Cameroon: FAO warns about food insecurity in the anglophone region and in the far-north

In Cameroon, as the Ghost President Biya is more preoccupied with sending arms and soldiers to the Anglophone regions of the North-West and South West Regions, also continuing trouble of insurgency of the far-North of the Republic.

With the trouble that has been going-on for a long while. What is really special about the FAO report is that its not projecting the coming months, but analysing only the previous months. Usually, they are projecting what is coming it the up-coming seasons too. Therefore, there are substantial lack of data for FAO, if not they have not been allowed to show this. That is just the way I see it, as I have seen plenty of FAO reports and this was lacking.

Here is the vital things from it:

In the North-West and South-West regions, harvests (maize, plantain and yams) are ongoing, however roadblocks put in place by successions groups are disrupting trade, causing further price increases and hindering the delivery of assistance. Moreover, the lack of access or abandonment of fields is likely to result in the third consecutive below average season. In the Far North, difficult road access is challenging the delivery of assistance to vulnerable people and insecurity has hindered the preparation of the main agricultural season. Cattle rustling during attacks by Boko Haram are frequent, depriving owners of a significant source of income. Moreover, increasing infestation of fall army worm is likely to affect maize production” (FAO . Cameroon, October 2019).

We can clearly see the troubles ahead for these regions. As there are no remedy and only more stressing factors remaining. There isn’t the security or the promise of ordinary production or farming in these regions. But that is not weird either, considering the implications and the ones fleeing from armed soldiers coming their way. Therefore, the stress level might only get worse and the lack of possible support from the UN agencies, might even make it worse too. Since, the state is only creating more suffering and lack of safety.

That is why this a warning and a sign of what might happen. This is not a sign of strength or remedy. It is a sign of worsening food security in the midst of continues battles from the state army. Peace.

Kenya Tea Development Agency: KTDA Position Statement (24.10.2019)

Brexit: A Shoddy Impact Assessment of the new Withdrawal Agreement Bill…

This was really inspired and not well thought out of, the Department of Exiting the European Union and the rest of the Tories. Really didn’t care much for the estimates of the costs, nor the consequences in concerns of their amended Bill to Parliament. Prime Minister Boris Johnson wants to just pursuit the ending without doing the proper work. This is shoddy, disrespectful work, which he wanted to be over within 3 days or so. Within the parameter of when he wanted to suspend the Parliament.

So, his acts and his vision is blurry, as the whole law and amendments of it. Is substantial and needs time to be addressed properly, that is if, the Brexit process and withdrawal of membership has consequences. Which it does, but apparently it is more important to leave, than to know why your leaving.

I have today looked through the Impact Assessment Report on the bill, which in itself is a sad report. A disgraceful attempt of justification and proving the possible outcomes of the withdrawal. Apparently, that didn’t matter, because my quotes are very striking. Take a look!

There could be costs to business associated with the arrangements in the Northern Ireland/Ireland Protocol. But these are inherently uncertain in their nature and intensity, as such, these costs have not been quantified” (Impact Assessment, 2019).

Customs:

Businesses in Great Britain and Northern Ireland may face familiarisation costs in adapting to the new customs processes, such as the requirements for customs declarations, in particular if they have not undertaken such processes before” (Impact Assessment, 2019).

This isn’t rocket science and will cost both the state and the businesses. It will cost both time and money, to fill forms and secure the movement accordingly to the regulations on both sides of the customs.

VAT:

Northern Ireland will be required to align with certain EU VAT and excise rules. VAT collected in Northern Ireland will be retained by the UK. Specific practical arrangements will be the subject of discussions within the Joint Committee, and it is not therefore possible to assess costs or benefits at this stage” (Impact Assessment, 2019).

The taxation on goods will be an issue and how its issued. This will add prices possibly on the consumer and also on the businesses. But the HM Government don’t know to what extent and how to operate. That is clearly a smooth transition.

Tariffs:

No tariffs will be paid on goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland unless they are deemed to be at risk of entering the EU. The appropriate UK tariff will be paid on goods moving from outside the UK or EU to Northern Ireland unless they are deemed to be at risk of entering the EU. The Joint Committee will agree the criteria to be used in determining whether goods are not considered to be at risk of entering the EU” (Impact Assessment, 2019).

So, there will certain cost of moving goods into the EU as per the tariffs stipulated by the Joint Committee. This means, the UK-EU on accord will find the fitted prices on movement of goods form the UK into EU. That means, the goods moving across the borders will cost more, than today, as there is no-tariff on lots of products crossing the borders at this very moment.

Agri-Foods from GB to NI:

Agri-food goods moving from Great Britain into Northern Ireland would need to be notified to the relevant authorities before entering Northern Ireland and would be subject to checks including identity, documentary and physical checks by UK authorities as required by the relevant EU rules. These processes would introduce additional costs, both from one-offfamiliarisation and ongoing compliance, to businesses compared to current arrangements” (Impact Assessment, 2019).

