RDC: Mouvement du 23 Mars (M23) – Update of November 13th, 2023 (13.11.2023)

South Sudan: Where there is smoke, there is fire…

I am receiving concrete information that the #South_Sudan People’s Defense Forces and NSS denials are a lie. Heavy army deployment in and around Juba since Friday night is indeed intended to prevent a coup (probably planned by Akol Koor). More than 20 officers have been arrested” (Patrick Heinisch, 12.11.2023).

Well, everything isn’t well in Juba, South Sudan. The President for Life, Salva Kiir Mayardit isn’t as beloved or popular as he makes himself out to be. The militarism of politics and usage of force to get ahead has caused all of this. While the “Transitional” period and lack of implementation of R-ARCSS is haunting the ruling elite. A ruling elite, which is living on a premiss and a belief that they are beholden to stay in power indefinitely.

A President ruling on decree and without a popular vote is bound to fall eventually. Sooner or later some up-start and wise-guy within the armed ranks will cause a mutiny and get enough commanders on his side. As they are tired, hungry and reckless about the future. In the belief of a new order and a new leadership. Because, the current one isn’t serving anyone, but itself… and using past heroics to defend its existence.

Here is how they described what happened over the weekend:

Although the general security situation was normal in the capital Juba, security forces could be seen early morning deployed around checkpoints, Juba Airport and the president’s residence, causing tensions among residents of Juba. Lul described the reports of a coup attempt as unfounded allegations. “Those who came up with claims of an attempted coup in Juba are terrible liars, and those are enemies of peace who want to cause panic among the population. If there had been an attempted coup, things could not have become normal like they are now in Juba. Who are the coup plotters, if I may ask them?” Lul said. “Things are now normal in Juba and this is not how things work after an attempt coup. I want to reassure the public that those are lies. The correct version of the story is that we have observed an increased cases of robberies at night. So what we did was a show of force to stop criminals from committing crimes in different residential areas,” he added” (Radio Tamazuj – ‘South Sudan army debunks reports of coup attempt’ 11.11.2023).

We can wonder what happened here over the weekend. Because, something isn’t adding up. Especially, if the reports of arrests and a possible culprit. Then there might have been a mutiny and a failed coup d’etat attempt, as the President was away on a Summit in the Middle East. That would seem possible, because others has tried to do this while the Head of State is abroad. It is known tactic and isn’t a new one.

The culprits are thinking the waters are silent and weakened, as the Head is gone and they can easier access and takeover the vital institutions. They can swiftly take control of checkpoints, military barracks and government institutions within a few hours. Because, the Presidential Guards and others are on duty abroad with the President.

We shouldn’t be shocked if someone wanted to pull this off. As the President has imposed himself for over a decade and yet to give any succession or plan to leave office. He even plans for the election and to legitimize his further reign. That’s why you know there will be disgruntled officers, army commanders and soldiers within the ranks. As they only see a chosen elite and no one else is able to get a better life.

That’s what should worry Kiir and his allies. The prolonged agony will only galvanize others further. If there was a failed coup this weekend. That should be a memo that the SPLM-IG and the other stakeholders in the R-ARCSS and R-TGoNU needs to work fast. They need to reform and show service delivery to the public. If not… they can easily be here again and next time someone could succeed. Peace.

Ethiopia: Is TIRA/TDF planning to attack Fano now?

Look, Lord, help.
★ If there is no threat to the safety and existence of the people of Tigray, there will be no reason for us to carry arms if the armed forces outside the defense force and the invading forces leave Tigray.
★ Although efforts were made by the leaders of the Amhara region to facilitate the process of the Pretoria agreement, we were forced to stop because the Pretoria agreement itself has started to be evaluated and negotiated.
★ It is not acceptable to all parties who are trying to prevent the implementation of the Pretoria Peace Agreement, we will fight against them”
(Eritrean Press, 12.11.2023).

The Tigray Interim Regional Administration (TIRA) which has been active and enacted as a part of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) barely a year ago. There is now speculations that the Tigray Defence Force (TDF), the force that hasn’t been incorporated into the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) or left their weapons behind. These can now get redeployed and ready for more conflict.

That’s the report here as they want to ensure the Tigray region is fully liberated. Because, the ENDF haven’t been able to get rid of the Eritrean Defence Force (EDF) or the Amhara (FANO) in Western Tigray. Therefore, the TDF are possibly getting back into warfare and joining the ENDF, which happens to be in an open conflict with FANO/Amhara Popular Front (APF) in the Amhara region.

With this in mind, the peace agreement sort of turns into a war-pact, as former adversary of Addis Ababa turns their guns on Gonder and Bahir Dar. That would be the ultimate revenge of Mekelle at this point. However, by the reports for now… it is more of taking back territories that the invading forces never left and has annexed. The same territories that the Prime Minister has opened up for a referendum, which would benefit the Amhara region and give them possibly more territories.

This will be the war of Welkait. The continues war over the Tegede, Telemt and Humera. We know after the invasion of Tigray. The Amhara region was quick to claim these territories and say it belong to them. That’s why they displaced thousands of people and ensured the villages go re-settled with Amhara settlers. Therefore, this has been a play for the long-term and now the Tigray plans to return to power there.

While the TIRA can rightfully claim Welkait, the Amhara region has the guns and the ability to stay put. If they was worried or didn’t anticipate this. They would have retreated a long time ago. Since, they know the force of the ENDF and these was the ones who was supposed to takeover after the CoHA. However, that haven’t happened and the TIRA and TDF lost face by signing the agreement. An agreement that haven’t been totally implemented or honoured by all signatories. That’s why there is possibly more conflict and this time the TDF would join the ENDF against Amhara militia and guerrilla fighters. As they are fighting for the Amhara and their own rights. It would be another chapter in changes of alliances and how fickle politics are in Ethiopia.

Under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali, it seems anyone can become an ally as long as they are useful, but the moment they are not following his whims. They can easily become his prey or his enemy, because they didn’t follow his command or his vibe that day. That’s how he operates and this is why so many of his former allies has fallen. It is why there been constant warfare and never silence of the guns.

This here would just spark further bloodshed and cause more harm. The TDF involved in a new conflict and to takeover former territories would only cause more civilian casualties. There won’t be peace and won’t be a better future. There will only be more death. Peace.

Botswana: Ministry of State President – Press Release (10.11.2023)

Sénégal: Leaders Allies du Candidate Ousmane Sonko (LACOS) – Communique (11.11.2023)

RDC: Mouvements Citoyens et Groupes de Pression du Nord-Kivu suite a l’Acte Ignoble Commis a l’Egard d’Un Element des FARDC repondant au nom de Kanyabacuku Kanyove Yusto (11.11.2023)

Uganda: Obwa Kyabazinga bwa Busoga – Press Release (11.11.2023)

Liberia: ECOWAS Commission – ECOWAS Oberserver Mission response to Statement made by Mo Ali (National Campaign Spokesperson of the Unity Party) – (11.11.2023)

Zimbabwe: Tendai Biti – Zimbabwe at a crossroads (11.11.2023)

RDC: Province du Nord-Kivu – Cabinet du Gouvereur – Communique de Presse (11.11.2023)