Opinion: Museveni – “China might be a problem in the future” – it will be if you default on your debt

Africa has been having problems for the last 600 years due to the slave trade, colonialism, neocolonialism — and none of it was from China” (…) not seen any serious problem, because their approach is different” (…) “They do not impose their offers if you do not want them, so we have not seen a problem for now. Maybe a problem in the future, but not now” – President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni (Sinan Tavsan – ‘Uganda leader says China-style diplomacy ‘better than’ the West’s’ 17.03.2022, Asia Nikkei).

President Museveni had an exclusive interview with a journalist from Asia Nikkei and it was published today. These few quotes are from there and it is striking. The former donor darling of the West. The President who has pandered to the interests of the United States and their allies for ages. Who has eaten of the buffet of aid, grants and all sorts of prepositions, which has given him a larger than life persona.

That man is now blaming the West for if all. He is right in going after the colonial past of the West and the neocolonial structures, which are hampering development and continues the cycle of rich versus poor. This is justified, but he also shows a little nativity in concern to China.

It is just like he don’t think the monies, the funds and the China Exim Bank, which works like this:

The China Exim Bank is increasingly making use of a deal structure – known as the “Angola mode” or “resources for infrastructure” – whereby repayment of the loan for infrastructure development is made in terms of natural resources (for example, oil). While this approach is by no means novel or unique, and follows a long history of natural resource – based transactions in the oil industry – China has taken its implementation to a higher level. By providing preferred lines of credit to Chinese state-owned enterprises and foreign governments wishing to purchase Chinese made goods, the China Exim Bank supports the overseas expansion of Chinese firms in line with the country’s “Go Global” strategy, whose long-run goal is to increase the productivity and competitiveness of these enterprises vis-à-vis their global competitors. The arrangement is used for countries that cannot provide adequate financial guarantees to back their loan commitments and allows them to package natural resource exploitation and infrastructure development” (Institute of Developing Economies – Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) – ‘China in Africa’ October 2009).

What Museveni is not saying is what the costs of the debt and the structure of the Chinese support to Uganda or anywhere else. It is like Museveni haven’t seen what has happened when Republics or Nations defaults or fail to pay on the debts. Since, the Chinese Banks or Funds are coming with strings, which isn’t always public. That’s why we have seen what has happened to Sri Lanka and Tonga, which both has to give up key infrastructure to be licensed. The same has been told to happen Zambia and there are already fear of what could happen to Entebbe International Airport.

President Museveni should consider all of this, as it is next generation that will cover the debt he has been accumulated during his reign. There will be more than the Toll Road on the Entebbe Express-way to secure revenue for the added debt. It is like Museveni isn’t concerned about this and the threshold for repayments are coming closer. Therefore, at one point or another… if there is lacking domestic revenue… the Chinese companies or China can cease or capture collateral.

So, Museveni is right… China could become a problem. Especially, for all the nations who has eaten loans for the infrastructure projects in the Belt Road Initiative (BRI), which will pass the grace period and the debt of these has to be repaid. It wasn’t free money to build roads, buildings or rail-roads. No, it was an investment, which the Chinese plans to get profits out of. They didn’t give away this money. The first loaned the money, got a Chinese developer and Chinese Engineering company to build it and now later the debtor has to repay it with interests.

That is the brutal truth… I am not saying the loans are a problem, but they could easily become it. Especially, if the debtor doesn’t pay on time or in a fashion, which the creditor accepts. If they defaults or fails to repay. This gives the creditor leverage and possible freedoms or liberties to ensure collateral. Therefore, it could easily become a huge problem…

Museveni should also study how this happened to others. As sooner or later, this could happen in Uganda or anywhere else in Africa. The Chinese is right in doing this. The debtors signed the agreements and the stipulations on the loans are giving it legal binding rights to get it repaid. That is why … they might not use colonial techniques to get resources, ownership or have influence. They just borrowed money and with that has the upper-hand of their poorer states. It is a wise move, because the Chinese knows greed is an easy way of corrupting minds and get them into the fold. The same ways happens here. They don’t come with guns or war, but they are financially binding, which can easily be triggered.

In this instance, Museveni is partly outsmarted. Both are getting their interests nurtured, but at one point he could easily get into real trouble. It would be a huge problem and the state has to find currency or liquidity to actually cough up funds to pay on old loans. This is on the horizon and evidently, people are speaking to soft-heartedly about it. Peace.

Opinion: Bong Bong Marcos cannot even be sincere about the attendance at the Las Piñas rally

Only about 18,000 attended the rally, according to an official statement by the Chief of Police of the PNP Las Piñas” (Rappler, 15.03.2022).

This is the issue of coming out with a statement and saying 500,000 people showed up to your event. Which seems sort of impossible in Las Piñas. As the population statistic for the city is about 590,000. In addition the tent of the venue was built for 5,000 and the estimates around it was triple. Meaning in total with this calculation… the rally would be around 20,000.

20,000 people to any rally isn’t bad for the UniTeam or the BBM-Sarah campaign. I find it really puzzling to have a tent, which fits a crowd of 5,000 and suddenly amass 500k. That is some biblical shit and sort of miracle that only Jesus Christ could pull off. As he could feed 5,000 with five loaves of bread and two fish. It sounds like the same sort of thing to me.

That Bong Bong Marcos wants to look majestic makes all sorts of sense. Especially, since he doesn’t have the character or spine to show up at debates. He needs to boost his ego and look more successful than he really is.

