Opinion: Is the CSTO ready to be tested? [In Armenia or Tajikistan]

This week the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is put under pressure. That is happening as the Russian army is under fire and getting hit hard on the front-lines in Ukraine. Russians as the “superpower” of the CSTO and with the losses in Ukraine. Certainly the warfare in Ukraine is weakening not only Russia, but the CSTO itself. That’s why this weeks actions against Member States of CSTO begs to question. Is the CSTO up to it? Or was it a dream turned into a nightmare in Kremlin?

The CSTO has been Moscow controlled and centralized from there to have some sort of military alliance and influence over former Soviet Republics. That’s why the CSTO consist of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan. Former Member States are Azerbaijan, Georgia and Uzbekistan. While Serbia is the only state, which is an observer to the CSTO.

Why I am saying CSTO is in trouble?

Well, the recent skirmishes between Azerbaijan and Armenia is the first push. Where the Azerbaijan has attacked Armenia in contested areas. Which has killed unknown amount of soldiers and used artillery on Armenia soil. The Azerbaijan army has even attacked a Russian FSB van in the border region. So, this here shows how volatile things are.

In addition to the acts and skirmishes between Azerbaijan and Armenia. While the Kyrgyzstan’s border force has attacked the Tajikistan as well. That’s two more conflicts involving the member states of the CSTO.

The Armenian state has already invoked or plans to invoke the article of the pact, which says the other member state has to help them out in a conflict. This means the fellow alliance members has to come to Armenia with military aide.

The question here now will be… has Russia or Belarus any real army capacity to offer? Will, the Russians depleted armies and stretched manpower be able to help Armenia in the hour of need?

There is already talk of the very independent Armenia not helping in the war in Ukraine. That the Russians might be reluctant to help them now. Since, the Russian would have needed support, both equipment and brigades in the war in Ukraine. However, there has only been help and support from Minsk.

Tajikistan has offered equipment and ammunition to the Russians for the war in Ukraine. So, that’s another ball-game.

We will see who Moscow will come to support. This is their alliance and counter-pact to the NATO. So, it has to prove it’s value now, as the members are now hurt and their sovereignty is hit by neighbours, which is what Moscow is doing to Kyiv. However, Moscow can be a hypocrite about that, as long as that fits the interests of Kremlin or His Excellency, Putin.

This will surely be a test for the Russian alliance, the CSTO. That is under fire right now. The border skirmishes and clashes are only showing how the Member States needs support. That Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan is attacking their neighbours. There is certainly a lot at play here.

We just have to see how the Kremlin moves now. They have to show their worth. In the moment and time, when their own forces and armies aren’t in a good place either. As the Ukrainian advances are hitting everywhere. The launched Special Operation in Ukraine is certainly backfiring and we can wonder if they have enough resources to boost their allies of the CSTO. Peace.

Burma: Myanmar Ethnic Rohingya Human Rights Organization Malaysia (MERHROM) – MERHROM requests the Malaysian Government and UNHCR to disscuss further on the Management of Refugees in the Country (08.09.2022)

Pakistan: Veterans of Pakistan (VOP) – Press Release (03.09.2022)

Philippines: Marcos Jr. – All sugar isn’t sweet… Part II

BOC in Subic intercepted a cargo vessel from Thailand loaded with 7,000 metric tons or some 140,000 bags of sugar. The move comes after Pres. Marcos ordered the pursuit of smuggled sugar in the country amid its soaring prices” (ABS-CBN News, 18.08.2022).

Medalla: I have heard from Sec. Balisacan, they are now close to arriving at an agreement that food processing companies will be allowed to import at least half of their sugar needs. As you reduce demand from food processors, because they are allowed to import, this will increase supply to all other users, and hopefully reduce sugar prices” (ABS-CBN News, 18.08.2022).

In Manilla and in the Office of the President there is huge crisis surrounding sugar. The basic commodity used by industry and by ordinary consumers I.E. the citizen. There has already been outrage and been a public outcry over the Sugar Order No. 4 and the powers given to the former Department of Agriculture Undersecretary Leocardio S. Sebastian. It took only a months time from the appointment of him to the erratic scandal, which the whole administration is going through.

The 300,000 metric tons of sugar in the Sugar Order No. 4 was cancelled, but foreign imported sugar is already arriving in the ports. That’s why just this week there are reports for a shortage. Soda companies are claiming they lack sugar for the production. This being Coca-Cola Company and PepsiCo. These are both popular soft-drinks who lacks sugar for their production.

