the easy kind by being imaginative and manipulative, corrupts absolutely. Stolen wealth does not make the thief respectable. Neither will the trappings of wealth mask [nor] cap the stink that thievery exudes. One day, justice will catch up with those who steal government funds. And when that day comes, it will be the public who will have its retribution” Rodrigo Duterte extract from the State of the Union 2018 (23.07.2018).

Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo is lucky that she is out of prison and not serving more time for the scandals she has had in the past. The way power has evolved her and consumed her. So, that she got elevated to Speaker of the House yesterday before the State of the Union 2018. That is why I have to use an extract from the current President Rodrigo Duterte, who claims to fight corruption, but still have to keep her around. Even after all her scandals and public misuse of trust. She is the epitome of what Duterte are about to fight, unless it is just empty words.

I will show a few fragments of the “Hello Garci” Scandal, as that is the worst one, where she used the post-election time to rig the election in her favor. This was done with manipulated results from Mindanao by COMELEC Officials that she had appointed in the months before the election. That was deliberate activity to keep herself in power and get another term in office. There other scandals she has been a part of, but rigging yourself into power and misuse that trust should never be forgiven. As how can anyone trust her now?

These are just a few reports, who can wonder if she rigged herself into becoming the Speaker of the House yesterday to take the position from Pantaleon Alvarez. Duterte should remember what she has done and should impeach her, if he is legit about fighting corrupt people. As the Arroyo administration isn’t what he should be associated with. That is is if he wants to end in another light than her.

First comes an old report from COSCA, which states what PCAD reported about the elections, before a year later, what the Philippines Center for Investigative Journalism wrote in 2005 and what Ager wrote in Philippine Daily Inquirer in 2011. All of which explains different part of the scandal and shows the extent that Arroyo went too, to get a second term.

According to members of the People’s Congress of Authentic Democracy (PCAD), our nation is in deep crisis because of the credibility of the electoral process has been totally undermined by the ease with which the Arroyo administration has used the whole bureaucracy and state resources to perpetuate itself in power” (Gregorio L. Quitangon – ‘RP in the midst of political and Economical Crisis’ September 2004, COSCA – Palaso Volume 1 Issue 5).

““He set up the infrastructure for cheating,” says Sen. Aquilino Pimentel, who has heard the “Garci” recording and who led the opposition protest against alleged vote rigging in the 2004 elections. “He was the operator for Gloria. He knew how the cheating was done in Mindanao and he manipulated the vote so GMA’s lead would not be less than one million.” In an interview with journalists on June 7, just days before his mysterious disappearance, Garcillano denied all these allegations and insisted it was not his voice on the tape. But several Comelec officials interviewed by the PCIJ as well as former Comelec chair Christian Monsod confirm it is indeed Garcillano’s voice that is in the recording” (…) “The wiretapped recordings, which start on May 17, 2004, a week after elections, and end on June 18, give little indication of Garcillano’s role during the election campaign and the actual voting. It is, however, a treasure trove for uncovering the postelection manipulation of the results. It is apparent from the conversations that Garcillano was the orchestrator, the conductor of a symphony of fraud, at least for Mindanao” (Sheila S. Coronel – ‘Master Operator’ 02.07.2005, Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism)

Nagamura Moner told the Senate committee that he paid the election officers in some areas in Mindanao to change the results in favor of Arroyo. “What was the money for?” asked Senate President Juan Ponce-Enrile. “It was to pay the election officers…because at that time, the results of the counting showed that (Fernando Poe Jr) was winning by landslide,” Moner said. “You were bribing election officers?” Enrile asked again. “Yes your honor although I have not met them,” Moner said. Moner said a total of 400,000 pesos (US$9,300) was spent in Tawi-Tawi and 500,000 pesos ($12,000) in Sulu to change the results of the elections in these areas. Moner said he was tapped by then Philippine Ports Authority general manager Alfonso Cusi for the operation because his brother -in -law, Efren Bollozos, was working as manager of the PPA” (Maila Ager, Philippine Daily Inquirer, September 13, 2011).

She might won the case: [P.E.T. CASE No. 002. March 29, 2005] RONALD ALLAN POE a.k.a. FERNANDO POE, JR., protestant, vs. GLORIA MACAPAGAL-ARROYO, as the resolution claimed that Poe Jr. and Party hadn’t enough merit to claim rigging or election fraud. However, with the “Hello Garci” tapes have proven, what people knew and why the results from Mindanao took so long time to be verified. As the results was doctored to favor Arroyo’s administration. Therefore, she is not a righteous leader. Even if she has been released in 2016 after a few years in prison. She still, will be remembered for the cheating to stay in power. That is why it is weird to get her as Speaker in this time and day. People should never forget what she did and what she has done.

It isn’t like this story will end. Because this history will follow her. Arroyo will be remembered for her ways and what she has done in the past as a politician. It is not like the tally hasn’t changed.

When you as corrupt as you are known for stealing elections, you should be shunned from roles so high to power as the speaker. Arroyo shouldn’t be this high up, she should been under investigation or even barred from entering the premises of the august house. That is if there is justice in this world and someone aren’t more entitled than others.