This will surely cost and make it more time consuming. Not making it easy or smooth either. Surely, all of this is hardening the trade of this to NI.

Manufactured goods from GB to NI:

To ensure regulatory compliance, businesses in Great Britain selling to Northern Ireland may incur additional costs from product testing and corresponding administrative processes. The nature of the costs will depend on the product-specific requirements in EU law and on a business’s current approach to meeting these requirements. These costs may be passed through to businesses in Northern Ireland” (Impact Assessment, 2019).

Here the costs will be put on the consumer in Northern Ireland for the goods coming from Great Britain. The manufactured goods will not be cheaper, but more time consuming to get and has to follow other protocols, than the ones coming from Ireland/EU. This means for the NI it will be more profitable to get EU goods, than GB goods, because of the cost. That is simple calculation.

We can all see, that the Withdrawal Agreement and new legal text makes business, movement of goods and borders to the Northern Ireland more harder. That without swimming into the legal text nor the statutes of the Withdrawal Agreement. Because, this is just the mere chip-shape of the impact assessment of it all.

The whole thing is lazy and that makes me grim. Because, this shows the people releasing it. Didn’t do their job and show the real estimates nor the possible costs of doing business. Only that it might cost more, which it most likely will do, because you have more things to do before doing business. Peace.

Reference:

European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill – Impact Assessment, 21.10.2019

The Hoes of 2015 comes to haunt the NRM in 2021!

The distribution of hoes to the communities as promised by President Museveni has divided members of Parliament with sections of the legislators saying it will cost them votes in 2021” (NBS Television 18.10.2019).

On the 20th November 2015 before the General Election and within the campaign period, the President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni ordered the Prime Minister and his office to purchase 18 million hoes to 6 million households. With the estimate of 44,700,000 population in the republic and the Uganda Bureau of Statistics Household Survey of 2016/17 said the average amount of people a household was about 5. This means statistically, that there are about 8,940,000 households. This is mere numbers and not the whole package, but it gives you feeling of how many.

Therefore, when the MPs are complaining, the OPM have surely not bought all the promised 18 million hoes. Because, that mean most of them would have been covered, just nearly 3 million household without any. However, there must be short-fall in the amount, as the state cannot deliver to enough regions or district to matter. That is why the MPs are afraid of this.

I can ask like Jajja did in November 2015: “What happened?”.

Because, that this story continues to haunt us in 2019. On the stages and preparations for rallies in 2020 for the General Election in 2021. Surely, this is pure fiction, but sadly our reality. As the Devine powers doesn’t want things to work or succeed. It is a repetition of the mediocre and lazy, lackluster approach to governing. Which is staple with the National Resistance Movement. The party that promise middle-income status and steady progress. But cannot even drop some promised tool on the population.

Dr. Ruhakana Rugunda has had 4 years to deliver 18 millions hoes and still hasn’t finished the task. There been four budgets and four planning stages. Still, it seems like it needs a fifth to get to the finish line. Even with this, there will not hoes for every household nor all families who needs them. As the statistics are not counting the ones living single, the one who has their left the nest and so-on. Therefore, the statistics is lying a bit and just giving a feeling of the state of affairs.

The President and PM has failed. They can come with arguments, but we should ask them: “What Happened?”. Peace.

Opinion: Have the Jubilee forgotten Mumias?

In the recent time, not so long ago, the Mumias Sugar Limited was involved in not only spending big on political campaigns in 2017, but they also got big payouts with funds reviving the company that same year in 2017. Now two years after the previous elections, the KCB Bank put the company in receivership. This means the funds are insolvent and they struggle to raise enough funds to keep it afloat. That means the owners like Evans Kidero, Amos Wako and Henry Rotrich are struggling to keep it alive.

Surely, they didn’t see this coming. In 2000 and in 2001, the turnover records was set for the company. Since then the privatization and the other measures done, has clearly made the company volatile, as well as the opening of the boarders for more sugar imports. This must have all hurt the turnover, the profits and the margins of the company. Like back in 2008 alone, the company was behind over 50% sugar production in the Republic. That means and shows the importance of Mumias and its operations in Kenya.

Therefore, when it falls as hard it does today. It shows that its left behind. That the business-model, the strategic enterprise isn’t working. Maybe even, that the Jubilee haven’t seen it as an priority post-2017 Elections. We know the importance of it, as it is reported that professor Tom Ojienda has also obtained and solicited illegal funds from this company. That is why we know its vital place in the political sphere and in the republic as whole. The elite has been eating of the company and enjoyed it services, to a point that its crashing.