While there is new proposals of a new Sugar Order only importing 150,000 tons of Sugar by October. While the government claims to be raiding warehouses and hoarders of sugar in the Republic. In such a way to curb the rising prices and the “lack” of Sugar in the market-place. That’s two very different approaches. Which is just very odd…

Because, if the nation has run out of sugar and has nothing on the market. How can the government go and say there hoarders of it? This means the Sugar mills and the owners of the distilleries are lying about the production and stockpiling it. While the prices are soaring in the ”lack” of it. While the government still insist to import and not use the stockpiled products. Since it still proposes to use the imported sugar.

It doesn’t help that the Office of the President has promised an investigation into the matter. More of the Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA) members has resigned. While later the President plans to revise the body and it’s work.

On top of this is reported as well: “House Minority Leader Marcelino Libanan files House Resolution 259 seeking a congressional inquiry into the Sugar Regulatory Administration’s ‘illegal’ order to import 300,000 metric tons of sugar” (CNN Philippines, 17.08.2022).

President Marcos Jr. who is not only the President, but also the head of the Department of Agriculture. This all fall onto him and his burden to carry. His signature of the first Sugar Order Volume 4 is there. He did discuss the Sugar Industry as a part in a meeting on the 1st of August ahead of the Sugar Order Volume 4, which was published on the 9th August 2022. That’s why everything that has transpired since then has been in connection with this.

The scandal isn’t looking any better by the day. It is only looking incompetent and lacking of focus. Since there are certain lacks of quality refined sugar for certain industries. While the prices and inflation are souring as well. That’s because of the needs and the lack of produced sugar. Even if the Department and such says there are. The producers wouldn’t say it would lack. Even if the farmers and the millers says there enough for everyone.

This is just a whole mess and so early in the Presidency. Surely, the President knows this is looking badly on him. Not only the Sugar Order Vol. 4, but the shortage and the industry as a whole. This is all hurting him and his only beginning. There is a reason why it seems out of control and without a well thought out plan. Since, they are only making patch-work and not a full sort of programme from the farmer to the producers or to the consumer. It is just what is needed to avoid one crisis and stagnate another one.

President Marcos Jr. has gotten into a pickle by taking the two roles at once. Instead of growing into the Presidency and showing his character as a leader. He wanted to a big man from the on-set. The burden and the possible work-load seem enormous. Might be prestigious to be both at the same time. However, this scandal shows it’s too much and to many details.

That’s why the Department of Agriculture would be better served with a professional and also another person. Who can follow Presidential Orders and such, but be in it day-to-day. Because, right now… it’s not only a scandal, but a hectic mess. The sort of business and government crisis, which could have been avoided. There is enough people knowing what is going on and who can have the head in the game. However, the President doesn’t seem up to it.

He just wants the glory, the titles and the power, which all the offices he resides in. Nevertheless, with all power, comes responsibility. That responsibility seem to much on him. He might mean well and think he has a purpose. Though the sugar and the sweetener it is… has exposed him and his lack of touch.

This is just bitter and not sweet. Marcos Jr. is just showing inept to do all of this and his Executive Secretary in the Office of the President cannot save him either. This is all on him and even if tries to deflect blame on everyone else. He is the head, not only of state, but of the Department too. The SRA is getting reorganized and there is a supposed investigation in the works.

However, what all of this showed is that he cannot carry this alone. The President cannot manage or have the ability face it all. There is to many stakeholders, priorities and needs to sufficiently get it done. That’s why his failing and somehow his not looking stronger, but looking incompetent.

Ferdinand “BongBong” Marcos Junior would be better off. He would be better of in the Malacañang Palace and being a full-time President. It looks like it would serve him much better and maybe he could have come with some orders from on high in the time of need. Instead his in a sea of trouble in a Department of Agriculture and doesn’t seem to know the way out. Peace.

Burma: National Unity Government (NUG) – Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Statement on the visit of the Special Envoy of the UN Secretary-General on Myanmar (16.08.2022)

Philippines: Foundation for Economic Freedom, INC. – FEF Statement on Taming Sugar Prices and Inflation (16.08.2022)

Afghanistan: Afghan Woman Coalition for Change (AWCC) – Seven Actions to Restore Justice in Afghanistan (15.08.2022)

Philippines: National Citizens’ Movement for Free Elections (NAMFREL) – NAMFREL urges Congress to rethink the voter registration process (15.08.2022)

Philippines: President Marcos Jr. – All sugar isn’t sweet…

This week has been terrible for the President Ferdinand “BongBong” Marcos Jr. who has been caught into a web of scandal. This is involving the second office his holding, which is as the Secretary of the Department of Agriculture. That Marcos Jr. decided to be both the Head of State and the Minister of Agriculture has already backfired. Because, his now parts of or given powers to someone underneath him, which happens to be the Undersecretary of the Department of Agriculture.

