
This week the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is put under pressure. That is happening as the Russian army is under fire and getting hit hard on the front-lines in Ukraine. Russians as the “superpower” of the CSTO and with the losses in Ukraine. Certainly the warfare in Ukraine is weakening not only Russia, but the CSTO itself. That’s why this weeks actions against Member States of CSTO begs to question. Is the CSTO up to it? Or was it a dream turned into a nightmare in Kremlin?
The CSTO has been Moscow controlled and centralized from there to have some sort of military alliance and influence over former Soviet Republics. That’s why the CSTO consist of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan. Former Member States are Azerbaijan, Georgia and Uzbekistan. While Serbia is the only state, which is an observer to the CSTO.
Why I am saying CSTO is in trouble?
Well, the recent skirmishes between Azerbaijan and Armenia is the first push. Where the Azerbaijan has attacked Armenia in contested areas. Which has killed unknown amount of soldiers and used artillery on Armenia soil. The Azerbaijan army has even attacked a Russian FSB van in the border region. So, this here shows how volatile things are.
In addition to the acts and skirmishes between Azerbaijan and Armenia. While the Kyrgyzstan’s border force has attacked the Tajikistan as well. That’s two more conflicts involving the member states of the CSTO.
The Armenian state has already invoked or plans to invoke the article of the pact, which says the other member state has to help them out in a conflict. This means the fellow alliance members has to come to Armenia with military aide.
The question here now will be… has Russia or Belarus any real army capacity to offer? Will, the Russians depleted armies and stretched manpower be able to help Armenia in the hour of need?
There is already talk of the very independent Armenia not helping in the war in Ukraine. That the Russians might be reluctant to help them now. Since, the Russian would have needed support, both equipment and brigades in the war in Ukraine. However, there has only been help and support from Minsk.
Tajikistan has offered equipment and ammunition to the Russians for the war in Ukraine. So, that’s another ball-game.
We will see who Moscow will come to support. This is their alliance and counter-pact to the NATO. So, it has to prove it’s value now, as the members are now hurt and their sovereignty is hit by neighbours, which is what Moscow is doing to Kyiv. However, Moscow can be a hypocrite about that, as long as that fits the interests of Kremlin or His Excellency, Putin.
This will surely be a test for the Russian alliance, the CSTO. That is under fire right now. The border skirmishes and clashes are only showing how the Member States needs support. That Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan is attacking their neighbours. There is certainly a lot at play here.
We just have to see how the Kremlin moves now. They have to show their worth. In the moment and time, when their own forces and armies aren’t in a good place either. As the Ukrainian advances are hitting everywhere. The launched Special Operation in Ukraine is certainly backfiring and we can wonder if they have enough resources to boost their allies of the CSTO. Peace.
