The millers, the sugar-farmers and the workers are the losers, as the receivership means the bank will runs the operations, until they possibly find a buyer. Someone buying its stake, since the company lacks funds to operate properly. This means, the investors and buyers needs to be loaded, to be able to fill the gaps of financial input, which is clearly needed. That is ironic, knowing how many campaigns, how much the company has gotten favours and how it has high-ranking officials whose had shares in the company.

The income statement on FT says it all: Year on year Mumias Sugar Company Ltd’s revenues fell -34.06% from 2.09bn to 1.38bn. This along with an increase in the cost of goods sold expense has contributed to a reduction in net income from a loss of 6.77bn to a larger loss of 15.14bn”. This shows how its burning funds and not earning at this point.

We can wonder if the Jubilee will bail on this one or if they are planning ahead for 2022 and want the support of Kakamega. This would be a vital investment, not only in the sugar business, but in the region. As they would save a big business, which has been the biggest producer and miller on the market. This is if the Jubilee cares, but if they are reckless, than they let it go. But then expect them to pay a price. As they are destroying an old institution, business and former state owned enterprise, which is now in the mercy of Kenya Commercial Bank (KCB).

This is not a good look. So my question is, have the Jubilee forgotten this company and its role in society? Or do they think there is someone else’s turn to have that place?

I don’t know, but this is shady, letting a company like this fall and one, which process sugar from the farmers. They will be limbo and need to supply other millers, since this one cannot sustain itself and needs new investments to cover the losses. In the end, the sugar-farmers are the losers. Peace.

KCB Bank Kenya Statement on Mumias Sugar Ltd. (24.09.2019)

Brexit: Ministre de l’Agriculture et de l’Alimentation – Communique de Presse – Pache: a Helsinki, Didier Guallaume et les Ministeres europeens reaffirment la femete de l’UE pour une gestion concertee et solidaire des consequences d’un Brexit sans accord (23.09.2019)

Karamoja is running into a possible food crisis, but Mzee says its green!

Greetings. These pictures were taken at Kobebe dam, in Karamoja, as I waited for H.E Uhuru Kenyatta. I was at Latitude 2° North & 48 minutes (2°48 N). You can see how green it is!! The temperature, at that moment, was 22° celsius, very pleasant. The myth that Karamoja is dry is only perpetuated by those that do not know the opportunities available. Yes, Karamoja gets rain for fewer months than in the South of Uganda” (Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, 12.09.2019).

Well, its one of those days. The President shouldn’t demystify the area, but govern it properly. As there are already warning signs in concern of the food security in the region of Karamoja in August 2019. Therefore, the President should have warned about this and worked with the right authorities to secure the public. Instead, his busy with a photo-op and spreading his good news before yet another high ranking meeting with foreign dignitaries.

Let me show first, what IPC 3 means and also what the FAO warns about. Let’s take a look.

FEWS Net IPC 3 meaning:

PHASE 3 Crisis. Households either:

– Have food consumption gaps that are reflected by high or above-usual acute malnutrition;

OR

– Are marginally able to meet minimum food needs but only by depleting essential livelihood assets or through crisis-coping strategies” (FEWS NET – ‘Integrated Phase Classification’).

FAO Food Security Outlook:

In Karamoja, a typically high sorghum prices and below-average firewood-to sorghum terms of trade continue to significantly limit household food access and maintain above-average acute malnutrition prevalence. Due to a poor start of the rainfall season and reduced area planted, delayed harvests will gradually begin in September and sorghum production is expected to range from 20 to 40 percent below average on the district level. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to persist through September and into October. As harvesting progresses, food security will gradually improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through January” (FAO, 30.08.2019).

So, when the President speaks of the green land of Karamoja, his not concerned or thinking about the public. As they suffer malnutrition and lacking production of sorghum in the region. This should worry a President and he should think of the public there. Instead, his blowing praises on green fields and putting up tents to meet another head of state.

This shows that the President isn’t there to act upon the warned trouble ahead. The state should act upon the problematic food security. It should create and make arrangement to secure the public get enough food, the rising malnutrition shows signs of maladministration.

Certainly, the President doesn’t want to hear that, as his all about Steady Progress, but this problem in Karamoja is prevalent and repetitive. Its not like this haven’t happen in the region before, it has and is something the NRM and President could have acted upon. That is if he cares, alas, he don’t. His had 33 years to do something and ensure food security.

This is because of the reduced area planted with crops/cereals in the region and also the delayed harvest, also a poor rainfall in the season. All of these things should worry anyone, but the President is praising green grass. So we better let him be and praise his wisdom. Because, people is starving since they believe in myths. Peace.

Brexit: Lord Teverson letter to Secretary Villers MP – Defra ‘no-deal’ Brexit preparation (04.09.2019)

 

Somalia: UN warns of lowest cereal production since 2011 (02.09.2019)