This week has proven that the President shouldn’t hold two offices at the same time, but would be better to have appointed a trusted a fellow to run it. Since, the mismanagement has come this quickly. It didn’t take longer to a scandal rocking him and now the turns of trying to shift the blames start.

We know today that the Undersecretary has resigned and apologised for the Sugar Order Volume 4, but the investigation is just launched. Therefore, the whole entirety will unfold. The signatures and the whole deal. As it started to it finished. We can really wonder what went down between the release of the Sugar Order Vol. 4 and the Meeting which the President presided over. That was only 8 days between and something has to be said there. They don’t just order 300,000 metric tons of sugar on a whim. There is some sort of planning, before execution and making the measures in the Sugar Regulatory Administration.

That’s why I have made this time of what has dripped out so far…

On the 15th July 2022 Executive Secretary Victor Rodriguez on behalf of the President sent out a Memorandum giving Undersecretary of Agriculture, Leocardio S. Sebastian vast power within the Department of Agriculture. Not only the as the Chief of Staff of the Department, but many other powers invested in him. That Memorandum was from the Executive Secretary of the Office of the President and gave the Undersecretary his clear role.

1st August 2022:

NEWS UPDATE: President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. presides a meeting as the secretary of the Department of Agriculture to discuss the course of actions that the department will take for the sugar and coconut industry” (PTVph, 01.08.2022).

9th August 2022:

The Sugar Regulatory Administration published Sugar Order Volume 4: “Second Sugar Import Program for Crop Year 2021-2022, which states the importation of 300,000 metric tons of sugar. The sugar was supposed to designated partly half of it to industrial users and the other half to the traders.

11th August 2022:

Undersecretary of Agriculture Leocardio S. Sebastian sends his resignation letter to President Marcos Jr. and apologises for the Sugar Order Volume 4. While also resigning from the post, which he only was appointed to in July.

12th August 2022:

“Heads are going to roll” following an investigation over the supposed “unauthorized” signing of a document directing the importation of 300,000 metric tons of sugar, Press Secretary Trixie Cruz-Angeles emphasized on Thursday. “An investigation is ongoing to determine whether any act that would cause the President to lose trust and confidence in his officials can be found or if there is malice or negligence involved. In such a case, if such findings are made, then the only determination left will be how many heads are going to roll,” Cruz-Angeles said in a press briefing. Angeles described as “illegal” Sugar Order No. 4 issued by the Sugar Regulatory Administration, which supposedly directs the importation of 300,000 metric tons of sugar. “The Chairman of the Sugar Regulatory Board is President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. As such, the chairman sets the date of any meetings or convening of the Sugar Regulatory Board and its agenda. No such meeting was authorized by the President or such a resolution likewise, was not authorized,” said Cruz-Angeles” (Alaine Allanigue – ‘Heads to roll over ‘unauthorized’ importation of 300,000 MT of sugar’ 12.08.2022, Philippine Information Agency – PIA).

We don’t know yet the whole scope of this, but the things are twisted together. There are missing pieces and more has to be unleashed on the masses. This here sugar scandal came early. It was only barely month after the Executive Secretary wrote the memorandum giving the Undersecretary vast powers to the Sugar purchase or imports was in order. That is saying something and the President has also signed on the Sugar Order Vol. 4. So, he had to knew and cannot act totally oblivious. The man cannot be that docile and not know what is going on in his department. That is something I have a hard time to believe.

Time will tell, but what we do know is that all sugar isn’t sweet. Certainly Marcos Jr. should be more careful ahead and he should reconsider the ability to both be the head of state and a secretary over a Department. Yes, he wants to do so show that he cares and priorities the sector. However, it would be better to craft legislation and policy changes as President. Than trying to control this, as well, as being the President. That seems to much to ask…

The investigation will now buy everyone time, but the truth will come out. This happen in such a short window and early in the administration. So, it is not like everyone has settled in or gotten used to the new offices. Therefore, this should be brief and quick. As parts of the paperwork is already online. The President can also be implicated, because he sat in the meeting on the 1st August and on the 9th August the Sugar Order Vol. 4 was published. An inquiry will even dig deeper and things tend to connect together. Peace.

Burma: National Unity Government (NUG) – Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Statement on the outcomes of the 55th ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting (09.08.2022)