South Sudan: Odinga can’t run on vibes in Juba

This weekend has showed that Special Envoy and the man of the Hour, Raila Odinga wasn’t it in Kenya. As he was given a role and a position to mediate in South Sudan. He got the Red Carpet treatment and the old statesman protocol when arriving. However, it went dark pretty quick, as the Kenyan politician couldn’t get what he requested from His Excellency, President Salva Kiir Mayardit.

J1 or Kiir wasn’t interested in the talks or even entertaining it at this very time. So, at the moment the request and the wish for Odinga to meet the house-arrested Dr. Riek Machar went nowhere. That meant after meeting Kiir the Kenyan politician just went to his hotel and did squat. As he was destined to fly from Juba to Kampala to hold talks with President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni on the matter again.

Alas, the two main leaders and their needs for talks are stalled, as the Commander-in-Chief and the ones controlling the state instruments are holding the other one incarcerated. Kiir are deciding the fate of Machar at the moment. Meanwhile, his sending Odinga on a fishing expedition with no end in sight.

Museveni is a guarantor of the shaky R-ARCSS, but also a partner of Kiir. They are both invested in keeping Kiir in Office and keeping the regime intact. That’s why the UPDF has a Security Agreement and the UPDF is on the front-lines on behalf of the J1. This is why the UPDF is used as a tool of oppression and tyranny. It is giving power and a life-line to Kiir. Which is more powerful than anything else he possess at the moment.

IGAD sending Odinga is a failed enterprise. Odinga wasn’t fit for this. It is just shown, as Kiir dismissed his ideas and even the ability to speak to Machar. That means Kiir doesn’t see him as an equal or someone who would serve him. That’s why Odinga was sent packing.

It is just really telling how quickly and how things has been messaged after the fact. The whole travels of Odinga could just be a publicity stunt. A way of showing the world that Kiir is talking and letting the neighbours try to resolve the matter. However, the case is just pending and the big-men not letting go.

This here shows that the scorn and battle-harden men won’t go off easy. Odinga sold himself here and didn’t even do the basics. He wasn’t even able to talk to the ones in question. That means his whole trip was a waste of time. Unless, he really wanted to spend time outside of Kenya. Nevertheless, that became really brief.

Odinga shouldn’t be hopeful in a return or that he has to act with haste. There is little given and less are paid in respects here. Right now… he is just acting in folly and getting paid to spend time in hotels. His not building a mediation or a report worth mentioning, as he couldn’t even get to navigate or allowed to meet the important stakeholders. The conflict is in the open and the Special Envoy was silenced.

Just imagined that he travelled to Juba and couldn’t get to see FVP Machar. That’s a compelling case and a story. In addition, that Kiir sent him to Museveni. Just to waste him more time on the matter. Odinga won’t win here either. His being toyed around with and we can all see it coming. Peace.

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South Sudan: Ceasefire & Transitional Security Arrangements Monitoring & Verification Mechanism (CTSMVM) – Press Statement from CTSAMVM on the Current Situation in the Republic of South Sudan (29.03.2025)

South Sudan: Press Statement by the Minister of Information, Communication Technology and Postal Services and Spokesperson of the Government on Current Political and Security Developments in the County (28.03.2025)

South Sudan: Intrepid South Sudan – Kenya’s Intervention in the Unfortunate Escalating Crisis (28.03.2025)

RDC: Ministere des Finances – Effectivite de l’Augmentation des Remunerations des Elements des FARDC et de la PNC (27.03.2025)

South Sudan: United People’s Alliance (UPA) – Press Statement (27.03.2025)

Sudan: The SAF liberated Khartoum from RSF as it fled from the capital

“Sudan’s army chief, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, declared Khartoum state “liberated” from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on Wednesday, shortly after landing at the capital’s international airport for the first time in two years” (Sudan Tribune, 26.03.2025).

“Today, March 26, marks a significant victory nearly two years since the devastating war began in Sudan. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have successfully reclaimed control over the capital city, Khartoum, dealing a decisive blow to the remnants of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). After months of terrorizing civilians, looting, and committing heinous atrocities, the RSF’s hold over the city has crumbled. Their fighters, no longer able to withstand the might and determination of the SAF, have fled in disarray. This liberation stands as a testament to the resilience of the Sudanese people and their unwavering commitment to restoring peace and sovereignty. The liberation of Khartoum from RSF control is not just a military triumph but a significant step toward rebuilding a nation scarred by the merciless aggression of this militia” (Abdelmagid Kibir, 27.03.2025).

The capital Khartoum is now returned back to the SAF. The city is now in the hands of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). That means the power and control of the capital is now ruled by Gen. Al-Burhan. This is a failure of the Rapid Support Force (RSF) and Gen. Hemeti who is now losing in this war.

Hemeti and his RSF is now retreating. The warfare and historical Janjaweed are now caught in the mix. They are losing territories and control, as they are now being strategically outplayed by the SAF.

The ones celebrating is rightfully doing it so. The SAF is better than the RSF. However, these are two military entities that has blood on their hands. They are not voices of the people or the elected leadership of it. The SAF and RSF are both military entities that doesn’t had the wish to hand over power to a civilian government. This is why they have participated in coup d’etat’s and done so to stop a transition to a civilian government.

This has been a prolonged conflict and been griding for months. The SAF are now capable and wiser in the methods to stop the RSF from keeping territories. The RSF have been able and was looking like the victor, as the SAF was governing the nation from Port Sudan. Therefore, Hemeti looked like he would be able and have enough para-military troops to conquer the SAF. However, his now retreating and for a reason.

The SAF is now capable and able to overcome the troubles of the RSF. Khartoum is significant and it felt like that the moment they took the Republican Palace in Khartoum. Now they have captured the whole city… and that’s a major loss of the RSF. The militia is now undermined and will go back to trenches in Darfur.

The Janjaweed will continue to fight in Darfur and elsewhere. They will go back to the para-military means and use their knowledge of these regions to compete with the SAF. It is not like the RSF have put up the “white flag” or totally surrendering. It is just restructuring and reestablishing itself in other parts of the Republic.

The war in Sudan isn’t over. Still not the time to rebuild or time to make a difference. SAF aren’t revolutionary and neither is the RSF. The revolutionary and the ones who had hope in the Generals. Those shouldn’t have faith in Al-Burhan. The General is in it for his own personal gains. Therefore, there is more work to be done, but another evil General is losing more and that is Gen. Hemeti.

Al-Burhan and Hemeti are both wrong in this. They have torn the nation apart for their pockets. They are fighting for supremacy and for control. That’s why they are fighting this war. These Generals aren’t fighting for the Revolutionary Committees or Resistance Committees, as the FFC and others has left these one behind. They were outwitted by the army commanders before. Therefore, whoever goes into negotiations and talks with Al-Burhan should know it could be detrimental for their future. As they are sealing it and entrusting in someone who can easily wage war again.

That’s why the liberation of Sudan isn’t over. The RSF is losing, but everything isn’t free. The army still has power… and they haven’t let it go. That’s why things are the way they are. Sudanese people aren’t free. They have just one warlord or another warlord in office. That’s the game here and it’s rigged. Peace.

South Sudan: Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (IO) – SPLM-(IO) – On the unlawful Arrest and Detention of H.E. Dr. Riek Machar Teny (27.03.2025)

South Sudan: Integrity South Sudan – Integrity South Sudan is calling urges the Government of South Sudan and parties to the R-ARCSS to prioritize political dialogue over the enforcement of peace (27.03.2025)