What is striking is that Inday Sara is willing to join the ride and not refute the lies. This is not how integrity or reality looks like. It is like BBM wanted to look like the whole city was at his rally and nothing else to do. They had to show up and feel the “love in the air”. God knows really, but this is just disgusting.

It shouldn’t be this hard. However, that shows the character of the UniTeam and BBM. They are willing to lie about attendance and boost their numbers too ridiculous levels. In such a fashion, I have to use a story from the bible to show how dumb it is.

He has made the 5 loaves of bread and 2 fishes turned into a feast for 5,000 people. That’s the miracle of Las Piñas. BBM claimed in Press Release “hundred of thousands join UniTeam caravan” and 500,000 attended the really. Today, the PNP has refuted that and it’s evident it wasn’t possible.

This is why the BBM UniTeam shouldn’t boost their ego too fast. It is only looking stupid and really fast. When the old man cannot stomach questions on an open mic and people are supposed to believe his statements. Clearly, he wants to manufacture his own hype. Where he is fixated on astronomical numbers and glorifying presence. However, that is not the reality we live in.

Yes, there are pictures of plenty of people in one street around the caravan of BBM. Nevertheless, it is impossible to believe that 100,000 would be fitting on one street and around the vehicles of the campaign team. Which everyone knows and when they are lying about the tent and the crowds there. How can we trust the massive outreach of the presence around the convoy?

I am not saying that people didn’t show up, but it wasn’t like 90% of the population in the area was inside that tent or 50% of the population was on the streets hugging the limelight of Bong Bong Marcos that day. There was a rally with thousands attending and there was thousands of people in the streets. However, a 100k or more seems insincere and easily debunked lie.

BBM needs to be legit and speak within bounds of reality. The fiction and the lies aren’t it. He can speak non-fiction and sell stories. Nevertheless, we will not allow buffoonery. Peace.

Opinion: Marcos Jr. Versus Robredo

The main candidates in this up-coming Presidential Election in the Philippines will be between Ferdinand “Bong Bong” Marcos Jr. and current Vice-President Leni Robredo. That is the gist of it. The last few days are proving it even more. As they battling over having the most prominent endorsements of Bulacan. Just to prove to the public that they have the public behind it.

However, there are two very significant difference between these two candidates. Not only is Marcos Junior the son of the late dictator. He is also very lacking in achievements as a representative in higher office. The BBM team and the machinery behind wants to sell it all like hot-cakes. Nevertheless, that is still not the whole truth.

Yes, on the recent Pulse Asia poll he has gathered a grand lead on the rest of the candidates. Even if it is so, I would take it with a grand of salt. As the Presidential Candidate in a harsh political climate as the Philippines cannot stomach to participate or be part of Presidential Debates. Marcos Jr. is ditching the second one and that is showing lack of awareness.

Maybe, Marcos hopes that he can live on and thrive on the popularity of the Inday Sarah. As she can live on her political dynasty and her fathers popularity in the general public. That is how things seems, since Marcos only shows up to own rallies and isn’t a part of the conversation nationally like the rest of them.

VP Robredo is getting support of the Churches, Academics and former diplomats. It is not like Robredo is hyper popular as a candidate, but she is more down to earth in comparison to Marcos. She is at least not trying to artificially generate huger crowds and lie about the attendance.

What is striking however… is how BBM and the team trying to make him so magnificent. When he doesn’t have the courage or the balls to attend debates. It is like he knows he doesn’t have the answers or the cognitive ability to articulate his policies or plans ahead. That’s how it looks to me.

Yes, Robredo’s term in office as the VP haven’t been golden. At least she has had the character and tried. She has stood in the storm and been desecrated on a daily basis. Still with that in mind. Leni is still pushing ahead and not looking back. If she had been as soft and mellow as Marcos. Nobody in their right mind would have believed in her candidacy.

The reason why BBM is more strengthened is because of Inday Sarah. They are now a powerful ticket, because she has the dynasty of Duterte behind her. We know also the 7-Eleven “Daily Cupdates” has but him in front. It is still early, just like all the “pink-days” on social media.

We are seeing various of celebrities weighing in and being parts of the rallies. That will make a sudden impact on their fandoms, but will not change the pattern substantially. Unless, they are BTS size of fandoms or Taylor Swift fans. It is a need for a real momentum. Neither candidate has that right now. They are still canvassing and salvaging whatever advantage they can.

The way I see it. BBM should man up and grow a pair of balls. Prove that he has the ability to discuss and come with good arguments for his candidacy. Which none of us has seen. The prepared rallies and team composed speeches will not prove anything. Other than the gentleman can be composed on stage. We would expect more of a President and a Presidential Candidate.

That’s why with the record and the former roles Leni she has more to give right now. She don’t have dynasties or the machinery behind her. Robredo is a weaker candidate, as she doesn’t have the plunder or the ability to pay of a lot the hurdles. However, if it is a battle of character and proven capacity. Robredo is more worthy than Bong Bong by a landslide.

That Marcos Jr. looks good in two polls at this point of time. Shouldn’t stop the other candidates from working and proving their worth. Instead, it should galvanize them and inspire them to prove it even more. As they know BBM cannot or have no courage to be in the ring with the rest. He has to be scripted and in print by friendly media. Not like the others who are daring to be undressed and fall flat in front of the whole nation. Peace.

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