Arroyo or GMA should have not fought for this position. Hopefully all her old sins gets into the public. Not only “Hello Garci”, but all the rest of them, also the victims of her extra-judicial killings in the early start of the millennium, that Human Rights Watch has written about back-in-the-day. All of this should pop-up in the atmosphere and she should answer for that. Not guide the August House. She got nothing to do there, except for entitlement. Peace.

Opinion: Hope Kagame learns from Sri Lanka!

As conning as President Paul Kagame are, he will never outsmart the Chinese in their loans and agreements, especially when concerning their moneys and the planned extension of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Before I show the naive relations that Kagame has with Xi Jinping on the visit. I will first show the statements made by Kagame as he is signing agreements and loans. Kagame is really risking natural resources and the infrastructure projects that the Chinese are supporting. If there is any default on loans or problematic to pay back. The Rwandan state will repay with the resources in the soil or within bound of the structures put in place. Therefore, Kagame shouldn’t think of himself as an equal with China, he should think of it as a borrower and find ways to secure repayments.

I also want to say a few words from the heart. The growing relationship with China is based as much on mutual respect as on mutual interests. That is evident in your personal commitment to our continent, Mr. President” (…) “More generally, China relates to Africa as an equal. We see ourselves as a people on the road to prosperity. China’s actions demonstrate, that you see us in the same way. This is a revolutionary posture in world affairs, and it is more precious than money” Kagame stressed” (Abdur Rahman Alfa Shaban – ‘’China relates to Africa as an equal’ – Paul Kagame’ 23.07.2018 – Africa News).

When you see this, you wonder if the Rwandan President is naive or if he thinking that the Sri Lankan experiment of high loans and bad repayments cannot hit Kigali, like it hit Colombo. Not that I want this to happen to any state. I am as worried about this in Uganda and Kenya, as the loans to for instance Madaraka express, Karuma Hydroelectric Power project and Kampala-Entebbe Expressway. This has to be repaid to the Chinese at some point and with interest.

Kagame is foolish, if he thinks the Chinese will not expect a return on their investment, that is what they do.

Here what happen with the Chinese loans in Sri Lanka:

Some Sri Lankan economists had privately told me in 2011 that their country will find it difficult to repay the massive loan of USD 8 billion at an interest rate of more than six per cent taken from China for modernising the Hambantota port and that it may ultimately have to convert these loans into equity. That warning came true on July 29, 2017 when Sri Lanka and China signed the Hambantota Port Concession Agreement. Soon after the Agreement was signed, China declared that the Hambantota port is a part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). According to the agreement, China will pay USD 1.12 billion upfront in a debt-equity swap in the ratio of 70:30 approximately, with the China Merchant Port Holdings Company (CMPort) getting 69.55 per cent of the shares and the Sri Lanka Ports Authority (SLPA), a public sector organization, holding the remainder 30.45 per cent. After 10 years, SLPA can buy another 20 per cent of the shares, making the two companies equal partners” (…) “The conclusion of an agreement with China to manage the Hambantota port was seen as inevitable after the government buckled under Chinese pressure when the China Communication and Construction Co Ltd, which was building the port city, demanded USD 143 million as compensation for the stalling of the work. The Sri Lankan government was also compelled to renegotiate the Colombo Port city project last year, which had been suspended due to criticism about the Chinese ownership of 20 hectares of freehold land as well as controversy over the project’s possible negative environmental impact” (Smruti S. Pattanaik – ‘New Hambantota Port Deal: China Consolidates its Stakes in Sri Lanka’ 17.08.2017).

So if the Rwandan take the grants and loans for granted, they might be forced by the financial pressure from Beijing to give away either infrastructure or even make concession of some other vital resources. Because the Chinese expect some value for their money, they are not doing this for charity, but for development of themselves. Therefore, Kagame is not an equal and will not be an equal. I wish that was a serious thing, but the way the Chinese play these agreements. They are not playing around and doling out money for the hell of neither. Neither does anyone else, that is why usually with Western Aid the state expect bought from same source imports and also with strains of governance to get the funds. So, the Chinese does it their way. That is respected, however, the worry is what the aftermath is the for the ones that swallowed to much debt and cannot repay.

Will that happen to Rwanda?

Kagame shouldn’t see himself as an equal, but wonder how he does fit as a piece of the puzzle in the BRI project of the Chinese and how he can pay back with interests. Because that is the next step. The should also worry the neighbors who has borrowed heavily as well from the same They should all be careful and wonder what would happen. This is isn’t only for Kagame, but he was today speaking a bit to friendly to the Chinese.

As if he haven’t gotten the news of what happen in Sri Lanka and for everyone else, that should be warning. Peace.

SONA 2018: Another promise to end the Telecom duopoly, but when?

There is again promise of ending the reign of Globe and Smart in the Telecom business. Theis has been a steady process. Before today’s announcement at the State of the Nation address in Parliament, the Duterte Administration offered the same promise last year, and the Duterte administration has proposed this before. Therefore, this isn’t new, but more about when and who want into the business. First, read the passage of today’s speech concerning the industry, second, seeing the ancient ordeal between the duopoly and third, the DICT proposed third company into the market.

