Ethiopia: Who is the PM trying to convince today?

For the sake of our peace and prosperity, we made the first choice to end the war. There is no such thing as a good war or a bad peace; war is bad regardless of who wins. You kill people and spit out funds. Peace is always desirable. But if something happens that threatens Ethiopia’s existence, sovereignty, and unity, as well as national interests, we fight it. Negotiation is beneficial if these components are protected. Peace is not only the absence of war, but also the supremacy of the rule of law. Any peace talks or negotiations to ensure that law & order are observed are beneficial. We have discussed, agreed, and signed; now we must keep our word by making our promise a reality. We must work hard to avoid problems during the process” – Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali (15.11.2022).

I’m just baffled and wonder what is going on. What is the end-game of the current affairs, which the 2nd November Cessation of Hostilities and the additional modalities of implementation from Nairobi will do. It isn’t like the Prime Minister is clear in his message or are direct about anything. His just doing his steady scheming and speaking in his ordinary fashion.

If I believe in Abiy or trust him… well… I have seen how shady and how they have resolved things earlier in the conflict. So, until I see some goodwill and reports of humanitarian assistance. Stopping air-raids, usage of drones and other means of war. I have a hard time to believe in the consequences of the CoH. That’s just the cynic, I am and with a reason. The man-made famine, the countless of massacres and the injustice serve the Tigray region since the start of the war in November 2020. There are enough reasons and bloodshed to question the ethics or the normative belief of the Tripartite Alliance attacking it.

That’s why another part of his speech or statement to the House of Federation was very interesting, as it is about the disputed Western Tigray and who has the claim over it. This has been disputed and been questioned all along in the conflict and right now the invaders or the Tripartite Alliance is besieging that part of Tigray.

Just read this here:

Concerning Wolkait, the Pretoria agreement is aimed at bringing peace, not at resolving internal border dispute. It will be dealt with in accordance with the laws and regulations of our country. It is said that the areas were taken by force prior to the constitution, but such action should not be repeated today. If it is resolved in accordance with the rule of law, it will benefit Wolkait, as well as the Amhara and Tigray regions” (Abiy, 15.11.2022).

With these words in mind, let us reflect on the Article 48 of the Ethiopian Constitution:

Article 48. State Border Changes

1. All State border disputes shall be settled by agreement of the concerned States. Where the concerned States fail to reach agreement, the House of the Federation shall decide such disputes on the basis of settlement patterns and the wishes of the peoples concerned.

2. The House of Federation shall, within a period of two years, render a nal decision on a dispute submitted to it pursuant to sub-Article 1 of this Article”.

By the words of Abiy he wants the internal dispute to be dealt with by law. Meaning either the Regional State has to negotiate themselves about the disputed territories. In this case, it is an issue between Amhara and Tigray regional states. If you do follow the Constitution on the principals of it. This means the states themselves has to accept or reach an agreement about it. However, if there is an impasse or an unresolved case. Then the House of Federation will decide a settlement instead.

Here we see the juxtaposition and the quagmire it is. Because, the Prosperity Party has all the power in Amhara and in the House of Federation. For Amhara Regional State it’s a blessing to get it into the House of Federation. Because, they are in the majority and will get their way. There is no way possible that the Tigray region will get it’s wishes. This because of the majority rule and the manner of which the current regime is residing. Therefore, to believe a case coming up in the House of Federation will not benefit or be in harmony with the people of Western Tigray. That will only be in favour or in accordance with the wishes of Bahir Dar. Mekelle will loose, if this case or dispute ever get to the House of Federation.

This is why the words of Abiy is interesting. He knows this and that’s why he can play it out like this. His allies and partners in crime in Amhara can get their loot. They can annex and ensure more power by taking land from Tigray. That can be done by a stroke of a pen. This is all they need, because we cannot trust a negotiation between Mekelle and Bahir Dar will get any sort of result. No, that is a dead fish in the water and it will never ever swim.

I don’t know what bridge Abiy is selling, but his surely building a bridge over dry land and not crossing a river. There is more to this and I wonder what. Maybe its just my mistrust after the years of wars and the endless lies. You cannot just be sincere after lying about nearly every aspect of the war. That’s why I am wondering who his catering too and for what ends. Peace.

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