“My administration remains firm in its resolve to ensure that the country’s telecommunications services are reliable, inexpensive and secure. A draft Terms of Reference for the entry of a new, major industry player is at hand. The terms will be fair, reasonable and comprehensive. It will be inclusive so it will be open to all interested private parties, both foreign and local. The only condition is that the chosen entity must provide the best possible services at reasonably accessible prices. However, our efforts to usher in a new major player shall be rendered futile if we do not improve its odds of success in an industry that has long been dominated by a well-entrenched duopoly. We shall, therefore, lower interconnection rates between all industry players. Not only to lessen the cost to the consumers as it will also lower the costs [for the] incoming player to access existing networks, [thereby creating] a market environment that is more conducive to competition. This is a policy which is crucial to ensure that our solution to our telecommunication problems will be both meaningful and lasting. In the last 2 years, experience has taught me that lack of consultation or insufficiency of information can, at times, lead to rash judgments. If and when I am unsure on the most appropriate course of action to take given the problem, it’s factual milieu and the desired end, I never fail to consult to discuss options with persons whom I trust and whose advise I value” (Rodrigo Duterte SONA 2018, 23.07.2018).

Globe Telecom, Inc. was registered in the Securities and Exchange Commission in 1935. It claims to provide mobile and broadband services to 55 million people. The owners of Globe include foreign company Singapore Telecom (SingTel) and Ayala Corporation, with Jaime Zobel de Ayala as the company’s chairman. Smart, meanwhile, is wholly owned by Manuel V. Pangilinan’s Philippine Long Distance Telecommunication (PLDT) Company. It claims more than 68.9 million cellular and broadband subscribers. In his book Colossal Deception, How Foreigners Control our Telecom Sector, journalist Rigoberto D. Tiglao said the biggest controlling stockholder in PLDT is actually Indonesian mogul Anthoni Salim through his HongKong-based company First Pacific, where MVP sits as managing director and chief executive officer” (Reporters Without Borders – ‘PCC scrutinizes Globe, PLDT deal’, 2016).

“As previously reported by CommsUpdate, earlier this month Eliseo Rio, Jr said that the naming of the much anticipated ‘New Major Player’ (NMP) could take place by the end of September or early October this year, barring unforeseen setbacks. DICT published its draft terms of reference (TOR) for the selection of the NMP to challenge dominant players PLDT and Globe Telecom on 26 June. The selection process has been delayed for months – an original March 2018 deadline proved unrealistic – but DICT has now released details on how it plans to assign valuable 3G, 4G and potential 5G mobile frequencies to allow a newcomer to challenge the status quo. Pursuant to the above, DICT held public consultations on 6 July – a process that seemingly concluded that of those that expressed an interest in the selection process, 75% prefer a points-based allocation system, using the HCLoS method. Only 8% of potential bidders preferred the second set of draft rules which entailed auctioning the frequencies with a minimum bid of PHP36.58 billion (USD583.4 million)” (Telegeography – ‘DICT official throws support behind HCLoS to select third telco’ 17.07.2018).

It seems like the Administration is struggling to find someone who will find it profitable and even possible to breach the duopoly at this point. As the Smart and Globe owns the market and shares, they have the infrastructure and the means to control it. Therefore, they are nearly holding the same shares of the market and also the profits from the segments. Surely, many has both, as the black-outs and other forces them to have second sim-cards to secure their communications themselves.

Especially also with the strict ownership rules and regulations in the Philippines, plus the strength that Globe and Smart have, it will be tricky to gain profits at first. There are reports of China Telecom, ZTE from China and also Korean PT&T. But nothing of that is certain at this point and whoever it might be. Will have a challenge.

This will not just be about having a third competitor into the telecom market, but also coming in as a ugly step-child where two companies are ruling all supreme. Unless, they come with cheap and better services from day one and is able to deliver at a rate the other two cannot. Than, it might have a fix, if not it might be a risky investment and sold quickly to either of these. Peace.

Maldives: EU adopts a framework for targeted sanctions (16.07.2018)

On 16 July, the Foreign Affairs Council adopted a framework for targeted restrictive measures against persons and entities responsible for undermining the rule of law or obstructing an inclusive political solution in the Maldives as well as persons and entities responsible for serious human rights violations. This decision makes it possible, if the situation does not improve, to impose a travel ban and an asset freeze on relevant individuals and entities.

This decision is a direct follow up to the Foreign Affairs Council conclusions of 26 February 2018 on the Maldives. The Council considered that the situation was not in accordance with the principles of democratic rule and separation of powers, and indicated it may consider targeted measures if the situation did not improve.

In its conclusions, the Council called on the government of the Maldives to engage with the leaders of the opposition in a genuine dialogue that paves the way for credible, transparent and inclusive Presidential elections.

NDF of the Philippines: Duterte-Lorenzana Notion of Localized Peace talks is totally absurd and stupid for Five Major Reasons (16.07.2018)